An Interview with Kenneth J. Arrow Author(S): J
Total Page:16
File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb
Load more
Recommended publications
-
An Analog of the Minimax Theorem for Vector Payoffs
Pacific Journal of Mathematics AN ANALOG OF THE MINIMAX THEOREM FOR VECTOR PAYOFFS DAVID BLACKWELL Vol. 6, No. 1 November 1956 AN ANALOG OF THE MINIMAX THEOREM FOR VECTOR PAYOFFS DAVID BLACKWELL 1. Introduction* The von Neumann minimax theorem [2] for finite games asserts that for every rxs matrix M=\\m(i, j)\\ with real elements there exist a number v and vectors P=(Pi, •••, Pr)f Q={QU •••> Qs)f Pi, Qj>β, such that i> 3) for all i, j. Thus in the (two-person, zero-sum) game with matrix Λf, player I has a strategy insuring an expected gain of at least v, and player II has a strategy insuring an expected loss of at most v. An alternative statement, which follows from the von Neumann theorem and an appropriate law of large numbers is that, for any ε>0, I can, in a long series of plays of the game with matrix M, guarantee, with probability approaching 1 as the number of plays becomes infinite, that his average actual gain per play exceeds v — ε and that II can similarly restrict his average actual loss to v-he. These facts are assertions about the extent to which each player can control the center of gravity of the actual payoffs in a long series of plays. In this paper we investigate the extent to which this center of gravity can be controlled by the players for the case of matrices M whose elements m(i9 j) are points of ΛΓ-space. Roughly, we seek to answer the following question. -
Blackwell, David; Diaconis, Persi a Non-Measurable Tail Set
Blackwell, David; Diaconis, Persi A non-measurable tail set. Statistics, probability and game theory, 1--5, IMS Lecture Notes Monogr. Ser., 30, Inst. Math. Statist., Hayward, CA, 1996. Blackwell, David Operator solution of infinite $G\sb \delta$ games of imperfect information. Probability, statistics, and mathematics, 83--87, Academic Press, Boston, MA, 1989. 60040 Blackwell, David; Mauldin, R. Daniel Ulam's redistribution of energy problem: collision transformations. Lett. Math. Phys. 10 (1985), no. 2-3, 149--153. Blackwell, David; Dubins, Lester E. An extension of Skorohod's almost sure representation theorem. Proc. Amer. Math. Soc. 89 (1983), no. 4, 691--692. 60B10 Blackwell, David; Maitra, Ashok Factorization of probability measures and absolutely measurable sets. Proc. Amer. Math. Soc. 92 (1984), no. 2, 251--254. Blackwell, David; Girshick, M. A. Theory of games and statistical decisions. Reprint of the 1954 edition. Dover Publications, Inc., New York, 1979. xi+355 pp. ISBN: 0-486-63831-6 90D35 (62Cxx) Blackwell, David On stationary policies. With discussion. J. Roy. Statist. Soc. Ser. 133 (1970), no. 1, 33--37. 90C40 Blackwell, David The stochastic processes of Borel gambling and dynamic programming. Ann. Statist. 4 (1976), no. 2, 370--374. Blackwell, David; Dubins, Lester E. On existence and non-existence of proper, regular, conditional distributions. Ann. Probability 3 (1975), no. 5, 741--752. Blackwell, David; MacQueen, James B. Ferguson distributions via Pólya urn schemes. Ann. Statist. 1 (1973), 353--355. Blackwell, David; Freedman, David On the amount of variance needed to escape from a strip. Ann. Probability 1 (1973), 772--787. Blackwell, David Discreteness of Ferguson selections. -
Econometrics
BIBLIOGRAPHY ISSUE 28, OCTOBER-NOVEMBER 2013 Econometrics http://library.bankofgreece.gr http://library.bankofgreece.gr Tables of contents Introduction...................................................................................................................2 I. Print collection of the Library...........................................................................................3 I.1 Monographs .................................................................................................................3 I.2 Periodicals.................................................................................................................. 33 II. Electronic collection of the Library ................................................................................ 35 II.1 Full text articles ..................................................................................................... 35 IΙI. Resources from the World Wide Web ......................................................................... 59 IV. List of topics published in previous issues of the Bibliography........................................ 61 Image cover: It has created through the website http://www.wordle.net All the issues are available at the internet: http://www.bankofgreece.gr/Pages/el/Bank/Library/news.aspx Bank of Greece / Centre for Culture, Research and Documentation / Library Unit / 21 El. Venizelos, 102 50 Athens / [email protected]/ Tel. 210 320 2446, 2522 / Bibliography: bimonthly electronic edition, Issue 28, September- October 2013 Contributors: -
Indian Statistical Institute
CHAPTER VII INDIAN STATISTICAL INSTITUTE 7.1 The Indian Statistical Institute (ISI) came into being with the pioneering initiative and efforts of Professor P.C. Mahalanobis in early thirties (registered on 28 April, 1932). The Institute expanded its research, teaching, training and project activities and got national/international recognitions. The Institute was recognized as an “Institute of National Importance” by an Act of Parliament, known as “Indian Statistical Institute Act No.57 of 1959”. Significantly, Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru, the then Prime Minister piloted the bill in the Parliament in 1959. This Act conferred the right to hold examinations and award degrees/diplomas in Statistics. Degree courses viz. Bachelor of Statistics (B.Stat.), Master of Statistics (M.Stat.) and post graduate diplomas in SQC & OR and Computer Science were started from June 1960. The Institute was also empowered to award Ph.D./D.Sc. degree from the same year. Subsequently, Master of Technology courses in Computer Science and in Quality, Reliability & Operations Research were also started. The Institute’s scope was further enlarged to award degrees/diplomas in Statistics, Mathematics, Quantitative Economics, Computer Science and such other subjects related to Statistics by virtue of “Indian Statistical Institute (Amendment) Act, 1995. The Institute took up research activities not only in Statistics/Mathematics but also in Natural and Social Sciences, Physics and Earth Sciences, Biological Sciences, Statistical Quality Control & Operations Research and Library and Information Sciences. 7.2 Sankhya – The Indian Journal of Statistics, being published by the Institute since 1933, is considered as one of the leading Statistical Journals of the world. -
Partial Least Squares Path Modeling Hengky Latan • Richard Noonan Editors
Partial Least Squares Path Modeling Hengky Latan • Richard Noonan Editors Partial Least Squares Path Modeling Basic Concepts, Methodological Issues and Applications 123 Editors Hengky Latan Richard Noonan Department of Accounting Institute of International Education STIE Bank BPD Jateng and Petra Stockholm University Christian University Stockholm, Sweden Semarang-Surabaya, Indonesia ISBN 978-3-319-64068-6 ISBN 978-3-319-64069-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-64069-3 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017955377 Mathematics Subject Classification (2010): 62H20, 62H25, 62H12, 62F12, 62F03, 62F40, 65C05, 62H30 © Springer International Publishing AG 2017 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. -
Econometrics As a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: on Lawrence R
Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich Pinzón-Fuchs To cite this version: Erich Pinzón-Fuchs. Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics. 2016. halshs-01364809 HAL Id: halshs-01364809 https://halshs.archives-ouvertes.fr/halshs-01364809 Preprint submitted on 12 Sep 2016 HAL is a multi-disciplinary open access L’archive ouverte pluridisciplinaire HAL, est archive for the deposit and dissemination of sci- destinée au dépôt et à la diffusion de documents entific research documents, whether they are pub- scientifiques de niveau recherche, publiés ou non, lished or not. The documents may come from émanant des établissements d’enseignement et de teaching and research institutions in France or recherche français ou étrangers, des laboratoires abroad, or from public or private research centers. publics ou privés. Documents de Travail du Centre d’Economie de la Sorbonne Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich PINZÓN FUCHS 2014.80 Maison des Sciences Économiques, 106-112 boulevard de L'Hôpital, 75647 Paris Cedex 13 http://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/ ISSN : 1955-611X Econometrics as a Pluralistic Scientific Tool for Economic Planning: On Lawrence R. Klein’s Econometrics Erich Pinzón Fuchs† October 2014 Abstract Lawrence R. Klein (1920-2013) played a major role in the construction and in the further dissemination of econometrics from the 1940s. Considered as one of the main developers and practitioners of macroeconometrics, Klein’s influence is reflected in his application of econometric modelling “to the analysis of economic fluctuations and economic policies” for which he was awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel in 1980. -
Rational Inattention with Sequential Information Sampling∗
Rational Inattention with Sequential Information Sampling∗ Benjamin Hébert y Michael Woodford z Stanford University Columbia University July 1, 2016 Preliminary and Incomplete. WARNING: Some results in this draft are not corrected as stated. Please contact the authors before citing. Comments welcome. Abstract We generalize the rationalize inattention framework proposed by Sims [2010] to allow for cost functions other than Shannon’s mutual information. We study a prob- lem in which a large number of successive samples of information about the decision situation, each only minimally informative by itself, can be taken before a decision must be made. We assume that the cost required for each individual increment of in- formation satisfies standard assumptions about continuity, differentiability, convexity, and monotonicity with respect to the Blackwell ordering of experiments, but need not correspond to mutual information. We show that any information cost function sat- isfying these axioms exhibits an invariance property which allows us to approximate it by a particular form of Taylor expansion, which is accurate whenever the signals acquired by an agent are not very informative. We give particular attention to the case in which the cost function for an individual increment to information satisfies the ad- ditional condition of “prior invariance,” so that it depends only on the way in which the probabilities of different observations depend on the state of the world, and not on the prior probabilities of different states. This case leads to a cost function for the overall quantity of information gathered that is not prior-invariant, but “sequentially prior-invariant.” We offer a complete characterization of the family of sequentially prior-invariant cost functions in the continuous-time limit of our dynamic model of in- formation sampling, and show how the resulting theory of rationally inattentive choice differs from both static and dynamic versions of a theory based on mutual information. -
An Annotated Bibliography on the Foundations of Statistical Inference
• AN ANNOTATED BIBLIOGRAPHY ON THE FOUNDATIONS OF STATISTICAL INFERENCE • by Stephen L. George A cooperative effort between the Department of Experimental • Statistics and the Southeastern Forest Experiment Station Forest Service U.S.D.A. Institute of Statistics Mimeograph Series No. 572 March 1968 The Foundations of Statistical Inference--A Bibliography During the past two hundred years there have been many differences of opinion on the validity of certain statistical methods and no evidence that ,. there will be any general agreement in the near future. Also, despite attempts at classification of particular approaches, there appears to be a spectrum of ideas rather than the existence of any clear-cut "schools of thought. " The following bibliography is concerned with the continuing discussion in the statistical literature on what may be loosely termed ''the foundations of statistical inference." A major emphasis is placed on the more recent works in this area and in particular on recent developments in Bayesian analysis. Invariably, a discussion on the foundations of statistical inference leads one to the more general area of scientific inference and eventually to the much more general question of inductive inference. Since this bibliography is intended mainly for those statisticians interested in the philosophical foundations of their chosen field, and not for practicing philosophers, the more general discussion of inductive inference was deliberately de-emphasized with the exception of several distinctive works of particular relevance to the statistical problem. Throughout, the temptation to gather papers in the sense of a collector was resisted and most of the papers listed are of immediate relevance to the problem at hand. -
Physica a the Pre-History of Econophysics and the History of Economics: Boltzmann Versus the Marginalists
Physica A 507 (2018) 89–98 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Physica A journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/physa The pre-history of econophysics and the history of economics: Boltzmann versus the marginalists Geoffrey Poitras 1 Simon Fraser University, Vancouver B.C., Canada V5A lS6 h i g h l i g h t s • A comparative intellectual history of econophysics and economic science is provided to demonstrate why and how econophysics is distinct from economics. • The history and role of the ergodicity hypothesis of Ludwig Boltzmann is considered. • The use of phenomenological methods in econophysics is detailed. • The role of ergodicity in empirical estimates of models in economics is identified. article info a b s t r a c t Article history: This paper contrasts developments in the pre-history of econophysics with the history of Received 7 January 2018 economics. The influence of classical physics on contributions of 19th century marginalists Received in revised form 17 March 2018 is identified and connections to the subsequent development of neoclassical economics Available online 21 May 2018 discussed. The pre-history of econophysics is traced to a seminal contribution in the history of statistical mechanics: the classical ergodicity hypothesis introduced by L. Boltzmann. Keywords: The subsequent role of the ergodicity hypothesis in empirical testing of the deterministic Ergodicity Ludwig Boltzmann theories of neoclassical economics is identified. The stochastic models used in modern eco- Econophysics nomics are compared with the more stochastically complex models of statistical mechanics Neoclassical economics used in econophysics. The influence of phenomenology in econophysics is identified and Marginal revolution discussed. -
David Blackwell Instance for Activities That Could Run Sometime Between Now and the End of June 2012
Volume 39 • Issue 8 IMS1935–2010 Bulletin October 2010 IMS Short Courses Proposal New IMS President Peter Hall outlines a proposed IMS program of short courses and Contents short meetings: 1 IMS Short Courses The IMS is considering developing a program of short courses and short meetings, reflecting all of the research areas encompassed by our journals. The motivation is at 2–3 Members’ News: Marta Sanz- Solé; David Brillinger; PK Sen; Elizaveta least two-fold. Firstly, we are not very widely involved in specialist meetings, and from Levina; Jerry Friedman; Samuel Kou; this point of view our scientific leadership can probably be enhanced. Secondly, in the Emily Berg; Wayne Fuller; Xuming He; area of short courses, there is an opportunity for both the IMS and its members to earn Jun Liu; Yajun Mei, Nicoleta Serban, a little extra income, by sharing the profits earned by delivering those courses. Roshan Joseph Vengazihiyil, Ming Yuan The best way in which to operate our short courses and short meetings will prob- ably be learned over time, but a few principles can be predicted in advance. In particu- 4 IMS 2010 Gothenburg meeting report & photos lar, the short courses and meetings should be held in places not in direct competition with relevant, major existing conferences, for example the Joint Statistical Meetings. Of 6 Peking University’s Center course, there are many opportunities for avoiding clashes such as these. The concept of for Statistical Science “IMS Winter Workshops” in North America, perhaps held in early January in southern 7 Conference in memory of US, is only one suggestion. -
Statistics in the International Encyclopedia of the Social Sciences
154 STATISTICS IN THE INTERNATIONAL ENCYCLOPEDIA OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES William Kruskal, University of Chicago A,number of interesting problems ESTIMATION have been faced in planning the sixty - I Point estimation odd statistical articles for the forth- (D. L. Burkholder) coming International Encyclopedia of the II Confidence intervals and regions Social Sciences. An encyclopedia has (J. Pfanzagl) many functions, and users approach it EVIDENCE, STATISTICS AS LEGAL in many ways. Should articles be pri- (Hans Zeisel) marily essays about parts of statistics, EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN without attempt at full coverage? I The design of experiments Should articles be handbook -like terse (William G. Cochran) summaries? How should controversial II Response surfaces (George E. P. areas, and widely differing viewpoints Box) towards statistics be treated? What III Quasi- experimental design about level of exposition? Following (Donald T. Campbell) discussion of such issues, brief des- IV Social experiments (Fred L. criptions were given of the intensive Strodtbeck) work on accuracy, clarity of exposition, EXPLANATION (Sidney Morgenbesser) etc., and of the structure of the sta- FACTOR ANALYSIS tistical topics to be treated. I Statistical aspects (A. E. Maxwell) PRELIMINARY LIST OF STATISTICS AND II Psychological applications STATISTICS - RELATED ARTICLES IN THE (Lloyd G. Humphreys) INTERNATIONAL ENCYCLOPEDIA OF THE FALLACIES, STATISTICAL (Irving John Good) SOCIAL SCIENCES FIDUCIAL INFERENCE (R. A. Fisher) GEOGRAPHY: Statistical Geography Topical Articles (Brian J. L. Berry) GOODNESS OF FIT (Herbert T. David) BAYESIAN INFERENCE (Harry V. Roberts) GOVERNMENT STATISTICS (Nathan Keyfitz) CAUSATION (Herbert A. Simon) GRAPHICS (Calvin F. Schmid) CENSUS (Conrad Taeuber) HYPOTHESIS TESTING (E. L. Lehmann) CLUSTERING (David Wallace) IDENTIFIABILITY, STATISTICAL COHORT ANALYSIS (Norman B. -
Ekonomporträttet: Herman Wold (1908–1992)
RAGNAR BENTZEL Ekonomporträttet: Herman Wold (1908–1992) Herman Wold måste sägas vara en av Sveriges mest inflytelserika ekonomer i modern tid. Han gjorde banbrytande insatser inom en rad centrala områden, främst vad gäller statistik, ekonometri och konsumtionsteori, och många av hans skrifter är fortfarande standard- referenser i den internationella litteraturen. Herman Wold fick aldrig det Nobelpris och efter studentexamen påbörjade han som han så hett eftertraktade. Själv var sina universitetsstudier i Stockholm. Där han övertygad om att han förr eller senare ägnade han sig åt matematik och matema- skulle få ett sådant pris och det var en tisk statistik under ledning av Harald svår besvikelse för honom att han aldrig Cramér. Han disputerade för doktorsgra- förunnades denna utmärkelse. Besvikel- den 1938, vilket renderade honom en do- sen blev inte mindre när hans vetenskap- centur vid Stockholms Högskola. lige ”motståndare” Tryggve Haavelmo Wold gjorde en snabb karriär och ut- prisbelönades år 1989. nämndes till professor i statistik vid Det är många som anser att Wold av Uppsala Universitet år 1942. Den tjänsten Vetenskapsakademien behandlades lite behöll han fram till 1970, då han flyttade snålt och att han borde blivit prisbelönad, till Göteborgs Universitet.1 Där stannade eventuellt tillsammans med Haavelmo han till sin pensionering fem år senare. och/eller någon annan. Kanske är den kri- Som pensionär återvände han till Uppsala tiken berättigad, kanske inte. Klart är Universitet. Han avled 1992. dock, att Wolds vetenskapliga meriter var av en sådan dignitet, att ett pris till honom Avhandlingen vore fullt tänkbart, men konkurrensen var hård. Doktorsavhandlingen från 1938, A Study Icke desto mindre kunde han se till- in the Analysis of Stationary Time Series, baka på en lysande akademisk karriär.