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Contours of the Religious Voting Cleavage in 21St Century New Brunswick

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Contours of the Religious Voting Cleavage in 21St Century New Brunswick University of Calgary PRISM: University of Calgary's Digital Repository Graduate Studies The Vault: Electronic Theses and Dissertations 2017 Contours of the Religious Voting Cleavage in 21st Century New Brunswick Carleton, Alexander James Richards Carleton, A. J. (2017). Contours of the Religious Voting Cleavage in 21st Century New Brunswick (Unpublished master's thesis). University of Calgary, Calgary, AB. doi:10.11575/PRISM/25444 http://hdl.handle.net/11023/3711 master thesis University of Calgary graduate students retain copyright ownership and moral rights for their thesis. You may use this material in any way that is permitted by the Copyright Act or through licensing that has been assigned to the document. For uses that are not allowable under copyright legislation or licensing, you are required to seek permission. Downloaded from PRISM: https://prism.ucalgary.ca UNIVERSITY OF CALGARY Contours of the Religious Voting Cleavage in 21st Century New Brunswick by Alexander James Richards Carleton A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS GRADUATE PROGRAM IN POLITICAL SCIENCE CALGARY, ALBERTA APRIL, 2017 © Alexander James Richards Carleton 2017 Abstract At the federal level of elections in Canada, the years from 2000-2011 saw a cooling of a longstanding trend: Catholics voting for the Liberals. This constituency has been a staple of their electoral coalition and a large part of their success in the 20th century. An analysis of voting habits in New Brunswick reveals that voting by religion is still a phenomenon in the province, with Catholics holding on to their traditional preference. This remains the case in the province even across a variety of social and demographic variables. ii Acknowledgements The entire faculty and staff of the University of Calgary Political Science department deserve acknowledgement and praise for both their help, and their patience, which allowed this thesis to be finished. Dr. Stewart, my supervisor, was particularly sage in his assessments, and deserves extra acknowledgement. As does Dr. Thomas, who was very helpful with suggestions early on. Judi Powell was also diligent in making sure I properly navigated all my degree and submission requirements. My family has been very understanding and supportive and are worthy of thanks. Carlos Gutierrez and his family were also very kind in letting me stay in Calgary during my defence. Finally, my father, and my friend Monica both provided good critique of various drafts of this thesis. iii Dedication For Tina and Yogi iv Table of Contents Abstract ii Acknowledgements iii Dedication iv Table of Contents v List of Tables viii List of Figures and Illustrations x Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 Goals and Inspiration 1 1.2 Background 4 1.3 Outline 6 Chapter 2: History 2.1 Introduction 10 2.2 Pre-Confederation New Brunswick 10 2.3 Confederation and its Impact 12 2.4 The Politics of Compromise 15 2.5 The Anglophones 16 2.6 The Francophones 18 2.7 The 20th Century 20 2.8 Contemporary Elections 24 2.9 Conclusion 25 v Chapter 3: Provincial Analysis 3.1 Introduction 27 3.2 Clarification of Categories and Terms 27 3.3 Demographics 28 3.4 New Brunswick Provincial Elections and Religion 31 3.5 Provincial Election of 1999 33 3.6 Elections of 2003 and 2006 35 3.7 Election of 2010 38 3.8 Election of 2014 39 3.9 Analysis of Provincial Elections 41 3.10 Conclusion 44 Chapter 4: Federal Analysis 4.1 Introduction 45 4.2 Background Assumptions 45 4.3 New Brunswick Federal Elections and Religion 47 4.4 Federal Election of 2000 49 4.5 Federal Election of 2004 51 4.6 Federal Election of 2006 53 4.7 Federal Election of 2008 55 4.8 Federal Election of 2011 56 4.9 Concluding Analysis of the Year-by-Year Results 58 4.10 Final Thoughts on the Provincial and Federal Data 60 vi Chapter 5: Demographics 5.1 Introduction 62 5.2 Data Analysis 62 5.3 Gender 62 5.4 Age 66 5.5 Income 69 5.6 Education 73 5.7 Conclusions 76 Chapter 6: Attitudes and Behaviours 6.1 Introduction 77 6.2 Measures of Conservatism 77 6.3 Social Conservatism 78 6.4 Economic Conservatism 80 6.5 Attitudes Towards Quebec 82 6.6 Analysis of the Measures and Findings 84 6.7 Media 85 6.8 Religiosity 89 6.9 Conclusion 92 Chapter 7: Conclusions 7.1 Provincial Background Restated 94 7.2 The Future 95 7.3 Data Analysis Conclusions 96 References 101 vii List of Tables Table 3.1 New Brunswick Prospective Provincial Vote by Religion 31 Table 3.2 New Brunswick Aggregate Anglo-Catholic Prospective Provincial Vote 32 Table 3.3 New Brunswick Prospective Provincial Vote of 2000 34 Table 3.4 New Brunswick Prospective Provincial Vote of 2004 and 2006 36 Table 3.5 Combined 2004 and 2006 Prospective Provincial Results 37 Table 3.6 New Brunswick Prospective Provincial Vote of 2011 38 Table 3.7 New Brunswick Prospective Provincial Vote of 2008 39 Table 3.8 Aggregate New Brunswick Prospective Provincial Vote 41 Table 3.9 New Brunswick Catholic Prospective Provincial Vote Difference 42 Table 3.10 New Brunswick Anglo-Catholic Prospective Provincial Vote Difference 43 Table 4.1 New Brunswick Federal Vote by Religion 47 Table 4.2 New Brunswick Aggregate Anglo-Catholic Federal Vote 48 Table 4.3 New Brunswick Federal Vote of 2000 51 Table 4.4 New Brunswick Federal Vote of 2004 51 Table 4.5 New Brunswick Federal Vote of 2006 54 Table 4.6 New Brunswick Federal Vote of 2008 55 Table 4.7 New Brunswick Federal Vote of 2011 57 Table 4.8 New Brunswick Aggregate Federal Vote 58 Table 4.9 New Brunswick Federal Catholic Vote Difference 59 Table 4.10 New Brunswick Federal Anglo-Catholic Vote Difference 59 Table 5.1 New Brunswick Catholic Vote by Gender 63 Table 5.2 New Brunswick Catholic Vote Difference by Gender 64 Table 5.3 New Brunswick Catholic Vote by Gender and Year 65 viii Table 5.4 New Brunswick Catholic Vote by Age 67 Table 5.5 New Brunswick Catholic Vote Difference by Age 68 Table 5.6 New Brunswick Catholic Vote by Age and Year 68 Table 5.7 New Brunswick Catholic Vote by Income 70 Table 5.8 New Brunswick Catholic Vote Difference by Income 71 Table 5.9 New Brunswick Catholic Vote by Income and Year 72 Table 5.10 New Brunswick Catholic Vote by Education 73 Table 5.11 New Brunswick Catholic Vote Difference by Education 74 Table 5.12 New Brunswick Catholic Vote by Education and Year 75 Table 6.1 New Brunswick Social Conservative Measure 78 Table 6.2 New Brunswick Social Conservatism Measure by Year 79 Table 6.3 New Brunswick Economic Conservatism Measure 80 Table 6.4 New Brunswick Economic Conservatism Measure by Year 81 Table 6.5 New Brunswick Quebec Attitudes Measure 82 Table 6.6 New Brunswick Quebec Attitudes Measure by Year 83 Table 6.7 New Brunswick Catholic Vote by Media Exposure 86 Table 6.8 New Brunswick Catholic Vote Difference by Media Exposure 87 Table 6.9 New Brunswick Catholic Vote by Media Exposure and Year 88 Table 6.10 New Brunswick Catholic Vote by Religiosity 90 Table 6.11 New Brunswick Catholic Vote Difference by Religiosity 91 Table 6.12 New Brunswick Catholic Vote by Religiosity and Year 92 ix List of Figures and Illustrations Figure 3.1 French and Catholic Demographics by County 2011 Census 29 Figure 3.2 Provincial Election Results of 1999 33 Figure 3.3 Provincial Election Results of 2003 and 2006 35 Figure 3.4 Provincial Election Results of 2010 38 Figure 3.4 Provincial Election Results of 2014 40 Figure 4.1 French and Catholic Demographics by County 2011 Census 50 Figure 4.2 Federal Election Results of 2000 50 Figure 4.3 Federal Election Results of 2004 52 Figure 4.4 Federal Election Results of 2006 53 Figure 4.5 Federal Election Results of 2008 55 Figure 4.6 Federal Election Results of 2011 56 x Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 Goals and Inspiration This thesis seeks to analyze the Catholic vote cleavage in the context of New Brunswick. To do so it relies upon census data and the Canadian Election Study from the years 2000-2011. The goal is to determine whether or not there were changes in disproportionate Catholic support for the Liberal Party as had occurred elsewhere in the country, and if these change took place along any identifiable variables. In accomplishing this goal, it will take up, in part, some of the work that needed to be done as suggested by André Blais. In June of 2005, Blais addressed the Canadian Political Science Association on the success of the Liberal Party in Canada. He noted that the Liberals’ victories ranks it globally among the most successful parties in liberal democracies, as it had governed 44 of the 60 years from 1945 to 2005 (Blais, 2005). Using the Canadian Election Studies as his starting point, and focusing on the “big picture” as opposed to trying to explain why the Liberals did better or worse in any election, Blais argues that there are two factors that helped the Liberals maintain their dominance. One of those factors is the support of Canadians of non-European origin. Canadians of non-European origin are becoming more important to the Liberals and the overall Canadian election landscape due to their growing numbers (2005). The larger factor in Liberal dominance, and one that has long escaped explanation, was their ability to win the Catholic vote (2005).
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