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Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment Dhaka and Western Zone Transmission Grid Expansion Project (RRP BAN 51137-003) Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment October 2019 Bangladesh: Dhaka and Western Zone Transmission Grid Expansion Project ABBREVIATIONS ADB - Asian Development Bank AR4 - Fourth Assessment Report AR5 - Fifth Assessment Report BCCRF - Bangladesh climate change resilience fund BCCSAP - Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan BPDB - Bangladesh Power Development Board CCVI - Climate Change Vulnerability Index CRVA - climate risk and vulnerability assessment DESCO - Dhaka Electricity Supply Company Limited DoE - Department of Environment DPDC - Dhaka Power Distribution Company DRM - disaster risk management DRR - disaster risk reduction DWZTGEP - Dhaka and Western Zone Transmission Grid Expansion Project GCMs - general circulation models GDP - gross domestic product GHG - greenhouse gas GOB - Government of Bangladesh IPCC - intergovernmental panel on climate change NAPA - National Adaptation Programme of Action NAP - National Adaptation Plan NGO - non-governmental organization PGCB - Power Grid Company of Bangladesh Limited RCP - representative concentration pathways SLR - sea level rise SST - sea surface temperature UNFCCC - United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WB - World Bank WG - working group CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY I I. INTRODUCTION 1 A. About this Report 1 1. Overview 1 2. Scope of the Assessment 2 B. About the Concepts 2 1. Risk and Vulnerability 2 2. Climate Risk and Vulnerability on Energy Sector 3 C. Legislation Framework 3 1. Laws on Climate Change 4 2. National Plans, Programs and Initiatives 5 3. Local, State, and Regional Legislation and Initiatives 5 4. Government Documents 5 5. Additional Resources 5 6. Status under International Climate Change Law 5 II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION AND ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY 7 A. Project Profile 7 B. Country Profile 10 C. CRVA Methodology 12 1. Overall Approach 12 2. Establishing the Context 13 3. Data Inventory and Collection 13 4. Identifying Risks to Infrastructure from Climate Impacts 13 5. Evaluation of Climate Risk 14 6. Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Options & Measures 17 III. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE PROPOSED DWZTGEP 18 A. Observed Climate Variability and Change 18 1. Temperature 18 2. Precipitation 19 3. Extreme weather and Natural Hazards 20 B. Future Climate Change Projections 22 1. Global Projections 22 2. Projected Changes in Temperature in Bangladesh under RCP Scenarios 25 3. Projected Changes in Rainfall under RCP Scenarios 26 4. Projected SLR 27 5. Projected Natural Hazards 28 IV. CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 30 A. Key Climate Impacts 30 B. Climate Impacts on Project Infrastructure 33 1. General Impacts on Power Transmission Projects 33 2. Design and Operational Considerations 33 3. Transmission System Vulnerability 34 C. Climate Risk Assessment 35 V. PROPOSED MANAGEMENT AND ADAPTATION ACTIONS 39 A. Options, Measures and Priorities for Climate Risk Mitigation and Adaptation 39 B. Climate Proofing Measures 40 C. Investing in Adaptation 41 VI. PROPOSED MANAGEMENT AND ADAPTATION ACTIONS 42 ANNEX 1: GLOSSARY OF TERMS 44 List of Tables Table 1. Risk Assessment Matrix ..............................................................................................14 Table 2. Qualitative measures of Likelihood ..............................................................................15 Table 3. Qualitative Measures of Consequence ........................................................................16 Table 4. Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios ....................................................23 Table 5. Global Climate Change Predictions Under RCP8.5 (A High Emission Scenario) and RCP2.6 (A Low Emission Scenario) for the Mid-21st Century (2046-2065). ...............................24 Table 6. Electricity Transmission System Vulnerability ..............................................................34 Table 7. Climate Risk Assessment (2030 and 2050) .................................................................36 Table 8. Potential Climate Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Measures ........................................39 Table 9. Indicative Cost of Climate Change Adaptation Measures ............................................41 List of Figures Figure 1. Comparison of vulnerability (AR4) and climate risk (AR5) ........................................... 3 Figure 2: The project locations map ........................................................................................... 8 Figure 3. Verisk Maplecroft Global Climate Change Vulnerability Index 2016 ...........................12 Figure 4. Observed Global Temperature Change (based on trends over 1901-2012) ...............18 Figure 5. Average Monthly Temperature and Rainfall for Bangladesh from 1901-2012 .............19 Figure 6. Impacts of Natural Hazards on Bangladesh (1985 – 2018) ........................................20 Figure 7. Global Temperature Projections for RCP8.5 and RCP2.6, 1950 - 2100 .....................23 Figure 8. Projected Temperature Change for RCP8.5 (High Emission) and RCP2.6 (Low Emission) Scenarios for 2081 to 2100 .......................................................................................24 Figure 9. Change in Mean Annual Temperature For 2050 for the Three RCP Scenarios ..........25 Figure 10. Annual Precipitation Over Bangladesh under RCP Scenarios from 1970 to 2100 ....26 Figure 11. Changes in Seasonal Precipitation under RCP Scenarios for Bangladesh ...............27 Figure 12. Sea Level Rise Projections for Bangladesh (1 m and 1.5 m) ....................................28 Figure 13. Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge in Bangladesh ......................................................29 Figure 14. Images of Coastal and Riverbank Erosion in Bangladesh ........................................29 Figure 15. Climate Impacts and Possible Migration Routes of Bangladesh ...............................32 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. Bangladesh is one of the country’s most likely to suffer adverse impacts from anthropogenic climate change. The country is already highly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of floods, cyclones, and droughts, and will be even more so due to climate change. 2. It experiences extreme events (tropical cyclones, storm surges, floods), rainfall variability, riverbank and coastal erosion, salt water intrusion, droughts and many other natural disasters every year. Changes in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events as well as unseasonal deviations from average weather will affect both current and future energy infrastructure and the energy sector’s profitability. 3. Threats include sea level rise (SLR- approximately, a fifth of the country consists of low-lying coastal zones within 1 meter (m) of the high-water mark), droughts, floods, and cyclones. As per World Resources Institute 2014, although Bangladesh emits 0.36% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, it is nevertheless taking steps to reduce its future emissions through the development of cleaner fuel, renewable energy and energy efficiency. The most important step will be for the government to appreciate the importance of climate change as a development issue in the short and medium term—not just an environmental issue for the long term—and to develop appropriate scientific and strategic planning initiatives keeping this in view. 4. The climate risk and vulnerability assessment (CRVA) reviews the international and national climate change modeling and emissions scenarios, assesses the existing climate conditions in Bangladesh, identifies potential impacts from climate change to the proposed Dhaka and Western Zone Transmission Grid Expansion Project (DWZTGEP), evaluates and determines the significance of the impacts and develops mitigation measures, monitoring activities, reporting requirements to ensure that such concerns are addressed in the project design and environment management plan (EMP). 5. CRVA helps identify the nature and extent to which climate change and its impacts may harm a country, region, sector or community. Therefore, CRVA is a central component of adaptation action to design the adaptation policies and projects, and to establish a baseline against which the success of adaptation policies can be monitored. 6. The project area comprises five administrative divisions and 20 districts of Bangladesh; 1 in Rajshahi division (Noagoan), 6 in Dhaka division (Dhaka, Narayangonj, Gopalganj, Madaripur, Gazipur, and Faridpur), 7 in Khulna division (Jhenaidah, Bagerhat, Kustia, Meherpur, Jessore, Satkhira, and Khulna), 3 in Barishal (Bhola, Jhalokathi and Pirojpur), and 3 districts in Rangpur division (Dinajpur, Lalmonirhat and Nilphamari). 7. The predictions from the general circulation models (GCMs) for Bangladesh are to be 1.5°C warmer and 4% wetter by the 2050s (WB, 2010). These trends, which are expected to continue (NOAA 2013b, IPCC 2012, USGCRP 2009), could restrict the supply of secure, sustainable, and affordable energy critical to the economic growth and development in Bangladesh. Two-thirds of the country is less than 5 m above sea level, and floods increasingly inundate homes, destroy farm production, close businesses, and shut down public infrastructure. It also experiences about two-fifths of the world’s storm surges every year (WB). Erosion leads to an annual loss of about 10,000 hectares of land and weakens natural coastal defenses and aquatic ecosystems. Fresh water has become scarcer in Bangladesh’s drought-prone northwest and in southwest
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