TARANAKI FACTS AND FIGURES WINTER2015 Trends

WELCOME TO TARANAKI TRENDS FOR WINTER 2015

Statistics are, by their very definition, backward looking. But while they capture how our region has performed - rather than what’s ahead - they do offer insights that can be incredibly valuable when planning for growth. This edition of Taranaki Trends tells a story of a region built on strong foundations. Our building consents are up, our population is growing, our economy has performed strongly and we have more people employed in more businesses. We can be justifiably proud of our region. But looking forward Taranaki is facing some economic challenges. Our two cornerstone industries – dairying and oil and gas – are being impacted by fluctuations in global commodity prices that sit beyond our region’s control. What we are able to control is our response, and this publication should become one of the assets in your business toolbox. As the winter’s weather rolls in, and the impacts of global commodity price movements reach our region, we encourage you to utilise the contents of this toolbox to maintain momentum and planning for the spring. If statistics and our past performances teach us anything, it is what goes down will ultimately rebound. And as Taranaki’s regional development agency, if the team here at Venture Taranaki can offer any further assistance to help your organisation grow, then please don’t hesitate to contact us.

Stuart Trundle Chief Executive Venture Taranaki

Winter Edition 2015: This edition of Taranaki Trends is published in May 2015 and remains current until November 2015

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 Economic Summary

TARANAKI GDP DEATHS FOR THE YEAR ENDING RETAIL SALES FOR THE SIX EMPLOYMENT PARTICIPATION DECEMBER 2014 MONTHS ENDING DECEMBER 2014 RATE up 7.2% on the previous year, now at $9.2B. relative to 2013. relative to the same period in 2013. annual rate to December 2014 relative to 2013.

EMPLOYEE NUMBERS NATURAL INCREASE IN ONLINE PURCHASES BY TARANAKI DEPARTURES OF TARANAKI annual change for 2014 relative to 2013. POPULATION RESIDENTS PEOPLE (BIRTHS LESS DEATHS) December 2014 quarter relative to the sam e per iod to overseas locations on a permanent long-term NUMBER OF BUSINESSES IN for year ending December 2014 compared to in 2013. basis. previous 12 months. TARANAKI

our annual change 2014 relative to 2013. GUEST NIGHTS IN TARANAK FIROM UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ARRIVALS DUE TO LONG -TERM VISITORS STAYING WITH FRIENDS PERMANENT INTERNATIONAL AND FAMILY IN 2014 annual rate to December 2014 relative to 2013. EMPLOYMENT BY MĀORI TRUSTS PEOPLE AND AUTHORITIES WITHIN relative to the previous 12 month period. year ending December 2014 relative to previous NUMBER OF GUEST NIGHTS TARANAKI 12 months. BY VISITORS STAYING IN Annual change for 2014 relative to 2013 ECONOMIC OUTLOOK FOR NEW COMMERCIAL ACOMMODATION ZEALAND BY TARANAKI AVERAGE HOUSE VALUATION FOR BUSINESSES outlets within Taranaki for year ending December 2014 relative to 2013. BIRTHS IN THE REGION FOR THE DECEMBER 2014 for the next 12 months. YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 2014 relative to December 2014, in the and South Taranaki Districts. relative to the previous 12 month period. HOME AFFORDABILITY WITHIN TARANAKI

Relative to same period 12 months. EMPLOYEE NUMBERS VALUE OF CONSTRUCTION CONSENTS FOR YEAR ENDING annual change for 2014 relative to 2013. DECEMBER 2014

relative to the previous 12 month period.

T ARAN AKI T R ENDS WINTER 2 0 1 5 PA GE 1 The Economy

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) – REGIONAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (REGIONAL GDP)

REGIONAL GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) IS A % % GEOGRAPHIC BREAKDOWN OF NATIONAL-LEVEL GDP, WHICH IS -0.2 0.8 NEW ZEALAND’S OFFICIAL MEASURE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. DEC 2014 QUARTER ANNUAL CHANGE IT IS THE SAME CONCEPTUALLY AS NATIONAL GDP, WITH THE GDP OF EACH REGION SUMMING TO THE NATIONAL GDP TOTAL*. CPI ANNUAL CHANGE

6.0 TARANAKI GDP: NEW ZEALAND 5.0 % 4.0 $9.2B 4.0 YEAR ENDED MARCH 2014 OF NEW ZEALAND’S GDP 3.0

2.0

1.0

0.0 Jun 05 Jun 08 Jun 09 Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 07 Jun 06 Jun 10 Jun 12 Jun 14 Dec 08 Dec 12 Dec 07 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 14 Dec 13 Dec 05 Dec 06 * Regional GDP analysis has not yet been standardised and may vary by methodology and by the economic firms that produce such data. The following analysis has been MAIN SOURCE OF CPI INCREASE WERE HIGHER PRICES FOR undertaken by Statistics NZ. CIGARETTES AND TOBACCO, INFLUENCED BY A TOBACCO TAX EXCISE DUTY RISE IN JANUARY 2014. PRICES FOR NEWLY BUILT HOUSES, RENTAL AND ELECTRICITY WERE ALSO UP. THE CHEAPER PETROL PRICE WAS THE MAIN DOWNWARD CONTRIBUTOR.

PAGE 2 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 REGIONAL GDP 2014 $BILLION GDP PER CAPITA 2014

$90 $90,000 $81.186 $80,297 $80 $80,000

$70 $70,000 $62,021

$60 $60,000 $57,135 $53,759 $53,054 $52,306 $51,051 $48,098

$50 $50,000 $46,684 $42,695 $42,213 $40,091 $40 $40,000 $39,442 $34,825 $34,602 $30.335 $30.204 $30 $30,000

$20 $20.576 $20,000 $11.862 $9.813 $9.147 $10 $9.170 $10,000 $6.354 $5.760 $5.502 $4.180 $2.282 $0 $1.721 $1.626 $0 Otago Otago Nelson Nelson Waikato Waikato Taranaki Taranaki Tasman / Tasman Gisborne Gisborne Tasman / Tasman Auckland Northland Northland Southland Southland Manawatu Manawatu Wellington -Wanganui Canterbury -Wanganui Canterbury West Coast West West Coast West Hawke’s Bay Hawke’s Marlborough Bay of Plenty Hawke’s Bay Hawke’s Marlborough Bay of Plenty

% CHANGE IN REGIONAL GDP 2013 - 2014

12.0 11.0 10.6 10.3 10.1 • OUR GDP INCREASED BY 7.2% RELATIVE TO 2013 10.0

7.8 7.8 7.7 • TARANAKI HAS THE HIGHEST GDP PER CAPITA ($80,297), 8.0 7.2 6.4 6.3 5.9 FOLLOWED BY WELLINGTON ($62,021) AND SOUTHLAND 5.6 5.4 6.0 5.1 4.4 ($57,135). THE NATIONAL AVERAGE BEING $51,319. 4.0

2.0

0.0 Otago Nelson Waikato Taranaki Gisborne Auckland Tasman / Tasman Northland Southland Wellington Manawatu Canterbury -Wanganui West Coast West Hawke’s Bay Hawke’s Marlborough Bay of Plenty

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 3 Labour Market

GROWTH IN EMPLOYEE NUMBERS 2013-2014 TARANAKI NEW ZEALAND 50,690* 2.5% TOTAL EMPLOYEE TOTAL EMPLOYEE TARANAKI NEW ZEALAND COUNT COUNT 2.9% 2.7% 2014 EMPLOYMENT % BY TARANAKI DISTRICT

TARANAKI EMPLOYMENT BY INDUSTRY

12,380 24% 10,000 South Taranaki District 9,000 8,000 7,000 2,910 6% 6,000 Stratford District 5,000 4,000 3,000 35,400 70% 2,000 1,000

0 Mining & Food Arts & & Safety Financial Education & Training Recreation Retail Trade Health Care Agriculture Construction Rental, Hiring Rental, Administrative Manufacturing Other Services Water Water & Waste INDUSTRIES WHICH HAVE THE MOST EMPLOYEES & Warehousing Accommodation Wholesale Trade Electricity, Gas, Gas, Electricity, Transport, Postal Transport, Forestry & Fishing Information Media & Support Services & Social Assistance & Technical Services & Technical Public Administration & Insurance Services Professional, Scientific Professional, & Telecommunications & Real Estate Services New Plymouth District Stratford South Taranaki Manufacturing Agriculture Manufacturing Retail Retail Agriculture * The regional employee count equates to the summation of employees within the three Health care and social services Education, health and social services Retail Taranaki District areas. This boundary differs slightly from the Taranaki regional boundary. Construction

PAGE 4 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE - TARANAKI v NZ DECEMBER QUARTER 2014 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE - REGIONAL COMPARISONS

8.0 10 9 7.0 8 6.0 7

5.0 6 5 4.0 4 3.0 3 2 2.0 1 1.0 0 0.0 Otago Nelson Waikato Taranaki Gisborne Auckland Tasman / Tasman Northland Southland Wellington Manawatu Canterbury -Wanganui Jun 11 Jun 13 Jun 14 Jun 09 Jun 08 Jun 12 Jun 07 Sep 07 Jun 10 Sep 13 Sep 14 Sep 09 Sep 10 Sep 11 Sep 12 Sep 08 Dec 12 Dec 14 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 08 Dec 07 Mar 08 Dec 11 Dec 06 Mar 11 Dec 13 West Coast West Mar 14 Mar 10 Mar 13 Mar 09 Mar 12 Mar 07 Hawke’s Bay Hawke’s Marlborough Bay of Plenty Taranaki New Zealand

TARANAKI HAS LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT AND A HIGHER PARTICIPATION RATE THAN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE.

ANNUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATE LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION RATE

TARANAKI NEW ZEALAND TARANAKI NEW ZEALAND 5.3% 5.8% 69.3% 68.9% ANNUAL RATE ANNUAL RATE ANNUAL RATE ANNUAL RATE TO DECEMBER 2014 TO DECEMBER 2014 TO DECEMBER 2014 TO DECEMBER 2014

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 5 Business Numbers

TARANAKI BUSINESSES - NUMBER OF BUSINESSES BY INDUSTRY TYPE 2014 TARANAKI TARANAKI BUSINESSES

% Agriculture , Forestry & Fishing 14,927 2.9 Rental, Hiring & Real Estate Services NUMBER OF OF NEW ZEALAND Construction Financial & Insurance Services BUSINESSES TOTAL Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Retail Trade Other Services Manufacturing Health Care & Social Assistance BUSINESS NUMBERS BY DISTRICT Accommodation & Food Services Wholesale Trade Transport, Postal & Warehousing Education & Training Administrative & Support Services % Arts & Recreation Services South Taranaki 29 Mining Public Administration & Safety 4,194 % Information Media & Telecommunications 61 New Plymouth District Electricity, Gas, Water & Waste Services 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 8,906 % Stratford 10 1,488 THE MAJORITY OF TARANAKI BUSINESSES ARE INVOLVED IN

INDUSTRIES THAT MAKE THE BIGGEST CONTRIBUTION TO BUSINESS NUMBERS PRIMARY PRODUCTION, WHICH INCLUDES FARMING AND SERVICES New Plymouth District Stratford South Taranaki TO AGRICULTURE. Agriculture Agriculture Agriculture Business services e.g. financial, Business services e.g. financial, Business services e.g. financial, rental ,real estate rental, real estate rental, real estate Retail & wholesale Construction Construction Construction Retail Retail Professional services, scientific, technical

PAGE 6 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 BUSINESS - PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN 2013 - 2014 TARANAKI’S INDUSTRY STRENGTHS 2.5 2.3 2.3 INCLUDE AGRICULTURE, ENERGY 2.0 1.7 1.5 AND ENGINEERING, AND THIS IS 1.1 1.0 REFLECTED IN OUR COMPARATIVELY 0.5 0.2 0.0 HIGHER EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION NZ New Plymouth Stratford South Taranaki Taranaki WITHIN THESE SECTORS RELATIVE TO THE NATIONAL AVERAGE. COMPARATIVE EMPLOYMENT COMPOSITION - NZ v TARANAKI 2014

20.0 18.0 16.0 14.0 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0

0.0 Arts & Mining & Food & Safety Financial Education & Training Recreation Agriculture Retail Trade Health Care Construction Rental, Hiring Rental, Administrative Manufacturing Other Services Water Water & Waste Electricity, Gas, Gas, Electricity, & Warehousing Accommodation Wholesale Trade Transport, Postal Transport, Information Media Forestry & Fishing & Support Services & Social Assistance & Technical Services & Technical Public Administration & Insurance Services & Telecommunications & Real Estate Services Professional, Scientific Professional,

Taranaki New Zealand

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 7 Ma- ori Authorities and Trusts

IN 2014, THERE WERE 970 MĀORI ENTERPRISES IN NEW NUMBER OF MĀORI AUTHORITIES / TRUSTS (GEOGRAPHIC UNITS)

ZEALAND, WHICH EXTENDS TO 1,194 WHEN INCLUDING 350 327

THEIR ‘GEOGRAPHIC UNITS’ (E.G. BRANCH OFFICES). 8,500 300

246 EMPLOYEES WORK FOR THESE ORGANISATIONS. 250

200

A Māori enterprise is defined by Statistics NZ as a Māori authority 150 129 or a Trust or a subsidiary of a Māori authority or Trust.* 111 100 78 75 72 57 45 45 Three-quarters of all Māori enterprises were in three industries: 50 3 • Rental, hiring and real estate services (41%) – predominantly 0 rental or leasing agricultural land or other commercial property regions Waikato Taranaki Gisborne Auckland Northland Wellington Manawatu -Wanganui South Island Area outside Hawke’s Bay Hawke’s • Agriculture, forestry and fishing (27%) Bay of Plenty • Financial and insurance services (10%) EMPLOYMENT WITHIN MĀORI AUTHORITIES / TRUSTS Of the 1,194 Māori authorities/trusts, there were 45 recorded in Taranaki and they employed 130 people. 2,000 1,780 1,800 1,680 1,600

* Māori Enterprise: An enterprise is treated as Māori enterprise if it meets one (or more) of these 1,400 1,250 conditions: 1,200 1,140 • It is an enterprise (business) with a collectively managed asset that uses current Inland 1,000 Revenue eligibility criteria to be a Māori authority (whether or not it elects to be a Māori 800 730 authority for tax purposes) 600 580 480 470 • It is a commercial business that supports the Māori authority’s business and social 400 activities, and sustains or builds a Māori authority’s asset base. 220 200 130 35 • It is a business that is 50 percent or more owned by Māori authorities. 0 regions Waikato Taranaki Gisborne Auckland Northland Wellington Manawatu -Wanganui South Island Area outside Hawke’s Bay Hawke’s Bay of Plenty

PAGE 8 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 Taranaki Economic Outlook

NZ BUSINESS CONDITIONS - NEXT 12 MONTHS

70% 1,000 TARANAKI BUSINESSES WERE SURVEYED 60% IN NOVEMBER 2014 REGARDING THE STATE OF 50% THE NEW ZEALAND ECONOMY AND TRADING 40% CONDITIONS FOR THE NEXT 12 MONTHS. 30% 20% • 31.3% ANTICIPATED IMPROVEMENT 10% • 54.9% ANTICIPATED THE STATUS QUO WILL PREVAIL 0% • 11% PREDICTED DETERIORATION Jun 11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun 14 Nov 99 Nov 00 Nov 01 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 08 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 11 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 May 00 May 01 May 02 May 03 May 04 May 05 May 06 May 07 May 08 May 09 May 10 • 3% WERE UNSURE

Improve Remain the same Deteriorate Don’t know

EMPLOYMENT - NEXT 6 MONTHS

90%

80% A TIGHTER TRADING AND 70% 60% EMPLOYMENT PERIOD IS 50% 40% ANTICIPATED FOR 2015. 30% 20%

10% 0% Jun 11 Jun 14 Jun 12 Jun 13 Nov 01 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov 02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov 05 Nov 08 Nov 99 Dec 09 Dec 10 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Nov 00 Dec 11 May 01 May 04 May 05 May 06 May 07 May 08 May 09 May 10 May 00 May 02 May 03

Improve Remain the same Deteriorate Don’t know

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 9 Population

TARANAKI’S REGIONAL UNDER 5 YEARS - LOCATION OF HIGHEST NUMBERS WITHIN TARANAKI 600 504 POPULATION IS ALMOST 500

400 330 110,000 PEOPLE. 312 306 291 300 264 264 261 255 252 243 207 201 NUMBER OF TARANAKI RESIDENTS UNDER 5 YEARS = 200 7,917. THIS IS 7.2% OF TOTAL TARANAKI POPULATION. 100

0 Kahui Fitzroy Inglewood Bell Block Frankleigh Struan Park Waitara East Waitara Waitara West Waitara Hawera North Hawera South TARANAKI POPULATION UNDER 5 YEARS - NUMBERS AND LOCATION Stratford West

OVER 500 UNDER 5-YEAR-OLDS 26% RESIDE IN THE BELL BLOCK AREA. 2,097 South Taranaki District Biggest growth areas in the region for under 5 year olds 9% (2013 census relative to previous census, 2006): 681 Stratford District • Bell Block +216 • Fitzroy +69 % • Highlands Park +60 65 • Inglewood +66 5,139 New Plymouth District • +54 • +45 • Hawera North (+54) & South (+60)

PAGE 10 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 NATURAL POPULATION INCREASE TARANAKI NEW ZEALAND NATURAL INCREASE IN POPULATION: TARANAKI DISTRICTS 2002 - 2014 YEAR END DECEMBER 0.1% -2.5% ANNUAL CHANGE IN BIRTHS ANNUAL CHANGE IN BIRTHS 500 2013-2014 2013-2014 400

300

200 TARANAKI NEW ZEALAND 100 % % 0 8.2 5.1 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 ANNUAL CHANGE IN DEATHS ANNUAL CHANGE IN DEATHS 2013-2014 2013-2014 New Plymouth District South Taranaki Stratford

NATURAL POPULATION INCREASE 2005 - 2014 THERE WERE 1,506 BIRTHS IN 40,000 900 TARANAKI DURING 2014 AND 961 35,000 800 700 DEATHS, RESULTING IN A NATURAL 30,000 600

25,000 Taranaki POPULATION INCREASE OF 545. 500 20,000

New Zealand 400 15,000 The natural population increase that occurred in Taranaki during 300 10,000 2014 was at a lower rate than the previous year, due to more deaths 200 occurring in the New Plymouth and South Taranaki Districts and fewer 5,000 100 births in New Plymouth District. New Zealand’s population continues 0 0 to grow through natural increase however its rate of growth has also 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 declined (down 10.2% in 2014). New Zealand Taranaki

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 11 Migration - Long-term International Arrivals and Departures

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION - ARRIVALS ANNUAL TO DECEMBER 2014 NET MIGRATION - TARANAKI DISTRICTS ANNUAL TO DECEMBER 2014

1,400 600

1,200 400

1,000 200

800 0

600 -200

400 -400

200 -600 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0 New Plymouth District South Taranaki Stratford 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

New Plymouth District South Taranaki Stratford

INTERNATIONAL MIGRATION - DEPARTURES ANNUAL TO DECEMBER 2014 There was a net gain of 492 people for Taranaki

1,400 in 2014, due to international arrivals to the region 1,200 exceeding international departures, predominantly 1,000 driven by the New Plymouth District. This is a 800 significant improvement on two years when there 600 was a net loss of 341 people, and the year prior (2011) 400 when there was a net loss of 451 people.

200

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

New Plymouth District South Taranaki Stratford

PAGE 12 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 NET MIGRATION - TARANAKI YEAR ENDING DEC (2000 - 2014) 2014 TARANAKI NET MIGRATION - BY AGE YEAR ENDING DECEMBER

800 100

600 492 80

400 253 60 238 200 -137 40 56 0 20 -5 -62 -73 -93 -89 -200 -165 0 -273 -400 -341 -20 -451 -600 -40 -670 -800 -60 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+

THE NET MIGRATION LOSS OF 20-24 YEAR OLDS FROM THE TARANAKI EXPERIENCED TARANAKI REGION HAS DECLINED IN RECENT YEARS, TO THE EXTENT THAT IN 2014 A NET GAIN IN MIGRATION IN IT WAS THE LOWEST SINCE 2003. ALL AGE BRACKETS WITH THE TARANAKI NET MIGRATION 20 - 24 YEAR OLDS 2002 - 2014

EXCEPTION OF THE 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 0

20-24 YEAR GROUPING. -50 -41 -43 -54 -74 -100 -82 -92 -112 -108 -115 -123 PEOPLE MAY LEAVE THE REGION TO GAIN INTERNATIONAL -150 WORK, STUDY, TRAVEL AND EXTEND LIFE SKILLS. -200 -192 -185 -202

-250

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 13 Work-Live Patterns in Taranaki

% WORKING OUTSIDE RESIDENT SETTLEMENT BUT WITHIN TARANAKI

80 69 69 70 70 64 HISTORICALLY PEOPLE TENDED 60 60 54 48 50 39 41 42 TO LIVE AND WORK IN THE SAME 40 34 30 25 TOWN BUT INCREASINGLY PEOPLE 20 10 MAY LIVE IN ONE LOCATION & 0 Patea Eltham Manaia Coastal Waitara Hawera Waverly Stratford Opunake Bell Block Inglewood

TRAVEL TO WORK IN ANOTHER. New Plymouth

WITHIN TARANAKI THIS TREND IS MONITORED BY VENTURE TARANAKI IN ITS WORK-LIVE ANALYSIS WHICH FOCUSES ON THE FOLLOWING SETTLEMENTS: BELL BLOCK; COASTAL; ELTHAM; HAWERA; INGLEWOOD; MANAIA; NEW PLYMOUTH; OPUNAKE; PATEA; STRATFORD; WAITARA; WAVERLEY. DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT FROM INGLEWOOD – A SATELLITE TOWN: WWW.TARANAKI.INFO • 69% of Inglewood residents who work, travel outside Inglewood for their jobs – predominantly in New Plymouth or Bell Block. • Only 29% of people who live in Inglewood work there as well.

PAGE 14 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 WAITARA HAS THE HIGHEST PROPORTION OF 60% OF ELTHAM RESIDENTS WORK PEOPLE WORKING OUTSIDE ITS TOWNSHIP (70%). THERE AS WELL. WAITARA OFFERS HOUSING AND LIFESTYLE AMENITIES, WHILST BEING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY THEIR AVERAGE INCOME IS $42,600. TO EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES. OF THE 70% OF PEOPLE WHO WORK OUTSIDE WAITARA, 39% WORK 39% OF PEOPLE WHO LIVE IN ELTHAM, IN BELL BLOCK AND 35% WORK IN NEW PLYMOUTH. WORK OUTSIDE ELTHAM; OF THESE 20% WORK IN STRATFORD.

Waitara 2006 Waitara 2013 Eltham 2006 Eltham 2013

27,700 29% 32,400 30% 35,800 60% 42,600 60%

34,700 69% 41,300 70% 38,600 38% 43,300 39%

33,600 2% 34,500 1% 33,600 2% 37,100 1%

Source: Statistics New Zealand Source: Statistics New Zealand

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 15 Housing

AVERAGE VALUE OF A HOUSE DECEMBER 2014

$1,000,000 $907,819 $900,000 $800,000 $700,000 TARANAKI IS THE FOURTH MOST $600,000 $510,418 ATTRACTIVE REGION IN THE COUNTRY IN $500,000 $488,674 $357,617 $400,000 $328,251 TERMS OF HOME AFFORDABILITY. $289,439 $300,000 $242,304 $201,493 $185,794 $182,365 HOME AFFORDABILITY REGIONAL RANKING $200,000 $165,335 $100,000 35 $0

fordable 30 Less af 25 Clutha Stratford Wanganui Napier City 20 New Zealand Auckland City South Taranaki Selwyn District Manawatu District Palmerston North City New Plymouth District 15

12 10 10.4 10 5 8

More affordable 0 6 4.9 4.9 Otago Central

3.5 Nelson/

4 Taranaki Auckland Westland Northland Southland Wanganui Wellington Manawatu/ Canterbury/ Hawkes Bay Otago Lakes 2 1.6 Waikato/BOP 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.6 0 -0.5 HOWEVER, IN THE LAST 12 MONTHS TARANAKI’S HOME -2 AFFORDABILITY DECLINED BY 7.1%. THIS WAS LESS THAN THE -2.7 -4 NATIONAL TREND WHERE NEW ZEALAND’S AVERAGE HOME HOUSE VALUES - % CHANGE IN VALUE BETWEEN DECEMBER 2014 AND DECEMBER 2013 AFFORDABILITY INDEX DECLINED 14.1%, AND IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE IN 2015. AUCKLAND REMAINS THE LEAST House valuations have continued to increase in the Taranaki region, particularly within the New Plymouth District. The average valuation of a house within the New Plymouth District is currently higher than the average house AFFORDABLE PLACE IN THE COUNTRY WITH ITS INDEX RISING valuation in Napier and Palmerston North. The average house valuation in Stratford is higher than the South Taranaki MARGINALLY TO 40% ABOVE THAT FOR THE WHOLE COUNTRY. District, which is, in turn, higher than Wanganui.

PAGE 16 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 Rentals

THE RENTAL MARKET IN RENTS PER WEEK ($) - FEBRUARY 2015 550 NEW PLYMOUTH INDICATES 500 RENTALS HAVE INCREASED 450 400 SLIGHTLY (UP 1.6%) WITH 350 300

THE AVERAGE WEEKLY RENT 250 AT $310 PER WEEK. THIS 200 150

COMPARES WITH A CURRENT 100 AVERAGE RENTAL OF $365 PER 50 0 Kapiti Napier Nelson Porirua Rotorua Dunedin

WEEK ON A NATIONAL BASIS. Hastings Hamilton Gisborne Auckland Tauranga Manukau Papakura Wanganui Waitakere Wellington Upper Hutt Whangarei Invercargill Lower Hutt North Shore New Plymouth Palmerston North

NEW PLYMOUTH NEW ZEALAND NEW PLYMOUTH NEW ZEALAND $310 $365 1.6% 4.3% MEDIAN RENT MEDIAN RENT PERCENTAGE CHANGE PERCENTAGE CHANGE FEBRUARY 2015 FEBRUARY 2015 FEBRUARY 2014 - 2015 FEBRUARY 2014 - 2015

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 17 Construction Activity

VALUE OF BUILDING CONSENTS 2000-2014 FOR THE YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 250 2014 IN TARANAKI THERE WERE 200 $310 MILLION OF BUILDING 150

CONSENTS APPROVED. $ Millions

100

TOTAL $ VALUE OF BUILDING CONSENTS COMMERCIAL & RESIDENTIAL YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 2014 50

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 New Plymouth District South Taranaki Stratford 57.5MILLION South Taranaki District VALUE OF BUILDING CONSENTS - % CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR (ANNUAL TO DEC 2014)

45 21.4MILLION 38.6 Stratford District 40 35 30.7 30 27.2 25 231.1MILLION 20.7 New Plymouth District 20

15 11.9 10 5 0 Taranaki NZ NPD Stratford South Taranaki

PAGE 18 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 VALUE OF RESIDENTIAL CONSENTS (NEW AND ALTERATIONS) YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 2014 TOTAL COMMERCIAL BUILDING CONSENTS YEAR ENDING 2014

160 100

90 140 80 120 70

100 60

80 50 $ Millions $ Millions 40 60 30 40 20

20 10

0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

New Plymouth District South Taranaki Stratford New Plymouth District South Taranaki Stratford

RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL CONSTRUCTION WITHIN THE THREE TARANAKI CONSTRUCTION WITHIN THE DISTRICTS HAS BEEN PARTICULARLY ACTIVE DURING 2014 THIS INCLUDES HOTEL DEVELOPMENT, NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT HOSPITAL/NURSING HOMES, SHOPS AND DAIRY HAS REMAINED STRONG FACTORY EXPANSION. DURING 2014.

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 19 Retail Sales

FOR THE HALF-YEAR ENDING DECEMBER 2014, $581M WAS SPENT AT RETAIL MERCHANTS IN TARANAKI.

SPENDING WITHIN TARANAKI JULY 2014 - DECEMBER 2014 RETAIL SPEND WITHIN TARANAKI DISTRICTS JULY-DEC 2014

$140m South Taranaki District $120m % 17 $99.93m $100m

$80m New Plymouth Stratford $60m District Council % % District 75 8 $434.40m $46.85m $40m

$20m

$0 m July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

SPENDING WITHIN TARANAKI WAS UP 1.4% FOR THE HALF-YEAR, RELATIVE TO THE SAME PERIOD IN 2013, ALTHOUGH THIS WAS LESS THAN THE NEW ZEALAND AVERAGE OF 5.5%.

PAGE 20 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 Online Sales

TARANAKI: MONTHLY PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN RETAIL SALES (JULY T0 DECEMBER 2014) TARANAKI RESIDENTS INCREASED THEIR ONLINE SPENDING COMPARED WITH THE SAME PERIOD IN 2013 5.5% 6% DURING THE DECEMBER 2014 QUARTER RELATIVE TO THE

3.6% 4% 3.3% PREVIOUS YEAR (5.4%). THIS OCCURED AT A MUCH HIGHER 2.0% 2% RATE THAN THEIR EXPENDITURE AT PHYSICAL STORES.

0% HOWEVER THE REGIONAL GROWTH IN ONLINE SHOPPING IN -0.5% -2% TARANAKI IS LESS THAN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE OF 6.4%.

-4% -4.3% -6% July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec TARANAKI GROWTH IN ONLINE SALES v TOTAL RETAIL SALES

25% STRONGEST RETAIL GROWTH WAS 20% 15% RECORDED IN THE STRATFORD 10% DISTRICT WITH A 4.6% GAIN. 5% 0%

-5% Mar 2013 Jun 2013 Sep 2013 Dec 2013 Mar 2014 Jun 2014 Sep 2014 Dec 2014

PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN RETAIL SPEND JULY - DEC 2014 COMPARED WITH SAME PERIOD 2013 Online Sales Total Sales

5% 4.6%

4% KEY AREAS OF ONLINE SPENDING INCLUDE DEPARTMENT, VARIETY AND ‘OTHER’, FOLLOWED BY GROCERIES AND LIQUOR. 3%

2% 1.1% 1.1% 1%

0% New Plymouth Stratford South Taranaki

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 21 Visitor Industry

TARANAKI DISTRICT COMMERCIAL GUEST NIGHT

TARANAKI NEW ZEALAND 70,000 % % 60,000 -6.2 5.8 50,000 PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN GUEST PERCENTAGE CHANGE IN GUEST NIGHTS YEAR ENDING DEC 2014 NIGHTS YEAR ENDING DEC 2014 40,000 30,000

20,000

10,000

TARANAKI 2014 COMMERCIAL 0 Jul 13 Jul 14 Oct 13 Oct 14 Apr 13 Apr 14 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jun 13 Jun 14 Feb 13 Feb 14 Nov 13 Nov 14 Sep 13 Sep 14 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Aug 13 Aug 14 Mar 13 Mar 14 May 13 ACCOMMODATION RESULTS FOR May 14 New Plymouth District South Taranaki Stratford THE YEAR ENDED DECEMBER AVERAGE LENGTH OF STAY IN COMMERCIAL ACCOMMODATION 3.5

COMPARED WITH 2013: 3

2.5 • Guest nights fell 6.2 percent to 553,209 2 • International guest nights fell 19.9 percent to 70,656 1.5 • Domestic guest nights fell 3.8 percent to 482,553 1 • The average length of stay fell from 2.20 nights to 2.04 nights 0.5 • The overall occupancy rate fell from 34.4 percent to 32.9 percent 0 • The occupancy rate, excluding holiday parks, was 45.3 percent Jul 14 Jul 13 Oct 13 Oct 14 Apr 14 Apr 13 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jun 14 Jun 13 Feb 14 Feb 13 Nov 13 Nov 14 Sep 13 Sep 14 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 12 Aug 13 Aug 14 Mar 14 Mar 13 May 14 May 13

New Plymouth District South Taranaki Stratford

PAGE 22 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 2014 PROVED A MORE CHALLENGING YEAR FOR COMMERCIAL TARANAKI VISITOR ARRIVAL % CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS YEAR - YEAR ENDING DEC ACCOMMODATION OUTLETS WITHIN THE REGION. 16 COMMERCIAL GUEST NIGHT % GROWTH BY ACCOMMODATION TYPE 2013-2014 14

15 12

10 10

5 8

0 6

-5 4

-10 2

-15 0 Hotels Motels Backpackers Holiday Parks Total -2 Taranaki NZ -4 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 TARANAKI GUEST NIGHTS BY ACCOMMODATION TYPE YEAR ENDING 2014 Taranaki NZ

% 8 Backpackers % MOTELS COMPRISED 45% OF Holiday Parks 25 TARANAKI’S TOTAL COMMERCIAL % GUEST NIGHTS FOR 2014. 45 Motels % Hotels 22 ALTHOUGH GUEST NIGHTS WERE DOWN, VISITOR ARRIVALS WERE UP ON 2013, SUGGESTING VISITORS STAYED A SHORTER PERIOD. TARANAKI’S RATE OF GROWTH WAS SLIGHTLY LESS THAN THE NEW ZEALAND AVERAGE.

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 23 Visitor Industry

TARANAKI’S OVERALL OCCUPANCY RATE FOR THE YEAR WAS 32.9%. WHEN HOLIDAY PARKS ARE EXCLUDED FROM THIS ANALYSIS, TARANAKI TARANAKI 45.3% 32.9% TARANAKI’S OCCUPANCY RATE WAS 45.3%. OCCUPANCY RATE OCCUPANCY RATE • THE AVERAGE LENGTH OF STAY BY GUESTS IN TARANAKI DIFFERS HOLIDAY PARKS EXCLUDED HOLIDAY PARKS INCLUDED BY ACCOMMODATION TYPE: • HOTELS: 1.88 NIGHTS • MOTELS/APARTMENTS: 1.85 NIGHTS • BACKPACKERS: 2.57 NIGHTS • HOLIDAY PARKS: 2.53 NIGHTS

OCCUPANCY RATE TARANAKI v NEW ZEALAND OCCUPANCY RATE

60 60

50 50

40 40

30 30

20 20

10 10

0 0 Jul 13 Jul 14 Oct 13 Oct 14 Apr 13 Apr 14 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jun 13 Jun 14 Feb 13 Feb 14 Nov 13 Nov 14 Sep 13 Sep 14 Jul 14 Jul 13 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Aug 13 Aug 14 Mar 13 Mar 14 May 13 May 14 Oct 13 Oct 14 Apr 14 Apr 13 Jan 14 Jan 13 Jun 14 Jun 13 Feb 14 Feb 13 Nov 13 Nov 14 Sep 13 Sep 14 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Aug 13 Aug 14 Mar 14 Mar 13 May 14 May 13

New Zealand Taranaki New Plymouth District South Taranaki Stratford

PAGE 24 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 Visitors Staying with Friends and Relatives (VFR)

VFR GUEST NIGHTS YEAR ENDING DECEMBER PURPOSE OF VISIT (%) - VISITORS STAYING WITH FAMILY OR FRIENDS DECEMBER 2014

Other Sports/Hobbies/Recreation 2011 Business Conference

2012 General Holiday/Leisure Visiting Family or Friends 2013 2014

0 200 400 650 800 1000 2000 3000 4000 Thousands

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

GUEST NIGHTS IN TARANAKI FROM VISITORS STAYING WITH FRIENDS AND FAMILY DURING 2014 OVER 1.1 MILLION VFR GUEST NIGHTS WERE RECORDED IN 2014. 200,000 This is an increase of 10.9% over 2013, December and January 180,000 are the prime months for the region’s influx of VFR guests. 160,000 140,000 VFR VISITORS - COMPOSITION 2014 120,000

100,000 80,000 % 30 International 60,000

40,000

20,000

0 % 70 Domestic Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Venture Taranaki commissions an independent monthly phone survey of Taranaki households, to monitor visitors to the region who stay with friends and relatives. Although they do not stay at commercial accommodation, they still make an important contribution to our regional economy through their other forms of expenditure.

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 25 Visitor Expenditure

VISITORS TO TARANAKI SPENT ALMOST $59 MILLION AT OUR RETAIL OUTLETS DURING THE 6 MONTH PERIOD ENDING DECEMBER 2014.

OF THIS, OVER $45.8M WAS SPENT WITHIN VISITOR EXPENDITURE IN TARANAKI - 6 MONTHS ENDING DEC 2014 $M THE NEW PLYMOUTH DISTRICT, $4.3M IN 50 45 STRATFORD AND $8.8M WAS SPENT WITHIN 40 THE SOUTH TARANAKI DISTRICT. 35 30

25

Millions 20

$51M WAS DOMESTIC VISITOR EXPENDITURE, 15 WITH THE BALANCE FROM INTERNATIONAL 10 5 VISITORS. 0 New Plymouth District Stratford South Taranaki

International expenditure Domestic expenditure

PAGE 26 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 Airport Movements

OVER 340,000 PASSENGERS NEW PLYMOUTH AIRPORT PASSENGERS - GROWTH ON PREVIOUS YEAR (%) 20

UTILISED THE NEW PLYMOUTH 15 AIRPORT DURING 2014 – THE 10 5

HIGHEST EVER RECORDED. 0

-5

-10

-15 NEW PLYMOUTH AIRPORT - TOTAL PASSENGER MOVEMENTS - YEAR TO DEC

350,000

300,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 3006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

250,000 200,000 PASSENGER MOVEMENTS ARE 125% 150,000 HIGHER NOW THAN THEY WERE 100,000 50,000 FIFTEEN YEARS AGO – REFLECTING 0 THE PROGRESS AND INCREASING 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011 2012 2013 2014 2010 ATTRACTIVENESS OF TARANAKI, ITS LIFESTYLE AND ECONOMY.

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 27 Technical Details

Consumer Price Index (CPI): Statistics NZ. The CPI measures the rate of price change of goods and services purchased Average household weekly income: Statistics NZ: Weekly household income is the sum of weekly income of all people by New Zealand households. Statistics NZ visits 3,000 shops around New Zealand to collect prices for the CPI and check in the household from all sources. Average weekly household income is total weekly household income, divided by the product sizes and features. number of households. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Statistics NZ. House values and average value of a house: Source: QV.co.nz: QV.co.nz is powered by PropertyIQ, a joint venture between CoreLogic and Quotable Value. Note: these are house valuations, not house sales. Economic Activity: ANZ Regional Trends. Note: this information is not GDP data but a composition of specific indicators selected by the ANZ e.g. retail sales, employment data, house sales, guest nights, car sales etc. The report tracks the overall House Sales: Real Estate Institute of NZ. Note: These are house sales, and the data only includes those sales undertaken summation of changes on a regional basis annually and quarterly. by members of the REINZ. Does not include e.g. private sales. Economic Outlook: Venture Taranaki. This reflects the results of VT’s Six-monthly business survey of Taranaki businesses. Home Affordability: Massey University Home Affordability Report. The survey involved a cross-section of 1000 businesses. The survey is undertaken in June and November of each year. Rental Market: Massey University Rental market report. Employee Count: Statistics NZ Business demography. Business demographic statistics give an annual snapshot (as at Building consents: Statistics NZ February); limited to economically significant individual, private-sector and public-sector enterprises that are engaged in the production of goods and services in New Zealand; generally includes all employing units and those enterprises with GST Agriculture: Statistics NZ. Annual Agriculture Production Survey. turnover greater than $30,000 per year. Employee count is a head-count of all salary and wage earners for the February Farm Capital Improvements/Farm building consents: Statistics NZ reference month. NB: this may not include self-employed or those within the business that are not classified as employees. Farm Sales: Real Estate Institute of NZ. Note: Only includes sales undertaken by members of the REINZ. Does not include Unemployment rate and Participation Rate: Statistics NZ Household Labour Force survey. private or other means of selling farms. Employment Outlook: Taranaki: Venture Taranaki. Six-monthly business survey of Taranaki businesses, undertaken June 2013. Retail Statistics: Market View customized research for Venture Taranaki utilizing EFTPOS sales and BNZ credit cards. Skill shortage monitor: Venture Taranaki. Six-monthly business survey of Taranaki businesses, undertaken May and Commercial accommodation statistics: Statistics NZ November each year. Visitors staying with friends/relatives: Venture Taranaki commissioned survey data, undertaken by APR consultants. Business numbers: Statistics NZ Business demography, undertaken February each year. Exports/Imports: Statistics NZ data. Note: this data may not include coastal trade and the methodology utilized by Statistics Population count: Statistics NZ. Census NZ may not reflect the totality of trade activity which occurs across each NZ Port as part of the overall port transportation process. Natural Population Increase: Statistics NZ: Births and Deaths Total data and activity: Provided by Port Taranaki. This data includes coastal trade and the summation of Migration: Statistics NZ. Permanent Long-term departures and Arrivals. Permanent and long-term arrivals include overseas all exports and imports crossing the port. migrants who arrive in New Zealand intending to stay for a period of 12 months or more (or permanently), plus New Zealand New Plymouth Airport passenger movements: Provided by New Plymouth District Council. residents returning after an absence of 12 months or more. Permanent and long-term departures include New Zealand resi- dents departing for an intended period of 12 months or more (or permanently), plus overseas visitors departing New Zealand after a stay of 12 months or more. Average weekly earnings: Statistics NZ: Total usual weekly earnings from self-employment and wage and salary jobs (earnings from paid employment), divided by the number of people receiving earnings from a self-employment or wage and salary job (number of people in paid employment).

PAGE 28 TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 About Venture Taranaki

As Taranaki’s Regional Development Agency, we’re committed to helping Taranaki grow. That’s why we’re interested in helping to make your business a success. If you need advice and assistance or access to information and knowledge to support your business aspiration, we offer a single point of contact to provide the help you require.

If you are: • Thinking of starting up a business • Considering relocating or investing in Taranaki • Trying to grow your business, or if your business is going through changes

We have a range of products and services to meet your business needs, and best of all, most of them are free! Information is available on-line at www.business.taranaki.info or call us:

Venture Taranaki 9 Robe Street PO Box 670 New Plymouth

Telephone (06) 759 5150 Email: [email protected] Facebook: TaranakiNZ Twitter: @Taranaki_NZ

Disclaimer: Venture Taranaki’s services and opinions are of a general nature and should be used as a guide only. They are not a substitute for commercial judgment or independent professional advice which should be obtained prior to any business matter. While every effort has been made to ensure that the information, opinions and forecasts provided are accurate and reliable, Venture Taranaki shall not be liable for any adverse consequences of decisions made in reliance of any report provided in this publication.

TARANAKI TRENDS WINTER 2015 PAGE 29 TGM CREATIVE 02968 9 RobeStreet |POBox 670|New Plymouth Taranaki’s Regional Development Agency P. (06)7595150|F. (06)7595154 E. [email protected] www.taranaki.info