Capital Flight
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Eurozone breakup report_Layout 1 08/01/2015 12:06 Page 1 It’s all Greek to me: A business guide to coping with the euro-crisis Author: James Sproule Chief Economist, Institute of Directors January 2015 Eurozone breakup report_Layout 1 08/01/2015 12:06 Page 2 Setting the scene • 2014 came to a close with the Greek parliament failing to elect a President, triggering a general election on 25 January. This raises the possibility of a new government seeking to substantially renegotiate the terms of the Economic Adjustment Package, originally negotiated with Troika 1 in May 2010, and revised in March 2012. • The euro-zone crisis of 2011/12 saw the imposition of strict austerity programmes designed to move public finances to a sustainable position. However implementation has proven to be difficult. • The battle is changing. It is now between those who fear financial contagion (and so do not wish to raise the possibility of one or more countries being forced from the euro) and those who are afraid of the political contagion that comes from bowing to the demands of populist politicians seeking to reject fiscal austerity. Key points • The euro was introduced in stages over seven years, and yet the departure of a member of the single currency club may well come over the space of a single weekend. • Given the potential impact and challenges resulting from a country leaving the Euro-zone, we believe organizations should once again begin to plan and prepare their response to such a possibility. • There will be considerable commentary over the coming weeks as to the possibility of a Greek Exit of the euro (Grexit), but considerably less on what businesses might do to prepare for such an event. This paper seeks to address that gap. 1 Indeed departure from the Euro was seen by the ECB and others to necessitate departing the European Union, although during the last crisis German officials were reported to have given informal assurances to the Greeks that they would not enforce their departure from the EU. 2 Eurozone breakup report_Layout 1 08/01/2015 12:06 Page 3 Potential implications include • What’s it really worth and how interconnected are we? An exit of any member of the Euro would result in a strong market reaction and bank balance sheets would once again come under pressure as a wide range of assets were revalued through repeated iterations. • Separating good from bad. Assets would need to be segregated into differing currencies and accounts. • Capital flight. Fear of inflation and further devaluations in at risk countries would drive savings from Southern Europe to accounts in more fiscally responsible countries, denuding local banks of their capital base, curtailing lending and driving affected economies further into recession. • Can you pay? Concerns over counter-party risk between businesses will emerge as domestic banks of the countries affected face funding difficulties. • Recalibrate risk. Risk assessments have proven again to be too narrow and thus inadequate. Firms, for a start, will be demanding increased collateral for certain financial products or trade agreements. • Panic trading. There would be a spike in financial trading activity, at the same time tactical solutions to clearing and settlement in a new currency would have to be implemented. 3 Eurozone breakup report_Layout 1 08/01/2015 12:06 Page 4 On background How plausible is it that a country would leave the single European currency? For much of its first decade of existence, the answer was clear: not at all plausible. The architects of the euro had meant it to be irreversible, to the point where there is a mechanism by which countries can leave the European Union itself, yet not the euro 2. Then the events of 2011/12 occurred and the spectre of a Greek exit (Grexit) of the euro became a very real possibility, with the result that a good deal of thinking was done as to what Grexit would mean in practice as opposed to theory. The irreversibility of the euro was initially thought of as being crucial to financial market credibility. And credibility was achieved, to the immense benefit of euro-zone members. The biggest benefit accrued to those governments where, because of a history of inflation or comparatively small financial markets, borrowing costs had traditionally been high. However the idea that the lower debt-servicing costs would be used responsibly by government to consolidate finances proved misplaced. Instead, lower borrowing costs were used to prolong unsustainable fiscal policies to the point where the system itself has become fundamentally imperilled. Since the crisis of 2011/12 the exposure of European banks to Greece has diminished dramatically, having been helped by a 75% devaluation of bank holdings of Greek debt in Feb 2012. But depending on how far any potential contagion spreads, bank exposure to other EU governments remains considerable. If there is one lesson that has been learnt from the Lehman Brothers crisis, it is that financial markets are far more interconnected than had been thought and no plan, however detailed, is likely to be able to figure out fully the impact of an economic shock. The view of an increasing number of economists is that the longer such a situation goes on without addressing the underlying factors that are causing the strain, the more likely the result is going to be sudden and shocking. Against this are a more recent set of political concerns, where populist far left (and in other countries, far right) parties seem intent on gaining power through promising to renegotiate fiscal consolidation plans. For many, particularly those who are likely to be picking up the bill for any easing of austerity, views on allowing any renegotiation range between highly undesirable and completely unacceptable. The euro was ratified under the Maastricht treaty of 1992, introduced on 1 January 1999 with notes and coins coming three years later. So after an introductory period of more than seven years, a country’s exit of the euro-zone may take place over a weekend. If a country were to leave the euro, a short transition time frame may be necessary as there may be significant capital flight as soon as any plans are 2 Indeed departure from the euro was seen by the ECB and others to necessitate departing the European Union, although during the last crisis German 4 officials were reported to have given informal assurances to the Greeks that they would not enforce their departure from the EU. Eurozone breakup report_Layout 1 08/01/2015 12:06 Page 5 announced, with investors anticipating a significant devaluation. Any departure scenario is, therefore, likely to involve complete denial of any plans to withdraw until the moment of actual departure. The immediate aftermath of a departure from the euro is going to see a rapid easing of austerity policies in the departing country with predictable falling of exchange rates. There are numerous examples of countries departing from an ‘irreversible’ currency peg. Breaking such a pegging arrangement is simply a matter of declaring the link dead and letting the markets determine a new exchange rate. Leaving the euro would be much less straight-forward. There are any number of potential scenarios that might come about in the euro area, from a complete break-up to a country being ejected or “deciding” to leave, which amounts to the same thing. We are going to examine the scenario discussed most frequently: a financially recalcitrant country being asked to leave, or departing as it refuses to meet the requirements enabling it to stay. PlAUSIBlE SCEnArIoS Scenario 1: Scenario 1.5: Scenario 2: A solution is found Just sufficient, but never A country departs the enough euro Economic growth resumes: a Economic growth proves elusive. Economic divergence proves prerequisite for an optimal unbridgeable and country departs scenario from euro. • ECB accommodates and • Risk reassessed with greater rigor • Devaluation inevitable in provides the necessary liquidity / in credit assessments and wider departing country, triggering confidence to satisfy investors’ risk premiums prevail; questions as to which assets are concerns into the medium term governments will face difficulties affected financing open ended deficits; • Debt restructuring the solution higher bank reserve requirements • ECB acts decisively to ensure could well be that government constrain lending contagion does not spread; (semi- sovereign) debt is significant program of restructured/defaults, but • Deflation looms as consumers quantitative easing is country remains in euro in Europe remain nervous and announced even terrified • Deflation avoided; consumer • Banks fail in departing country demand remains subdued • Debt burden caps growth; as they face potentially through period of public and creditor nations dictate terms to insurmountable funding crisis; private debt consolidation, but debtors Exchange controls to limit recovers subsequently capital flight may be attempted • Savings flee out of Southern • Long term structural reforms Europe, curtailing banks’ ability • Trade stumbles as payments are enacted triggering corporate to lend and accounts become difficult investment, promotes for all at risk countries entrepreneurialism, and allows • Business relocates stock market growth to emerge listing/HQ, longer term brain drain • Minor country departure from euro will have marginal impact • Prolonged recession with on multi-national business constant threat of sliding into next scenario 5 Eurozone breakup report_Layout 1 08/01/2015 12:06 Page 6 Immediate impacts • Businesses will need to re-calculate exposures to new Greek drachma risks, as well as credit exposures to local institutions and to other banks with significant exposure to the new Greek drachma. This will need to be supported by new risk calculation frameworks and may also require other trading and credit limits and issues such as living wills to be examined following this credit event.