See page 33 for Analyst Certification and Important Disclosures Industry Note Equity Strategy 1MVUPOPNZÁÁ#VZJOHÁ-VYVSZ Á&YQMBJOJOHÁ(MPCBMÁ*NCBMBODFT October 16, 2005 SUMMARY ➤ The World is dividing into two blocs - the Plutonomy and the rest. The U.S., UK, and Canada are the key Plutonomies - economies powered by the wealthy. Continental Europe (ex-Italy) and Japan are in the egalitarian bloc. Ajay Kapur, CFA ➤ Equity risk premium embedded in “global imbalances” are unwarranted. In +1-212-816-4813 plutonomies the rich absorb a disproportionate chunk of the economy and have Global
[email protected] a massive impact on reported aggregate numbers like savings rates, current account deficits, consumption levels, etc. This imbalance in inequality Niall Macleod expresses itself in the standard scary “ global imbalances”. We worry less. +44-20-7986-4449
[email protected] ➤ There is no “average consumer” in a Plutonomy. Consensus analyses focusing on the “average” consumer are flawed from the start. The Plutonomy Stock Narendra Singh Basket outperformed MSCI AC World by 6.8% per year since 1985. Does +1-212-816-2807 even better if equities beat housing. Select names: Julius Baer, Bulgari,
[email protected] Richemont, Kuoni, and Toll Brothers. WELCOME TO THE PLUTONOMY MACHINE In early September we wrote about the (ir)relevance of oil to equities and introduced the idea that the U.S.is a Plutonomy - a concept that generated great interest from our clients. As global strategists, this got us thinking about how to buy stocks based on this plutonomy thesis, and the subsequent thesis that it will gather strength and amass breadth.