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Spaceplane « Rocket Propulsion System » PRIVATE SUBORBITAL HUMAN SPACE FLIGHT & Rocket Propulsion Systems for Spaceplanes ArianeGroup view on regulatory environment J.Ph Dutheil, 02-04-2019 SUB-ORBITAL REGULAR TRANSPORTER ■ Jet Engine phase ■ Rocket Engine phase 3 to 5 flights a week, from civil airport ■ Balistic phase Flight deck design: mono-pilot, Twin turbofans for aeronautic phases specific + business jet avionics (compliant with EASA CS-E / CS-34 / CS-36) Attitude control in space Rocket propulsion used only by rocket thrusters for acceleration to 100 km START Design of most items Wing : low drag at high Mach, based on aeronautic state- good handling characteristics of-the-art at low speed (EASA CS-23 / CS-25) THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP.IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT 2 THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. MARKET OVERVIEW: HUMAN COMMERCIAL SUBORBITAL SPACEFLIGHT World market forecast (over 10 first years) then, average 2.3 to 5.8 Bn €/year 12 to 31 Bn € Spaceplane ADS/AG concept market share (1/3rd ) 4 to 10 Bn € (µ-gravity and science market: to be added) THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S 3 WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - SPACEPLANE, SUPPORTING A VISION & STRATEGY Spaceplane Opportunity of an intermediate market: Commercial human sub-orbital spaceflight -Return on invest, paying back the assets (techno, products, infra): sales of products + maintenance -Leveraging industrial partners capability and strength for leading future regular access to commercial space THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 4 SPACEPLANE R.P.S.* ON TECHNO MATURATION PATH TOWARD PROPULSION OF FUTURE VEHICLES: * Rocket Propulsion System = Space access maturity steps Orbital = Aircraft propulsion fertilization ZHEST of Airbus Spaceplane New Market accessible techno. HST of JAXA Sub-Orbital High- Orbital high Point-to-Point Speed air flight-rate techno & regul breathing logistic market & ops Spaceplane Cryoplane fuel High-Speed, techno. & management & low emmission transport regulation & certification operation Low emmission Expendable Sub-orbital access- & post kerosene rocket techno. to-space aircraft THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 5 ARIANEGROUP DRIVER: SAFETY MATTERS FIRST Aeronautic-like safety level Manned-space safety level: Passenger safety first not high enough Application for a certification, by independent safety authority No waiver to be signed by the passengers The future of human Access for the many, as paying No spaceport passengersin desert, but in civil airport regular access to space UseNo ofmore mastered access technologies for the : relevant only paidTRL relies on safe transport Design relying& trained on aeronautic astronauts best practices, & space best design rules. THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. 6 IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - FLIGHT ENVELOPE : MACH NUMBER VS. ALTITUDE FL 600 1 Space Ascent Gate Supersonic 2 Space Descent Gate THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - FLIGHT OPERATIONS FROM CHANGI INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT Scenario of daily departures addressed with CAG1 & CAAS2 Aeronautic chart of Singapore air space Space flight zone location evaluated with CAAS2 Changi airport of Singapore 1 Changi Airport Group Above FL 600 to space and back: need to manage non-interference with 2 Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore other users THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - RPS & VEHICLE INFRASTRUCTURES IMPLEMENTATION IN A REAL AIRPORT THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S 9 WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - Thank you! THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 10 SUPPORTING SLIDES THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 11 SUB-ORBITAL MANNED FLIGHT MARKET ANALYSIS Number of studies on suborbital reusable vehicles (SRVs) markets have been published in the last 10 years Similar studies Chosen data basis which were Human spaceflight and edition year considered Rationale for choice of study • FUTRON 2002, 2006 . Best survey methodology (e.g., brochure given, • TAURI 2012 qualitative interviews, definition of target customer • IPSOS 2007 and 2010 • ADIC 2012 groups, market growth and maturation) 2010 . Largest sample size, geographic coverage (worldwide) . Ticket price evolution considered in different scenarios Science & Tech. • ADIC 2012 Thorough and robust methodology • NASA, INNO360 . Sound research, e.g., interviews with 60 researchers, extensive database/publication search for research 2012 partners . Assumed academic funding by 50 governments and different scenarios modeled THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. TITLE OF PRESENTATION - XX/XX/XXXX 12 IPSOS STUDY : A PROVEN SURVEY METHODOLOGY Market estimation methodology A worldwide study % HNWI share, 2012 (Source: CapGemini / Merril Lynch) Data needed to estimate market size and the drivers of demand were collected in two stages: . E.U: A qualitative stage, including in-depth one hour interviews, N.A: 12% Japan were conducted among High Net Worth Individuals (HNWI) 29% 28% that had expressed interest in participating in a suborbital trip M.E: 4% . A quantitative stage where around 2000 people representative 21% Asia-Pacific of HNWI population were interviewed on line though a AFR: 1% (ex. Japan) questionnaire L.A: 5% To give reality to suborbital trips, a special marketing brochure was designed and used during qualitative and quantitative stages. Fastest HNWI growth A first round of interviews was conducted in 2007. 1250 people were interviewed with the following split across countries: A second round of 600 interviews was conducted in 2010 (after financial crisis) in the following countries: (Nota: In order to estimate the rest of the global market, particularly Latin Amerca and Middle East, a conservative extrapolation from European Model was performed by Ipsos) THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 13 TICKET PRICE AND SAFETY: HUMAN SPACEFLIGHT MARKET DRIVERS . The distribution of the potential market over the time is represented by a Fisher-Pry curve with the following equation: 0.5 x ((1+hyperbolic tangent (a x (t-t0)) . The market was estimated with the parameters a=0.12 and t0=21 with corresponds to a 30-year maturity (conservative). The S form of the Fisher-Pry curve best describes this type of market with a technological connotation . We assume in our market study that suborbital flights are well marketed and that promotional campaigns are successful. Out of a sense of prudence, the study considers that this experience will be done only once per household. No growth of the HNWI population is considered (conservative) Between 40 000 to 100 000 passengers at year 20 (in between 0.3-0.6% of 2015 HNWI1 households) 1 High Net Worth Individual THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S 14 WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - SPACEPLANE « ROCKET PROPULSION SYSTEM » Rocket Engine ACE-42R (42 t thrust) •Thrust Chamber > 40 cycles •Turbo-Pump > 80 Cycles High Pressure •Gas Generator > 80 cycles Tanks > 480 cycles Propellant Tanks > 480 cycles Fluid control & Feeding system: xx cycles a Design-To-Safety b Design-To-total Cost c Design-To-Performance d Design-for-Budget e Design-for-Environment THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP.IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. 15 DESIGN-TO-SAFETY / CERTIFICATION EASA* Industry to Certification Set the adapt rules (*) European Aviation acceptable engineering identification / Safety Agency level of risk methods & regulation organisation Fail-Safe concept + Proba. Catastrophic failure ≤ − THIS DOCUMENT AND ITS CONTENTS ARE PROPERTY OF ARIANEGROUP. IT SHALL NOT BE COMMUNICATED TO ANY THIRD PARTY WITHOUT THE OWNER’S WRITTEN CONSENT | ARIANEGROUP SAS – ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. - 16 DESIGN-TO-SAFETY / CERTIFICATION Design-to-Safety EASA Starting with «rules identification» Processes Design Rules CS-23, CS-E, CS-APU Merging 2 cultures System (*) Engineering 2,500 (core)
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