Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway Part B ***This is based on research prior to the changed release due to the COVID-19 outbreak***
Title Rating Release DBO IBO WWBO DBO IBO (M) (M) (M) (%) (%)
Peter Rabbit 2: PG-13 2020 The Runaway
Peter Rabbit PG-13 2018 115.3 236.0 351.3 32.8 67.21
The Secret Life of PG 2016 368.4 507.1 875.5 42.1 57.92 Pets
The Secret Life of PG 2019 158.9 271.2 430.1 36.9 63.13 Pets 2
Trolls PG 2016 153.7 193.2 346.2 44.3 55.74
The Angry Birds PG 2019 41.7 113.0 154.7 26.9 73.15 Movie 2
Zootopia PG 2016 341.3 682.5 1023.8 33.3 66.76
The Emoji Movie PG 2017 86.1 131.7 217.8 39.5 60.57
Average 180.7 305.0 485.6 36.5 63.5
Median 153.7 236.0 351.3 36.9 63.1
Looking at your target audience, how large is the potential audience for the film? What other films targeted this same audience and how did they do?
1 “Peter Rabbit.” Box Office Mojo, www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt5117670/?ref_=bo_se_r_1. 2 “The Secret Life of Pets.” Box Office Mojo, https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt2709768/?ref_=bo_se_r_1. 3 “The Secret Life of Pets 2.” Box Office Mojo, https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt5113040/?ref_=bo_se_r_2. 4 “Trolls.” Box Office Mojo, https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt1679335/?ref_=bo_se_r_1. 5 “The Angry Birds Movie 2.” Box Office Mojo, https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt6095472/?ref_=bo_se_r_1. 6 “Zootopia.” Box Office Mojo, https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt2948356/?ref_=bo_se_r_1. 7 “The Emoji Movie.” Box Office Mojo, https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt4877122/?ref_=bo_se_r_1. The target audience for Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway is wide-ranging. It encompasses younger viewers from age 2 to 39 of both genders. That represents more than half the moviegoer population. As a children’s series adaptation, it caters to both the very young audience looking for animated adventure, perhaps, accompanied with their parents, and the nostalgic adult. The majority caucasian cast will most likely draw a caucasian-dominated audience. Peter Rabbit, the film’s predecessor, ranked 29 for the top 2018 movies at the box office, ranked 92 for an animated live-action movie and 103 for kids fiction movie.8 So, Peter Rabbit fared well for its run in 2018 and ranked well among its genre landscapes. Amongst comparable films, Columbia Pictures/Sony Pictures Animation tends to result in below-average domestic box office outcomes. The Emoji Movie made 94.6 million less than average and The Angry Birds Movie 2 made 139 million less than average of comparable films (above). The positive side is that Peter Rabbit did fare better than the kids’ animated movies from its studio. Since Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway is a sequel, The Secret Life of Pets and its sequel, animated films also starring animal characters can help analyze the future outcome of Peter Rabbit 2. The Secret Life of Pets’ sequel made a significant 57% less than its predecessor, with a 3 year gap between the movies. Trolls compared fairly closely to Peter Rabbit’s domestic box office. Both Trolls and Peter Rabbit, have well-known voice actors like Justin Timberlake and James Corden, respectively. An outlier, yet still comparable to the mischievous rabbit stories, is Disney’s Zootopia. Although not reaching The Secret Life of Pets’ high domestic box office of 368.4 million, it comes pretty close.
How does your target compare to the movie-going population generally? (see moviegoing demographic charts on Classes in Resources) Moviegoing frequency and incidence are both high amongst the younger population. 95% of 12-17 year olds make up moviegoing incidences and they have a 9.4 moviegoing frequency. 86% of parents with children 6 to 11 were heavy moviegoers in 2018. In that year, casual moviegoers were the largest subgroup of moviegoers, making up 40% of the United States.9 The target audience for Peter Rabbit is indeed the younger audience and parents bringing their children to enjoy an adventurous animated movie. Peter Rabbit is also geared towards the casual moviegoer, rather than first-weekend avid moviegoers. Thus, the odds seem to be in favor when looking at the general moviegoing population.
Is your genre consistent with your target audience? Is your cast? The genres of adventure, comedy, and family definitely fit into the young target demographic, accompanied by parents. The movie trailers and advertisements have displayed the fun and mischievous nature of the beloved Peter Rabbit, something parents are not reluctant to bring their kids to see and the younger audience enjoys. James Corden, playing Peter Rabbit, has voiced characters in many animated movies including Trolls and Ralph Breaks the Internet. His
8 “Peter Rabbit (2018) - Financial Information.” The Numbers, 8 Feb. 2018, www.the-numbers.com/movie/Peter-Rabbit-(2018)#tab=box-office. 9 Moviegoer Benchmark Slides brand has leaned towards the younger audience, only skewing older for his talk show, The Late Late Show with James Corden. Other than Corden, the rest of the cast are not necessarily consistent with the younger target audience. For instance, Rose Byrne and Domhnall Gleeson have both been in R rated movies. Daisy Ridley, known for her role as Rey in recent Star Wars10 movies, is the next, after Corden, most consistent with the younger audience. However, the cast has garnered positive and children-friendly promotion.
Look at how your talent has historically performed in the past in your genre? See if you can get a sense of their fan base (what is their digital footprint?) Have they historically supported their films? Will their fan base support them in this vehicle?
James Corden has often been successful in kids’ animated movies including Trolls and Wreck it Ralph. He has also been in less successful animated films like The Emoji Movie. He is mainly known for hosting The Late Late Show with James Corden, which he has used to promote his past films with his costars.11 In fact, for the first Peter Rabbit, he bought in Margot Robbie and Domnhall Gleeson, who without Corden does not have a big connection to animation. Robbie and Gleeson, as they do with their other adult films, have promoted the first Peter Rabbit quite extensively. Although children may not be aware of the frequent R-rated movie stars, when associated with Corden (and more so his voice), they may become familiar. Although Robbie's and Gleeson’s regular audience most likely will not watch Peter Rabbit since the target skews younger.
Look at public data on how this weekend has typically performed at the box office and how similar films have performed?
In general the Easter opening weekend gross has declined amongst the top movies year by year. For example, the highest grossing Easter weekend film in 2017 had a gross of 28.6 million, while the following, the highest gross was 18.9 million.12 Animated kids adventures do not necessarily appear in the top grossing movies during this holiday weekend. The closest comparable movie would be Penguins, the Disney coming-of-age movie following the penguin, Steve, looking for a family. This movie made 7.7 million in 2019. This Disneynature movie may not be the best comparison to Sony’s Peter Rabbit: The Runaway, as these Disney documentaries usually perform worse with an average of 19 million.13 The closest genre comparable movie would be
10 Schaffstall, Katherine. “Sia/Mrs. Tiggy-Winkle - 'Peter Rabbit': Meet the Voices Behind the Animated Characters.” The Hollywood Reporter, 9 Feb. 2018, www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/peter-rabbit-cast-meet-famous-voice-actors-1046661/item/sia-mrs-tiggy-winkle-peter-rabbit- meet-voices-behind-animated-character-1063505. 11 The Late Late Show with James Corden, Domhnall Gleeson Drew the 'Peter Rabbit' Short, Sunny Straw, "Online Video CClip", YouTube, 5 Feb 2018, 23 Nov 2015. 12 Holiday Opening Weekends, Box Office Mojo, https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_opening_holiday_weekends/?by_occasion=easter_weekend 13 "Disneynature Movies at the Box Office - Box Office Mojo". Box Office Mojo.com. IMDb.com, Inc. Retrieved January 6, 2017. the adaptation of the elementary school novel, Holes, which had a domestic gross of 67.4 million back in 2003.14 In 2019, Easter weekend did worse than MLK, Memorial and President’s Day weekends. The only holiday weekend it superseded is Labor Day weekend.
What sort of multiple are you expecting after your opening? Is this a quick burn movie or one with longer legs.
The first Peter Rabbit saw a 30% decrease after its first weekend. The following 4 weeks saw similar decreases,15 as the number of theatres playing the movie gradually decreased as expected. However, its weekend rating remains high for the first three weekends. For Peter Rabbit’s first weekend, it ranked second against the weekend movies, only dropping a ranking at the third week. Looking at the 2019 Easter Weekend movie, Breakthrough, there is a larger 40% change between the release weekend and the second weekend.16 The holiday weekend would have caused a spike in the box office, with a dramatic decrease once the holiday is over. Breakthrough had a 11-week run, while the first Peter Rabbit had a 14-week run. Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway would probably have shorter legs than its predecessor due to the Easter Weekend spike, but a longer run than non-serial movies like Breakthrough. However, based on the difference between the 25 week run of The Secret Life of Pets and 15 week run of its sequel, the Peter Rabbit sequel would have significantly shorter legs than its predecessor. Most likely, Peter Rabbit 2: The Runaway would have a 9 to 14 week run.
Determine how meaningful your cast or property is, or how they are responding to the advertising materials in the market.
As of 2008, 151 million copies of The Tale of Peter Rabbit were sold in 35 languages.17 The intellectual property of Peter Rabbit has a long wide-reaching influence. As discussed above, the cast of the most recent film adaptations are highly regarded generally in movies and have been able to garner positive publicity.
Domestic Box Office Prediction: 67 million
14 Holiday Opening Weekends, Box Office Mojo, https://www.boxofficemojo.com/chart/top_opening_holiday_weekends/?by_occasion=easter_weekend 15 “Peter Rabbit (2018) - Financial Information.” The Numbers, 8 Feb. 2018, www.the-numbers.com/movie/Peter-Rabbit-(2018)#tab=box-office. 16 “Breakthrough (2019) - Financial Information.” The Numbers, 12 Apr. 2019, www.the-numbers.com/movie/Breakthrough-(2019)#tab=box- office. 17 Lowne, Cathy. “The Tale of Peter Rabbit.” Encyclopædia Britannica, Encyclopædia Britannica, Inc., 26 Nov. 2018, www.britannica.com/topic/The-Tale-of-Peter-Rabbit.