European Elections 2019

Report on the developments in the political landscape January 2019

Prepared by

Disclaimer: The content of this document is the sole responsibility of it(s) authors and any opinions expressed herein should not be taken to represent an official position of the European Parliament. Data and figures presented in this report are coming from a comprehensive selection of voting intention polls published in the EU Member States. None of the voting intention polls used have been commissioned or conducted by the European Parliament.

Contents Introduction ...... 4 Methodology ...... 5 Data selection and collection ...... 5 National results ...... 6 Belgium ...... 6 Bulgaria ...... 10 Czechia ...... 12 Denmark ...... 14 Germany ...... 16 Estonia ...... 18 Ireland ...... 20 Greece ...... 22 Spain ...... 24 France ...... 26 Croatia ...... 28 Italy ...... 30 Cyprus ...... 32 Latvia ...... 34 Lithuania ...... 36 Luxembourg ...... 38 Hungary ...... 40 Malta ...... 42 The Netherlands ...... 44 Austria ...... 46 Poland ...... 48 Portugal ...... 50 Romania ...... 52 Slovenia ...... 54 Slovakia ...... 56 Finland ...... 58 Sweden ...... 60 Annex – Voting intention polls used ...... 62

Introduction

From 23 until 26 May 2019 citizens from all EU Member States will vote in the next European Parliament elections. As in previous elections, the European Parliament will provide accurate and timely information on the results at both Member State and European level, making reliable data on turnout and the future composition of Parliament available to citizens and the media.

The Public Opinion Monitoring Unit (POMU) of the European Parliament’s Directorate-General for Communication is responsible for this exercise. Together with its experienced external partner, Kantar Public, POMU assembles available information already in the run-up to the European elections, starting with voting intention surveys from Member States, the publication of seat projections (as from beginning 2019) and leading to the establishment of first global result projection on the night of the 26 May.

The present report has been prepared by Kantar Public for DG COMM’s Public Opinion Monitoring Unit. The objective of this report is to provide the most accurate and up-to-date information on the European political landscape, in preparation for the election night.

The data used in this report was assembled with the contribution of Kantar Public’s national polling institutes in each of the 27 Member States, all of which will be actively involved in monitoring the European elections, and a political scientist working closely with Kantar Public. Parliament’s Public Opinion Monitoring Unit and its network of Liaison Offices in all Member States provided additional data and insight for this report.

The report provides the details of the voting intention surveys used in each country together with key information regarding the current political landscape and electoral laws in each country, which could affect the results of the next European Parliament elections.

The present report covers the month of January 2019 (as of 23.01.2019). The next report will be published mid-February 2019.

Methodology

Data selection and collection

Kantar Public prepares each report together with the European Parliament. Following the withdrawal of the United Kingdom from the European Union as from 29 March 2019, the size of the European Parliament in the next legislative period will be reduced from 751 to 705 elected representatives. From the 73 seats originally allocated to the United Kingdom, 27 seats will be reallocated among 14 Member States, while 46 seats will not be used for the time being.

The voting intention surveys are selected and collected by Kantar Public and their national partners as well as by the EP Liaison Offices, with the Public Opinion Monitoring Unit approving the final selection of the surveys used.

Priority is always given to surveys on European election voting intentions. When such surveys are not available, national voting intentions polls are used for the projections. In some cases, when a national election recently occurred and no voting intentions polls have been published since (e.g. in Luxembourg during October), the results of the national elections are used to prepare the projections. Only polls considered as most reliable are taken into consideration, by assessing the methodology, reputation of the polling institute and availability of methodological information. As the methodology of voting intention surveys can vary between Member States, Kantar Public will be reweighing polls if necessary, but only to eliminate categories such as "undecided" or "not going to vote". No further adjustments are made. Utmost care is taken to avoid any bias in the choice of polling surveys used for the calculation of the projection. At the same time, no guarantee can be given that the selection is fully exhaustive.

National results Voting intentions Belgium 23/01/2019 Average of national polls

N-VA 28.8%

CD&V 16.3%

Open VLD 14.2%

Groen 14.0%

VI.Belang 10.4%

sp.a 10.4%

PVDA+ 4.7%

Other parties 1.1%

23/01/2019

N-VA (ECR) Open VLD (ALDE) CD&V (EPP) sp.a (S&D) Groen (Greens/EFA) VI.Belang (ENF) PVDA+

35%

30% 28.8% N-VA (ECR)

25%

20%

16.3% CD&V (EPP)

15% 14.2% Open VLD (ALDE)

14.0% Groen (Greens/EFA)

10.4% sp.a (S&D) 10% 10.4% VI.Belang (ENF)

5% 4.7% PVDA+

0% Jan-Feb 2018 March 2018 April 2018 June 2018 October 2018 December 2018 January 2019 Average Average One Poll One Poll One Poll One Poll Average

23/01/2019 Average of national polls

PS 25.2%

MR 20.3%

ECOLO 16.6%

PTB 13.6%

cdH 10.9%

PP 5.7%

DéFI 3.8%

La Droite 2.3%

Other parties 1.9%

23/01/2019

PS (S&D) MR (ALDE) ECOLO (Greens/EFA) cdH (EPP) PTB PP DéFI La Droite

30%

25% 25.2% PS (S&D)

20% 20.3% MR (ALDE)

16.6% ECOLO (Greens/EFA) 15% 13.6% PTB

10.9% cdH (EPP) 10%

5.7% PP 5% 3.8% DéFI 2.3% La Droite

0% Jan-Feb 2018 March 2018 April 2018 June 2018 October 2018 December 2018 January 2019 Average Average One Poll One Poll One Poll One Poll Average

PP – This party is a member of the Alliance for Direct Democracy in Europe Party (ADDE) but not part of the EFDD group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP.

Bulgaria Voting intentions

23/01/2019 European Elections poll

GERB // ГЕРБ 33.2%

BSP // БСП 30.9%

DPS // ДПС 10.6%

Coal. UP // ОП 6.0%

Coal DB // Дб 5.6%

Volya // Воля 3.9%

Other parties 9.8%

23/01/2019

GERB (EPP) BSP (S&D) DPS (ALDE) Coal RB (BND + UDF et al.) Coal UP (IMRO + NFSB et al.) Volya Coal DB (DSB + Yes Bulgaria et al.)

45%

40%

35% 33.2% GERB (EPP)

30.9% BSP (S&D) 30%

25%

20%

15%

10.6% DPS (ALDE) 10% 6.0% Coal. UP (ECR/NA) 5.6% Coal. DB 05% 3.9% Volya

00% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 One Poll One Poll Average Average EE2019 poll Average EE19 average Average EE2019 poll EE2019 poll

Czechia Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Average of national polls

ANO 2011 31.5%

ODS 14.0%

Piráti 13.5%

ČSSD 8.5%

KSČM 8.5%

SPD 7.0%

KDU–ČSL 4.8%

TOP 09 4.8%

STAN 4.5%

Svobodní 1.3%

SZ 0.8%

Other parties 1.0%

23/01/2019 ANO 2011 (ALDE) KSČM (GUE/NGL) TOP 09 (EPP) ČSSD (S&D) KDU–ČSL (EPP) STAN (EPP)

ODS (ECR) Svobodní (EFDD) SZ Piráti SPD

35%

31.5% ANO 2011 (ALDE) 30%

25%

20%

14.0% ODS (ECR) 15% 13.5% Piráti

10% 8.5% ČSSD (S&D) 8.5% KSČM (GUE/NGL)

7.0% SPD 4.8% TOP 09 (EPP) 5% 4.8% KDU–ČSL (EPP) 4.5% STAN (EPP) 1.3% Svobodní (EFDD) 0.8% SZ 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 September One Poll Average One Poll One Poll Average Average Average One poll Average Average Average

SPD – This party is a member of the Movement for a Europe of Nations and Freedom (MENF). They do not currently have any seats in the EP. SZ – This party is a member of the European Green party (EGP) but not part of the Greens/EFA group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP.

Denmark

23/01/2019 European Elections poll

A (S) 22.5%

V 19.6%

O (DF) 18.0%

Ø (EL) 8.0%

F (SF) 6.3%

B (RV) 6.1%

N 5.4%

C (KF) 4.8%

I (LA) 4.5%

Å 3.7%

Other parties 1.3%

23/01/2019 O (DF) (ECR) A (S) (S&D) V (ALDE) F (SF) (Greens/EFA) C (KF) (EPP)

B (RV) (ALDE) I (LA) Ø (EL) Å N (GUE-NGL)

35%

30%

25%

22.5% A (S) (S&D)

20% 19.6% V (ALDE) 18.0% O (DF) (ECR)

15%

8.0% Ø (EL) 10% 6.29% F (SF) (Greens/EFA) 6.1% B (RV) (ALDE)

5% 5.4% N (GUE-NGL) 4.8% C (KF) (EPP) 4.5% I (LA) 3.7% Å 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early September October 2018 November 2018December 2018 January 2019 September 2018 Average Average Average Average EE2019 poll Average Average Average Average Average EE2019 poll

Ø (EL) – This party is a member of the party of the European Left (EL) but not part of the GUE-NGL group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP.

Germany

23/01/2019 European Elections poll

CDU/CSU 35.0%

Grüne 20.0%

SPD 15.0%

AfD 10.0%

FDP 8.0%

DIE LINKE 6.0%

Other parties 6.0%

23/01/2019 CDU/CSU (EPP) SPD (S&D) Grüne (Greens/EFA) FDP (ALDE) DIE LINKE (GUE-NGL) AfD (EFDD)

35.0% CDU/CSU (EPP)

30%

20% 20.0% Grüne (Greens/EFA)

15.0% SPD (S&D)

10% 10.0% AfD (EFDD)

8.0% FDP (ALDE)

6.0% DIE LINKE (GUE-NGL)

0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early Sept. September October 2018 November 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 2018 2018 Average Average Average Average Average Average Average EE2019 poll Average Average EE2019 poll EE2019 poll

Estonia Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Average of national polls

KE 25.4%

ER 23.8%

EKRE 20.1%

SDE 11.3%

I 8.0%

Eesti 200 5.2%

EER 2.1%

EVA 0.8%

Other parties 3.3%

23/01/2019

ER (ALDE) KE (ALDE) I (EPP) SDE (S&D) EKRE EER EVA Eesti 200

35%

30%

25% 25.4% KE (ALDE) 23.8% ER (ALDE)

20% 20.1% EKRE

15%

11.3% SDE (S&D)

10%

8.0% I (EPP)

5% 5.2% Eesti 200

2.1% EER 0.8% EVA 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early Sept. 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average

EER – This party is a member of the European Green Party (EGP) but not part of the Greens/EFA group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP.

Ireland Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Average of national polls

FG 30.3%

FF 27.4%

SF 18.4%

Independents 11.4%

LAB 4.5%

GP 2.5%

IA 2.0%

S-PBP 2.0%

SD 1.5%

.

23/01/2019

FF FG (EPP) Independents (S&D; ALDE; GUE/NGL) SF (GUE/NGL) LAB GP S-PBP SD IA

40%

35%

30% 30.3% FG (EPP)

27.4% FF

25%

20% 18.4% SF (GUE/NGL)

15%

11.4% Independents (S&D; ALDE; GUE/NGL) 10%

4.5% LAB

5% 2.5% GP 2.0% IA 2.0% S-PBP 1.5% SD 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Earl Sept. 2018September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 January 2019 Average Average Average Average One Poll One Poll Average Average Average Average

LAB – This party is a member of the Party of European Socialists (PES). They do not currently have any seats in the EP. GP – This party is a member of the European Green Party (EGP). They do not currently have any seats in the EP. FF is still a member of the ALDE party but their only Member in the EP has left the group and joined ECR

Greece Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Average of national polls

N.D. // Ν.Δ. 39.2%

SY.RIZ.A. // 25.0% ΣΥ.ΡΙΖ.Α.

X.A. // X.A. 7.0%

Coal. KINAL // 6.8% ΚΙΝΑΛ

K.K.E. // K.K.E. 6.4%

LA.E. // ΛΑ.Ε. 2.6%

E.K. // E.K. 2.3%

AN.EL. // ΑΝ.ΕΛ. 1.3%

Other parties 9.2%

23/01/2019 SY.RIZ.A. (GUE-NGL) N.D. (EPP) X.A. (NA)

Coal. KINAL (PA.SO.K. + DI.SI. + KI.DI.SO.) (S&D) K.K.E. (NA) AN.EL.

E.K. LA.E. (GUE-NGL) 45%

40% 39.2% N.D. (EPP)

35%

30%

25% 25.0% SY.RIZ.A. (GUE-NGL)

20%

15%

10% 7.0% X.A. (NA) 6.8% Coal. KINAL 6.4% K.K.E. (NA) 5% 2.6% LA.E. (GUE-NGL) 2.3% E.K. 1.3% AN.EL. 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early Sept. 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 One Poll Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average

EK - This party is a member of the European Democratic party but not part of the ALDE group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP. A split within ANEL has led to the creation of a new party: “The Alternative Road”. Their only MEP has joined this party and remains in ECR. PE is no longer being reported on separately in voting intention polls.

Spain

Average of national polls 23/01/2019

PSOE / PSC 24.1%

PP 19.9%

C's 19.2%

Coal. UP 15.4%

VOX 10.1%

ERC 2.6%

PDeCAT 1.0%

EAJ-PNV 0.8%

EH Bildu 0.4%

Other parties 6.5%

23/01/2019

PP (EPP) PSOE / PSC (S&D) Coal. UP (Podemos + IU (GUE/NGL) + et. al.) EAJ-PNV ERC (Greens/EFA) C's (ALDE) EH Bildu PDeCAT (ALDE) VOX

35%

30%

25% 24.1% PSOE / PSC (S&D)

20% 19.9% PP (EPP) 19.2% C's (ALDE)

15% 15.4% Coal. UP (GUE/NGL)

10% 10.1% VOX

2.6% ERC (Greens/EFA) 5%

1.0% PDeCAT (ALDE) 0.8% EAJ-PNV 0.4% EH Bildu 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early Sept. 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average

EH Bildu – This party is no longer a part of the GUE-NGL. Their only MEP left the EP on 28/02/2018.

France Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Average of European Election polls

Coal. LREM + 22.8% MODEM

RN 18.0%

LR 10.8%

Gilets jaunes 10.3%

FI 7.5%

EELV 7.5%

DLF 4.8%

PS + PRG 4.8%

UDI 3.3%

PCF 2.3%

Générations.s 2.0%

LP 1.0%

Other parties 5.2%

FI (GUE-NGL) PS (S&D) + PRG (S&D) EELV (Greens/EFA) LR (EPP) 23/01/2019 RN (ENF) DLF (EFDD) Coal. LREM + MODEM (ALDE) PCF (GUE-NGL) LP (EFDD) UDI (ALDE) Générations.s (S&D) Gilets jaunes

30%

22.8% Coal. LREM + MODEM (ALDE)

20%

18.0% RN (ENF)

10.8% LR (EPP) 10.3% Gilets jaunes 10% 7.5% FI (GUE-NGL) 7.5% EELV (Greens/EFA)

4.8% PS (S&D) + PRG (S&D) 4.8% DLF (EFDD) 3.3% UDI (ALDE) 2.3% PCF (GUE-NGL) 2.0% Générations.s (S&D) 1.0% LP (EFDD) 0% December 2017 May 2018 September 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 EE2019 poll EE2019 poll EE2019 poll EE2019 poll EE2019 Average EE2019 Average

Gilets jaunes – On 23 January 2019, some individuals involved in the movement announced that they will form a list, and the movement now features in many voting intention polls.

Croatia Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Average of national polls

HDZ 32.6%

SDP 17.4%

ŽIVI ZID 16.1%

MOST 7.6%

HSS 3.5%

Bandić Milan 2.8% 365

PAMETNO 2.4%

NHR 2.2%

HNS 2.0%

IDS - DDI 1.7%

GLAS 1.5%

Other parties 10.6%

HDZ (EPP) HSS (EPP) SDP (S&D) HNS (ALDE) MOST IDS - DDI (ALDE) 23/01/2019

ŽIVI ZID Bandić Milan 365 PAMETNO GLAS (ALDE) NHR 40%

35%

32.6% HDZ (EPP)

30%

25%

20%

17.4% SDP (S&D) 16.1% ŽIVI ZID 15%

10% 7.6% MOST 3.5% HSS (EPP) 2.8% Bandić Milan 365 5% 2.4% PAMETNO 2.2% NHR 2.0% HNS (ALDE) 1.7% IDS - DDI (ALDE) 1.5% GLAS (ALDE) 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early Sept. 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 Average Average One Poll Average Average One Poll One Poll One Poll Average One poll Average

Pametno - This party is a member of the ALDE party but not the ALDE group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP.

Italy Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Average of European Election polls

LEGA 31.9%

M5S 25.9%

PD 17.7%

FI 8.7%

FdI 3.8%

+Europa 2.9%

Articolo 1 - MDP 2.3%

PaP 2.1%

Other parties 4.7%

23/01/2019

PD (S&D) Coal. LeU (SI + MDP) (S&D) M5S (EFDD) FI (EPP; ECR) LEGA (ENF) FdI +Europa PaP Articolo 1 - MDP (S&D)

31.9% LEGA (ENF) 30%

25.9% M5S (EFDD)

20%

17.7% PD (S&D)

10% 8.7% FI (EPP; ECR)

3.8% FdI 2.9% +Europa 2.3% Articolo 1 - MDP (S&D) 2.1% PaP 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early Sept. 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 Average Legislative Elect. Average Average Average Average Average Average EE2019 poll Average EE2019 Average

Cyprus Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Single national poll

DI.SY. 39.0%

A.K.E.L. 18.0%

DI.KO. 15.0%

E.LA.M. 11.0%

KOSP 4.0%

K.A. 2.0%

Symmaxia Politon 2.0%

EDEK 1.0%

Other parties 8.0%

23/01/2019

DISY (EPP) AKEL (GUE/NGL) DIKO (S&D) EDEK (S&D) KOSP SYMMAXIA ELAM KA

50%

40% 39.0% DISY (EPP)

30%

20% 18.0% AKEL (GUE/NGL)

15.0% DIKO (S&D)

11.0% ELAM 10% 4.0% KOSP 2.0% KA 2.0% SYMMAXIA 1.0% EDEK (S&D) 0% January 2018 June 2018 September 2018 One Poll One Poll One Poll

KOSP – This party is a member of the European Green Party (EGP) but not part of the Greens/EFA group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP. KA – This party is a member of the Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists in Europe (ACRE) but not part of the ECR group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP.

Latvia Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Single national poll

SC 29.0%

KPV LV 14.6%

JKP 12.5%

Coal. ZZS (LZS + LZP) 9.3%

Coal. NA (TB/LNNK + 9.1% VL!)

Coal. AP! (Par! + 8.7% Latvijas attīstībai et al.)

Coal. JV (V. et al.) 5.9%

LRA 4.2%

LKS 3.4%

Progresīvie 3.2%

23/01/2019

Coal. JV (V. et al.) (EPP) Coal. NA (TB/LNNK + VL!) (ECR) SC (S&D) Coal. ZZS (LZS + LZP) (ALDE) LKS (Greens/EFA) LRA KPV LV JKP Coal. AP! (Par! + Latvijas attīstībai et al.) Progresīvie

40%

35%

30% 29.0% SC (S&D)

25%

20% 14.6% KPV LV

15% 12.5% JKP

9.3% Coal. ZZS (ALDE) 10% 9.1% Coal NA (ECR) 8.7% Coal AP! 5.9% Coal JV (EPP) 5% 4.2% LRA 3.4% LKS (Greens/EFA) 3.2% Progresīvie 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 One Poll One Poll One Poll One Poll Average Average National elections One Poll One Poll One Poll

Lithuania Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Single national poll

TS-LKD 28.6%

LVŽS 23.2%

DP 10.8%

TT 10.3%

LSDP 8.9%

LCP 5.8%

LLRA-KŠS 3.9% (AWPL)

LSDDP 3.8%

LRLS 3.8%

Other parties 0.9%

TS-LKD (EPP) LSDP (S&D) LRLS (ALDE) TT (EFDD) DP (ALDE) 23/01/2019

LLRA-KŠS (AWPL) (ECR) LVŽS (Greens/EFA) LZS LCP LSDDP

35%

30% 28.6% TS-LKD (EPP)

25% 23.2% LVŽS (Greens/EFA)

20%

15%

10.8% DP (ALDE) 10% 10.3% TT (EFDD) 8.9% LSDP (S&D)

5.8% LCP 5% 3.9% LLRA-KŠS (AWPL) (ECR) 3.8% LRLS (ALDE) 3.8% LSDDP 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 Average Average One Poll Average One Poll One Poll Average One Poll One Poll One Poll

LSSDP – Whilst not yet a member, it has applied to be a member of the Party of European Socialists (PES). It is not part of the S&D group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP.

Luxembourg Voting intentions

23/01/2019 National elections results (14/10/2018)

CSV 28.3%

LSAP 17.6%

DP 16.9%

Dei Gréng 15.1%

ADR 8.3%

Piraten 6.5%

Dei Lénk 5.5%

Other parties 1.9%

Official results: https://elections.public.lu/fr.html

23/01/2019 Dei Gréng (Greens/EFA) LSAP (S&D) DP (ALDE) Dei Lénk (GUE/NGL) CSV (EPP) ADR Piraten

45%

40%

35%

30% 28.3% CSV (EPP)

25%

20% 17.6% LSAP (S&D) 16.9% DP (ALDE) 15% 15.1% Dei Gréng (Greens/EFA)

10% 8.3% ADR 6.5% Piraten 5% 5.5% Dei Lénk (GUE/NGL)

0% December 2017 May 2018 June 2018 October 2018 One Poll One Poll One Poll National election

ADR – This party is a member of the Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists in Europe (ACRE) but not part of the ECR group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP. Dei Lénk – This party is a member of the European Left (EL) but they do not currently have any seats in the EP.

Hungary Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Average of national polls

Coal. 50.5% FIDESZ+KDNP

JOBBIK 15.0%

Coal. MSZP+Párbesz 13.0% éd

DK 8.0%

Momentum 5.0%

LMP 4.5%

MKKP 3.0%

Mi Hazánk 1.0%

Coal. FIDESZ+KDNP (EPP) JOBBIK (NA) DK (S&D) 23/01/2019 EGYÜTT 2014 (Greens/EFA) LMP (Greens/EFA) MKKP Momentum Coal. MSZP (S&D) + Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA) Mi Hazánk

60%

50% 50.5% Coal. FIDESZ+KDNP (EPP)

40%

30%

20% 15.0% JOBBIK (NA) 13.0% Coal. MSZP (S&D) + Párbeszéd (Greens/EFA)

10% 8.0% DK (S&D) 4.5% LMP (Greens/EFA) 5.0% Momentum 3.0% MKKP 1.0% Mi Hazánk 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 September June 2018 September October 2018 November December January 2019 2018 2018 2018 2018 Average Average Leg. Election Average Average Average One poll Average Average One poll Average

Momentum joined the ALDE party 9 November 2018 but it does not belong to the ALDE group. It does not currently have any seats in the EP.

Malta Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Single national poll

PL-MLP 65.1%

PN 33.2%

AD 0.9%

PD 0.8%

PL-MLP (S&D) PN (EPP) AD PD 23/01/2019

70%

65.1% PL-MLP (S&D)

60%

50%

40%

33.2% PN (EPP) 30%

20%

10%

0.9% AD 0.8% PD 0% Jan-Feb-Mar '18 March 2018 April 2018 June 2018 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 One Poll One Poll One Poll Average One Poll One Poll One Poll Average One poll One poll

The Netherlands Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Average of national polls

VVD 18.2%

PVV 11.7%

GL 11.7%

CDA 10.1%

D66 9.4%

SP 7.6%

FvD 7.4%

PvdA 6.2%

CU 4.7%

PvdD 4.3%

50+ 3.2%

DENK 2.8%

SGP 2.1%

Other parties 0.8%

23/01/2019 D66 (ALDE) CDA (EPP) PVV(ENF) VVD (ALDE) SP (GUE-NGL) PvdA (S&D) CU (ECR)

SGP (ECR) GL (Greens/EFA) PvdD (GUE-NGL) 50+ DENK FvD

25%

20%

18.2% VVD (ALDE)

15%

11.7% GL (Greens/EFA) 11.7% PVV(ENF)

10.1% CDA (EPP) 10% 9.4% D66 (ALDE) 7.6% SP (GUE-NGL) 7.4% FvD 6.2% PvdA (S&D)

5% 4.7% CU (ECR) 4.3% PvdD (GUE-NGL) 3.2% 50+ 2.8% DENK 2.1% SGP (ECR)

0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early Sept. 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average One Poll Average Average

Austria Voting intentions

23/01/2019 European Election poll

ÖVP 27.0%

SPÖ 26.0%

FPÖ 23.0%

Neos 9.0%

Grüne 7.0%

JETZT 2.0%

Other parties 6.0%

23/01/2019

ÖVP (EPP) SPÖ (S&D) FPÖ (ENF) Grüne (Greens/EFA) Neos (ALDE) JETZT

35%

30%

27.0% ÖVP (EPP) 26.0% SPÖ (S&D) 25%

23.0% FPÖ (ENF)

20%

15%

10% 9.0% Neos (ALDE)

7.0% Grüne (Greens/EFA)

5%

2.0% JETZT

0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 Average Average Average Average Average EE2019 poll Average EE2019 poll Average EE2019 poll

Poland Voting intentions

23/01/2019 European Election poll

Coal. ZP (PiS + 41.5% SP et al.)

PO 29.1%

Robert Biedroń 7.5%

Kukuiz'15 5.5%

PSL 5.5%

Coal. Wolność 4.0% + RN

SLD 3.9%

Razem 1.9%

Other parties 1.1%

23/01/2019 PO (EPP) Coal. ZP (PiS (ECR) + SP et al.) SLD (S&D)

Coal. Wolność (EFDD; NA) + RN PSL (EPP) .N (ALDE)

Kukuiz'15 Razem Robert Biedroń

50%

45%

41.5% Coal. ZP (PiS (ECR) + 40% SP et al.)

35%

30% 29.1% PO (EPP)

25%

20%

15%

7.5% Robert Biedroń 10% 5.5% Kukuiz'15 5.5% PSL (EPP) 4.0% Coal. Wolność (EFDD; NA) 5% + RN 3.9% SLD (S&D) 1.9% Razem 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 July 2018 Early Sept. 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 Average Average Average Average Average Average Average One poll Average One poll EE2019 poll

Coal. ZP – Coalition comprises PiS, SP and P and was confirmed on 2nd September 2018 during the PiS convention. There will not be a ZP list, but all candidates in this coalition will run on the PiS list. PiS itself is a member of ECR, while other smaller parties in the coalition are not yet affiliated with a European group. Robert Biedroń – The party is not yet officially registered but has already started to appear in voting intention polls. It will be officially established on 3 February 2019.

Portugal Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Average of national polls

PS 39.6%

PSD 25.0%

CDS-PP 8.4%

BE 8.4%

Coal. CDU 7.3% (PCP + PEV)

Aliança 4.0%

PAN 2.8%

Other parties 4.5%

PS (S&D) PSD (EPP) CDS-PP (EPP) Coal. CDU (PCP + PEV) (GUE-NGL) BE (GUE-NGL) PAN Aliança 23/01/2019

45%

40% 39.6% PS (S&D)

35%

30%

25% 25.0% PSD (EPP)

20%

15%

10% 8.4% BE (GUE-NGL) 8.4% CDS-PP (EPP) 7.3% Coal. CDU (PCP 5% + PEV) (GUE-NGL) 4.0% Aliança 2.8% PAN 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early Sept. 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 January 2019 Average Average One Poll One Poll One Poll Average Average One poll Average Average

Romania Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Single national poll

PSD 33.0%

PNL 20.0%

Pro Romania 9.0%

ALDE 9.0%

USR 7.0%

UDMR 6.0% (RMDSZ)

PMP 5.0%

RO+ 5.0%

Other parties 6.0%

23/01/2019 PSD (S&D) PNL (EPP) UDMR (RMDSZ) (EPP) PMP (EPP) ALDE (ALDE) USR Pro Romania RO+

50%

45%

40%

35% 33.0% PSD (S&D)

30%

25%

20% 20.0% PNL (EPP)

15%

9.0% Pro Romania 10% 9.0% ALDE (ALDE) 7.0% USR 6.0% UDMR (RMDSZ) (EPP) 5% 5.0% RO+ 5.0% PMP (EPP) 0% February 2018 March 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early Sept. 2018 September 2018 October 2018 January 2019 One Poll One Poll Average One Poll One Poll One Poll Average One Poll

Slovenia

23/01/2019 Average of national polls

SDS 24.8%

Lista M.Š. 23.8%

SD 13.4%

LEVICA 10.5%

N.Si 7.2%

SMC 5.1%

SNS 4.5%

SAB 4.5%

DeSUS 3.6%

Other parties 2.7%

23/01/2019

SDS (EPP) N.Si (EPP) SLS (EPP) DeSUS (ALDE) SD (S&D) SAB SMC SNS LEVICA Lista M.Š.

40%

35%

30%

25% 24.8% SDS (EPP) 23.8% Lista M.Š.

20%

15% 13.4% SD (S&D)

10.5% LEVICA 10%

7.2% N.Si (EPP) 5.1% SMC 5% 4.5% SNS 4.5% SAB 3.6% DeSUS (ALDE) 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early Sept. 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 Average One Poll Average Average Average Average Average Average Average One poll Average

SMC and SAB – These parties are members of the ALDE party (EGP) but not part of the ALDE group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP. LEVICA – This party is a member of the European Left party (EL) but not part of the S&D group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP. LMS – This party joined the ALDE party on 9 November 2018 but it is not a member of the ALDE group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP.

Slovakia Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Single national poll

SMER-SD 21.7%

SaS 13.3%

OL'aNO + 10.5% NOVA

L'SNS 9.2%

SNS 9.2%

Sme Rodina 9.0%

KDH 6.5%

MOST-HÍD 5.2%

PS 5.1%

SPOLU 4.1%

SMK - MPK 3.3%

Other parties 2.9%

23/01/2019

SMER-SD (S&D) KDH (EPP) OL'aNO (ECR) + NOVA (ECR) SMK - MPK (EPP)

SaS (ECR) MOST-HÍD (EPP) SNS L'SNS

Sme Rodina PS SPOLU 30%

25%

21.7% SMER-SD (S&D)

20%

15%

13.3% SaS (ECR) 10.5% OL'aNO (ECR) + NOVA (ECR) 10% 9.2% SNS 9.2% L'SNS 9.0% Sme Rodina

6.5% KDH (EPP) 5% 5.2% MOST-HÍD (EPP) 5.1% PS 4.1% SPOLU 3.3% SMK - MPK (EPP)

0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early Sept. 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 One Poll Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average One poll One poll

SNS – This party is no longer affiliated with EFDD and is now allocated to ‘Others’ PS – This party became a member of the ALDE party on 9 November 2018 but it is not a member of the ALDE group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP.

Finland Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Average of national polls

SDP 21.1%

KOK 19.6%

KESK 15.9%

VIHR 13.3%

PS 10.0%

VAS 9.5%

KD 4.1%

SFP (RKP) 3.4%

SIN 1.1%

Other parties 2.4%

23/01/2019

KOK (EPP) KESK (ALDE) PS (ECR) SDP (S&D) VIHR (Greens/EFA) VAS (GUE-NGL) SFP (RKP) (ALDE) KD SIN

25%

21.1% SDP (S&D) 20% 19.6% KOK (EPP)

15.9% KESK (ALDE) 15%

13.3% VIHR (Greens/EFA)

10% 10.0% PS (ECR) 9.5% VAS (GUE-NGL)

5% 4.1% KD 3.4% SFP (RKP) (ALDE)

1.1% SIN 0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 Early Sept. 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average Average

KD – This party is a member of the European People’s Party (EPP) but not part of the EPP group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP. SIN – This party is a member of the Alliance of Conservatives and Reformists in Europe (ACRE) but not part of the ECR group. They do not currently have any seats in the EP.

Sweden Voting intentions

23/01/2019 Average of national polls

S 30.3%

SD 19.4%

M 18.5%

V 8.0%

C 7.5%

KD 7.4%

MP 4.0%

L 3.7%

Other parties 1.5%

23/01/2019 S (S&D) MP (Greens/EFA) M (EPP) L (ALDE) SD (ECR) C (ALDE) V (GUE/NGL) KD (EPP) FI (S&D)

35%

30% 30.3% S (S&D)

25%

20% 19.4% SD (ECR) 18.5% M (EPP)

15%

10% 8.0% V (GUE/NGL) 7.5% C (ALDE) 7.4% KD (EPP)

5% 4.0% MP (Greens/EFA) 3.7% L (ALDE)

0% February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 December 2018 January 2019 Average Average Average Average Average National results Average Average Average Average

Annex – Voting intention polls used

National results Voting intention polls used Belgium Country: BE

Voting intentions: National CD&V 15,7% Groen 13,8% Polling firm: Ipsos N-VA 30,2% sp. a 9,7% FW start date: 13/12/2018 Vl. Belang 12,0% FW end date: 17/12/2018 Open VLD 11,6% Publication date: 20/12/2018 PVDA+ 5,5% Other 1,5% No. interviews: 1000

Mode: Online Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 3,2%

https://www.nieuwsblad.be/cnt/dmf20181220_04053102

Country: BE

Voting intentions: National CD&V 18,7% Groen 16,0% Polling firm: Kantar TNS N-VA 28,3% sp. a 9,2% FW start date: 19/11/2018 Vl. Belang 7,6% FW end date: 08/12/2018 Open VLD 17,5% Publication date: 18/12/2018 PVDA+ 2,5% Other 0,2% No. interviews: 1038

Mode: Telephone Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 3,1%

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2018/12/17/n-va-blijft-grootste-in-vlaanderen-groen-rukt-verder-op-en- sp-a/

Voting intention polls used

Country: BE

Voting intentions: National CD&V 14,6% Groen 12,2% Polling firm: Ipsos N-VA 28,0% sp. a 12,3% FW start date: 27/11/2018 Vl. Belang 11,7% FW end date: 03/12/2018 Open VLD 13,4% Publication date: 07/12/2018 PVDA+ 6,2% Other 1,6% No. interviews: 998

Mode: Online Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 3,1%

https://www.rtl.be/info/belgique/politique/grand-barometre-ecolo-premier-parti-de-bruxelles- 1083126.aspx

Voting intention polls used

Country: BE

Voting intentions: National PS 25,4% MR 19,9% Polling firm: Kantar TNS cdH 10,4% ECOLO 19,7% FW start date: 19/11/2018 PTB 14,0% FW end date: 08/12/2018 DéFI 3,3% Publication date: 18/12/2018 La Droite PP 5,1% No. interviews: 1016 Other 2,2%

Mode: Telephone Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 3,1%

https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2018/12/17/mr-en-ps-boeren-achteruit-ecolo-brengt-groene-golf-in- wallonie/

Country: BE

Voting intentions: National PS 24,9% MR 20,7% Polling firm: Ipsos cdH 11,3% ECOLO 13,5% FW start date: 27/11/2018 PTB 13,1% FW end date: 03/12/2018 DéFI 4,2% Publication date: 07/12/2018 La Droite 2,3% PP 6,2% No. interviews: 1003 Other 3,8%

Mode: Online Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 3,1%

https://www.rtl.be/info/belgique/politique/grand-barometre-ecolo-premier-parti-de-bruxelles- 1083126.aspx\

Bulgaria Voting intention polls used

Country: BG

Voting intentions: European BSP // БСП 30,9% DPS // ДПС 10,6% Polling firm: Alfa Research GERB // ГЕРБ 33,2% Coal RB // Рб (BND + UDF et al. ) FW start date: 14/12/2018 ABV // АБВ FW end date: 19/12/2018 DOST // ДОСТ Publication date: 10/01/2019 Movement 21 //Движение 21 DSB // ДСБ No. interviews: 1027 Volya // Воля 3,9% Coal UP // ОП (IMRO + NFSB et al.) 6,0% Mode: Face to face Vazrazhdane // Възраждане Sample: Random Coal DB // Дб (DSB + Yes Bulgaria et al.) 5,6%

Margin of error: +/- NA

https://www.mediapool.bg/alfa-risarch-krehka-razlika-mezhdu-gerb-i-bsp-na-evrovota-news288423.html

Czech Republic Voting intention polls used

Country: CZ

Voting intentions: National ODS 14,5% ČSSD 9,5% Polling firm: CVVM KSČM 10,0% KDU-ČSL 4,0% FW start date: 01/12/2018 TOP 09 4,5% FW end date: 13/12/2018 ANO 2011 33,5% Publication date: 20/12/2018 SZ 1,0% Piráti 14,0% No. interviews: 743 Svobodní 1,0% SPD 4,0% Mode: Face to face STAN 3,0% Sample: Random Other 1,0%

Margin of error: +/- 3%

https://cvvm.soc.cas.cz/media/com_form2content/documents/c2/a4785/f9/pv181220.pdf

Country: CZ

Voting intentions: National ODS 13,5% ČSSD 7,5% Polling firm: Median KSČM 7,0% KDU-ČSL 5,5% FW start date: 10/11/2018 TOP 09 5,0% FW end date: 09/12/2018 ANO 2011 29,5% Publication date: 11/12/2018 SZ 0,5% Piráti 13,0% No. interviews: 722 Svobodní 1,5% SPD 10,0% Mode: Face to face STAN 6,0% Sample: Quota Other 1,0%

Margin of error: +/- 4%

http://www.median.eu/cs/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/MEDIAN_Snemovni_volebni_model_2018_11.pdf

Denmark Voting intention polls used

Country: DK

Voting intentions: European A (S) 22,5% B (RV) 6,1% Polling firm: YouGov C (KF) 4,8% F (SF) 6,3% FW start date: 03/01/2019 O (DF) 18,0% FW end date: 06/01/2019 I (LA) 4,5% Publication date: 23/01/2019 V 19,6% Ø (EL) 8,0% No. interviews: 1338 K (KD) Å 3,7% Mode: Online D (NB) Sample: Quota N 5,4%

Margin of error: +/- 3%

https://www.avisen.dk/jeppe-kofod-og-morten-loekkegaard-trodser-de-europae_534926.aspx

Germany Voting intention polls used

Country: DE

Voting intentions: European CDU/CSU 35,0% SPD 15,0% Polling firm: Forsa GRÜNE 20,0% DIE LINKE 6,0% FW start date: 09/01/2019 FDP 8,0% FW end date: 11/01/2019 PIRATEN Publication date: 14/01/2019 AfD 10,0% FREIE WÄHLER No. interviews: 1505 Tierschutzpartei NPD Mode: Telephone ÖDP Sample: Random Die PARTEI Other 6,0% Margin of error: +/- Unknown

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/europawahl.htm

Estonia Voting intention polls used

Country: EE

Voting intentions: National ER 27,0% KE 27,0% Polling firm: Norstat Isamaa 7,0% SDE 10,0% FW start date: 07/01/2019 EER 2,0% FW end date: 13/01/2019 EKRE 20,0% Publication date: 16/01/2019 EVA 0,0% Eesti 200 2,0% No. interviews: 1071 Elurikkuse erakond Other 5,0% Mode: Telephone/online Sample: Random/quota

Margin of error: +/- 3%

http://www.inst.ee/uudised/plakatiaktsioon-kukutas-eesti-200-toetuse-kahele-protsendile

Country: EE

Voting intentions: National ER 24,4% KE 23,3% Polling firm: Kantar Emor Isamaa 8,0% SDE 11,8% FW start date: 04/01/2019 EER 3,3% FW end date: 08/01/2019 EKRE 20,2% Publication date: 10/01/2019 EVA 1,4% Eesti 200 6,6% No. interviews: 1340 Other 1,0% Mode: Online Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 2,4%

https://www.postimees.ee/6495539/reformierakond-kerkis-taas-reitinguliidriks

Voting intention polls used

Country: EE

Voting intentions: National ER 20,0% KE 26,0% Polling firm: Turu-uuringute AS Isamaa 9,0% SDE 12,0% FW start date: 03/01/2019 EER 1,0% FW end date: 09/01/2019 EKRE 20,0% Publication date: 09/01/2019 EVA 1,0% Eesti 200 7,0% No. interviews: 1009 Other 4,0% Mode: Missing Sample: Missing

Margin of error: +/- Missing

http://www.inst.ee/uudised/aasta-esimesed-erakondade-reitingud

Ireland Voting intention polls used

Country: IE

Voting intentions: National FF 29,0% FG 31,0% Polling firm: B&A LAB 5,0% GP 3,0% FW start date: 06/12/2018 SF 17,0% FW end date: 18/12/2018 Independents 10,0% Publication date: 23/12/2018 SD 2,0% IA 1,5% No. interviews: 911 S-PBP 1,5% Other Mode: Face to face Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 3%

/banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/Sunday-Times-Report-22nd-Dec-2018.pdf

Country: IE

Voting intentions: National FF 26,0% FG 30,0% Polling firm: B&A LAB 4,0% GP 2,0% FW start date: 04/01/2019 SF 20,0% FW end date: 15/01/2019 Independents 13,0% Publication date: 20/01/2019 SD 1,0% IA 2,0% No. interviews: 907 S-PBP 2,0% Other Mode: Face to face Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 3%

banda.ie/wp-content/uploads/Sunday-Times-January-Report-2019.pdf

Greece Voting intention polls used

Country: EL

Voting intentions: National N.D. // Ν.Δ. 37,3% Coal. KINAL // ΚΙΝΑΛ (PA.SO.K. + 7,4% DI.SI. + KI.DI.SO.) Polling firm: Marc K.K.E. // K.K.E. 6,9% SY.RIZ.A. // ΣΥ.ΡΙΖ.Α. 26,9% FW start date: 14/01/2019 X.A. // X.A. 7,4% FW end date: 16/01/2019 AN.EL. // ΑΝ.ΕΛ. 1,7% Publication date: 21/01/2019 E.K. // E.K. 2,7% E.L. // E.Λ. 2,6% No. interviews: 824 LA.E. // ΛΑ.Ε. 1,4% To Potami // To Πoτάμι 2,2% Mode: Telephone Plefsi Eleftherias // Πλεύση Ελευθερίας Sample: Quota ANT.AR.SY.A. // ΑΝΤ.ΑΡ.ΣΥ.Α. Laos Margin of error: +/- 3% Other 3,5%

https://www.protothema.gr/politics/article/855759/galop-marc-gia-protothemagr-ekloges-tora-zita-to-65- ton-politon/

Country: EL

Voting intentions: National N.D. // Ν.Δ. 42,5% Coal. KINAL // ΚΙΝΑΛ (PA.SO.K. + DI.SI. + KI.DI.SO.) 5,1% Polling firm: Opinion Poll K.K.E. // K.K.E. 5,5% SY.RIZ.A. // ΣΥ.ΡΙΖ.Α. 22,2% FW start date: 10/01/2019 X.A. // X.A. 5,8% FW end date: 14/01/2019 AN.EL. // ΑΝ.ΕΛ. 0,5% Publication date: 16/01/2019 E.K. // E.K. 2,0% E.L. // E.Λ. 3,0% No. interviews: 1202 LA.E. // ΛΑ.Ε. 1,8% To Potami // To Πoτάμι 0,9% Mode: Telephone Plefsi Eleftherias // Πλεύση Ελευθερίας 2,0% Sample: Quota ANT.AR.SY.A. // ΑΝΤ.ΑΡ.ΣΥ.Α. Laos 1,8% Margin of error: +/- 3% Other 6,9%

http://www.capital.gr/politiki/3338461/opinion-poll-anoigei-i-psalida-uper-tis-nd-stis-15-monades

Voting intention polls used

Country: EL

Voting intentions: National N.D. // Ν.Δ. 37,9% Coal. KINAL // ΚΙΝΑΛ (PA.SO.K. + 7,9% DI.SI. + KI.DI.SO.) Polling firm: Pulse RC K.K.E. // K.K.E. 6,8% SY.RIZ.A. // ΣΥ.ΡΙΖ.Α. 26,0% FW start date: 18/12/2018 X.A. // X.A. 7,9% FW end date: 20/12/2018 AN.EL. // ΑΝ.ΕΛ. 1,7% Publication date: 20/12/2018 E.K. // E.K. 2,3% E.L. // E.Λ. 2,3% No. interviews: 1359 LA.E. // ΛΑ.Ε. To Potami // To Πoτάμι 1,7% Mode: Telephone Plefsi Eleftherias // Πλεύση Ελευθερίας Sample: Missing ANT.AR.SY.A. // ΑΝΤ.ΑΡ.ΣΥ.Α. 1,1% Laos Margin of error: +/- Missing Other 4,5%

http://www.skai.gr/news/politics/article/392732/epestrepse-se-dipsifio-provadisma-i-nd-pos-pane-ta-alla- kommata/#ixzz5aGdKEKqo8

Spain Voting intention polls used

Country: ES

Voting intentions: National PSOE/ PSC 23,2% PP 21,5% Polling firm: Invymark Coal. UP (Podemos + IU et al.) 14,4% EAJ-PNV 0,0% FW start date: 14/01/2019 ERC 0,0% FW end date: 18/01/2019 EH Bildu 0,0% Publication date: 20/01/2019 C's 23,0% PDeCAT 0,0% No. interviews: Missing Vox 8,9% Other 9,0% Mode: Telephone Sample: Missing

Margin of error: +/- Missing

https://www.lasexta.com/noticias/nacional/psoe-y-ciudadanos-empatarian-en-intencion-de-voto-si-se- celebrasen-hoy-elecciones-generales-video_201901205c447a0b0cf2df24b2447c1d.html

Country: ES

Voting intentions: National PSOE/ PSC 25,1% PP 18,2% Polling firm: Simple Lógica Coal. UP (Podemos + IU et al.) 14,0% EAJ-PNV 0,0% FW start date: 03/01/2019 ERC 0,0% FW end date: 09/01/2019 EH Bildu 0,0% Publication date: 11/01/2019 C's 17,9% PDeCAT 0,0% No. interviews: 1042 Vox 11,5% Other 13,3% Mode: Telephone Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 3,1%

http://www.simplelogica.com/es/intencion-de-voto-y-valoracion-de-lideres-politicos-enero-2019/

Voting intention polls used

Country: ES

Voting intentions: National PSOE/ PSC 24,1% PP 23,8% Polling firm: Celeste Tel Coal. UP (Podemos + IU et al.) 16,1% EAJ-PNV 1,0% FW start date: 02/01/2019 ERC 2,8% FW end date: 08/01/2019 EH Bildu 0,7% Publication date: 10/01/2019 C's 19,6% PDeCAT 1,5% No. interviews: 1100 Vox 8,1% Other 2,3% Mode: Telephone Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 2,5%

https://www.eldiario.es/politica/Encuesta-electoral-Celeste-Tel-enero_0_855315292.html

Country: ES

Voting intentions: National PSOE/ PSC 22,4% PP 18,3% Polling firm: Sociométrica Coal. UP (Podemos + IU et al.) 17,1% EAJ-PNV 1,2% FW start date: 24/12/2018 ERC 3,2% FW end date: 31/12/2018 EH Bildu 0,9% Publication date: 08/01/2019 C's 18,5% PDeCAT 1,4% No. interviews: 1800 Vox 12,5% Other 4,5% Mode: Telephone Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 2%

http://sociometrica.es/2019/01/ene19-estimacion-de-voto-y-escanos-en-espana-en-elecciones-generales/

Voting intention polls used

Country: ES

Voting intentions: National PSOE/ PSC 28,9% PP 19,1% Polling firm: CIS Coal. UP (Podemos + IU et al.) 14,9% EAJ-PNV 1,6% FW start date: 01/12/2018 ERC 4,7% FW end date: 12/12/2018 EH Bildu 1,1% Publication date: 04/01/2019 C's 17,9% PDeCAT 1,4% No. interviews: 2984 Vox 3,7% Other 6,7% Mode: Face to face Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 1,80%

http://datos.cis.es/pdf/Es3234mar_A.pdf

Country: ES

Voting intentions: National PSOE/ PSC 22,6% PP 19,2% Polling firm: Sigma Dos Coal. UP (Podemos + IU et al.) 15,8% EAJ-PNV 1,0% FW start date: 21/12/2018 ERC 3,6% FW end date: 27/12/2018 EH Bildu 0,0% Publication date: 02/01/2019 C's 18,8% PDeCAT 1,2% No. interviews: 1000 Vox 12,9% Other 4,9% Mode: Telephone Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 3%

https://www.sigmados.com/vox-entraria-en-el-congreso-con-el-13-de-los-votos/

France Voting intention polls used

Country: FR

Voting intentions: European FI 8,0% PS+PRG 5,0% Polling firm: Elabe EELV 8,5% LR 11,5% FW start date: 22/01/2019 RN 17,5% FW end date: 23/01/2019 DLF 3,5% Publication date: 23/01/2019 Coal. LREM+MODEM 22,5% PCF 2,0% No. interviews: 1000 LP 0,5% UDI 3,0% Mode: Online Générations.s 1,5% Sample: Quota Mouvement des "Gilets jaunes" 13,0% Other 3,5% Margin of error: +/- 3%

https://www.bfmtv.com/politique/sondage-bfmtv-la-liste-laremmodem-en-tete-des-intentions-de-vote- pour-les-europeennes-devant-le-rn-1618214.html

Country: FR

Voting intentions: European FI 7,0% PS+PRG 4,5% Polling firm: IFOP EELV 6,5% LR 10,0% FW start date: 08/01/2019 RN 18,5% FW end date: 09/01/2019 DLF 6,0% Publication date: 16/01/2019 Coal. LREM+MODEM 23,0% PCF 2,5% No. interviews: 934 LP 1,5% UDI 3,5% Mode: Online Générations.s 2,5% Sample: Quota Mouvement des "Gilets jaunes" 7,5% Other 7,0% Margin of error: +/- 5%

https://www.ifop.com/publication/lintention-de-vote-a-lelection-europeenne-de-mai- 2019/https://www.ifop.com/publication/lintention-de-vote-a-lelection-europeenne-de-mai-2019

Croatia Voting intention polls used

Country: HR

Voting intentions: National HDZ 33,5% HSS 3,0% Polling firm: Promocija plus SDP 18,6% HNS 2,0% FW start date: Beg. Jan 2019 IDS - DDI 1,6% FW end date: Beg. Jan 2019 MOST 8,3% Publication date: 10/01/2019 PAMETNO 2,0% ŽIVI ZID 15,8% No. interviews: 1300 Bandić Milan 365 2,2% GLAS 1,7% Mode: Telephone NHR 3,3% Sample: Random Other 8,0%

Margin of error: +/- 3%

https://promocija-plus.com/hr/vijesti/hdz-cvrsto-na-vrhu-nastavak-negativnog-trenda-sdp-a-cro- demoskop-za-rtl-sijecanj-2019.-28

Country: HR

Voting intentions: National HDZ 31,6% HSS 3,9% Polling firm: Ipsos SDP 16,2% HNS 2,0% FW start date: 01/12/2018 IDS - DDI 1,7% FW end date: 20/12/2018 MOST 6,9% Publication date: 24/12/2018 PAMETNO 2,7% ŽIVI ZID 16,3% No. interviews: 982 Bandić Milan 365 3,3% GLAS 1,2% Mode: Telephone NHR 1,1% Sample: Random Other 13,1%

Margin of error: +/- 3%

https://dnevnik.hr/vijesti/hrvatska/rezultati-crobarometra-za-prosinac-hdz-najjaci-zivi-zid-i-sdp-na-drugom- mjestu---543474.html

Italy Voting intention polls used

Country: IT

Voting intentions: European LEGA 32,3% PD 18,0%

Polling firm: Bidimedia FI 8,3%

FdI 3,6% FW start date: 07/01/2019 M5S 24,2% FW end date: 10/01/2019 +Europa 4,2% Publication date: 18/01/2019 PaP Articolo 1 - MDP 1,5% No. interviews: 1.096

Mode: Online Other 7,9% Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 3,0%

http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/GestioneDomande.aspx

Country: IT

Voting intentions: European LEGA 30,6% PD 18,5%

Polling firm: EMG FI 8,8%

FdI 4,4% FW start date: 15/01/2019 M5S 26,6% FW end date: 15/01/2019 +Europa 2,1% Publication date: 17/01/2019 PaP 1,8% Articolo - MDP No. interviews: 1.794

Mode: Online Other 7,2% Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 2,3%

http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/GestioneDomande.aspx

Italy Voting intention polls used

Country: IT

Voting intentions: European LEGA 32,2% PD 17,3%

Polling firm: SWG spa FI 8,2%

FdI 4,2% FW start date: 09/01/2019 M5S 25,2% FW end date: 14/01/2019 +Europa 3,2% Publication date: 14/01/2019 PaP 2,5% Articolo - MDP 3,1% No. interviews: 1.500

Mode: Online/Telephone Other 4,1% Sample: Random/Quota

Margin of error: +/- 2,5%

http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/GestioneDomande.aspx

Country: IT

Voting intentions: European LEGA 31,5% PD 17,5%

Polling firm: Istituto Piepoli FI 10,0%

FdI 3,5% FW start date: 08/01/2019 M5S 28,0% FW end date: 08/01/2019 +Europa 2,0% Publication date: 13/01/2019 PaP Articolo - MDP 2,5% No. interviews: 505

Mode: Online/Telephone Other 5,0% Sample: Random/Quota

Margin of error: +/- 4,4%

http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/GestioneDomande.aspx

Italy Voting intention polls used

Country: IT

Voting intentions: European LEGA 31,0% PD 19,1%

Polling firm: Greta D'Adda FI 8,3%

FdI 4,1% FW start date: 08/01/2019 M5S 26,1% FW end date: 08/01/2019 +Europa 2,0% Publication date: 10/01/2019 PaP 2,0% Articolo - MDP No. interviews: 1.540

Mode: Online Other 7,4% Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 2,5%

http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/GestioneDomande.aspx

Country: IT

Voting intentions: European LEGA 32,2% PD 17,3%

Polling firm: SWG FI 8,3%

FdI 3,8% FW start date: 03/01/2019 M5S 26,3% FW end date: 07/01/2019 +Europa 2,9% Publication date: 07/01/2019 PaP Articolo 1 - MDP 2,8% No. interviews: 1.500

Mode: Online/Telephone Other 6,4% Sample: Random/Quota

Margin of error: +/- 2,5%

http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/GestioneDomande.aspx

Italy Voting intention polls used

Country: IT

Voting intentions: European LEGA 33,7% PD 16,8% Sondaggi Polling firm: FI 7,3% Bidimedia - Bi3 FdI 3,8% FW start date: 17/12/2018 M5S 24,8% FW end date: 21/12/2018 +Europa 4,2% Publication date: 24/12/2018 PaP Articolo 1 - MDP 1,4% No. interviews: 1.018

Mode: Online Other 8,0% Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 3,1%

http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/GestioneDomande.aspx

Country: IT

Voting intentions: European LEGA 31,5% PD 17,1%

Polling firm: TWIG srl FI 10,2%

FdI 3,0% FW start date: 18/12/2018 M5S 26,3% FW end date: 21/12/2018 +Europa 2,9% Publication date: 23/12/2018 PaP Articolo 1 - MDP No. interviews: 1.001

Mode: Online/Telephone Other 9,0% Sample: Random/Quota

Margin of error: +/- 3,1%

http://www.sondaggipoliticoelettorali.it/GestioneDomande.aspx

Cyprus Voting intention polls used

Country: CY

Voting intentions: National DI.SY. // ΔΗ.ΣΥ. 39,0% A.K.E.L. // Α.Κ.Ε.Λ. 18,0% Polling firm: CYMAR DI.KO. // ΔΗ.ΚΟ. 15,0% K.A. // K.A. 2,0% FW start date: 10/09/2018 EDEK // ΕΔΕΚ 1,0% FW end date: 20/09/2018 E.LA.M. // Ε.ΛΑ.Μ. 11,0% Publication date: 21/09/2018 Symmaxia Politon // Συμμαχία Πολιτών 2,0% KOSP //ΚΟΣΠ 4,0% No. interviews: 500 Other 8,0%

Mode: Telephone Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 4%

https://www.stockwatch.com.cy/el/article/oikonomia-paideia-politika/dimoskopisi-i-krisi-stin-paideia- allazei-politiko-skiniko

Latvia Voting intention polls used

Country: LV

Voting intentions: National Coal. JV (V. et al.) 5,9% Coal. NA (TB/LNNK + VL!) 9,1% Polling firm: SKDS SC 29,0% Coal. ZZS (LZS + LZP) 9,3% FW start date: 01/12/2018 NSL 0,0% FW end date: 12/12/2019 LRA 4,2% Publication date: 28/12/2018 KPV LV 14,6% JKP 12,5% No. interviews: 900 Coal. AP! (Par! + Latvijas attīstībai et al.) 8,7% LKS 3,4% Mode: Online Progresīvie 3,2% Sample: Random Latviešu Nacionālisti Par Alternatīvu Margin of error: +/- Missing Apvienība SKG Rīcības partija LCP

https://www.lsm.lv/raksts/zinas/latvija/decembri-popularakas-partijas-saskana-kpv-lv-un-jkp.a304441/

Lithuania Voting intention polls used

Country: LT

Voting intentions: National DP 10,8% LLRA-KŠS (AWPL) 3,9% Polling firm: Vilmorus LRLS 3,8% LSDP 8,9% FW start date: 01/12/2018 LVŽS 23,2% FW end date: 09/12/2018 TT 10,3% Publication date: 15/12/2018 TS-LKD 28,6% LCP 5,8% No. interviews: 1025 LSDDP 3,8% Other 0,9% Mode: Face to face Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 3%

https://www.delfi.lt/news/daily/lithuania/partiju-reitinguose-du-neisstumiami-lyderiai.d?id=79875553

Luxembourg National election results used

Country: LU

Election: National Déi Gréng 15.1% LSAP 17.6% Election date: 14/10/2018 DP 16.9% Déi Lénk 5.5% CSV 28.3% ADR 8.3% Piraten 6.5% KPL 1.3% Demokratie 0.3% Déi Konservativ 0.3% Other 0.0%

https://elections.public.lu/fr.html

Hungary Voting intention polls used

Country: HU

Voting intentions: National DK 8,0% Coal. FIDESZ+KDNP 53,0% Polling firm: Századvég JOBBIK 13,0% LMP 5,0% FW start date: 07/01/2019 MKKP FW end date: 13/01/2019 Momentum Publication date: 17/01/2019 Coal. MSZP + Párbeszéd 12,0% Mi Hazánk No. interviews: 1000

Mode: Telephone Sample: Random Other 9,0%

Margin of error: +/- 3%

https://szazadveg.hu/hu/kutatasok/az-alapitvany-kutatasai/piackutatas-kozvelemeny-kutatas/stabil-a- kormanypartok-tamogatottsaga

Country: HU

Voting intentions: National DK 8,0% Coal. FIDESZ+KDNP 48,0% Polling firm: ZRI JOBBIK 17,0% LMP 4,0% FW start date: 04/01/2019 MKKP 3,0% FW end date: 11/01/2019 Momentum 5,0% Publication date: 16/01/2019 Coal. MSZP + Párbeszéd 14,0% Mi Hazánk 1,0% No. interviews: 1000

Mode: Face to face Sample: Random Other

Margin of error: +/- 3%

http://www.zaveczresearch.hu/a-partlistat-biztosan-vezeto-fidesz-tamogatokat-veszitett/

Malta Voting intention polls used

Country: MT

Voting intentions: National PN 33,2% PL-MLP 65,1% Misco International Polling firm: Limited AD 0,9% PD 0,8% FW start date: 07/01/2019 Other 0,0% FW end date: 14/01/2019 Publication date: Not published

No. interviews: 500

Mode: Telephone Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 5%

Not published

The Netherlands Voting intention polls used

Country: NL

Voting intentions: National CDA 10,6% PvdA 6,6% Polling firm: Kantar Public SP 7,6% VVD 17,8% FW start date: 11/01/2019 GL 12,7% FW end date: 15/01/2019 PVV 10,9% Publication date: 22/01/2019 D66 9,3% PvdD 3,1% No. interviews: 1061 CU 4,9% SGP 1,7% Mode: Online 50+ 2,7% Sample: Random DENK 3,6% FvD 7,9% Margin of error: +/- 3%

Source not available

Country: NL

Voting intentions: National CDA 9,6% PvdA 5,8% Polling firm: Ipsos SP 7,6% VVD 18,6% FW start date: 14/12/2018 GL 10,6% FW end date: 17/12/2018 PVV 12,5% Publication date: 21/12/2018 D66 9,4% PvdD 5,5% No. interviews: 1013 CU 4,4% SGP 2,5% Mode: Telephone 50+ 3,7% Sample: Random DENK 1,9% FvD 6,9% Margin of error: +/- 3%

https://www.ipsos.com/nl-nl/politieke-barometer

Austria Voting intention polls used

Country: AT

Voting intentions: European SPÖ 26,0% ÖVP 27,0% Polling firm: Research Affairs FPÖ 23,0% Grüne 7,0% FW start date: 06/12/2018 Neos 9,0% FW end date: 12/12/2018 JETZT 2,0% Publication date: 16/12/2018 Other 6,0%

No. interviews: 1.000

Mode: Online Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 3.1%

https://neuwal.com/wahlumfragen/wahlumfrage.php?uid=1477

Poland Voting intention polls used

Country: PL

Voting intentions: European SLD 3,9% PO Polling firm: IPSOS PSL 5,5% Coal. ZP 41,5% FW start date: 12/12/2018 Coal. Wolność + RN 3,6% FW end date: 14/12/2018 Razem 1,9% Publication date: 16/12/2018 .N Kukuiz'15 5,5% No. interviews: 1007 RN Coal. Koalicja Obywatelska 29,1% Mode: Telephone Robert Biedroń 7,5% Sample: Quota Teraz! 1,2% Ruch Prawdziwa Europa

Margin of error: +/- 3% Other 0,3%

https://oko.press/pis-wygrywa-choc-traci-rydzyk-niewazny-biedron-rosnie-mlodzi-brunatnieja-sondaz-oko- press/

Portugal Voting intention polls used

Country: PT

Voting intentions: National BE 7,6% Coal. CDU (PCP + PEV) 7,1% Polling firm: Eurosondagem PS 40,0% PSD 24,8% FW start date: 02/01/2019 CDS-PP 7,1% FW end date: 09/01/2019 PAN 1,9% Publication date: 11/01/2019 Aliança 4,0% Other 7,5% No. interviews: 1010

Mode: Telephone Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 3%

https://www.eurosondagem.pt/inform/barometro.htm

Country: PT

Voting intentions: National BE 9,2% Coal. CDU (PCP + PEV) 7,5% Polling firm: Aximage PS 39,3% PSD 25,1% FW start date: 04/01/2019 CDS-PP 9,8% FW end date: 07/01/2019 PAN 3,6% Publication date: 07/01/2019 Aliança Other 5,5% No. interviews: 608

Mode: Telephone Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 4%

https://www.cmjornal.pt/multimedia/graficos/detalhe/sondagem---intencao-de-voto-no-psd-perto-do- minimo-historico

Romania Voting intention polls used

Country: RO

Voting intentions: National PSD 33,0% ALDE 9,0% Polling firm: CURS PNL 20,0% UDMR (RMDSZ) 6,0% FW start date: 24/11/2018 PMP 5,0% FW end date: 09/12/2018 USR 7,0% Publication date: 17/12/2018 Pro Romania 9,0% RO+ 5,0% No. interviews: 1067 Other 6,0%

Mode: Telephone Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 3%

https://curs.ro/ro/sondaj-omnibus-nov-dec-2018/

Slovenia Voting intention polls used

Country: SI

Voting intentions: National SDS 25,8% SD 10,3% Polling firm: Mediana DeSUS 3,2% N.Si 8,7% FW start date: 03/01/2019 SNS 6,6% FW end date: 10/01/2019 SMC 5,8% Publication date: 14/01/2019 SAB 5,4% LEVICA 10,9% No. interviews: 743 Lista M.Š. 22,2% Other 1,0% Mode: Telephone Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 5%

https://www.delo.si/novice/slovenija/lms-se-je-odlepila-od-partneric-136649.html

Country: SI

Voting intentions: National SDS 23,8% SD 16,5% Polling firm: Ninamedia DeSUS 4,1% N.Si 5,8% FW start date: 08/01/2019 SNS 2,4% FW end date: 10/01/2019 SMC 4,4% Publication date: 12/01/2019 SAB 3,5% LEVICA 10,0% No. interviews: 700 Lista M.Š. 25,3% Other 4,4% Mode: Telephone Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- Missing

https://www.rtvslo.si/slovenija/vox-populi-sarec-po-priljubljenosti-prehitel-pahorja-lms-pa-sds/477864

Slovakia Voting intention polls used

Country: SK

Voting intentions: National KDH 6,5% SaS 13,3% Polling firm: FOCUS SNS 9,2% SMER-SD 21,7% FW start date: 01/12/2018 SMK-MPK 3,3% FW end date: 09/12/2018 OL'aNO + NOVA 10,5% Publication date: 14/12/2018 MOST-HÍD 5,2% L'SNS 9,2% No. interviews: 1019 Sme Rodina 9,0% PS 5,1% Mode: Face to face SPOLU 4,1% Sample: Quota SKS 0,1% SZS 0,9% Margin of error: +/- 1.3-2.9% KSS 0,5% MKDA-MKDSZ 0,2% Other 1,2%

http://www.focus- research.sk/files/258_Volebne%20preferencie%20politickych%20stran_december2018.pdf

Finland Voting intention polls used

Country: FI

Voting intentions: National KESK 15,6% KOK 19,5% Polling firm: Kantar TNS SDP 20,9% VAS 9,4% FW start date: 13/12/2018 VIHR 12,9% FW end date: 11/01/2019 SFP (RKP) 4,3% Publication date: 16/01/2019 PS 9,7% KD 4,0% No. interviews: 2282 SIN 1,1% Other 2,6% Mode: Telephone Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 2%

https://www.hs.fi/politiikka/art-2000005967576.html

Country: FI

Voting intentions: National KESK 16,1% KOK 19,6% Polling firm: Taloustutkimus SDP 21,2% VAS 9,5% FW start date: 10/12/2018 VIHR 13,6% FW end date: 08/01/2019 SFP (RKP) 2,5% Publication date: 10/01/2019 PS 10,2% KD 4,2% No. interviews: 2443 SIN 1,0% Other 2,1% Mode: Telephone Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 2%

https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-10588026

Sweden Voting intention polls used

Country: SE

Voting intentions: National V 8,5% S 29,3% Polling firm: Kantar Sifo C 6,9% L 3,6% FW start date: 14/01/2019 M 19,5% FW end date: 14/01/2019 KD 7,5% Publication date: 18/01/2019 MP 3,9% SD 19,9% No. interviews: 4317 Other 0,9%

Mode: Telephone/online Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- 3%

https://www.kantarsifo.se/sites/default/files/reports/documents/kantarsifo_vb_januari_2019.pdf

Country: SE

Voting intentions: National V 7,6% S 31,8% Polling firm: Novus C 7,6% L 3,4% FW start date: 02/01/2019 M 18,9% FW end date: 13/01/2019 KD 6,2% Publication date: 14/01/2019 MP 3,9% SD 19,2% No. interviews: 2342 Other 1,4%

Mode: Telephone Sample: Random

Margin of error: +/- Missing

https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/svt-novus-s-och-sd-har-okat-sedan-valet

Sweden Voting intention polls used

Country: SE

Voting intentions: National V 8,0% S 30,2% Polling firm: Demoskop C 6,9% L 4,5% FW start date: 02/01/2019 M 17,1% FW end date: 08/01/2019 KD 7,7% Publication date: 10/01/2019 MP 3,8% SD 19,5% No. interviews: 1614 Other 2,2%

Mode: Telephone/online Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- 2%

https://demoskop.se/aktuellt/valjarbarometern-januari-2019/

Country: SE

Voting intentions: National V 7,7% S 29,8% Polling firm: Inizio C 8,4% L 3,2% FW start date: 19/12/2018 M 18,3% FW end date: 26/12/2018 KD 8,2% Publication date: 27/12/2018 MP 4,2% SD 18,8% No. interviews: 2300 Other 1,4%

Mode: Online Sample: Quota

Margin of error: +/- N/A

https://www.aftonbladet.se/nyheter/samhalle/a/0E62EB/valjarnas-dom-kd-gar-framat--motigt-for-c