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January 15 2020

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January 15 2020 Israel and the Middle East News Update Wednesday, January 15 Headlines: • Syrian Army Says Israel Attacked T- 4 Airbase • Intel: Iran Will Have Enough Enriched Uranium for Nuke by Year's End • In First, Turkey Included as Threat in IDF’s Annual Intel Assessment • In a Boon to Netanyahu, Johnson's Backing of Nuclear Deal Plan • Likud Again Pushing to Get Extremists into Knesset on Far-Right Slate • Knesset Speaker, in the Eye of Netanyahu's Immunity Storm • Wife of Rabin Assassin Registers Party • Obama’s Middle East Policy Team has a New Home in Warren’s Campaign Commentary: • Al Monitor: “Has Netanyahu Outsmarted Himself in Push for Right-Wing Merger?” - By Shlomi Eldar commentator at Al Monitor • Ha’aretz: “The Israeli Left's Labor-Meretz Linkup: An Alliance Forged by Fear, Not Love” - By Ravit Hecht commentator at Ha’aretz S. Daniel Abraham Center for Middle East Peace 633 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 5th Floor, Washington, DC 20004 www.centerpeace.org ● Yoni Komorov, Editor News Excerpts January 15, 2020 Ynet News Syrian Army Says Israel Attacked T- 4 Airbase The Israeli Air Force attacked T-4 military airport near the city of Homs in western Syria, state news agency SANA reported Tuesday. According to the report, four missiles hit the base, causing no casualties. Syrian television reports that the attack was carried out by unmanned aircraft and by missiles partially intercepted by air defense systems. The T-4 airbase has been attacked at least four times in recent years. The base is believed to be a storage point for personnel and equipment delivered and used by Iran's Quds Forces in Syria. These attacks were attributed to the Israeli Air Force. See also, “Syria says Israeli aircraft strike base thought used by Iranian forces” (TOI) Ha’aretz Intel: Iran Will Have Enough Enriched Uranium for Nuke by Year's End Iran will have a sufficient amount of enriched uranium to produce one nuclear bomb by the end of the year, according to Israeli army intelligence estimates for 2020. However, the Israeli army believes that at this stage, Tehran does not posses a missile capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, and would need at least two years to develop such capabilities. The United States' exit from the nuclear agreement signed in 2015 brings intelligence officials to estimate that Iran's nuclear program is running again after years of not violating the agreement. Israel's security establishment has assessed that by the end of 2020, Iran will have the required amount of enriched uranium to produce one nuclear bomb. See also, “The Iran Deal Is Not Dead Yet, but It’s Getting There” (Foreign Policy) Times of Israel In First, Turkey Included as Threat in IDF’s Annual Intel Assessment Despite officially maintaining diplomatic ties, Israel’s military has added the Republic of Turkey to its list of threats in an annual assessment for the coming year, in light of the country’s growing aggressiveness in the region, The Times of Israel learned Tuesday. This is the first time Israeli Military Intelligence has included Turkey on the list. Relations between Israel and Turkey have been increasingly strained under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who routinely speaks out against the Jewish state and allegedly allows Palestinian terror groups to operate freely in his country. See also, “Rafi Peretz under fire after newest wave of homophobic comments” (JPost) Jerusalem Post In a Boon to Netanyahu, Johnson's Backing of Nuclear Deal Plan British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said in an interview with the BBC on Tuesday that the Iran nuclear deal, signed in 2015 and known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), could be replaced by a new deal. “If we’re going to get rid of it, let’s replace it, and let’s replace it with the Trump deal,” he said. “That would be a great way forward.” “President Trump is a great dealmaker, by his own account,” Johnson said. “Let’s work together to replace the JCPOA and get the Trump deal instead.” Why are these comments significant? Because up until now, the European partners to the deal – Britain, France and Germany – have been hell-bent on preserving it. The US under Trump withdrew from the deal in 2018, and the other two countries involved in the negotiations with Iran over the JCPOA deal – China and Russia – have shown no indication of wanting to change it. 2 Times of Israel Likud Again Pushing to Get Extremists into Knesset on Far-Right Slate Netanyahu’s Likud party is pushing right-wing parties to merge with an extremist faction in a bid to shore up support for his conservative bloc, in a repeat of a move that has drawn vociferous criticism against the premier in the past. For the third election in a row, Likud is urging religious-Zionist parties to ensure that the Kahanist-inspired Otzma Yehudit party is part of their slate for the March 2 race, fearing that votes could be lost to parties that fail to clear the electoral threshold otherwise. “The left has united — they’re not going to lose any votes. Now the right must do everything to prevent wasting votes,” Likud said Tuesday in a statement. The statement was directed at New Right, just hours after the right-wing party led by Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked announced it would run together with the National Union faction. See also, Has Netanyahu outsmarted himself in push for right-wing merger?(Al Monitor) Ha’aretz Knesset Speaker, in the Eye of Netanyahu's Immunity Storm Right-wing faction heads on Tuesday urged Knesset speaker Yuli Edelstein to prevent the Knesset plenum from convening, in an attempt to delay the formation of a parliamentary committee to rule on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s immunity from prosecution. The speaker is the only official authorized to convene a session of the full Knesset during its pre-election recess, which is necessary to approve the composition of the House Committee, the body authorized to discuss granting immunity. The Knesset launched the debate process on Monday, in an attempt to reach a decision before the March 2 election – and both parties are busy addressing the obstacles in the path to a final decision. See also, “Knesset speaker under pressure to block plenum vote to form immunity panel” (TOI) Ynet News Wife of Rabin Assassin Registers Party The wife of Yigal Amir, who assassinated Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in 1995, registered on Tuesday a new political party in an effort to get a retrial for her husband. Upon filing the forms to register the party, called Mishpat Tzedek (Hebrew for fair trial), Larissa Trimbobler-Amir told Central Elections Committee Chairman Neal Hendel and Director General Attorney Orly Ades that her party will act to implement reforms to the justice system and for the release of Yigal Amir from prison. "We demand a retrial for Yigal Amir, we demand retrials for all those people who deserve it, all the innocent people sitting in prison," said Trimbobler-Amir. "We demand a deep reform of the courts and media and only we can do that. The politicians are only worried about their image." Party Registrar Attorney Eyal Globus announced that he approved the establishment of the party. Jerusalem Post Obama’s Middle East Policy Team has a New Home in Warren’s Campaign Much of Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign narrative subtly casts her as the anti-Obama, the potential president who will not broker sweetheart deals for big business. Now a CNN story on Warren’s foreign policy team reveals that her Middle East policy advisers are nearly all Obama-ites. As the story notes, Warren has been uncharacteristically silent about her foreign policy, delivering only one speech and an article about it in the year or so she’s been campaigning. She fumbled at an October debate on a foreign policy question when she readily agreed with another candidate, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, saying “I don’t think we should have troops in the Middle East.” See also, “ Is there a 'Warren Doctrine'? These are the foreign policy veterans who are quietly advising her campaign “ (CNN) 3 Al Monitor- January 10, 2020 Has Netanyahu Outsmarted Himself in Push for Right-Wing Merger? By Shlomi Eldar commentator at Al Monitor • Less than three hours after Labor-Gesher and Meretz announced that they will run on a joint ticket in the March 2 Knesset elections, the co-leaders of the New Right, Defense Minister Naftali Bennett and former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, announced that their party will run independently, rejecting a merger with other parties on the political right. According to a Channel 13 news report on Jan. 13, their decision angered Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has pretty much dictated every move on the right for the past year. • As a reminder, ahead of the April 2019 elections, after Bennett and Shaked broke from HaBayit HaYehudi to form the New Right, Netanyahu urged the new leader of their former party, Rabbi Rafi Peretz, to join with Otzma Yehudit (Jewish Power), the party founded by the fascist disciples of Rabbi Meir Kahane and long ostracized for its racist views. Netanyahu’s goal was to ensure sufficient support for HaBayit HaYehudi to make it into the Knesset. In fact, the prime minister was the one who paved the way for the abomination of Otzma Yehudit's rehabilitation. Denunciations in Israel and elsewhere, even by his friends and allies at the pro-Israel AIPAC lobby in Washington, failed to sway Netanyahu from his efforts. For him, every vote was kosher, and all means were justified in achieving the end of maintaining power.
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