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Myanmar and the United States: Prospects for a Limited Security Partnership

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Myanmar and the United States: Prospects for a Limited Security Partnership MYANMAR AND THE UNITED STATES: PROSPECTS FOR A LIMITED SECURITY PARTNERSHIP Dr Jürgen Haacke November 2015 Table of contents In its short history, the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney has established itself as an Executive summary 01 internationally recognised authority on American studies Introduction 02 outside of the United States. Spanning the study of politics and policy, economics and business, culture and 1. The strategic context of Myanmar 04 society, the Centre fulfils its mission through education, research, public outreach, and policy initiatives. 2. Myanmar’s relations with China 10 The Centre provides knowledge and expertise in public 3. Myanmar’s relations with 18 policy issues of interest and importance to both Australia the United States and the United States through its thought leadership initiatives, one of which is the Emerging US Security 4. Myanmar: Diversifying 26 Partnerships in South-East Asia project. foreign relations Acknowledgments 5. Conclusions 28 This paper is part of a wider research and outreach project Endnotes 29 on emerging US security partnerships in South-East Asia supported by a grant from the John D. and Catherine T. About the author 36 MacArthur Foundation. The author would like to thank the Myanmar Institute of International Strategic Studies for its assistance in organising an expert workshop to review and critique an earlier version of this study in May 2015. The author would also like to thank the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation for its generous support, and the United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney for leading and organising the project on Emerging US Security Partnerships in South-East Asia. United States Studies Centre Institute Building (H03) The University of Sydney NSW 2006 Phone: +61 2 9351 7249 Email: [email protected] Twitter: @ussc Website: ussc.edu.au Cover photo: Temples of Bagan, Myanmar (iStock) Research conclusions are derived independently and authors represent their own view, rather than an institutional one of the United States Studies Centre. UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE | EMERGING US SECURITY PARTNERSHIPS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA MYANMAR AND THE UNITED STATES: PROSPECTS FOR A LIMITED SECURITY PARTNERSHIP Executive summary The prospect for the development of a limited but mutually beneficial security partnership with the United States is reasonably good, barring a major crisis in post-election Myanmar politics. Myanmar will not stray from its long held foreign policy platforms of non-alignment and neutralism, and will look to supplement relations with China and the United States with a growing network of other international and regional powers, namely Russia and Japan. The relationship between Myanmar and China is in need of repair after several ongoing disputes, culminating most recently with China’s apparent intervention in the Kokang conflict. Myanmar’s maturation from de facto alignment with China to a robust and diverse foreign policy has also changed the power dynamics between the two states. Long considered a pariah state, Myanmar has been Political relations have clearly cooled in the wake of quick to embrace an increasingly robust, mature, and Myanmar’s rapprochement with the United States, smart foreign policy platform. With non-alignment and the increasing difficulties affecting bilateral ties and neutralism at its core, Myanmar has shrugged appear to have limited military-to-military cooperation. off de facto alignment with China to improve bilateral Myanmar–US relations have come a long way under relations with the United States and other international President U Thein Sein and the Obama administration, and regional powers. Myanmar appears, due to its notwithstanding a number of major differences. geopolitical and strategic positioning, to be caught Importantly, since 2011, both sides have made policy within the dynamics inherent in the balance of power, decisions that have helped to build the foundations for interests, and intentions between China and the United the new relationship. Not only is Myanmar emerging States. as a possible security partner for the United States, but Myanmar has made promising steps down Though China–Myanmar relations are at a relative low, the long-awaited path of ongoing state-building, the extensive history and paukphaw — kinship — that democratisation, and international legitimacy. exists between these two countries will form the basis for a re-emergence in the mid to longer term. While the comprehensive strategic cooperative partnership has been invoked regularly at bilateral exchanges, the partnership seems largely rhetorical in diplomatic, political, and security terms. This report may be cited as: Jürgen Haacke, “Myanmar and the United States: Prospects for a limited security partnership,” United States Studies Centre at the University of Sydney, November 2015. 1 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE | EMERGING US SECURITY PARTNERSHIPS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA MYANMAR AND THE UNITED STATES: PROSPECTS FOR A LIMITED SECURITY PARTNERSHIP Introduction Following Myanmar’s November 2015 elections, Washington and Naypyidaw will have the opportunity to revisit discussions aimed at further strengthening bilateral relations, including security-related ties. While Myanmar should not be expected to align closely with Washington as a major security partner in mainland South-East Asia — irrespective of the parliamentary election outcomes — the prospects for the development of a limited but mutually beneficial security partnership are reasonably good barring a major crisis in post-election Myanmar politics. A substantial security partnership between Washington partnership with the United States. Firstly, such an and Naypyidaw, along the lines of other security arrangement would need to be compatible with the relationships the United States maintains with declared country’s longstanding preference for non-alignment non-aligned states in South-East Asia, would first of all and neutralism. Myanmar’s commitment to non- require a different political consensus in America. Until alignment and neutralism is not tokenism and has now this consensus has been that the United States been ideologically embedded in its foreign policy for should support Myanmar’s democratic transition but decades. While governments have practised non- not proceed with any significant military engagement alignment in different ways, they have rarely deviated until the country’s military commits unambiguously from non-alignment in practice. to withdraw from politics, with related constitutional amendments. A new consensus on Myanmar in Secondly, even on the rare occasion when Myanmar Washington seems possible, but this hinges, to was prepared to somewhat deviate in practice — for a large extent, on assessments of the November example, by relying on China and embracing a form elections and the way in which Myanmar’s political of limited alignment with Beijing during the 1990s and military elites respond to the people’s vote. Other and early-2000s — the military leadership found the factors will also matter for Washington: the dynamics situation politically unpalatable.1 Notably, such reliance of armed conflict between the Myanmar military and notwithstanding, the military government remained ethnic armed groups, or Myanmar’s many remaining wholly committed to non-alignment and neutralism in domestic challenges, including the “dark side” of its declaratory terms. political transition — such as Buddhist nationalism Thirdly, at the same time, the relationship with Beijing and the treatment of the self-identifying Rohingya — continues to be regarded as being “special,” it being which, from a US domestic political perspective, will the only one that is expressed in kinship (paukphaw) continue to court controversy and possibly restrain terms, and on which a consensus exists that the country policy choices for some time to come. must proceed with caution in its relations with China. From Myanmar’s side, a number of factors will restrain Due to this, a security partnership with the United the country from avidly pursuing a close security States, which appeared to be principally “aimed” at 2 UNITED STATES STUDIES CENTRE | EMERGING US SECURITY PARTNERSHIPS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA MYANMAR AND THE UNITED STATES: PROSPECTS FOR A LIMITED SECURITY PARTNERSHIP China, would be all the more difficult to construct, not only because of the continuing importance of China to Myanmar, but because Myanmar remains primarily focused not on external but internal security challenges. Certainly Myanmar has yet to complete the country’s long journey of state building which has arguably been the principal task of the Burmese military since independence and will remain for the foreseeable future the overwhelming security-related goal of the country’s leadership. Focusing on these challenges as a centrepiece of Myanmar–US security ties bring many of their own political difficulties for both sides. Given these points, and in view of the dramatic changes in Myanmar–US relations since 2011, this study will examine the security-related aspects of those relations and assess their prospects, especially in the context of Myanmar’s ongoing ties with China. Part One starts by locating Myanmar in the contemporary regional security dynamics of South- East and East Asia and by analysing the country’s core political-security objectives. Parts Two and Three focus on Myanmar’s relationship with China and the United States respectively. Situating the discussion historically
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