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Dr. A. Neil Hutton Climate Change Sun By Dr. A. Neil Hutton Sunspot Relative size of the Earth You are here www.cspg.org Climate Change Contents 1) Global Warming Debate..........................................................................................................................3 2) The World’s Historic Climate.................................................................................................................5 3) Carbon Dioxide ..................................................................................................................................... 11 4) The Greenhouse Effect ......................................................................................................................... 17 5) Here Comes the Sun ............................................................................................................................. 21 6) Fearmongering........................................................................................................................................ 29 7) The Spin Cycle ........................................................................................................................................ 35 8) Global Circulation Models .................................................................................................................. 39 9) Economics ............................................................................................................................................... 45 10) Afterword ............................................................................................................................................. 51 Climate Change was originally published as a ten-part series in the Canadian Society of Petroleum Geologists’ monthly magazine, The Reservoir, between January and November 2009. The CSPG thanks Dr. Neil Hutton for his work in making this series possible. cover designed from images of the NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center Scientific Visualization Studio The RESERVOIR is published 11 times per year by the Canadian Society No official endorsement or sponsorship by the CSPG is implied for any perform as expected or that they will give the desired results. Some of Petroleum Geologists. This includes a combined issue for the months advertisement, insert, or article that appears in the Reservoir unless information contained herein may be inaccurate or may vary from standard of July and August. The purpose of the RESERVOIR is to publicize the otherwise noted. All submitted materials are reviewed by the editor. We measurements. Society's many activities and to promote the geosciences. We look for both reserve the right to edit all submissions, including letters to the Editor. technical and non-technical material to publish. Additional information Submissions must include your name, address, and membership number The CSPG expressly disclaims any and all liability for the acts, omissions on the RESERVOIR's submission guidelines can be found at http:// (if applicable). The material contained in this publication is intended for or conduct of any third-party user of information contained in this www.cspg.org/publications/pubs-reservoir-submissions.cfm. informational use only. publication. Under no circumstances shall the CSPG and its officers, directors, employees, and agents be liable for any injury, loss, damage or The contents of this publication may not be reproduced either in part or While reasonable care has been taken, authors and the CSPG make no expense arising in any manner whatsoever from the acts, omissions or in full without the consent of the publisher. guarantees that any of the equations, schematics, or devices discussed will conduct of any third-party user. CLIMATE CHANGE I: Global Warming Debate by Dr. A. Neil Hutton A while ago, it came to my attention that however warming, in itself, does not prove proxy values with depth. The burial pressure APEGGA was undertaking a survey of the hypothesis of global warming as a result range of the ice cores is from 5 bars to 15 Members’ views on the subject of Climate of the release of carbon dioxide in the bars or 5-15 atmospheres, a maximum of Change. In reviewing responses to other atmosphere. Nevertheless, the manmade, or about 220 psi. It appears that decompression surveys, such as those generated by AAPG, it “Anthropogenic, Global Warming, results in CO2 depletion. Nevertheless, this was evident that the responders ranged over Hypothesis” has been widely accepted by the rather invariant proxy data was an entire spectrum of opinion. Many appeared media and the public. Global warming studies inappropriately linked to observational data not to be fully conversant with the range of have become big business. Indeed, it has from the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. current, related research or were relying attained near religious status among the The result is a flat historic graph melded only on the uncritical reporting by the media. green lobby, resulting in unwarranted with the modern data scaled to provide a On the whole, the media have done a personal attacks on some scientists’ dramatic right angle and near vertical climb remarkably poor job in reporting on global credibility and integrity and attempts to place in modern CO2 values. warming. Typically, the reports have been a them in the same category as holocaust simple regurgitation of the spin produced by deniers. The objectivity and impartiality of The curve is visually dramatic but conceals the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate peer review has been compromised while an unacknowledged change of age. The Change (IPCC). research funding becomes more difficult to youngest proxy from the Siple Ice Core is obtain for those expressing critical views. 1890 with a value of 328 ppmv but the entire The use of the term “spin” may seem an data set was arbitrarily moved to fit Mauna unusual way in which to characterize At this point I will quote a comment by Loa data for 1973. This appears to have been objective scientific reports. However the meteorologist Piers Corbyn in the Weather done to conceal an inconveniently high pre- IPCC Summary for Policymakers (SPM), Action Bulletin, December, 2000: “The industrial value for CO2 of 328 ppmv. where the media generally obtain their problem we are faced with is that the information, does not always reflect the meteorological establishment and the global 2 Human activities have warmed the opinions in the scientific report and in some warming lobby research bodies which climate since 1750. instances actually contradicts the conclusions receive large funding are now apparently so of the scientists. For example, the IPCC corrupted by the largesse they receive that This is an unwarranted assertion which is Summary for Policy makers, (IPCC 2001b, p. the scientists in them have sold their not supported by facts. 10) states that “there is new and stronger integrity.” It is worth mentioning here that evidence that most of the warming observed even under President George Bush, the 3. The warmth of the last half-century is in the last 50 years is attributable to human United States has spent $29 billion on climate unusual. It is the highest in at least the activities”. Although in the scientific report research in the last six years. This is more past 1,300 years, and is “very likely” itself, (IPCC 2001a, Chapter 1, p. 97) the than double what was spent on the Apollo caused by increases in anthropogenic conclusion is quite different: “The fact that Space Program. greenhouse gases. the global mean temperature has increased since the late 19th Century and that other The SPM of the IPCC Fourth Assessment This assertion is based on the infamous Mann trends have been observed does not Report made four basic points, none of which hockey stick graph, which has been shown necessarily mean that an anthropogenic effect can be supported scientifically. In order to to be totally invalid in a number of scientific on the climate system has been identified. support their arguments, there has been a papers and by the Wegman Commission of Climate has always varied on all time scales, pattern of data manipulation in a highly the United States Congress. Not withstanding so the observed change may be natural.” unscientific attempt to confirm the the scathing criticism of this work by many anthropogenic (man-made) warming theory. authors, it continues in widespread use by In an extraordinary move last spring the IPCC the IPCC with minor modification in the 2007 released the 21-page SPM for the Fourth The four cornerstones of the of the IPCC report. The IPCC has been shown to have Assessment Report (2007) more than three global warming hypothesis are: violated its own rules in its 2007 attempt to months ahead of the 1,600-page scientific rebut criticisms of the “hockey stick”. All report. This was to ensure that the scientific 1. Carbon Dioxide, the most important this to evade acknowledging worldwide report was consistent with the SPM. In other anthropogenic greenhouse gas, evidence of the Little Ice Age, the Medieval words the science was not to conflict with increased markedly as a result of human Warm Period, and the Roman Warm Period. the politics! activities, and its atmospheric Both of the latter periods of warming had concentration of 379 ppmv (parts per temperatures greater than our present The general public and the media, apparently, million by volume) in 2005 far exceeded warming. This was brilliantly documented by are quite unaware of these contradictions the natural range of 180
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