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Urbanisation and Natural Disaster: Systematic Review

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Urbanisation and Natural Disaster: Systematic Review URBANISATION AND NATURAL DISASTER – A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW NOVEMBER 2017 The authors of this report are: 1. Shahed Hossain (icddr,b) 2. Kim Spurway (UNSW) 3. Anthony B. Zwi (UNSW) 4. Nafisa Lira Huq (icddr,b) 5. Razib Mamun (icddr,b) 6. Rubana Islam (icddr,b) 7. Iffat Nowrin (icddr,b) 8. Saraban Ether (icddr,b) 9. Jacqui Bonnitcha (Independent consultant) 10. Ngamindra Dahal (SIAS) 11. Alayne M. Adams (icddr,b) Funding This is an independent report commissioned under the DFID Systematic Review Programme for South Asia. This material has been funded by South Asia Research Hub, Research and Evidence Division, Government of UK. The views expressed do not necessarily reflect the UK Government’s official policies. Acknowledgments We would like to express our thanks and acknowledge the support of Professor Sandy Oliver and colleagues (Dr Mukdarut Bangpan; Claire Stansfield; Jeff Brunton) at EPPI-Centre, Department of Social Science, UCL Institute of Education, UK, Hari Dhungana and Kamal Devkota from SIAS, Hemant Ojha, Krishna Shrestha and Nahid Sultana (NS) from UNSW, Professor Shariful Islam (BSSMU, Bangladesh) for advice and feedback. We also thank PricewaterhouseCoopers Private Limited (PwC, India) for managing the DFID Systematic Review Programme for South Asia. Conflicts of interest There were no conflicts of interest in the writing of this report. Contributions The opinions expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of SARH-DFID, the EPPI- Centre or PwC. Responsibility for the views expressed remains solely with the authors. i Citation Hossain S, Spurway K, Zwi A.B., Huq N.L., Mamun R, Islam R, Nowrin I, Ether S, Bonnitcha J, Dahal N and Adams A.M. (2017) What is the impact of urbanisation on risk of, and vulnerability to, natural disasters? What are the effective approaches for reducing exposure of urban population to disaster risks? London: EPPI-Centre, Social Science Research Unit, UCL Institute of Education, University College London. Picture Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/dfid/ © Copyright Authors of the systematic reviews on the EPPI-Centre website (http://eppi.ioe.ac.uk/) hold the copyright for their reviews. The authors give permission for users of the review to display and print the contents of the review for their own non-commercial use, provided that the materials are not modified, copyright and other proprietary notices contained in the materials are retained, and the source of the material is cited clearly, following the citation details provided. Otherwise, users are not permitted to duplicate, reproduce, republish, distribute, or store the review without written permission. ii CONTENTS List of Figures ................................................................................. iv List of abbreviations .......................................................................... v Summary ........................................................................................ 1 1. Background ................................................................................. 9 2. Methods .................................................................................... 19 3. Findings of the review .................................................................. 25 4. Policy and Practice Implications ...................................................... 58 5. Discussion and Recommendation ..................................................... 60 6. Strengths and limitations of the review ............................................. 70 7. Conclusions ............................................................................... 72 8. References ................................................................................ 73 9. APPENDICES ............................................................................... 84 iii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: Comparison of urban and rural population growth ............................ 9 Figure 2: Conceptual Framework ................................................................... 17 Figure 3: Proposed Theory of Change ........................................................... 18 Figure 4: Flow chart of study selection process ............................................. 26 Figure 5: Distribution of included literature on natural disasters sites in South and East Asia ................................................................................................. 27 iv LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ACCRA African Climate Change Resilience Alliance ADB Asian Development Bank ADPC Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre ALNAP Active Learning Network for Accountability and Performance CBDRM Community-Based Disaster Risk Management CBRMA Community-Based Risk Management Arrangements CBDRR Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction CCA Climate Change Adaptation CECI Centre for International Studies and Cooperation CENESTA Centre for Sustainable Development, Iran DFID Department for International Development (UK) DRR Disaster Risk Reduction DRM Disaster Risk Management FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery HFA Hyogo Framework for Action icddr,b International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LMIC Low and Middle Income Countries MFI Microfinance Institution NGO Non-Governmental Organisation SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SIAS South Asia Institute of Advanced Studies v UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change UNSW The University of New South Wales, Australia UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UNISDR United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction vi SUMMARY In recent decades the rate and extent of urbanisation has increased markedly and the majority of the world’s people now live in urban areas. These trends are clearly apparent in low and middle income countries, particularly those in South and East Asia (World Bank recent list of LMIC by region). Much of this urban growth is relatively unplanned and has increased the vulnerability of the urban population to the increasing risk of natural disasters and extreme weather events. In addition, vulnerability is further aggravated by other risk factors such as widespread poverty and illiteracy, population migration, increased population density, poor access to services, inadequate nutrition, and poor water and sanitation. Major gaps exist in information on the interface between urbanisation and natural disasters, especially if the added dimensions of risk, vulnerability and resilience are considered. The concept that the impact of disasters is an outcome of ongoing risk processes interacting with hazards, exposure and vulnerabilities is comparatively recent. It is suggested that there are valuable lessons to be learnt from local level initiatives, people’s participation or adaptation of suitable and applicable legislations in the face of such hazards and disasters happening in these cities, countries and regions. RESEARCH QUESTIONS This review aimed to answer two key questions: i. What is the impact of urbanisation on risk of, and vulnerability to, natural disasters? ii. What are the effective approaches for reducing exposure of urban populations to disaster risks? The review aimed to understand the complex relationship between urbanisation, natural disaster, risk and vulnerability. The project approach was based on the concept that risk arises at the interface of four intersecting domains: urbanisation, natural disasters, vulnerability and risk reduction. This was supplemented by a more detailed proposed framework (Theory of Change) capturing the relationships and influences among these dynamic issues and their impacts on risk, vulnerability and resilience. METHODOLOGY A two stage review was undertaken: 1. Stage 1 mapped the range, extent and diversity of literature on these issues. 2. Stage 2 was based on the emergent findings from Stage 1 and sought to examine in more depth the impact and the interrelation of urbanisation with natural disasters with a particular emphasis on the availability of evidence of effective interventions. The findings were further strengthened by a more in-depth analysis of a subset of studies graded as high to medium quality study identified in the Stage 2 review. The Stage 1 scoping review examined 363 studies after primary screening and focused on urban and peri-urban populations from low and middle income countries, all types of natural disaster, along with evidence of any programmes and interventions implemented by governments, NGOs, international organisations or donor agencies. The Stage 2 review synthesized evidence from 32 studies identified from the Stage 1 scoping review focused on the relationships between variables of interest (risk and vulnerability), including the analysis of outcomes and impact of interventions. This helped in documenting the range of risk mitigation approaches that have been described and contributed to deriving lessons concerning their applicability to different contexts, especially those in South and East Asia. The Stage 2 review focused on all disaster types in South and East Asia LMIC countries. All included studies for Stage 2 review were coded according to pre-defined (identified in the proposed theory of change) and emerging codes. The included qualitative and descriptive studies
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