Photo: Bruno Marty / IRD
Chapter 3
Observed and expected changes to the tropical Pacific Ocean
Alexandre S Ganachaud, Alex Sen Gupta, James C Orr, Susan E Wijffels, Ken R Ridgway, Mark A Hemer, Christophe Maes, Craig R Steinberg, Aline D Tribollet, Bo Qiu and Jens C Kruger
‘The oceans are warming.’ (Bindoff et al. 2007)i
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island effects 167 3.4 Summary of present-day ocean features, and observed and projected changes 169 3.5 Recommendations to reduce uncertainties in projecting future changes to the tropical Pacific Ocean 172 3.5.1 SPCZ and ENSO 172 3.5.2 Integrating biogeochemical and physical models 173 3.5.3 Dynamical downscaling 173 3.5.4 Long-term observations and monitoring 173 References 176 Appendix 188 102 CHAPTER 3 3.1 Introduction 7KHÀVKDQGLQYHUWHEUDWHVKDUYHVWHGIURPWKHWURSLFDO3DFLÀF2FHDQDQGWKHFRDVWDO ZDWHUVRIWKHUHJLRQDQGWKHHFRV\VWHPVWKDWVXSSRUWWKHVHVSHFLHVDUHLQÁXHQFHG QRWRQO\E\VXUIDFHFOLPDWH WKH\DOVRGHSHQGLQWLPDWHO\RQWKHRFHDQLFHQYLURQPHQW /DUJHDQGVPDOOVFDOHFLUFXODWLRQSDWWHUQVLQÁXHQFHODUYDOGLVSHUVDODQGWKH PLJUDWLRQ RI VSHFLHV ZDWHU WHPSHUDWXUH VDOLQLW\ QXWULHQW DYDLODELOLW\ GLVVROYHG R[\JHQFRQFHQWUDWLRQDQGS+DIIHFWELRORJLFDODFWLYLW\ DQGRFHDQLFFXUUHQWVZDYHV DQGVHDOHYHOVKDSHFRDVWDOKDELWDWV7RJHWKHUWKHVHSURSHUWLHVRIWKHWURSLFDO3DFLÀF 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0XOWLPRGHOPHDQVRIUHFHQWDQGSURMHFWHGDYHUDJHVXUIDFHFXUUHQW VSHHG FPSHUVHFRQG GRZQWRDGHSWKRIPIRU D WKH%VFHQDULRLQ E $LQ F %LQ DQG G $LQ%ODFNDUURZVUHSUHVHQWDYHUDJHG ² FXUUHQWV EOXH DUURZVDUHWKHSURMHFWLRQV7KHVL]HRIWKHDUURZVUHÁHFWVYHORFLW\6KDGHGDUHDVLQGLFDWH ZKHUHHLWKHUFXUUHQWVSHHGRUWKHFKDQJHLQGLUHFWLRQLVEHORZWKH FRQÀGHQFHOHYHO ZKLWHDUHDVUHSUHVHQWUHJLRQVZKHUHRQHRUVHYHUDOPRGHOVKDYHQRGDWD :LWKLQRIWKHHTXDWRUWKHZHVWZDUGÁRZLQJ6(&DOVRGHFUHDVHVLQVWUHQJWKZLWK JOREDOZDUPLQJ,WVLQLWLDOÁRZZKLFKDYHUDJHVEHWZHHQDQGFPSHUVHFRQGLQ WKHXSSHUPLVSURMHFWHGWRGHFUHDVHE\RQO\WRFPSHUVHFRQGLQXQGHU ERWKVFHQDULRVDQGWKHQE\DERXWFPSHUVHFRQGXQGHU%DQGFPSHUVHFRQG XQGHU$LQ7KHFRUUHVSRQGLQJSURMHFWHGUHGXFWLRQVLQ6(&WUDQVSRUW YROXPH RIZDWHUPRYHG FRPSDUHGZLWKLWVDYHUDJHSUHVHQWYDOXHEHWZHHQ(WR: 142 CHAPTER 3 (~ 28 Sv, Figure 3.27) (1 Sv = 1 Sverdrup = 106 m3 per second) are -0.5 to -1 Sv (3–5%) in 2035, -2 Sv (9%) under B1 in 2100 and -4.5 Sv (18%) under A2 in 2100. A vertical section along the equator shows that just below the SEC the eastward EUC is projected to move progressively upwards by about 10 m under B1 and A2 in 2035 and B1 in 2100, and then by 20 m under A2 in 2100 (Figure 3.27). The eastward EUC is also expected to increase in strength and transport over the 21st century (Figure 3.27), reducing the depth to which the SEC penetrates. &KDQJHVLQFXUUHQWVWUHQJWKVDUHOLNHO\WRDIIHFWELRORJLFDOSURGXFWLRQDQGÀVKHULHV through the various processes that supply nutrients discussed below. They will also affect the dispersal of larvae and connectivity among populations123. Changes to the EUC may have consequences because of the important role of this undercurrent in the transport of iron, sourced from the New Guinea Coastal Undercurrent, to the HDVWHUQDQGFHQWUDO3DFLÀF124, where iron concentrations limit primary productivity (Chapter 4). Therefore, changes to the depth and strength of the EUC may also have LPSRUWDQWHIIHFWVRQÀVKHULHVLQWKHUHJLRQ 3.3.2 Ocean temperature 3.3.2.1 Observed changes As a result of its large heat capacity, the ocean has absorbed most of the additional heat due to recent global warming – about 30 times more anthropogenic heat has entered the ocean than the atmosphere since the 1960s125. Globally, SST is estimated to have warmed ~ 0.67°C from 1901 to 2005126,QWKH3DFLÀFEDVLQZDUPLQJRI667RI 1 to 1.5°C has occurred at the western coastal boundary south of the equator and in the east, north of the equator, during the past 50 years127,128. 6HSDUDWLQJORQJWHUPZDUPLQJRI667IURPWKHQDWXUDOYDULDELOLW\RIWKHWURSLFDO3DFLÀF Ocean has not been straightforward. For example, ENSO has accounted for ~ 30% of the variability (excluding the seasonal cycle) during the past 100 years, with ~ 10% attributable to global warming127,129, and the remaining ~ 60% being due to decadal and other modes of variability. But the warming trend is conspicuous, even below the surface – it has been detected in all oceans and at increasing depths since the 1950s125,130–132. Over the past 50 years, the water column between the surface and about 200 m in WKHWURSLFDODQGVXEWURSLFDO3DFLÀFKDVZDUPHGE\XSWR& )LJXUH &RXQWHU intuitively, south of 8°N, a consistent and broad-scale cooling has occurred in the central and lower thermocline that extends south to at least 25°S (Figure 3.28), which is most pronounced at around 200 m in the equatorial region. This cooling appears to be related to changes in the surface winds that can raise the thermocline. Despite the addition of heat to the system, the upward displacement of the strongest vertical temperature gradient associated with the thermocline leads to net cooling133. 143 CHAPTER 3 a6Y)LJXUH 6Y 6YHUGUXS PSHUVHFRQG DUHWR6Y ² LQ 6Y XQGHU%LQDQG6Y XQGHU$LQ$YHUWLFDOVHFWLRQ DORQJWKHHTXDWRUVKRZVWKDWMXVWEHORZWKH6(&WKHHDVWZDUG(8&LVSURMHFWHGWR PRYHSURJUHVVLYHO\XSZDUGVE\DERXWPXQGHU%DQG$LQDQG%LQ DQGWKHQE\PXQGHU$LQ )LJXUH 7KHHDVWZDUG(8&LVDOVRH[SHFWHG WRLQFUHDVHLQVWUHQJWKDQGWUDQVSRUWRYHUWKHVWFHQWXU\ )LJXUH UHGXFLQJWKH GHSWKWRZKLFKWKH6(&SHQHWUDWHV &KDQJHVLQFXUUHQWVWUHQJWKVDUHOLNHO\WRDIIHFWELRORJLFDOSURGXFWLRQDQGÀVKHULHV WKURXJKWKHYDULRXVSURFHVVHVWKDWVXSSO\QXWULHQWVGLVFXVVHGEHORZ7KH\ZLOODOVR DIIHFWWKHGLVSHUVDORIODUYDHDQGFRQQHFWLYLW\DPRQJSRSXODWLRQV&KDQJHVWRWKH (8&PD\KDYHFRQVHTXHQFHVEHFDXVHRIWKHLPSRUWDQWUROHRIWKLVXQGHUFXUUHQWLQ WKHWUDQVSRUWRILURQVRXUFHGIURPWKH1HZ*XLQHD&RDVWDO8QGHUFXUUHQW WR WKH HDVWHUQDQGFHQWUDO3DFLÀFZKHUHLURQFRQFHQWUDWLRQVOLPLWSULPDU\SURGXFWLYLW\ &KDSWHU 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RIWKHWURSLFDO3DFLÀF2FHDQ2EVHUYHGFKDQJHVDUHUHODWLYHWRWKH SHULRG ² 3URMHFWHGFKDQJHVDUHUHODWLYHWR ² (VWLPDWHVRIFRQÀGHQFHDUHSURYLGHGIRUHDFK SURMHFWLRQ VHHNH\EHORZ 'HWDLOVRIFXUUHQWVDUHSURYLGHGLQ)LJXUH VHH7DEOHIRU PRUHGHWDLOHGREVHUYHGDQGSURMHFWHGFKDQJHVIRUVHOHFWHGNH\RFHDQIHDWXUHV Ocean Observed 2035 2100 feature changes B1 A2 B1 A2 South Pacific gyre SEC decreases at the equator; EUC becomes shallower; SECC Currents has strengthened decreases and retracts westward in the upper 50 m Sea surface Projected to increase significantly over the entire region temperature +0.6 to +0.8°C +0.7 to +0.8°C +1.2 to +1.6°C +2.2 to +2.7°C Ocean +0.6 to 1°C temperature +0.4 to +0.6°C +1.0 to +1.3°C +1.6 to +2.8°C since 1950 at 80 m Extends eastward; water warms and becomes fresher, and area of warmest waters Warm Pool Warmer and fresher increases Equatorial Decreased Integral transport 9°S–9°N remains unchanged upwelling Eddy No measurable Probable variations in regions where major oceanic currents change activity changes Nutrient Decreased slightly Decrease due to increased stratification and shallower mixed layer, with a possible supply in two locations decrease of up to 20% under A2 by 2100 Dissolved Expansion of low- Possible decrease due to lower oxygen intake at high latitudes oxygen oxygen waters Possible increase near the equator due to decreased remineralisation Aragonite saturation (Ω) projected to continue to decrease significantly ¾ Ω decreased from 4.3 to 3.9 n/a Ω ~ 3.3 Ω ~ 3.0 Ω ~ 2.4 Ocean ¾ Ω horizon rises acidification from 600 to n/a ~ 456 m n/a ~ 262 m 560 m ¾ pH decreased n/a n/a ~ 7.81 from 8.14 to 8.08 ~ 7.98 Decreased in far Slight increase (up to 10 cm) in swell wave height; patterns Waves west Pacific; no depend on ENSO and tropical cyclones data elsewhere Projected to rise significantly +6 cm Sea level * +8 cm +18 to +38 cm +23 to +51 cm since 1960 ** +20 to +30 cm +70 to +110 cm +90 to +140 cm Island Not observed Probable; undocumented effects 3URMHFWLRQV 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