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Microsoft Corp. BUY Company Update : Enterprise Software

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Microsoft Corp. BUY Company Update : Enterprise Software May 16, 2019 Microsoft Corp. BUY Company Update : Enterprise Software Labor-atory #18 - review of job openings new data This report is our eighteenth in a series of reviews of Microsoft’s Jay Vleeschhouwer open positions. We compile and compare the positions shown in [email protected] the “careers” website by job functions, e.g., engineering, sales, 646-442-4251 services; by region & country, and by products, brands, and other selected keywords. In addition, in the “special assignments” section, we show a selection of interesting or indicative positions, Stock Symbol NASDAQ: MSFT and in the “related companies” section we show positions at Current Price $128.93 Microsoft pertaining to our other coverage companies that sell to 12 mos. Target Price $145.00 and/or partner with Microsoft. For a comparable review of the jobs Market Cap $825,406.9 mln data at those companies, e.g., Adobe, Autodesk, PTC, et al, see Shares O/S 7,744.0 mln too our May 9th, 2019 industry report, “ Labor-atory #17.4: nice Avg Daily Vol. (3 mos.) 25,424,792 shs. work if you can get it”. 52-Week Price Low/High $71.70 - $111.15 The current compilation shows combined positions for software P/B 12.0x engineering, hardware engineering, sales, and services (i.e., Price/ FCF 0.0x consulting services, customer service & support) of about 2,635, Fiscal Year End Jun as compared with about 3,400 six months ago and about 4,150 a year ago; the highest total to date, since we began these ROE 37% reviews in 2012, was in late 2015 (about 4,950), driven at the Dividend / Yield $1.68 / 1.3% time by large increases in sales and services. A reasonable EPS interpretation of the recent decline is that many of the large numbers of prior openings, particularly in sales, were filled (and FY 19E FY 20E FY 21E Microsoft is absorbing the capacity). Microsoft too now (by the Q1 (Sep) $1.14A $1.12E $1.29E way) has a “ customer success” group, as we’ve seen at a number Q2 (Dec) 1.08A 1.25E 1.41E of our other companies. Q3 (Mar) 1.14A 1.19E 1.33E The number of software engineering positions, always the Q4 (Jun) 1.18E 1.33E 1.45E largest category, was down from six months and a year ago, $4.54E $4.89E $5.48E though software engineering still accounts for the majority of P/E 28.4x 26.4x 23.5x the combined engineering-sales-services positions counted here. The next largest category, services, was also down from six 125 months and a year ago; enterprise services revenues have grown 120 for the past seven quarters, and we expect this business to 115 increase in FY19, FY20, and FY21, with a stable to improving 110 gross margin. as might be expected, Azure-ness is pervasive 105 in the data. The positions for LinkedIn are counted and shown 100 separately from the Microsoft careers website (see below). 95 As of the end of FY18, Microsoft had about 131,000 employees 90 (vs. 124,000 at FY17, 114,000 at FY16, 118,000 at FY15 and 85 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 128,000 at FY14), including 78,000 in the U.S. (up 5,000 from Microsoft Corp. FY17) and 53,000 internationally (up 2,000). There were 42,000 in R&D, up 2,000, vs. the increase of 3,000 in FY17, and 36,000 in sales & marketing, up 2,000 vs. the increase of 5,000 in FY17 (which included the acquisition of LinkedIn). There were 42,000 combined in operations, including manufacturing, distribution, product support and consulting services, up 3,000, and, 11,000 in G&A (flat, vs. the 1,000 increase in FY17). 17 State Street, 3rd Floor, New York, NY 10004 • 212.509.9500 • www.griffinsecurities.com Please Review Disclosures on Page 23 of This Report Microsoft Corp. May 16, 2019 For the TTM ending 3Q19, total R&D expenses were $16.296 billion, vs. $14.307 billion for the TTM ended 3Q18, or slightly more than $15.0 billion excluding LinkedIn, vs. $13.1 billion in the year-earlier TTM, when we exclude LinkedIn's direct expenses. Sales & marketing expenses for the TTM were $18.021 billion, vs. $17.065 billion, or about $15.4 billion vs. $14.7 billion when we exclude LinkedIn. For FY19, we’re estimating R&D of $16.586 billion, up almost 13%, or $15.3 billion, up 13%, excluding LinkedIn, and sales & marketing of $18.596 billion, up 6.5%, or almost $16.5 billion, up 5%, excluding LinkedIn. The current number of software engineering (“SE”) positons was about ≈1,530, vs. ≈1,890 six months ago, ≈2,300 a year ago, and ≈1,400 three years ago. Americas software engineering (≈1,250) continued to account for the preponderance of the total software positions (over 80%). The current number of positons happens to be similar to the 2012-2017 U.S. average of ≈1,275. The variances over time in these positions has often been tied to the timing of new product launches or major updates (as we saw with the Windows 10 launch a few years ago) and to the initiation of new projects or programs, plus other factors, such as seasonality. The number of EMEA software engineering positions (now slightly more than 100), usually the lowest of the major regions, has been more or less flat over the past six months, though down by a third from a year ago. The open positions by the many countries that comprise EMEA has clearly varied over time, i.e., France, Ireland, Germany and the U.K. have declined over the past year, while Israel, with the majority still of software engineering positions in the region, has been stable (Israel has the fourth-highest number of SE openings, after the U.S., India, and China). Aside from the aforementioned countries, we counted a handful of SE positions in each of Czech Republic, Estonia, Norway, and Switzerland. The number of Asia software engineering positions (≈170) was down by more than a fourth from SI months ago and by more than a third from a year ago; the 2012-2017 SE average in Asia had been ≈200. The largest change from six months ago was the decline in India, though it still had the majority of SE positions in the region, followed by China (which was down slightly from six months ago and a year ago). Australia, Japan and Taiwan each have only a handful of SE positions. The number of sales positions – now about 245 – was the lowest we’ve counted to date. The total declined by almost half from six months ago and by more than three-fourths from a year ago. The 2012- 2017 average had been about ≈940. Each of the three regions declined from six months ago and a year ago; the Americas appear to have had the largest proportionate decline from a year ago and Asia the smallest. As it turns out, EMEA (≈100) has had the largest number of sales openings over the past six months. Within EMEA, Ireland happens to have had the largest number by country; France and Germany were down from six months ago, while the U.K. was slightly higher. In Asia (now about 70, down from about 100 six months ago and more than 100 a year ago), Japan happens to have the largest number of sales openings. Six months ago, China had the largest number in the region, followed by Australia, but these have since declined significantly (China by more than half, Australia by almost three-fourths from an unusually high number at the time), perhaps, or probably, reflecting the filling of many of those prior openings; it had been evident from prior reviews that the company had begun paying more attention to Australia in terms of both sales and services capacity). Hardware engineering remains a small category, though the development of hardware brands (HoloLens, Surface, Xbox) and silicon development are nonetheless strategically important. The number of positions (≈170) more than doubled from six months and nearly doubled from a year ago. Hardware engineering encompasses a variety of functions, including product design activities (e.g., IC engineering, mechanical engineering, etc.) as well as a number of related production and operations functions. Griffin Securities Equity Research 2 Microsoft Corp. May 16, 2019 In a related search of “supply chain & operations management”, we found ≈20 positions, down by about half from six months ago and by more than half from a year ago. It is here, in supply chain & operations management, where Microsoft has become an important PLM customer (to manage its various hardware businesses) and as well in managing the hardware in its data centers (see too our May 1st, 2019 industry update, “PLM in flux”). The number of services positions – now about 685 – was down by almost a third from six months ago and from a year ago. The peak in services positions occurred in late 2015 (≈1,780). For FY19, we’re estimating enterprise services revenues of $6.18 billion, up 6% (with a 31.5% gross margin). The LinkedIn “careers” website shows ≈630 positions globally (up from ≈550 six months ago and about ≈550 a year ago), including ≈360 in the U.S., followed by Ireland (≈110) and India (≈40). We counted about ≈200 sales positions (vs. ≈225 six months ago) and ≈150 engineering positions (vs. ≈140 six months and ≈110 a year ago).
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