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Sanoma: Vakaampi Ja Suhteellisesti Vahvempi | Inderes Aamukatsaus

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Sanoma: Vakaampi Ja Suhteellisesti Vahvempi | Inderes Aamukatsaus ETUSIVU MARKKINAT SIJOITUSIDEAT INDERES.FI MAKRO YHTIÖT TUNNUSLUVUT Sanoma: Vakaampi ja suhteellisesti vahvempi 09.12.2020 AAMUKATSAUKSESSA TÄNÄÄN • Brexit: Jälleen yhdestoista hetki • Cargotec: Konecranes-fuusion • Qt julkaisi ohjelmistokehitysalustansa uuden tilannepäivityksessä vain vähän konkretiaa version • eQ: Yhtiö on häikäisevä, mutta niin on hintakin • Fellow Finance: Päivitetty strategia valaa uskoa • Osakeriski maistui sijoittajille marraskuussa • Finnair kirjaa eläkesäätiönsä ehtojen tulevaan • Finnairin matkustajaliikenne hidastui muutoksista lisää kertatuottoja Q4:lle marraskuussa, mutta rahti vetää hyvin • Sotelakipaketin käsittely eduskunnassa alkaa • Heeros: Odotukset ovat nousseet korkealle • Stora Enso maksaa osingon toisen erän maanantaina odotustemme mukaisesti joulukuussa • Detection Technologylle myönnetty Korkean ja Uuden Teknologian -sertifikaatti Kiinassa Yhtiöt aamukatsauksessa: Sanoma, eQ, , Heeros, Cargotec, Konecranes, Aktia, EAB Group, Evli Pankki, Taaleri, United Bankers, Finnair, Stora Enso, Qt, Pihlajalinna, Terveystalo, Detection Technology ETUSIVU MARKKINAT SIJOITUSIDEAT INDERES.FI MAKRO YHTIÖT TUNNUSLUVUT Markkinakatsaus Indeksit Kehittyneillä markkinoilla Euroopassa tiistai oli lievä nousupäivä (Eurostoxx +0,2 %) ja pääindeksit sulkivat 0,2- OMXH OMXS 0,5 %:n nousuun myös USA:ssa. Ison-Britannian ja EU:n edustajat kokoontuvat jälleen tänään keskustelemaan kauppasuhteista vuodenvaihteen jälkeen. USA:ssa S&P 500 ja Nasdaq sulkivat jälleen ennätystasoillaan. 0.61 % 0.94 % 10815.5 1925.5 Aasian markkinoilla aloitettiin aamu vaihtelevissa tunnelmissa. Japanin Nikkei oli aamukahdeksalta 1,2 % plussalla ja Kiinan Shanghai Composite 0,5 % miinuksella. Positiiviset rokoteuutiset ja elvytystoiveet antoivat edelleen tukea osakkeille. Valuuttamarkkinoilla euron kurssi dollaria vastaan vahvistui aamulla hieman 1,214 dollariin (+0,2 %). DAX EUROSTOXX 600 Raaka-ainemarkkinalla öljyn hinta oli aamulla laskussa, ja WTI-futuurit liikkuivat 45,45 dollarissa/bbl (-0,3 %). 0.06 % 0.20 % Odotettua suurempi kasvu USA:n raakaöljyvarastoissa painoi öljyn hintaa. 13278.5 393.6 S&P 500 Nikkei 225 0.28 % 1.20 % 3702.3 26786.0 Shanghai EUR/USD -0.51 % 0.24 % 3392.8 1.214 ETUSIVU MARKKINAT SIJOITUSIDEAT INDERES.FI MAKRO YHTIÖT TUNNUSLUVUT Inderes mallisalkku Viimeisimmät raportit inderes.fi- palvelussa 900 Odotukset ovat nousseet korkealle 800 09.12.2020 | Heeros | Vähennä 700 Päivitetty strategia valaa uskoa tulevaan 600 09.12.2020 | Fellow Finance | Lisää 500 Ostotarjouksen hyväksyminen on paras vaihtoehto 400 08.12.2020 | UTG Mixing Group | Vähennä 300 Strateginen ajolinja säilyy suorana 200 08.12.2020 | Relais Group | Lisää 100 Hyvät hyökkäyskuviot ja vakaat puolustuslinjat 0 08.12.2020 | Exel Composites | Lisää Pieni yrityskauppa avittaa kasvua 08.12.2020 | Viafin Service | Vähennä Voimakas aliarvostus on nyt purkautunut Inderes analyysitiimin mallisalkku, joka sijoittaa oikeaa rahaa. Salkun tukijalkana ovat laadukkaat, kestäviä 08.12.2020 | Solteq | Vähennä kilpailuetuja omaavat ja omistaja-arvoa luovat yhtiöt. Poimimme salkkuun myös lyhyen tähtäimen ideoita, kun houkuttelevia vaihtoehtoja on tarjolla. Pikalataus kansainvälistymisakkuihin 07.12.2020 | Siili Solutions | Lisää Kasvuyhtiö alelaarissa 07.12.2020 | OmaSp | Osta 1kk 1 vuosi 3 vuotta Aloituksesta Käynnissä on evoluutio, ei revoluutio 9% 55% 105% 715% 04.12.2020 | Fortum | Osta ETUSIVU MARKKINAT SIJOITUSIDEAT INDERES.FI MAKRO YHTIÖT TUNNUSLUVUT InderesTV Seuraa meitä somessa Facebook > 20t seuraajaa YouTube Twitter Inderes Sijoitusfoorumi Makrotapahtumat, 9.12.2020 03:30 Kiina: Tuottajahinnat YY (%) , marras , ennuste (Reuters) -1,8 /edellinen -2,1 03:30 Kiina: Kuluttajahinnat YY (%) , marras , Remedy CMD 2020 ke 9.12. kello 15:00 alkaen ennuste (Reuters) 0,0 /edellinen 0,5 03:30 Kiina: Kuluttajahinnat MM (%) , marras , ennuste (Reuters) 0 /edellinen 0 09:00 Saksa: Vienti , MM (%) , loka , ennuste (Reuters) - /edellinen 2 09:00 Saksa: Tuonti, MM (%) , loka , ennuste (Reuters) - /edellinen 0 09:00 Saksa: Kauppatase , loka , ennuste (Reuters) - /edellinen 17 800 000 000 17:00 USA: JOLTS avoimet työpaikat , loka , ennuste (Reuters) - /edellinen 6 436 000 Relais Group: Vahvasti kasvava tukkukauppias Sanoma Capital Markets Day 2020 - ti 8.12. kello 17:00 USA: Tukkuvarastot MM (%) , loka , ennuste 14:00 (Reuters) 0,2 /edellinen 0,9 ETUSIVU MARKKINAT SIJOITUSIDEAT INDERES.FI MAKRO YHTIÖT TUNNUSLUVUT Brexit: Jälleen yhdestoista hetki Marianne Palmu Ekonomisti, Aamukatsauksen tuottaja +358 50 339 1521 Ison-Britannian EU-erosta ei ole muodostumassa tuhkimotarinaa. Yhdestoista hetki koittaa jälleen, mutta nämä [email protected] tanssiaiset vain jatkuvat eri tahdeissa kummankin halutessa viedä. Iso-Britannia jätti Euroopan Unionin vuodenvaihteessa, ja samalla alkoi vuoden kestävä siirtymäaika, jolloin maa jatkaa nykysäännöillä ikään kuin olisi EU:n jäsenenä mutta ei osallistu enää EU-päätöksentekoon. Neuvottelut aloitettiin jo maaliskuussa, mutta Britannian ja EU:n neuvottelut kauppasuhteiden solmimisesta ensi vuodesta lähtien ovat edelleen pahasti solmussa. Uutistietojen mukaan neuvottelijoiden välejä hiertävät kilpailuasiat, tulevien riitojen ratkaisu ja kalastukseen liittyvät kysymykset – pitkälti samat teemat, jotka olivat esillä jo lokakuussa. Aika tiimalasissa on kuitenkin käymässä vähiin. Britannian pääministerin Boris Johnsonin ja Euroopan komission puheenjohtaja Ursula von der Leyenin on määrä tavata jälleen tänään ja keskustella tulevista kauppasuhteista. Päätöksiäkin pitäisi saada aikaan mieluummin tällä viikolla, sillä 14. joulukuuta on Euroopan parlamentin viimeinen istunto ennen joulutaukoa. Edeltäneistä Brexit-käänteistä on kuitenkin jo opittu se, että viimeinen kellonlyömä toistuu, joten mahdollista on sekin, että neuvottelut venyvät joulukuun loppuun. ETUSIVU MARKKINAT SIJOITUSIDEAT INDERES.FI MAKRO YHTIÖT TUNNUSLUVUT Kompromissi edelleen mahdollinen Marianne Palmu Ekonomisti, Aamukatsauksen Entäpä lopputulema? Mielestäni todennäköisin vaihtoehto on kokonaisvaltainen kompromissi, jossa kummatkin tuottaja osapuolet voivat julistautua henkisiksi voittajiksi. Poliittista tahtoa siihen tarvitaan, mutta sitä on ennenkin +358 50 339 1521 kaivettu esiin kiven alta viime hetkillä. Toki myös sopimuksettoman Brexitin mahdollisuus on kasvanut [email protected] erimielisyyksien myötä. Kauppasuhteissa se tarkoittaisi Maailman kauppajärjestön sääntöjen soveltamista ja samalla tullien paluuta EU:n ja Ison-Britannian välille. Tämä puolestaan heijastuisi Suomenkin vientiin. Ison- Britannian osuus Suomen viennistä on vuosien mittaan laskenut, ja oli tammi-syyskuussa 3,9 %. Samalla se on Suomen 7. suurin vientimaa. Tilastokeskuksen mukaan Suomi vie Isoon-Britanniaan erityisesti metsäteollisuuden tuotteita, öljyjalosteita ja muita kemianteollisuuden tuotteita. Tullien paluu olisi luonnollisesti kolaus mainituille Britanniaan vientiä harjoittaville toimialoille ja yrityksille Suomessa, ja ne ruuhkauttaisivat aluksi kauppaa EU:n ja Ison-Britannian välillä. Keskuskauppakamarin edustajan totesivat äskettäin HS:n haastattelussa, että Brexit koskettaa suoraan tai epäsuorasti yli 15 000 suomalaisyritystä, joista suurelle osalle käytännön vaikutukset ovat yhä epäselviä. Punta reagoi herkimmin Osakemarkkinalla neuvotteluihin on suhtauduttu Euroopassa maltillisesti, sillä mikäli viime hetken neuvottelut epäonnistuisivat, suurimman kokonaistaloudellisen riskin kantaisi arvioiden mukaan lopulta eroava Britannia. Muutenkin Brexit-solmuihin on osakemarkkinalla vuosien mittaan totuttu. Punnan kurssi on reagoinut herkemmin ja siihen neuvottelujen kuopat ovat tuoneet liikettä. Euro on vahvistunut puntaa vastaan vuoden alusta yli 7 % ja viime aikoina euron kurssikehitys on jälleen ollut nousujohteista (kurssi aamulla 0,906 puntaa). Valuuttaennusteissa euro/punta-kurssiin odotetaan pientä laskupainetta seuraavan 12 kuukauden ajanjaksolla, sillä Reutersin konsensuksen mukaan mediaaniennuste ensi marraskuun lopussa on 0,89 puntaa (vaihteluväli 0,785-0,960). ETUSIVU MARKKINAT SIJOITUSIDEAT INDERES.FI MAKRO YHTIÖT TUNNUSLUVUT Marianne Palmu Ekonomisti, Aamukatsauksen tuottaja +358 50 339 1521 [email protected] ETUSIVU MARKKINAT SIJOITUSIDEAT INDERES.FI MAKRO YHTIÖT TUNNUSLUVUT Marianne Palmu Ekonomisti, Aamukatsauksen tuottaja +358 50 339 1521 [email protected] ETUSIVU MARKKINAT SIJOITUSIDEAT INDERES.FI MAKRO YHTIÖT TUNNUSLUVUT Sanoma: Vakaampi ja suhteellisesti vahvempi Petri Gostowski Analyytikko +358 40 821 5982 Sanoma järjesti eilen pääomamarkkinapäivän, jossa se esitteli liiketoimintojen viime aikaista kehitystä, taustoitti [email protected] tulevia kasvuaihioita ja jonka yhteydessä yhtiö viilasi taloudellisia tavoitteitaan. Sisällytimme viimeisimmän yritysoston ennusteisiimme sen toteutumisajankohdan tarkennettua, mutta kokonaiskuva säilyi näkemyksemme mukaan ennallaan. Tarkistamme tavoitehintamme 13,0 euroon (aik. 12,5 euroa) ja toistamme vähennä- Sanoma | Kurssi: 13.38 suosituksemme, sillä osinkoon nojaava tuotto-odotus ei mielestämme yllä riittävälle tasolle puoltaakseen Vähennä | Tavoitehinta: 13.00 lisäostoja. Arvioimme Media Finlandin olevan pandemian jälkeen suhteellisesti vahvempi Keskeiset huomiomme pääomamarkkinapäivästä Media Finlandin osalta ovat segmentin vahvistunut markkina- asema mainosmyynnissä, vahva digitaalisten liiketoimintojen kasvunäkymä sekä odotetulla polulla edennyt aluemedia-liiketoimintojen integrointi. Vuonna 2020 tammi-syyskuussa Suomen mainosmarkkina on laskenut 21 %, kun taas Sanoman vertailukelpoisen myynnin
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