Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Columbia Pike Transit Initiative: Comparative Return on Investment Study Prepared for: Arlington County, Virginia March 26, 2014 Prepared by: HR&A Advisors, Inc. 2101 L Street NW, Suite 800 Washington, DC 20037-1526 General and Limiting Conditions 1. HR&A Advisors, Inc. (HR&A) has been engaged and compensated by Arlington County, Virginia to prepare this Study. In preparing this Study, HR&A has used its independent professional judgment and skills in good faith, subject to the limitations, disclosures and disclaimers herein. 2. Any person who relies on or otherwise uses this Study is required to have first read, understood and accepted the following disclosures, limitations and disclaimers, and will, by reason of such reliance or other use, be deemed to have read, understood and accepted the same. 3. This Study is based on estimates, assumptions and other information developed by HR&A, other third party consultants, and Arlington County officials. Every reasonable effort has been made to ensure that the data contained in this Study are accurate as of the date of this Study; however, factors exist that are outside the control of HR&A and that may affect the estimates and/or projections noted herein. 4. HR&A reviewed the information and projections provided by third parties using its independent professional judgment and skills in good faith, but assumes no liability resulting from errors, omissions or any other inaccuracies with respect to the information provided by such third parties referenced in this Study. 5. HR&A also relied on data provided by or obtained from Arlington County, Fairfax County, AECOM, CoStar Group, ESRI Business Analyst, and the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics in the preparation of this report. HR&A assumes no liability resulting from errors, omissions or any other inaccuracies with respect to the information provided by these parties. 6. In addition to relying on data, information, projections and forecasts of others as referred to above, HR&A has included in this Study estimates, assumptions, and projections of future events made by HR&A that HR&A believes are appropriate, but HR&A makes no representation that there will be no variances between actual outcomes and such estimates and assumptions. 7. No opinion is intended to be expressed and no responsibility is assumed for any matters that are legal in nature or require legal expertise or specialized knowledge beyond that of a real estate and economic development consultant. 8. This Study is qualified in its entirety by, and should be considered in light of these General and Limiting Conditions. By use of this Study each party that uses this Study agrees to be bound by all of the General and Limiting Conditions stated herein. HR&A Advisors, Inc. Comparative Return on Investment Study | 2 Table of Contents General and Limiting Conditions ..................................................................................................................................... 2 Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................................................... 3 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................................................................. 4 I. Summary of Transit Services ...................................................................................................................................... 10 II. Existing Transit Corridor Conditions ......................................................................................................................... 14 III. Real Estate and Economic Development Impacts of Transit ............................................................................... 29 IV. Developer and Retailer Interview Findings .......................................................................................................... 42 V. Economic Impacts of Columbia Pike Transit Initiative .......................................................................................... 48 VI. Local Fiscal Benefits ................................................................................................................................................... 59 VII. Appendix.................................................................................................................................................................... 61 HR&A Advisors, Inc. Comparative Return on Investment Study | 3 Executive Summary Introduction The Columbia Pike transit corridor, located in Arlington and Fairfax Counties in the Commonwealth of Virginia, is an important regional transportation link that spans a series of urban contexts. The Columbia Pike corridor lies outside of Arlington County’s two Metrorail corridors, and, as a focal point for the County’s multi-year Columbia Pike Initiative and Columbia Pike Neighborhoods Area Plan, is expected to accommodate a larger share of future regional growth in the coming decades, putting increasing pressure on an existing bus system that is already at-capacity. In response to the need for a transportation solution that expands transit capacity and encourages mode shifting from single-occupancy vehicles, Arlington and Fairfax Counties undertook a comprehensive analysis of transit alternatives, including a no build scenario, two levels of enhanced bus service, and a streetcar. Because an existing agreement between Arlington County and the Virginia Department of Transportation stipulates that travel lanes cannot be removed from Columbia Pike,1 a transit service requiring a dedicated lane such as light rail transit or bus rapid transit (BRT) is not feasible in the transit corridor.2 The County Boards of Arlington County and Fairfax County have both adopted the streetcar build alternative as the preferred transit alternative along the Columbia Pike transit corridor, enabling a high- capacity service for the growing and increasingly congested corridor. In response to constituent questions on the benefits of a streetcar service versus an enhanced bus service, Arlington County, Virginia (“The County”) retained HR&A Advisors, Inc. (HR&A) to prepare an updated and comparative return on investment analysis of the streetcar alternative versus an enhanced bus alternative. This study specifically compares the value of streetcar service versus an enhanced bus service across several dimensions, including economic and fiscal benefits generated, the ability to support the County’s development and place-making goals, and anticipated timing of these impacts. A key consideration is that the Columbia Pike Transit Initiative is intended not simply as a mobility solution, but an opportunity for integrated land use and transportation planning that enhances the quality of place of the corridor. Arlington County’s Columbia Pike Neighborhoods Area Plan (2012) and Columbia Pike Initiative (2005), envision a compelling, accessible medium-density residential and retail corridor that provides market rate and affordable housing opportunities and a diversity of options for entertainment, eating, and shopping. The County’s Pentagon City General Land Use Plan envisions a dynamic, high-density, 24-hour neighborhood with a mix of residential uses that complement its core retail and office functions. The Fairfax County Comprehensive Plan, as amended in 2013, envisions a restored urban center, connected to the Washington Metro via mass transit. The development Fairfax County seeks to promote will complement the existing Skyline Complex and retailers. 1 Source: County Board of Arlington County, Virginia; Commonwealth of Virginia, Department of Transportation, "Memorandum of Agreement, Transfer of Columbia Pike (Route 244) and Certain Other Streets Ancillary to Columbia Pike From the Primary System of State Highways to the Local Road System of Arlington County," 2010. 2 The Institute for Transportation Development and Policy (ITDP) has produced a commonly-used scoring system, “the BRT Standard,” that defines the criteria for a bus system qualifying as “BRT.” According to ITDP, one of the threshold requirements for BRT is a dedicated right-of-way, something that is not possible on the Columbia Pike Corridor. In the United States, no transit corridors have earned a “gold” ranking on the BRT Standard and only the Health Line in Cleveland has earned “silver.” The vast majority of rapid bus lines in the US, including what would be possible on Columbia Pike under the TSM 2 alternative, are considered “below basic.” HR&A Advisors, Inc. Comparative Return on Investment Study | 4 Transit investment is an important factor in facilitating the desired future of each submarket because it creates new connections and enhances existing connections, is new infrastructure that is attractive to development, and can be paired with place-making efforts and amenities to draw residents and businesses. In order to attract growth in the form of high-quality, walkable places, Arlington and Fairfax County recognize that they must make infrastructure improvements that make the corridor more competitive in capturing demand in the Washington DC metro area, especially in response to high-quality transit investments elsewhere in the region such as the Silver Line, H-Street Streetcar, and Purple Line. To produce this study, HR&A analyzed current real estate conditions along the transit corridor, conducted a detailed review and data analysis of the real estate and economic impacts of