V13 N6 Thursday, Sept. 14, 2006 GOP at Bush’s precipice? dam maintained weapons of mass destruction ... and our Hill, Ellsworth poll leads forces are greeted as liberators, Bush will emerge extreme- By BRIAN A. HOWEY ly strong. INDIANAPOLIS - As we absorb the WISH-TV poll A prolonged military campaign with significant released last night and conducted Sept. 5-8 showing U.S. casualties will quickly fire up anxiety. That would be a long Rep. Mike Sodrel trailing Democrat Baron Hill 46-40 per- tightrope to walk. Should a military campaign conclude cent, and U.S. Rep. John Hostettler behind Vanderburgh quickly, the American military might find itself as an occu- County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth pier in a fractious country with 44-40 percent, consider the no experience as a democatric leading paragraphs in the March society. Terror attacks and 13, 2003, edition of The Howey casualties during an occupa- Political Report, as the nation tion and spreading unrest prepared for war in Iraq: through Europe and the Middle “This is brinksmanship East could have a distinct and on an epic scale. Within the next decisive domestic political im- month there could possibly be, pact. If this sounds like doom as REM might say, the end of the and gloom, President Bush world as we know it. President has boldly decided to walk the George W. Bush is taking a huge, precipice, believeing he had no calculated gamble, leading the choice.” nation into a war a majority of * * * Americans appear to believe is In an attempt to save his morally correct. The danger lies party from mid-term retribu- in its execution, the retribution of tion, President George W. our enemies, and the impact on Bush and Vice President Dick an economy. If the war concludes quickly, with few U.S. casualties, See page 3 conclusive proof arises that Sad- The NRCC’s Hostettler bind By JOSHUA CLAYBOURN EVANSVILLE - There’s a growing consensus among polical pundits that Republicans will suffer in this year’s mid-term elections. Even the solidly red state of Indiana is up for grabs. As Indiana’s chief “You can order the butter now, political guru Brian Howey put because with the polls I’ve seen, it, “U.S. Reps. Chris Chocola, both Hostettler and Woodruff are Mike Sodrel and John Hostet- toast.” tler are in deep - Former House Speaker John Gregg trouble over the war, now being HOWEY Political Report Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Sept. 14, 2006 recast by President Bush and Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld as a battle Boehner quote worries Roemer p. 6 against ‘Islamic fascism.’” The “Greggernaut’ cometh? p. 7 Their plight isn’t unique; the INSIDE war in Iraq threatens to undermine Bayh assertive on security p. 8 the campaigns of numerous Republi- Features can congressional candidates across Columnists: Tully, Kiesling p. 10 the country. What makes these three unique is that none of them voted for Horse Race: Critical trip for Gov. the Iraq war in October of 2002, yet it threatens to unseat them anyway. Daniels; Ulmer, Walorski into tossup zone p. 11 Hostettler flatly voted against it, and Reps. Chocola and Sodrel had not yet been elected. How, then, could they The Howey Political Report is The Howey Political Report let themselves get caught up in its PO Box 40265 published by NewsLink Inc. It Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265. negative aftermath? was founded in 1994. Certainly voter ignorance is www.howeypolitics.com partly to blame. Anyone with an “R” Brian A. Howey, Publisher [email protected] after their name is assumed to have Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Indianapolis Office: 317-506-0883. supported the initial decision to go in Writer Indianapolis Fax: 317-254-0535. and, to a lesser degree, is assumed to Mark Curry, Washington Writer Washington, DC Office: 202-256-5822. support President Bush’s style of lead- Jack E. Howey, Editor Business Office: 317-254-0535. ership. But neither of these portray- als is always fair, particularly for John Subscriptions: ©2006, The Howey Political Report. Hostettler. Hostettler follows his own $350 annually HPR via e-mail; All rights reserved. Photocopying, Internet line and consistently bucks the wishes $550 annually HPR & HPR Daily Wire. forwarding, faxing or reproducing in any of the national party. Call 317-254-0535. form, in whole or part, is a violation of Following his “no” vote on federal law. the war in Iraq, Vice President Cheney Congressional Committee (NRCC) for any indication, the NRCC may simply cancelled a planned fundraiser in the help, and there’s little chance the na- choose a third option and go negative. 8th district. Hostettler has often voted tional party will spend money praising The Post reports the NRCC enlisted against large Republican spending a candidate’s independence from the veteran party strategist Terry Nelson bills, including a Hurricane Katrina very hand that’s feeding it. to “run a campaign that will coordinate relief package. While Choc- with Senate Republicans on ads that ola and Sodrel are typical- similarly will rely on the best of the lymore likely to agree with worst that researchers have dug up on President Bush, they’re by Democrats.” no means a carbon copy That’s a gamble, given that either. such bickering is partly to blame for Clearly Hostet- the Republican poll drop already. But tler and others like him with plans to spend more than $50 throughout the country million on advertising (a midterm elec- stand to gain, politically tion record), the Republicans aren’t speaking, by separating backing down without a fight. But for themselves from President the investment to pay off, the NRCC’s U.S. Rep. John Hostettler talks to constituents in Vin- Bush and highlighting their best efforts may be spent on helping cennes. independent track record. candidates portray an independent, But this task will prove outside-the-beltway image. v particularly difficult for The NRCC and its candidates Hostettler. As of the July 15 reporting are ultimately left in a bind - either Claybourn is an HPR columnist deadline, he had only $195,146 on highlight candidate independence, and a recent graduate of the IU hand, while challenger Brad Ellsworth implicitly criticizing the national party, School of Law. He will practice had over three times that amount. or risk losing control of the House. If law in Evansville after climbing Hostettler is therefore forced a recent Washington Post story is Mount Kilimanjaro last month. to rely on the National Republican HOWEY Political Report Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Sept. 14, 2006 Cheney made a conspicuous case around the Sept. 11 fifth enemies in Iraq are tough and they are committed -- but anniversary, attempting to fold the debacle in Iraq into the so are Iraqi and coalition forces. We’re adapting to stay patriotic War on Terror. The results of this public relations ahead of the enemy, and we are carrying out a clear plan effort will have a profound impact on Indiana politics where to ensure that a democratic Iraq succeeds. We will not three congressional seats held by U.S. Reps. Chris Chocola, leave until this work is done.” Mike Sodrel and John Hostettler are slipping away from Bush added, “Whatever mistakes have been made Republicans, along with control of the U.S. and Indiana in Iraq, the worst mistake would be to think that if we Houses of Representatives. pulled out, the terrorists would leave us alone. They will It could be a week or more before enough polls not leave us alone. They will follow us.” taken after the Sept. 11 observances gauge the reaction and whether it will improve dire GOP prospects, but there Cheney: We’d do exactly the same thing has been an initial uptick in the President’s numbers. Sunday on NBC’s Meet the Press, Vice Presi- Three polls dent Dick Cheney said,"I think already stand out. One there is no question but that we is the Hill-Sodrel and did not anticipate an insurgency Ellsworth/Hostettler that would last this long. It's still numbers where the difficult. Obviously, major, major incumbents trail near work to do is ahead of us. But the error margin. The the fact is, the world is better off other component of the today with Saddam Hussein out of WISH-TV poll shows power. Think where we'd be if he Marion County Democrat was still there.” Melina Kennedy leading Then, incredibly, Cheney Prosecutor Carl Brizzi 43- said, “It was the right thing to do and if we had to do it 42 percent. “Melina has only been up on TV for a week this over again we would do exactly the same thing.” month,” said Democratic Chairman Ed Treacy. “Her name ID isn’t that high. This is evidence of a nationalized elec- tion.” Devlin Report: al-Anbar is lost And there was the CNN poll released on Sept. 11, On Sept. 11 in a page one story, Washington asking whether people blame the Bush administration for Post reporter Thomas E. Ricks reported the al-Anbar prov- the 9/11 attacks, 45 percent said either a “great deal” or ince -- which borders Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Syria -- is a “moderate amount,” up from 32 percent in a June 2002 all but lost politically, and probably militarily. “The officials CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. described Col. Pete Devlin’s classified assessment of the Bush, at the heeding of legendary political strate- dire state of Anbar as the first time that a senior U.S. mili- gist Karl Rove, was attempting to further nationalize the tary officer has filed so negative a report from Iraq,” Ricks War on Terror, where he has held an advantage, along with reported.