2012 Financial Services Industry Outlook
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2012 | Investment Management Industry Review About Berkshire Capital Berkshire Capital is a leading investment bank focused on M&A in the asset management and securities industries. With more completed transactions in this space than any other investment bank, we help clients find successful, long lasting partnerships. Founded in 1983, Berkshire Capital is an employee-controlled investment bank headquartered in New York with offices in Denver and London. Our partners have been with the firm an average of 12 years. We are recognized as a leading expert in the wealth management, money management, alternatives, real estate and broker/dealer industries. We believe our success as a firm is determined by the success of our clients and the durability of the partnership we help them to structure. 535 Madison Avenue, 19th Floor New York, NY 10022 (212) 207 1000 999 Eighteenth Street, Suite 3000 Denver, CO 80202 (303) 893 2899 Cayzer House 30 Buckingham Gate London, UK SW1E 6NN Berkshire Capital Securities Ltd. is+44 authorized (0)20 and 7828-2828 regulated by the Financial Services Authority. www.berkcap.com Member, FINRA / SIPC in a December 2 speech before the German Bundestag, underlining her determination to save the euro. Meanwhile, led by the Federal Reserve, a number of the GreekA fascination Tragedy with Greece has traditionally been world’s key central banks took action to chop the rates for the purview of specialists in Antiquity. This elite short-term dollar loans to the ECB at a time when many private banks and investors have cut their exposure to group, generally operating in academia, focuses Europe. on the period of Greek influence and power from Across the Atlantic, Washington was conjuring up its own around the 7th century B.C. through the conquest take on Antiquity, in the continuing Sybaritic approach it by Rome and into the several centuries after the took to spending: In fiscal 2011, the federal deficit topped death of Christ. As 2011 rolled around, and Greece the trillion-dollar mark for the third year running, with the became the center of another local financial crisis 2012 deficit projected to remain around the trillion-dollar threshold. Yet, in a global theater where virtually every with global implications, those academics had plenty patron was either screaming or thinking “fire,” the U.S. of company. Suddenly, hundreds of millions of remained a safe haven, with investors eagerly scooping people were focused on the historic nation, including up 10-year Treasury notes paying a paltry 2%. Buyers two groups of particular importance: investors and continued to include one of the world’s great creditors, policy makers. China, which holds more than $1.1 trillion worth of the instruments.Nomura “It seems the U.S. is the last man standing in this global crisis of confidence, for the time being,” commented . Forgotten, it seemed, was Standard & Poor’s controversial decision in August to downgrade by That a country with a population of 11 million people a notch the nation’s pristine long-term debt rating. and a gross domestic product (GDP) of $300 billion could command so much attention — and cause such As policy makers and regulators sought to diffuse this consternation regarding the world’s financial latest crisis, the silver lining remained hazy. Indeed, many health — adds another strange chapter to the now- observers are suggesting a protracted period of slow growth lengthy and white-knuckled saga increasingly dubbed for the U.S. and Europe. In this view, the financial tsunami the “Great Recession.” Unfortunately, the Greeks aren’t and its attendant costs has merged with two other gradually alone. Following the October bailout agreement between building waves to form a perfect economic and financial Athens and the eurozone that delivered a 50% haircut to storm that will depress economic activity for years. The first private investors holding Greek sovereign debt, two more significant tottering dominoes — Italy and Spain — saw their bond yields jump by percentage points rather than the usual and more staid basis point. Budgetary 2009 Blues 2010 2011* 2012* 2013* In Italy’s case, rates in November topped 7% on the 10- Central Government Deficits as % of GDP year bond and approached 8% on two- and five-year paper. U.S. Elsewhere in the eurozone, Portugal joined Ireland in the Euro Area Financial 11.6 10.7 10.0 9.3 8.3 Timesjunk bond heap. “Investors are increasingly loath to trust Japan the debt of many eurozone sovereigns,” wrote Economist 6.4 6.3 4.0 2.9 1.9 OECD ** economics columnist Martin Wolf. “That is the most 8.7 7.8 8.9 8.9 9.5 * Projected important lesson of recent events.” Warned the : 8.3 7.7 6.6 5.9 5.1 “The chances of the eurozone being smashed apart have ** Excludes Chile & Mexico Source: OECD risen alarmingly, thanks to financial panic, a rapidly weakening economic outlook and pigheaded brinkmanship. The odds of a safe landing are dwindling fast.” Faced with the prospect of financial disaster — and a fracturing of the eurozone — the area’s dominant powers wave is the challenge to a more robust employment market huddled in an attempt to add a key missing component posed by technology and globalization — a 21st-century to the compact: central fiscal control. By the first week of reality masked for many years by a housing and credit December, the outlines of what European Central Bank bubble that goosed consumption. The second: the looming President Mario Draghi called a “new fiscal compact” budgetary pressures posed by a graying population that has emerged that would incorporate oversight in return been promised an expensive menu of retirement benefits. for more aggressive rescue efforts by the ECB. German The response that financial probity and investors demand Chancellor Angela Merkol then laid out a similar plan from governments — significant budget cuts from recent 1 elevated levels — appears to suggest a future in which 3%), in October set 2012 growth at just 1%, down from governments have fewer resources to prime employment the 1.8% the Bundesbank figured four months earlier. In and consumptive demand. November, the European Commission placed growth in In the U.S., the two American political parties have to date the European Union as a whole at 0.6% in 2012 and 0.5% been unable or unwilling to build a consensus for action, for the euro zone, both down more than a point from June in particular as both sides prepare their sound bites ahead projections. The EU unemployment rate is expected to of this year’s presidential and congressional elections. Last remain stuck around 10%. “All main indicators point to a November, a special congressional joint committee failed stalled recovery with considerable downside risks,” the to hammer out an agreement to reduce the budget deficit Commission said. and in the process set in motion a series of automatic cuts beginning in 2012, including elimination of the 2% employee payroll tax cut. Before year-end, however, Congress approved a two-month extension of the tax cut as Stocks Down,Dec. 2011 Bonds Dec. 2010Up 2011 Inflows well as extended unemployment benefits, leaving the testy U.S. Mutual Funds ($ billions) (outflows) negotiations for a longer-term agreement to the new year. Pimco Stock Funds Speaking on Bloomberg Television in November after Hybrid Congress’ inaction, CEO and co-CIO Mohamed 5,207 5,588 (130) Taxable Bond El-Erian placed the chances of another recession at one- 835 796 30 third to half, calling such a prospect “terrifying” in light Municipal Bond 2,390 2,160 137 of the existing high levels of unemployment, moribund Money Market housing market, large fiscal deficit and negligible interest 497 474 (12) Source: Investment Company Institute rates. “These are all conditions coming out of a recession, 2,692 2,804 (124) not going into a recession, so this is a worrisome time,” he said. The Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD) had warned in November that if no acton was taken to “counter pre-programmed fiscal tightening,” the U.S. could “tip” into a recession that As in its missive on the U.S., the OECD opined that “monetary policy can do little to prevent.” “Decisive policies must be urgently put in place to stop the euro area sovereign debt crisis from spreading and to Europe is looking even worse, with 2012 projections also put weakening global activity back on track.” The OECD heading south as the 2011 year wound down. Germany, a projects GDP growth this year of 1.6% among its 34 pillar of relative strength last year (projected GDP growth: member nations and a “mild recession” for the eurozone, assuming among other baseline scenarios that policy- makers avoid sovereign defaults and “excessive fiscal tightening.” But the OECD warned that “further contagion in sovereign debt markets” could “plunge the euro area Slow Gains 2010 2011* 2012* GDP Growth (Decline) into a deep recession with large negative effects for the U.S. global economy.” Euro Area 3.0% 1.7% 2.2% Equity markets naturally mirrored the stresses in the U.K. 1.7 1.6 (0.3) global economy, especially during the back half of 2011 as Japan headlines grew increasingly shrill. By November, virtually 1.8 0.9 0.6 every market in the world was down sharply for the year. China 4.5 (0.9) 1.9 Although the U.S. markets were relatively resilient by India 10.4 9.1 8.4 comparison, showing only single-digit drops, investors Brazil endured a roller coaster ride. For much of the first half 8.7 6.5 6.5 Global of 2011, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up as 7.5 2.9 3.4 investors pinned their hopes on an improving economy 4.1 2.7 2.5 and strong corporate profits.