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Electric Vehicles: Technology Brief, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi ELECTRIC VEHICLES TECHNOLOGY BRIEF February 2017 www.irena.org Copyright (c) IRENA 2017 Unless otherwise stated, material in this brief may be freely used, shared, copied or reproduced, provided that all such material is clearly attributed to IRENA. Material attributed to third parties may be subject to third-party copyright and separate terms of use and restrictions. ISBN web: ISBN 978-92-95111-00-4 ISBN print: ISBN 978-92-9260-000-6 Citation: IRENA (2017), Electric Vehicles: technology brief, International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. ABOUT IRENA The International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) is an intergovernmental organisation that supports countries in their transition to a sustainable energy future, and serves as the principal platform for international co-operation, a centre of excellence, and a repository of policy, technology, resource and financial knowledge on renewable energy. IRENA promotes the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy, including bioenergy, geothermal, hydropower, ocean, solar and wind energy, in the pursuit of sustainable development, energy access, energy security and low-carbon economic growth and prosperity. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This brief benefited greatly from reviews by Dolf Gielen and Nicholas Wagner (IRENA), Holger Hesse and Peter Keil (Technical University of Munich-ESS) and Bert Witkamp (AVERE), Contributing authors: Lewis M. Fulton (UC Davis), Amr Seleem, Francisco Boshell, Alessandra Salgado and Deger Saygin (IRENA) For further information or to provide feedback: [email protected] Disclaimer This brief and the material featured herein are provided “as is”. Neither IRENA nor any of its officials, agents, data or other third-party content providers provides any warranty, including as to the accuracy, completeness, or fitness for a particular purpose or use of such material, or regarding the non-infringe- ment of third-party rights, and they accept no responsibility or liability with regard to the use of this brief and the material featured therein. The information contained herein does not necessarily represent the views of the Members of IRENA. The mention of specific companies or certain projects or products does not imply that they are endorsed or recommended by IRENA in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The des- ignations employed and the presentation of material herein do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of IRENA concerning the legal status of any region, country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Photographs from IRENA image archive. Contents Insights for Policy Makers ..........................................................................................................2 Highlights ...........................................................................................................................................5 Technology Status and Performance ....................................................................................8 Light duty electric vehicle sales .....................................................................................12 Sales of other types of electric vehicles ......................................................................15 Costs, markets and consumers .......................................................................................17 Electric Vehicle Charging and Interactions with Electricity Grids .......................20 Electric vehicles and renewable energy deployment ............................................21 The role of demand-side management ..................................................................... 26 Smart charging .....................................................................................................................27 Considering the Future: Electric Vehicle Market Projections ................................. 29 Projections of batteries and electricity demand .....................................................32 EVs and VRE: Combining for low environmental impact ................................... 34 Material requirements ....................................................................................................... 38 Achieving future EV targets: Technology and policy aspects .......................... 39 Bibliography ..................................................................................................................................44 Insights for Policy Makers » There are two main types of electric » Despite on-going battery vehicles (EV): battery electric performance improvements and vehicles (BEV) that use only cost reductions, EVs still face batteries for energy storage and potentially important obstacles. must be plugged in to be recharged, New models to be introduced and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in 2017 and 2018 will be able to (PHEV) that have both batteries and drive up to 300 kilometres (km) liquid-fuel storage and refuelling per recharge, but battery packs up systems. to 60 kilowatt-hour (kWh), even if battery costs drop from their current » The global stock of electric vehicles levels of around USD 350/ kWh to (EVs) reached 1 million during 2015 USD 150 kWh in the future, would and passed the 2 million mark in cost USD 9 000, much more than 2016. This rapid rise has been led the drive systems of today’s internal by China, the US, Japan and several combustion engine vehicles. Fuel European countries. savings will help pay this back, » The uptake of EVs is the result of especially for high-mileage drivers. several factors, including strong » Battery-electric vehicles provide technological progress, cost zero-vehicle-emissions driving reductions (especially batteries), (for both carbon dioxide (CO ) and policy support, including 2 and pollutant emissions), but purchase incentives, driving the “upstream” CO can be and parking access advantages, 2 substantial, for example in and increased public charging countries with dominant coal power infrastructure availability. generation. Electric grids must be » Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) considerably decarbonised (to dominated sales over plug-in hybrid 600 grams (g)/ kWh or less) for EVs electric vehicles in most countries to have a CO2 advantage relative until 2014, but plug-in hybrid to similar sized hybrid internal electric vehicle (PHEV) sales have combustion engine (ICE) vehicles. grown rapidly in the past two years Carbon intensities will need to and as of early 2016 were nearly continuously improve in the future, equal to BEV sales worldwide. since hybrids and other ICE vehicles PHEVs have a considerable range will also become more efficient. EVs advantage but sacrifice all-electric also produce no direct air pollution driving to achieve this. and reduce noise pollution in cities. 2 Electric Vehicles | Technology Brief » For the most benefit, EV deployment such as time-variable “smart requires four concurrent strategies: charging” and vehicle to grid (V2G) (i) electrification of vehicles; electricity supply. Such systems can (ii) provision of sufficient charging help support a global doubling of equipment; (iii) decarbonisation the share of renewable energy by of the electricity generation; and 2030 compared to 2015. (iv) integration of electric vehicles » The eventual deployment of into the grid. charging schemes such as smart » EV deployment growth would allow charging and V2G can support a higher share of variable renewable the growth of variable renewable energy (VRE) in the power system, energy and can interplay with via five areas of interaction: information communication (i) actively using the mobile battery technology (ICT) systems to storage system in the vehicle; maximise the technical features (ii) use of second-hand batteries and minimise the operation costs in a “second life” role as stationary using demand-side management battery storage systems; (iii) wide- tools. spread deployment of charging technologies and infrastructure; » REmap – a global roadmap from (iv) evolution in the charging the International Renewable behaviour of EV owners, for Energy Agency (IRENA) to double example, in which they become renewables in the energy mix – comfortable with variable charging estimates that a 160 million EVs rates and times; and (v) provision by 2030 would provide sufficient of other ancillary services from battery capacity in major markets EVs to the grid, such as frequency to support VRE at a large scale. regulation, shaving peak demand, Achieving this stock level, however, power support to enhance will be challenging and will require operation, and reserve capacity to annual sales growth rates on the secure the grid by stored energy in order of 30-40% between now and its batteries. then. To achieve this will probably » Electric vehicles create a paradigm require that EV markets achieve shift for both the transport and a “tipping point” between 2020 and power sectors, and could support 2025, when they start to rapidly variable renewable power growth increase market share relative to through different charging schemes ICE vehicles. Electric Vehicles | Technology Brief 3 » To achieve a tipping point in sales, » Assuming all these new electric EVs will likely need to achieve near- vehicles were to consume 100% parity on a first cost basis with renewable electricity, around ICE vehicles, and provide sufficient 450 terawatt-hours (TWh) per year amenities (such as driving range of additional renewable
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