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John Mccain… Courageous Service, Experienced Leadership, Bold Solutions

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John Mccain… Courageous Service, Experienced Leadership, Bold Solutions INTERNAL MEMO To: Campaign Leadership From: Rick Davis Subject: McCain v. Giuliani Electability Date: 10/26/2007 The Presidency IV debate will be known as the debate where Senator McCain received a standing ovation for his criticism of Senator Clinton’s earmark for a ‘Woodstock Museum’ in New York and the fact that he was a POW at the time of Woodstock. It was probably the best line of the campaign thus far and helped us win the debate. However, the most critical issue raised in the debate was that Fox News highlighted the fact that their polling shows that Senator McCain is the strongest candidate against Senator Clinton in a head-to-head general election matchup. This is in stark contrast to what the Giuliani campaign has been telling voters for months. The Giuliani campaign has based their entire strategy on the premise that he is the best general election candidate in the field at a time when Republicans seem willing to risk ideological purity in an effort to defeat Senator Hillary Clinton. Polling data continues to show that the most important reason that primary voters currently favor Rudy Giuliani in national polls is because they view him as the best candidate in the general election. Fox News, Rasmussen, and the Real Clear Politics average all show Senator McCain as a stronger candidate than Rudy Giuliani in general election matchups. More importantly, state by state polling shows Senator McCain performing far better than Rudy Giuliani in ‘swing states’. Devastatingly, national conservative leaders have threatened to support a pro-life third party candidate if Rudy Giuliani is the Republican nominee. The combination of McCain outperforming Giuliani in national general election polling, state-by-state polling in swing states, and third party threat to Giuliani is a major problem for his campaign; it disproves the most important premise of his candidacy. Furthermore, the national landscape, historical trends, and issue grid have always favored McCain in a general election. We all know that national security issues are paramount in this election cycle and the fact that John McCain is the only candidate who is ready to lead on day one makes him a strong general election candidate. We all know that John McCain is the only candidate who has a record of performing very well in attracting independent voters in swing states such as New Hampshire and Michigan and has the ability to keep the Reagan coalition together. John McCain… Courageous Service, Experienced Leadership, Bold Solutions. As it becomes more and more clear that John McCain is the best general election candidate he will steadily gain support at the expense of Rudy Giuliani and eventually win the nomination by performing well in the early primary states. Please see the attached documents for a detailed analysis and talking points regarding the general election. INTERNAL ANALYSIS Giuliani Campaign Convinced Voters of False Premise The Giuliani campaign successfully convinced Republican Primary voters in the first half of this year that he was the best general election candidate in the GOP field. They utilized many tactics including a strategy memo arguing that he could compete in liberal- leaning states, targeting her in advertising to infer that he was already running a general election campaign, and regularly attacking her by name in debates and public appearances. Their strategy was effective in convincing Republican primary voters that Rudy Giuliani was the strongest nominee for our party: 1. ABC National poll 50% thought Rudy Giuliani was strongest candidate. 2. Marist NH poll says Rudy strongest general election candidate: 40% Giuliani / 11% McCain. 3. CNN NH poll says Rudy strongest general election candidate: 32% Giuliani / 13% McCain. The Giuliani campaign’s success in convincing Republican Primary voters that he was the strongest general election candidate lead to the stabilization in his primary election poll numbers. Premise of Giuliani Candidacy = Rudy Best General Election Nominee Reasons Premise is False • Reason # 1 - Rudy Giuliani’s Nomination Would Sacrifice Reagan Coalition Several national conservative leaders met at the Council for National Policy meeting in Salt Lake City Utah a couple of weeks ago and came to the conclusion that they would support a pro-life third party candidate rather than Rudy Giuliani if he wins the Republican nomination. The New York Times stated, “almost everyone present at the smaller group’s meeting expressed support for a written resolution stating that ‘if the Republican Party nominates a pro-abortion candidate we will consider running a third-party candidate.’” John McCain… Courageous Service, Experienced Leadership, Bold Solutions. This is not just an issue of conservative leaders. There is also grassroots momentum for the same strategy. Several local conservative organizations, loosely called the Conservative Declaration of Independence, have been articulating that position for quite some time – however, this is the first time it has been manifested by national leaders of this stature. This activity has set off a wave of polling and other discussion of who would be the best candidate to defeat Hillary Clinton and whether Rudy could still win without the support of social conservatives. For example, Rasmussen recently released a poll that said 27% of Republicans would vote for a pro-life third party candidate rather than Rudy Giuliani if he was the nominee of our party. This is a recipe for disaster that threatens to break the conservative Reagan coalition that was built in the 1980’s and served our party well for decades. Simply put, Rudy Giuliani puts the Republican coalition of social and economic conservatives at risk and his nomination would have devastating results for our party. • Reason # 2 - John McCain Strongest General Election Candidate in National Polling Now that the McCain campaign is perceived as headed in a positive direction, Senator McCain has retaken Rudy Giuliani as the strongest candidate in national polling against Hillary Clinton in Fox News, Rasmussen, and the Real Clear Politics average. The ‘McCain Comeback’ and ‘McCain Surge’ stories are now being written by a once-skeptical media. Senator McCain is once again the strongest candidate against Hillary Clinton in national general election polling – as he was in 2006 and early 2007. General Election Polls Fox News Oct. 9-10 Rasmussen Oct 10-11 Hillary Clinton 47% Hillary Clinton 44% John McCain 44% John McCain 43% Hillary Clinton 47% Hillary Clinton 48% Rudy Giuliani 43% Rudy Giuliani 41% Hillary Clinton 50% Hillary Clinton 52% Fred Thompson 38% Fred Thompson 37% Hillary Clinton 50% Hillary Clinton 47% Mitt Romney 38% Mitt Romney 41% John McCain… Courageous Service, Experienced Leadership, Bold Solutions. As of October 12th, the RealClearPolitics average of head-to-head polls with both McCain and Giuliani against Clinton demonstrates that McCain was running neck-and-neck with Giuliani in terms of general election support, even during the most challenging months of the campaign over the summer and, in fact, regained the lead. The matrix below compares moving averages of McCain-Clinton and Giuliani-Clinton matchups over the last six months as compiled by RealClearPolitics.com. The numbers are averages of polls taken in a window of time rather than a rolling average of all polls taken for the year and is computed previous to the release of the favorable Fox News poll. General Election polls will fluctuate by a few points in either direction but this matrix shows pretty clearly that Senator McCain performs as well, if not better, than Rudy Giuliani against Senator Clinton. 10- 10-May 10-Jun 10-Jul Aug 10-Sep 12-Oct MCCAIN 44.2 44.5 45 43.8 42.3 41 CLINTON 46.2 43 48.5 46 46 45.7 MCCAIN VS CLINTON -2 1.5 -3.5 -2.2 -3.7 -4.7 GIULIANI 46 47.5 46.2 44.7 44.4 41.8 CLINTON 45 43.3 47.4 45.7 45.4 48 GIULIANI VS CLINTON 1 4.2 -1.2 -1 -1 -6.2 MCCAIN-CLINTON VS GIULIANI-CLINTON -3 -2.7 -2.3 -1.2 -2.7 1.5 Additional Factors: Rudy Giuliani Will Get ‘Swift Boated’ New York Fireman, Police Officers, and relatives of the victims of 9-11 are laying the groundwork to ‘Swift Boat’ Rudy Giuliani in relation to his performance on 9-11. Rudy Giuliani Will NOT Win Blue States Such as California, New York, Connecticut, New Jersey. The Giuliani campaign recently released a memo claiming that they would win several blue states in a General Election. Although both Rudy and McCain would ‘expand the playing field’ to some degree, it isn’t believable to argue that hard blue states would be in play. Giuliani performs somewhat better than John McCain in some of the more liberal states such as New York but certainly not well enough to win these states against Senator Clinton. John McCain… Courageous Service, Experienced Leadership, Bold Solutions. John McCain Performs Better than Rudy Giuliani in Swing States The national polling numbers are very close between Giuliani and McCain in terms of who performs better against Hillary Clinton. John McCain performs better than Rudy Giuliani against Senator Clinton in every swing state surveyed by Rasmussen or Survey USA recently with the exception of Iowa where they are equal. McCain Pollster State and Date Giuliani Clinton McCain Clinton Edge Michigan Rasmussen 10/23 38 47 40 47 2 Survey Washington USA 10/23 43 50 47 46 8 Survey New Mexico USA 10/22 48 47 50 43 6 Survey USA Iowa 10/21 43 48 44 49 0 Survey USA Missouri 10/20 43 50 45 48 4 Survey USA Ohio 10/19 45 47 46 46 2 Survey Kentucky USA 10/17 45 47 49 45 6 Survey Wisconsin USA 10/24 41 48 45 46 6 John McCain Built His National Reputation by Winning Independents It should not be a surprise to anyone that Senator McCain performs well in a general election.
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