Military Balance in the Middle East - XIII

CSIS______Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street N.W. Washington, DC 20006 (202) 775-3270 Fax: (202) 466-4740 (For Updates see CSIS.ORG)

The Southern Gulf : Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Yemen

Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, Major Arms by Country and Zone, Conventional Forces, and Qualitative Trends

Anthony H. Cordesman

Senior Fellow for Strategic Assessment

December 28, 1998

Table of Contents SAUDI MILITARY FORCES ...... 4

SAUDI ARABIA - OVERVIEW ...... 5 SAUDI GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, MILITARY EXPENDITURES, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL IMPORTS AND ARMS IMPORT DELIVERIES: 1984-1996...... 6 SAUDI CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, MILITARY EXPENDITURES, TOTAL EXPORTS, AND ARMS IMPORT DELIVERIES: 1984-1995...... 7 SAUDI TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL IMPORTS AND ARMS IMPORT DELIVERIES: 1984-1996 ...... 8 SAUDI MILITARY EFFORTS AS A PERCENT OF GNP, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, IMPORTS AND TOTAL POPULATION: 1984-1996 ...... 9 SHIFT IN SAUDI MILITARY EXPENDITURES AND ARMS DELIVERIES AS A PERCENT OF 1984 TOTAL: 1984-1994.... 10 SAUDI GNP PER CAPITA VERSUS MILITARY EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA...... 11 SAUDI ARABIAN ARMS SALES: 1987-1997...... 12 SAUDI ARABIAN NEW ARMS SALES AND DELIVERIES: 1987-1997 ...... 13 TREND IN DELIVERIES TO SAUDI ARABIA: 1973-1994 ...... 14 SAUDI ARABIAN ARMS DELIVERIES: 1992-1994 ...... 15 NEW SAUDI ARABIAN ARMS SALES BY MAJOR SUPPLIER: 1987-1997...... 16 KEY SAUDI EQUIPMENT DEVELOPMENTS - PART ONE ...... 17 FORCE TRENDS IN SAUDI ARABIA - PART ONE ...... 19 FORCE TRENDS IN SAUDI ARABIA - PART TWO...... 20 SAUDI: MILITARY MANNING: 1979-1999...... 21 SAUDI MAJOR MILITARY EQUIPMENT IN 1999...... 22 Land Forces ...... 22 SAUDI ARABIA: ARMORED WEAPONS STRENGTH: 1979-1999 ...... 23 SAUDI: ARTILLERY WEAPONS STRENGTH: 1985-1999...... 24 SAUDI ARABIA: FIXED WING AND ROTARY WING COMBAT AIR STRENGTH: 1979-1999...... 25 UAE MILITARY FORCES...... 26

UAE - OVERVIEW...... 27 UAE GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, MILITARY EXPENDITURES, TOTAL EXPORTS, AND ARMS IMPORT DELIVERIES: 1983-1996 ...... 28 UAE CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, MILITARY EXPENDITURES, TOTAL EXPORTS, AND ARMS IMPORT DELIVERIES: 1983-1995...... 29 UAE TOTAL EXPORTS, AND ARMS IMPORT DELIVERIES: 1983-1995 ...... 30 UAE MILITARY EFFORTS AS A PERCENT OF GNP, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, IMPORTS AND TOTAL POPULATION: 1984-1996 ...... 31 UAE MILITARY EXPENDITURES AND ARMS TRANSFERS AS A PERCENT OF 1984 TOTAL: 1984-1994...... 32 UAE GNP PER CAPITA VERSUS MILITARY EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA...... 33 UAE ARMS AGREEMENTS AND DELIVERIES BY MAJOR SUPPLIER: 1987-1997 ...... 34 TREND IN DELIVERIES TO UAE: 1973-1994 ...... 35 TREND IN SUPPLIER’S SHARE OF UAE ARMS MARKET BEFORE AND AFTER THE GULF WAR...... 36 KEY UAE EQUIPMENT DEVELOPMENTS - PART ONE ...... 37 FORCE TRENDS IN THE UAE - PART ONE ...... 40 FORCE TRENDS IN THE UAE - PART TWO...... 41 UAE: MILITARY MANNING: 1979-1999 ...... 42 UAE MAJOR MILITARY EQUIPMENT IN 1999 ...... 43 Land Forces ...... 43 UAE: ARMORED WEAPONS STRENGTH: 1979-1999 ...... 44 UAE: ARTILLERY WEAPONS STRENGTH: 1979-1999 ...... 45 UAE: FIXED WING AND ROTARY WING COMBAT AIR STRENGTH: 1979-1999 ...... 46 YEMENI MILITARY FORCES ...... 47

YEMEN GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT, CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, MILITARY EXPENDITURES, TOTAL EXPORTS, AND ARMS IMPORT DELIVERIES: 1986-1996 ...... 48

YEMEN CENTRAL GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, MILITARY EXPENDITURES, TOTAL EXPORTS, AND ARMS IMPORT DELIVERIES: 1986-1995...... 49 YEMEN TOTAL EXPORTS, AND ARMS IMPORT DELIVERIES: 1986-1996...... 50 YEMEN MILITARY EFFORTS AS A PERCENT OF GNP, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, IMPORTS AND TOTAL POPULATION: 1986-1996 ...... 51 YEMEN: GNP PER CAPITA VERSUS MILITARY EXPENDITURES PER CAPITA ...... 52 YEMENI ARMS AGREEMENTS AND DELIVERIES BY MAJOR SUPPLIER: 1987-1997...... 53 TREND IN SUPPLIER’S SHARE OF THE YEMENI ARMS MARKET BEFORE AND AFTER THE GULF WAR...... 54 FORCE TRENDS IN YEMEN – PART ONE...... 55 FORCE TRENDS IN YEMEN - PART TWO...... 56 YEMENI MAJOR MILITARY EQUIPMENT IN 1999...... 57 Land Forces ...... 57

Part One

Saudi Military Forces

Saudi Arabia - Overview · The longer term trends in Saudi per capita military expenditure relative to GDP per capita reflect the increasing strains high population growth place on the Saudi economy at a time of constant or declining real GDP. Military expenditures per capita have declined over time, but reflect a sudden surge to pay for the Gulf War, and have increased as a share of GDP per capita because of population growth and limited economic growth. · Saudi Arabia’s economy reflects the same dip in GDP during much of the 1980s and early to mid-1990s as that of the other oil exporting states. Oil riches recovered in the mid-1990s, but dropped sharply in late, 1997. · Saudi Arabia has sharply cut central government expenditures as a share of total GDP since the mid-1980s -- although this has not prevented sustained budget deficits. · Saudi military expenditures are very high relative to the size of the total Saudi central government budget. No other Southern Gulf state, and few other states world-wide, maintain this scale of military effort. As a result, Saudi military spending does compete directly with civil spending. · Saudi Arabia increased central government expenditures and military spending as a result of the Gulf War, but this increase was far smaller as a percent of total GDP than in the case of Kuwait. · However, Saudi Arabia was able to make major increases in oil export revenues as a result of the Gulf War -- which increased both oil prices and Saudi Arabia’s share of the oil market. The burden of paying for the Gulf War -- while significant -- did not by itself have a critical impact on the Saudi economy. · US estimates placed Saudi defense spending at over $17 billion in 1996. · The IISS estimates that military expenditures were $17.2 billion in 1995, $17.4 billion in 1996, and $18.2 billion in 1997. · Although Saudi Arabia is one of the world’s largest arms importers, its actual annual expenditures are surprisingly constant over time. This seems to reflect a Saudi tendency to place very large orders, and then schedule deliveries and payments over long periods that prevent sudden shifts in spending. · Saudi arms imports have not increased as a result of the Gulf War. In fact, new arms import agreements during 1991-1994 were only about two-thirds of the total during 1987-1990. These orders do, however, reflect a major shift to the US market and a decline in orders from Europe and the PRC. · The most recent data on Saudi arms imports reflect major cuts in the volume of new agreements and deliveries since the surge resulting from the Gulf War. · New arms agreements dropped from $26.7 billion during 1989-1992 to $20.3 billion during 1993- 1996. · New arms deliveries rose from $29.6 billion during 1989-1992 to $29.8 billion during 1993-1996. · Saudi Arabia buys roughly the same amount of arms from the US and the major West European countries, , plus substantial arms from other suppliers. It has, however, concentrated virtually all of its major new agreements on buys from the US, UK, France, Germany, and Italy since 1991. · Saudi Arabia now has a massive backlog of orders and serious training, conversion, O&M, and sustainability problems. Although it still has extremely ambitious future purchase plans, it is temporarily saturated in terms of cash flow, manpower, and absorption capabilities. · A detailed review of Saudi arms buys reveals a serious lack of standardization and over-lapping buy from different suppliers that greatly increase its sustainability and interoperability problems. · These problems have been compounded by over-ambitious Saudi modernization and expansion plans, and an effort to ensure Saudi Arabia buys from all strategically important suppliers. Saudi Arabia needs to concentrate on conversion and sustainment, but further major new buys are likely.

Saudi Gross National Product, Central Government Expenditures, Military Expenditures, Total Exports, Total Imports and Arms Import Deliveries: 1984-1996 (Constant $96 millions)

160000

140000

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

GNP 143200 129000 CGE 97340 108300 Mil Expend 28230 29240 Total Exports 51960 37660 27430 30570 30980 34630 51940 53770 55060 45230 44410 50980 57300 Total Imports 46640 32370 25970 26500 27690 25810 28150 32710 36900 30080 24320 28620 27770 Arms Imports 9827 9731 8832 10410 7880 7442 8303 10010 9088 8535 8128 9168 9800

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

Saudi Central Government Expenditures, Military Expenditures, Total Exports, and Arms Import Deliveries: 1984-1995 (Constant $96 millions)

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

CGE 97340 108300 Mil Expend 28230 29240 Total Exports 51960 37660 27430 30570 30980 34630 51940 53770 55060 45230 44410 50980 57300 Total Imports 46640 32370 25970 26500 27690 25810 28150 32710 36900 30080 24320 28620 27770 Arms Imports 9827 9731 8832 10410 7880 7442 8303 10010 9088 8535 8128 9168 9800

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

Saudi Total Exports, Total Imports and Arms Import Deliveries: 1984-1996 (Constant $96 millions)

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

Total Exports 51960 37660 27430 30570 30980 34630 51940 53770 55060 45230 44410 50980 57300 Total Imports 46640 32370 25970 26500 27690 25810 28150 32710 36900 30080 24320 28620 27770 Arms Imports 9827 9731 8832 10410 7880 7442 8303 10010 9088 8535 8128 9168 9800

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

Saudi Military Efforts as a Percent of GNP, Government Expenditures, Imports and Total Population: 1984-1996

0 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96

Military Spending as a 19.7 22.7 20.9 19.4 15.8 15.9 28.5 27.2 16.7 14.2 13.5 Percent of GNP Military Spending as a 29 27 32 46.3 36.1 38.5 70 72.5 41.5 37 36 Percent of Central Government Expenditures Arms Imports as a 21.2 30.1 34 39.3 28.5 28.8 30.6 24.6 28.4 33.4 32 35.3 Percent of Total Imports Active Military Manpower 6.4 6.1 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.3 11.9 10.3 9.9 9.1 9.3 per 1,000 People

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

Shift in Saudi Military Expenditures and Arms Deliveries as a Percent of 1984 Total: 1984-1994 ($94 Constant Millions)

14 0

12 0

10 0

40 Mi l i t ar y E x pe n d i t ur es

20 Ar ms I m p o r t s

0 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from US Arms Control and Disarmament Agency, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, 1995, GPO, Washington, 1996.

Saudi GNP Per Capita versus Military Expenditures Per Capita (Constant $95)

16000

14000

12000

10000

8000

6000

GNP Per Capita

4000

Milex Per Capita

2000

0 83 84 86 87 88 90 91 92 93 95

GNP Per Capita 14060 12450 7983 7464 7118 8157 8561 8266 7398 6815 Milex Per Capita 3090 2358 1665 1450 1127 1677 2436 2249 1235 919

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

Saudi Arabian Arms Sales: 1987-1997 ($US Current Billions)

20 SAUDI NEW ARMS AGREEMENTS AND ACTUAL DELIVERIES SINCE THE GULF WAR: 1990-1996

New Agreements Total $56.9 Billion 18 Actual Deliveries Total $ 55.5 Billion

New Agreements

Actual Deliveries 2

0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97

New Agreements 18.6 7.8 4.5 9.6 9.5 2.1 1.9 2.9 Actual Deliveries 6.7 7.1 4.5 6.4 5.2 8.3 6.3 11

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Richard F. Grimmett, Conventional Arms Transfers to the Developing Nations, Congressional Research Service, various editions.

Saudi Arabian New Arms Sales and Deliveries: 1987-1997 ($US Current Millions)

50 US Russia China Major West Europe Other Europe All Others

0 Agreements: Agreements: Agreements: Deliveries: Deliveries: Deliveries: . 87-90 91-94 94-97 87-90 91-94 94-97

All Others 0.20 1.8 0.7 0.1 0 Other Europe 2 0.5 1.1 0.09 1.8 4 Major West Europe 25.7 9.5 7 15.1 14.7 18.4 China 3.3 0 3 0.3 0.1 Russia 0.2 0 0.1 0.1 0 US 14.3 20.2 4.2 6.5 10.9 14

Total $45,700 $30,200 $20,300 $26,300 $27,900 $29,800

0 = less than $50 million or nil, and all data rounded to the nearest $100 million. Source: Richard F. Grimmett, Conventional Arms Transfers to the Developing Nations, Congressional Research Service, various editions.

Trend in Deliveries to Saudi Arabia: 1973-1994 (In $US Current Millions)

1973-1978 1978-1982 1982-1986 1987-1991 1992-1994 18000

16000

14000

12000 Total Arms Deliveries

1973-77: $2,068 1978-82: $9,600 10000 1982-96: $16,715 1987-91: $29,740 1992-94: $20,465

8000

6000

4000

2000

0 Other Other German E. Middle US UK France W. Americ Russia China E. Asia Other y Europe East Europe a

1973-1978 968 525 5 230 70 0 0 0 0 0 0 270 1978-1982 3500 1900 550 1900 200 0 0 0 0 0 0 550 1982-1986 6100 1200 90 6800 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2525 1987-1991 5100 16300 525 2400 800 675 390 310 3000 100 0 140 1992-1994 8600 9400 30 525 750 900 0 0 170 10 0 80

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, various editions.

Saudi Arabian Arms Deliveries: 1992-1994 (Deliveries in $US Current Millions)

Russia = 0

E. Europe = 0

China = $170M

Other Asia = $10M

US = $8,600M

UK = $9,400

France = $525M

Germany = $30M

Other W. Europe = $700M ARMS DELIVERIES TO SAUDI ARABIA DURING 1992-1994, FOLLOWING THE Canada = $900M GULF WAR * Deliveries totaled $20.5 billion. * US delivered 42% of total. Middle East = $0M * UK delivered 46%.

Other = $80M

0 20 0 0 40 0 0 60 0 0 80 0 0 10 0 0 0

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, 1995, ACDA/GPO, Washington

New Saudi Arabian Arms Sales by Major Supplier: 1987-1997 (New Agreements in $US Current Millions)

50000

45000

40000

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

10000

5000

0 France, Other Russia China US Germany, All Others Total Europe Italy & UK

1987-1990 200 3300 14300 25700 2000 200 45700 1991-1994 0 0 20200 9500 500 0 30200 1994-1997 0 0 4200 7000 1100 1800 14100

0 = less than $50 million or nil, and all data rounded to the nearest $100 million. Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from Richard F. Grimmett, Conventional Arms Transfers to the Developing Nations, Congressional Research Service, various editions.

Key Saudi Equipment Developments - Part One · Improved oil revenues have reduced, not eliminated deficits, but is still spending roughly $13 billion annually on defense. · Has talked of going from two armored and four mechanized brigades to 7-8 divisions. · During Gulf War bought 315 M-1A2s, 30 M-88A1 tank recovery vehicles, 175 M-998 utility trucks, 224 heavy tactical trucks, 29 heavy equipment transporters, 268 five ton trucks, spares and support equipment, logistics support, ammunition, facilities design and construction, training aids and devices, and US military training services. Now have roughly 200 M-1s in storage awaiting crews. · Has plans to buy 235-350 additional M-1A2s, Challenger 2s, or Le Clercs by 2000, but funding plan unclear. · Bought 400 M-2A2s, 200 M-113 armored personnel carriers, 50 M-548 cargo carriers, 17 M-88A1 recovery vehicles, and 43 M-578 recovery vehicles. · January 1997, signed a contract to convert 235 M113A1s and A2s to A3 standard. 65 vehicles have been delivered by July 1998. Completion expected for next year. Follow-on orders could include all 1,500 M113s. · Has plans to buy 200 more infantry fighting vehicles by 2000, but funding plan unclear. · Talking about replacing 110 M-109A/A2s with M-109A6, VSEL AS90, and Giat GCT-1. Funding plan even more uncertain. · Additional ASTROS II and M-198s on order, better mobile fire-control and ammunition-supply equipment, and new target acquisition radars -- such as the AN/PPS-15A, MSTAR, or Rasit 3190B. · Considered order for 9 Multiple Launch Rocket Systems (MLRS), including vehicle mounted rocket launchers, 2,880 tactical rockets, 50 practice rockets, 9 MV-755A2 command post carriers, training and training equipment, but canceled in 1993. Need to supplement present strength of four 180 mm SS-40s and 127 mm SS-30s. · Army has 12 AH-64 Apache attack helicopters, 155 Hellfire missiles, 24 spare Hellfire launchers, six spare engines and associated equipment. Has discussed possible total of 48 AH-64s. · Army aviation formed in 1986, and now has 15 OH-58D scouts and 70 AB-212s, AB-206s, and KV- 107s in addition to AH-64s. Considering buy of 88 Westland WS-70 Black Hawks or similar lift helicopters. · Building new military city near Jizan, which is on Red Sea coast near border with Yemen. Some cost estimates range up to $8 billion. · Saudi National Guard (SANG) has bought 400 to 450 versions of the Piranha light armored vehicle. · SANG bought 1,117 LAV-25s (light armored vehicles) from General Motors of Canada through the US Army Tank Automotive Command (TACOM) at cost of $3.4 billion. Package included 116 TOW launchers with 2000 missiles, 27 M-198 155 mm howitzers, support systems, training, and facilities. · The SANG is expected to take delivery of the first of 73 120 mm armored mortar systems in 1998.

Key Saudi Equipment Developments - Part Two · Refitting four F-2000 frigates with roughly 50 “item” changes, 40 minor. Are adding NBC protection and improving Otomat missile system to enhance search patterns and add re-attack capability. Not improving Crotale to use latest VT1 rounds, but improving Airsys Castor 2B X-band fire control radar to Castor 2C standard. Will complete during 1997-2001. · Buying two new Lafayette-class F-3000 frigates as part of $3.5 billion November 1994 agreement. To be delivered in 1999 and 2002. · Ordered a third La Fayette class anti-aircraft frigate equipped with the new Aster 15 missile · Four Sandown minelayers entering service, beginning in 1995. · Considered buy of several AEGIS-class warships to give it advanced battle management, Harpoon anti-ship missiles, Tomahawk strike capability, ASW, anti-aircraft, and anti-ship missile defense capabilities. Too expensive. · Refitting two logistic replenishment tankers. · Has considered buying coastal submarines. · 24 F-15S aircraft designed for air combat, and 48 F-15S aircraft dual-capable in both the air defense and strike/attack missions: 24 spare engines, 48 targeting and navigation pods, 900 AGM-65D/G Maverick air-to-surface missiles, 600 CBU-87 bombs, 700 GBU-10/12 bombs, and special mission planning systems. · Buying 1,500 upgraded AIM-9 air-to-air missiles for the F-15S. · Buying 20 more Hawk 65 jets and 20 more Swiss Pilatus PC-9 turboprop trainers. · Examining replacement for roughly 100 F-5s. Possible candidates include F-16C/DBlock 60, and JAS39X Saab Gripen with advanced air-to-air missiles. · Longer term requirements for replacement for 60 F-15s in 2005-2010 time frame. F-22, EF-2000, Rafale possible candidates. · Plans to buy up to 70 C-130J-like transports during next decade, and up to 10 additional airborne tankers to supplement its 8 KC-130Hs. · Has bought 21 Patriot batteries (2 training) with 1,055 missiles. · New Peace Shield system becoming fully operational, and installation completed in November 1995. Has central C4I center, five regional centers, and 17 long-range radars. · Upgrading 17 MIM-23B I-Hawk batteries. · Considering upgrade of 170 Shahine mobile and static light SAMs. Possibly with Crotale NG. · Examining replacement of French AMX-30 SA air defense guns.

Force Trends in Saudi Arabia - Part One

Category/Weapon 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 Manpower Total Active 63,000 67,000 62,500 102,500 161,500 162,500* Regular 47,000 47,000 52,500 67,500 105,500 105,500 National Guard & Other 16,000 20,000 10,000 35,000 57,000 57,000 Reserve - - 15,000 20,000 20,000 20,000 Paramilitary 6,500 6,500 8,500 10,500 15,500 15,500

Army and Revolutionary Manpower 56,000 51,000 45,000 75,000 127,000 127,000 Regular Army Manpower 40,000 31,000 35,000 40,000 70,000 70,000 Reserve - - 10,000 20,000 20,000 20,000

Active Main Battle Tanks 175 380 450 550 910 710-910 Total Main Battle Tanks** 175 380 450 550 910 1,055 AIFV/Recce, Lt. Tanks 60 400 575 740 1,467 1,665 APCs 200 200 1,570 2,380 3,670 3,380

Self Propelled Artillery - - 275 275 200 200 Towed Artillery - - 191 200-270 270 260-338 MRLs - - 0 14 60 60 Mortars - - - 360+ 400+ 510+ SSM Launchers - - - 10 10 10

Light SAM Launchers - - - 500+ 650 650 AA Guns - - 248+ - - -

Air Force Manpower 5,500 14,500 14,000 18,000 18,000 18,000 Air Defense Manpower - - - 4,000 4,000 4,000

Total Combat Aircraft 95 136 205 189 295 432 Bombers 0 0 0 0 0 0 Fighter/Attack 30 65 65 78 112 1608 Fighter/Interceptor 35 17 79 61 122 191 Recce/FGA Recce 0 0 0 10 10 10 AEW C4I/BM 0 0 4 5 5 5 MR/MPA 0 0 0 0 0 0 OCU/COIN/CCT 30 54 57 40 36 21 Other Combat Trainers 23 39 39 64 66 50

Transport Aircraft*** 7 67 59 70 49 72 Tanker Aircraft 0 - - 16 16 15

Total Helicopters 22 38 36 55+ 150 157 Armed Helicopters*** 0 0 0 0 12 12 Other Helicopters*** 22 38 36 55+ 138 145

Major SAM Launchers 37 - - 128 128 128 Light SAM Launchers - - - 141 181-249 181-249 AA Guns - - - 198 234(+150) 270-420

Force Trends in Saudi Arabia - Part Two

Category/Weapon 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 Total Naval Manpower 1,500 1,500 3,500 9,500 13,500 13,500

Major Surface Combatants Missile 0 0 8 8 8 8 Other 0 0 0 0 0 0

Patrol Craft Missile 0 0 9 9 9 9 Other 3 4 4 12 20 21

Submarines 0 0 0 0 0 0

Mine Vessels 0 0 4 5 7 6

Amphibious Ships - 0 (3) 0 0 0 Landing Craft - 6 16 16 8+ 8+

Marines 0 0 - (1,500) (1,800) (3,000)

Naval Guards 0 0 0 0 0 -

Naval Air 0 0 - - - -

Naval Aircraft Fixed Wing Combat 0 0 0 0 0 0 MR/MPA 0 0 0 0 0 0 Armed Helicopters/SAR 0 0 24 24 24 25 Other Helicopters - - - - - 6

Note: Equipment in storage shown as higher figure in range. Air Force totals include all helicopters, and all heavy surface to air missile launchers. * Saudi Totals for 1998 include 60,000 reserves are National Guard Tribal Levies. The total for land forces includes active National Guard equipment. These additions total 262 AIFVs, 1,165 APCs, and 70 towed artillery weapons. ** Total tanks include tanks in storage or conversion. *** Includes navy, army, National Guard, and royal flights, but not paramilitary. Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from interviews, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Military Balance (IISS, London); various data available from Jane’s, Military Technology, World Defense Almanac; and Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance in the Middle East (JCSS, Tel Aviv)

Saudi: Military Manning: 1979-1999

180000 Total Active

Army and National Guard

160000 Army

Air Force & Air Defense

Navy 140000

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from various editions of the IISS, Military Balance, the JCSS, Military Balance in the Middle East, and material provided by US experts.

Saudi Major Military Equipment in 1999

Land Forces

710 Tanks 1055

AIFVs 1655

APCs 3380

SP Arty 200 260 Towed Arty 338

42 MRLs 66

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

Air Forces

Total Combat Aircraft 432

Attack Helicopters 12

0 100 200 300 400 500

Naval Forces

Submarines 0

Major Surface - Missile 8

Major Surface - Other 0

Missile Patrol 9

Other Patrol 21

Mine Warfare 6

Amphibious Ships 0

Landing Craft 8

0 5 10 15 20 25

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from data provided by US experts, and the IISS, Military Balance

Saudi Arabia: Armored Weapons Strength: 1979-1999

7000

6000

5000

4000

APCS

3000

2000

AFVs

1000

Tanks

0 79 80 81 83 84 85 86 87 88 90 91 92 93 94 95 97 98 99

APCS 200 200 450 640 680 720 760 960 960 1650 2180 2200 2700 3300 3567 2580 2580 2580 AFVs 50 150 180 200 200 550 550 550 845 940 1005 1105 1169 1398 1655 1655 1655 Tanks 350 380 420 450 450 450 450 550 550 550 700 700 724 867 900 1055 1055 1055

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from various editions of the IISS, Military Balance, the JCSS, Military Balance in the Middle East, and material provided by US experts.

Saudi: Artillery Weapons Strength: 1985-1999

600

500

MRLs

400

300

200

Towed

100

0 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

MRLs 6 6 14 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 SP 275 275 275 275 275 275 275 170 170 170 200 200 200 200 200 Towed 18 34 106 150 168 200 224 260 260 230 238 238 260 260 260

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from various editions of the IISS, Military Balance, the JCSS, Military Balance in the Middle East, and material provided by US experts.

Saudi Arabia: Fixed Wing and Rotary Wing Combat Air Strength: 1979- 1999

500

450 Fighter/Attack

400 Armed Helicopter

350

300

250

200

150

100

0 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

Fighter/Attack 178 136 139 128 170 203 205 216 226 182 189 253 293 296 292 295 295 295 358 432 Armed Helicopter 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 12 12 12 12

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from various editions of the IISS, Military Balance, the JCSS, Military Balance in the Middle East, and material provided by US experts.

Part Two

UAE Military Forces

UAE - Overview · The UAE has shown little real economic growth over the last decade. It has, however, kept central government expenditures a relatively low share of the total GDP, and neither military spending nor arms imports have place a major burden on the economy. · 1996 defense expenditures rose to $2.1 billion from $2 billion in 1995. · Wealth does not mean military effectiveness. A detailed review of UAE arms buys reveals deep divisions between the Emirates that make up the UAE, a serious lack of standardization and over-lapping buys from different suppliers that greatly increase its sustainability and interoperability problems, and an acute tendency to make “glitter factor” one of kind buys. There is little evidence of any effort to achieve standardization with other GCC states or the US, or to support weapons buys with the

· The trends in GDP per capita income in the UAE reflect the increasing impact of high population growth at a time of constant or declining real GDP. However, the UAE’s per capita GDP still remains high for a developing country.

· As is the case in Saudi Arabia, the trends in GDP per capita in the UAE reflect the increasing impact of high population growth on GDP per capita at a time of constant or declining total real GDP. In the case of the UAE, however, military expenditures per capita have remained relatively low, and are only a small fraction of GDP per capita.

· The UAE made a significant increase in military spending for the Gulf War, although this surge was much lower than in Kuwait and significantly lower than in Saudi Arabia.

· Between 1993 and 1996 defense accounted for 48% of federal government spending · US estimates indicate that 1996 defense expenditures rose to $2.1 billion from $2 billion in 1995. · The IISS estimates that military expenditures were $2.0 billion in 1995, $2.1 billion in 1996, and $2.1 billion in 1997. · New UAE arms orders during 1991-1994 reflected a nearly five-fold increase over orders during 1987- 1990. The UAE and Qatar have made the largest increases in arms imports as a result of the Gulf War of any Gulf states, and this will inevitably have some impact on the burden arms import places on their economies. At the same time, the initial level of UAE orders was so low that a carefully phased pattern of deliveries and payments should make such orders comparatively easy to afford.

· The UAE buys most of its arms from the major West European countries, although it buys substantial arms from other suppliers. Most of its major new agreements following the Gulf War came from the UK, France, Germany, and Italy ($3.9 billion) and Russia ($1.3 billion).

· The most recent data on UAE arms imports reflect major cuts in the volume of new agreements and deliveries since the Gulf War.

· New arms agreements rose from $2.0 billion during 1989-1992 to $5.2 billion during 1993-1996, most from major West European countries. · New arms deliveries dropped from $2.9 billion during 1989-1992 to $2.3billion during 1993-1996, because of delivery backlogs. · The end result is that UAE has a serious backlog of orders and conversion problems, but still has ambitious future purchase plans. It does not to modernize its fighter force, but will then approach saturation in terms of cash flow, manpower, and absorption capabilities.

· advanced C4I/BM capabilities the UAE needs for air defense and maritime surveillance.

UAE Gross National Product, Central Government Expenditures, Military Expenditures, Total Exports, and Arms Import Deliveries: 1983- 1996 (Constant $96 millions)

50,000

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

GNP 20,000

CGE

15,000 Mil Expend

Total Exports 10,000

Arms Imports

5,000

0 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

GNP 43,012 41980 40120 CGE 6423 5100 6098 Mil Expend 3050 2937 2712 Total Exports 21130 21230 20850 21520 18650 17720 21460 27530 27490 27110 25250 26360 28120 31300 Arms Imports 67 294 333 217 264 241 1190 1871 529 526 613 547 968 775

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

UAE Central Government Expenditures, Military Expenditures, Total Exports, and Arms Import Deliveries: 1983-1995 (Constant $96 millions)

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000 CGE

Mil Expend 10000

Total Exports

Arms Imports 5000

0 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

CGE 6423 5100 6098 Mil Expend 3050 2937 2712 Total Exports 21130 21230 20850 21520 18650 17720 21460 27530 27490 27110 25250 26360 28120 31300 Arms Imports 67 294 333 217 264 241 1190 1871 529 526 613 547 968 775

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

UAE Total Exports, and Arms Import Deliveries: 1983-1995 (Constant $96 millions)

35000

30000

25000

20000

15000

Total Imports

10000 Total Exports

Arms Imports

5000

0 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

Total Imports 9106 8726 9531 10830 12210 13100 15460 19060 20830 21910 21380 22640 Total Exports 21130 21230 20850 21520 18650 17720 21460 27530 27490 27110 25250 26360 28120 31300 Arms Imports 67 294 333 217 264 241 1190 1871 529 526 613 547 968 775

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

UAE Military Efforts as a Percent of GNP, Government Expenditures, Imports and Total Population: 1984-1996

140 Military Spending as a Percent of GNP

120 Military Spending as a Percent of Central Government Expenditures

Arms Imports as a 100 Percent of Total Imports

Active Military 80 Manpower per 1,000 People

0 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

UAE Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers as a Percent of 1984 Total: 1984-1994 (Measured in $94 Constant Millions)

60 0

Mi l i t ar y E x pe n d i t ur es

50 0

Ar ms I m p o r t s

40 0

30 0

20 0

10 0

0 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, 1996, ACDA/GPO, Washington, 1997.

UAE GNP Per Capita versus Military Expenditures Per Capita (Constant $95)

30 0 0 0

25 0 0 0

20 0 0 0

15 0 0 0

GN P P e r C a p i t a 10 0 0 0

Mi l ex P e r C a p i t a 50 0 0

0 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

UAE Arms Agreements and Deliveries by Major Supplier: 1987-1997 ($Current Millions)

US Russia China Major West Europe Other Europe All Others 6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0 Agreements: Agreements: Agreements: Deliveries: Deliveries: Deliveries: . 87-90 91-94 94-97 87-90 91-94 94-97

All Others 400 100 200 100 200 300 Other Europe 100 500 0 200 Major West Europe 300 3600 3700 2100 200 1000 China 0 Russia 400 400 300 300 US 300 800 300 300 600 600

Total 1,000 5,000 5,100 2,500 1,300 2,400

Includes Gulf states, Arab-Israeli states, North Africa, and Yemen 0 = less than $50 million or nil, and all data rounded to the nearest $100 million. Source: Richard F. Grimmett, Conventional Arms Transfers to the Developing Nations, Congressional Research Service, various editions.

Trend in Deliveries to UAE: 1973-1994 (In $US Current Millions)

1973-1977 1978-1982 1982-1986 1987-1991 1992-1994 1600

1400

1200

1000 Total Arms Deliveries

1973-77: $284 800 1978-82: $625 1982-86: $380 1987-91: $2,175 1992-94: $995 600

400

200

0 Other Other Germa E. E. Middle US UK France W. Ameri Russia China Other ny Europe Asia East Europe ca

1973-1977 4 30 0 220 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 1978-1982 20 60 110 380 30 0 0 0 0 0 0 20 1982-1986 90 210 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 80 1987-1991 450 5 90 1400 60 0 20 0 20 90 20 20 1992-1994 360 0 0 110 10 0 260 30 0 30 5 190

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, various editions.

Trend in Supplier’s Share of UAE Arms Market Before and After the Gulf War (New Arms Sales Agreements in $US Current Millions)

1987-1990 1991-1994 1994-1997 4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0 Major W. US Russia China Other Europe Other Europe

1987-1990 300 0 0 300 0 400 1991-1994 800 400 0 3600 100 100 1994-1997 300 400 0 3700 500 200

Key UAE Equipment Developments - Part One

· Plans to spend up to $7 billion on arms acquisitions by the year 2000. · Examining the option of joining Saudi Arabia in accepting a West German proposal to up-engine the AMX-30, and install a new fire control system, and make other improvements · On February 21, 1993, announced would purchase 390 “tropicalized” Le Clerc tanks -- and 46 recovery vehicles and logistic support. Le Clercs will have advanced thermal sights. Training for conversion to the Le Clerc began in January 1995, and deliveries of tanks and ammunition will continue through 1999. Package will include Giat squadron-level command systems with regimental, command systems under development, and digitally sorted mapping systems within the tank.i · In June 1998, 300+ vehicles have been completed so far. (JDW 3 June 1998) no delivery date mentioned · Dubai considering the purchase of 72-100 additional tanks for its forces to replace its 36 aging OF-40s, and expand its forces from one armored battalion to three -- creating an armored brigade. It is also considering the

· South African LIW 155 mm G6(6 x 6) 155 mm/45 caliber self propelled gun or two GKN Defense Desert Warrior or two Russian BMP-3 infantry fighting vehicles. In May 1992, Abu Dhabi ordered 240-250 Russian BMP-3 mechanized infantry combat vehicles, with an

· · Savunma Sanayii. · Abu Dhabi ordered 78 155-mm self-propelled G-6 gun systems from Denel of South Africa in 1990. Has now taken full delivery. The UAE has acquired 18 LAU-97 70 mm and 24-40 FIROS-25 122 mm multiple rocket launchers. UAE has purchased 85-87 surplus M-109A3 self-propelled 155 mm howitzers from the Netherlands, which will

kilometers with an assisted range round · Examining possible purchases of 120 mm towed rifled mortars from France, French self-propelled or towed 155 mm howitzers, and Russian BM-9A52 Smerch 300 mm multiple rocket launch systems Abu Dhabi has ordered the advanced twin launcher version of the French Mistral air defense systems mounted

also needs longer range systems, and is currently studying possible purchases of systems like the Crotale

Key UAE Equipment Developments - Part Two

· Planning the construction of two new air bases. · Has considered purchase of up to 70-80 F-16Us, Mirage-2000Cs, Mirage 2000-5s, Rafales, MiG-29s, Su- 25TKs, Su-27Bs, Su-30MK5s, or Su-35s Seeks aircraft tailored to improve BVR combat capability, as well as attack capability. · UAE announced in May 1998 that it is buying 80 of Lockheed Martin’s F-16 Block 60 at cost of $6.7. As late as December the deal has not been signed because of technical obstacles involving the transfer of software source codes. · Has announced the purchase of 30 Mirage 2000-5 fighters from France’s Dassault over the next three years and also signed for the upgrading of its existing force of 33 Mirage 2000 SAD-8s to 2000 SAD-9 standard, shifting from a primarily air defense configuration to a multi-role configuration. · Procured a family of precision guided munitions, the most sophisticated of which have been integrated onto the UAE's fleet of 22 Dassault Mirage 2000 strike aircraft. · Reports say that the Mirage deal includes missiles: MICA air-to-air missiles, Hakeem air-to-surface missiles, and the Black Shahine long-range cruise missiles (air-to-ground missiles). Black Shahine deal approved by UK, but the US has problems with this deal. · Reports say that the F-16 deal includes 491 AIM-120B Advanced Medium-Range Air-to-Air Missiles, 1,163 AGM-65D/G Maverick air-to-air missiles, 267 AIM-9m Sidewinder air-to-air missiles, 52 AGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missiles, 163 AGM-88 High Speed Anti-Radiation Missiles (HARMs), and 3,500 Mk82/84 general purpose bombs · UAE has selected the CN-235-220 Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA) manufactured by IPTN of Indonesia. Four aircraft have been purchased. Will carry out surveillance in UAE waters. · Considering the purchase of up to 40 more Hawk 100 trainers, including 40 for Dubai. May buy 12-18 Hawk 100s in 1998. · Has 20 AH-63 Apache attack helicopters, which it purchased with 4,000 Hydra rockets and 360 Hellfire missiles · France's Eurocopter clinched a $26 million order to supply two Panther and five Gazelle helicopters. · Some reports indicate that the UAE has 30 A-129 Mangustas and Lynx helicopters on order. Other reports indicate that the UAE is considering plans to acquire up to 40 Augusta AB-412HP Griffins, 10 IAR 330-L Pumas, and/or a significant number of AS-532 Cougar or Westland WS-70 Black Hawk helicopters. The UAE also seems to be considering purchase of more C-130s, or CASA/IPTN CN-235 aircraft · Evaluating the purchase of 10 Patriot missile launchers or three batteries of Russian SV-300 (SA-10/12) missiles.

· Purchased a far more sophisticated C4I/BM system from Westinghouse. It purchased this system in February, 1993, and it will include radars, computers, communications systems, and software -- including radars mounted on tethered balloons to provide some of the range and look-down capabilities of an AWACS. The UAE is also examining the possible purchase of Lockheed Martin FPS-117(E)1, Marconi Martello 743-D, Westinghouse W- 2100, Thomson-CSF TRS 22-XX, and Alenia RAT-31SL long range surveillance radars.

Key UAE Equipment Developments - Part Three

· Planning the construction of at least two naval bases. · Issued a statement of requirements in mid-1993 for four to eight frigates of about 2,500 tons, equipped with a helicopter with dipping sonar, surface-to-surface missile, surface-to-air missile, and ASW capability. · In April, 1996 announced was taking over two Dutch Kortenaer- class S frigates as part of $350 million contract. The Piet Heyn and Abraham Crijnssen were commissioned in 1981 and 1983, and will provide an interim bridge to acquiring advanced frigates. · The Dutch will train two 140 man crews, and add new Goalkeeper CIWS and 10 Scout low probability of intercept radars. Will construct Goalkeeper maintenance facility and NBC defense school in Abu Dhabi, and deliver two tugs. · The UAE is also examining the purchase of ASW systems to refit its existing ships · Considering a purchase of UK-made Piranha class mini-submarines. · Has a LEWA-1 program for an ocean capable patrol boat and LEWA-2 for a 90 meter corvette and LEWA-3 for a smaller coastal patrol craft. · Has accepted bids for up to six ocean-going fast patrol boats. · Vosper Thorneycroft is bidding for the six LEWA, ocean capable fast patrol boats, up to six corvettes and the DAS minehunter (Gulf News 16 March 1998) · Considering the purchase of mine warfare vessels like the Eridan and Sandown class vessels. Also considering purchase of rapid interception craft. Accepting proposals for up to six minehunters and sweepers. · Asked to buy 24 Harpoon anti-ship missiles and 72 Sea Sparrow anti-aircraft missiles from US in 1997. · Obtained thirty million dollars worth of naval torpedoes from France's Eurotorp. · Seeking 100-200 fast interceptor craft of between 15-20 meters in length. · Has actively investigated ordering C-130s equipped for electronic warfare, ordering E-2C Hawkeyes for the AWACS and maritime surveillance role, and ordering two BN-Defender AEW aircraft. · UAE has selected the CN-235-220 Maritime Patrol Aircraft (MPA) manufactured by IPTN of Indonesia. Four aircraft have been purchased. · Bought seven new AS-565SA Panthers and will retrofit five AS-552 Cougar helicopters to upgrade its naval air forces with ASW and improved anti-surface capability. Panthers will be delivered in mid-1998, and will have AS15TT anti-ship). The Cougars will have AM39 Exocet missiles · France's Eurocopter clinched a $26 million order to supply two Panther and five Gazelle helicopters.

Force Trends in the UAE - Part One

Category/Weapon 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 Manpower Total Active - 25,150 43,000 44,000 70,000 64,500 Regular - 25,150 43,000 44,000 70,000 64,500 National Guard & Other - 0 0 0 0 0 Reserve - 0 0 0 0 0 Paramilitary - - - - 2,700 2,700

Army and Revolutionary Manpower - 23,500 40,000 40,000 65,000 59,000 Regular Army Manpower - 23,500 40,000 40,000 65,000 59,000 Reserve - - - - 0

Active Main Battle Tanks - 6 136 131 133 231 Total Main Battle Tanks* - 0 136 131 133 231 AIFV/Recce, Lt. Tanks - 6 173 196 515 558-578 APCs - 150 360 510 380 570

Self Propelled Artillery - 10 12 20 90 175 Towed Artillery - 22 50 77 82 46 MRLs - 0 0 58 48 42-66 Mortars - - - 101 101 135 SSM Launchers - - - - 6 6

Light SAM Launchers - - - - 36 100 AA Guns - - - 60 62 62

Air Force Manpower - 750 1,500 2,500 3,500 4,000 Air Defense Manpower - 0 0 0 0 0

Total Combat Aircraft - 52 42 100 97 99 Bombers - 0 0 0 0 0 Fighter/Attack - 9 3 29 41 43 Fighter/Interceptor - 32 29 34 22 22 Recce/FGA Recce - 0 0 11 8 8 AEW C4I/BM - 0 0 0 0 0 MR/MPA** - 0 0 0 0 0 OCU/COIN/CCT - 11 10 26 15 26 Other Combat Trainers - 0 5 6 35 -

Transport Aircraft**** - 16 26 8? 20 22 Tanker Aircraft - 0 0 0 0 0

Total Helicopters - 29 47 55 84 97 Armed Helicopters**** - - 7 19 42 49 Other Helicopters**** - 29 40 36 42 47

Major SAM Launchers - - (?) (30) 30 36 Light SAM Launchers - - - 24 36 31 AA Guns ------

Force Trends in the UAE - Part Two

Category/Weapon 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999

Total Naval Manpower - 900 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500

Major Surface Combatants Missile - 0 0 2 3 4 Other - 0 0 0 0 0

Patrol Craft Missile - 0 6 6 8 8 Other - 12 9 9 9 9

Submarines - 0 0 0 0 0

Mine Vessels - 0 0 0 0 0

Amphibious Ships - 0 0 0 0 0 Landing Craft - 0 - 2 4 5

Marines - 0 0 0 0 0

Naval Guards - 0 0 0 0 0

Naval Air - 0 0 0 0 0

Naval Aircraft Fixed Wing Combat - 0 0 0 0 0 MR/MPA - 0 0 0 0 0 Armed Helicopters/SAR - 0 0 0 4 (5) SAR Helicopters - 0 0 0 0 (6) Other Helicopters ------

Note: Equipment in storage shown as higher figure in range. Air Force totals include all helicopters, and all heavy surface to air missile launchers. * Iranian total includes roughly 100,000 Revolutionary Guard actives in land forces and 20,000 in naval forces. ** Saudi Totals include 60,000 reserves are National Guard Tribal Levies. The total for land forces includes active National Guard equipment. These additions total 262 AIFVs, 1,165 APCs, and 70 towed artillery weapons. *** Total tanks include tanks in storage or conversion. **** Includes navy, army, National Guard, and royal flights, but not paramilitary. Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from interviews, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Military Balance (IISS, London); various data available from Jane’s, Military Technology, World Defense Almanac; and Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance in the Middle East (JCSS, Tel Aviv)

UAE: Military Manning: 1979-1999

80000

70000

60000

50000

40000

30000 Total

Army

20000 Air Force

Navy

10000

0 79 80 82 83 85 86 87 89 90 92 93 94 96 97 99

Total 25150 25150 48500 49000 43000 43000 43000 43000 44000 54500 57500 61500 70000 64500 66300 Army 23500 23500 46000 46000 40000 40000 40000 40000 40000 50000 53000 57000 65000 59000 61000 Air Force 750 750 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 2500 2500 2500 3500 4000 4000 Navy 900 900 1000 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 1500 2000 2000 2000 1500 1500 1500

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from various editions of the IISS, Military Balance, the JCSS, Military Balance in the Middle East, and material provided by US experts.

UAE Major Military Equipment in 1999

Land Forces

Tanks 231 558 AIFVs 578

APCs 570

SP Arty 175

Towed Arty 46 42 MRLs 66

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700

Air Forces

Total Combat Aircraft 99

Attack Helicopters 49

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Naval Forces

Submarines 0

Major Surface - Missile 4

Major Surface - Other 0

Missile Patrol 8

Other Patrol 9

Mine Warfare 0

Amphibious Ships 3

Landing Craft 5

0 2 4 6 8 10

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from data provided by US experts, and the IISS, Military Balance

UAE: Armored Weapons Strength: 1979-1999

1600

1400

1200

1000

800

600 APCS

400

AFVs 200

Tanks

0 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

APCS 300 300 360 396 396 428 428 510 510 390 350 350 380 380 570 570 570 AFVs 90 90 150 150 150 180 120 200 166 196 196 281 331 491 515 515 558 558 578 Tanks 75 118 118 118 136 136 136 136 131 131 131 131 125 125 133 133 231 231 231

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from various editions of the IISS, Military Balance, the JCSS, Military Balance in the Middle East, and material provided by US experts.

UAE: Artillery Weapons Strength: 1979-1999

350

300

MRLs

250

200

150 SP

100

50 Towed

0 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99

MRLs 58 58 58 40 40 40 48 48 42 66 66 SP 20 20 20 20 64 88 88 90 90 175 175 175 Towed 68 70 77 77 97 108 108 82 82 82 46 46

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from various editions of the IISS, Military Balance, the JCSS, Military Balance in the Middle East, and material provided by US experts.

UAE: Fixed Wing and Rotary Wing Combat Air Strength: 1979-1999

120

Fighter/Attack

100 Armed Helicopter

0 79 80 81 82 83 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 96 97 98 99

Fighter/Attack 52 52 51 52 43 42 42 43 44 61 91 100 105 79 97 97 108 108 99 Armed Helicopter 7 7 7 7 7 25 19 19 19 19 19 39 42 42 42 49

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from various editions of the IISS, Military Balance, the JCSS, Military Balance in the Middle East, and material provided by US experts.

Yemeni Military Forces

Yemen Gross National Product, Central Government Expenditures, Military Expenditures, Total Exports, and Arms Import Deliveries: 1986- 1996 (Constant $96 millions)

1400

1200

1000

GNP

CGE

800 Mil Expend

Total Exports

600 Arms Imports

400

200

0 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

GNP CGE Mil Expend Total Exports 405 134 843 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Arms Imports 543 1053 1150 573 486 45 5 21 261 143 80

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

Yemen Central Government Expenditures, Military Expenditures, Total Exports, and Arms Import Deliveries: 1986-1995 (Constant $96 millions)

1400

1200

1000

800

600 CGE

Mil Expend 400

Total Exports

Arms Imports 200

0 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

CGE Mil Expend Total Exports 405 134 843 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Arms Imports 543 1053 1150 573 486 45 5 21 261 143 80

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

Yemen Total Exports, and Arms Import Deliveries: 1986-1996 (Constant $96 millions)

3000

2500

2000

1500

Total Exports

1000

Total Imports

Arms Imports 500

0 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

Total Exports 405 134 843 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Total Imports 2221 1813 2519 1586 1824 2134 2548 2300 1876 NA NA Arms Imports 543 1053 1150 573 486 45 5 21 261 143 80

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

Yemen Military Efforts as a Percent of GNP, Government Expenditures, Imports and Total Population: 1986-1996

Military Spending as a Percent of GNP

Military Spending as a Percent of Central Government Expenditures

Arms Imports as a Percent of Total Imports

Active Military Manpower per 1,000 People 20

0 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

Military Spending as a Percent of GNP Military Spending as a Percent of Central Government Expenditures Arms Imports as a 25 56.6 37.9 36.2 27.8 2.1 0.2 0.9 13.9 0.3 0.3 Percent of Total Imports Active Military Manpower per 1,000 People

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

Yemen: GNP Per Capita versus Military Expenditures Per Capita (Constant $US 96)

1.2

0.8

0.6

GNP Per Capita 0.4

Milex Per Capita 0.2

0 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

GNP Per Capita Milex Per Capita

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from ACDA, World Military Expenditures and Arms Transfers, ACDA/GPO, Washington, Tables I & II, various editions.

Yemeni Arms Agreements and Deliveries by Major Supplier: 1987-1997 ($US Current Millions)

US Russia China Major West Europe Other Europe All Others 3000

2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0 Agreements: Agreements: Agreements: Deliveries: Deliveries: Deliveries: . 87-90 91-94 94-97 87-90 91-94 94-97

All Others 100 100 300 0 100 200 Other Europe 100 1000 100 0 100 100 Major West Europe 0 0 200 0 0 0 China 0 100 100 0 100 200 Russia 100 0 0 2800 0 0 US 0 0 0 0 0 0

Total 300 1,200 700 2,800 300 500

Trend in Supplier’s Share of the Yemeni Arms Market Before and After the Gulf War (New Arms Sales Agreements in $US Current Millions)

1987-1990 1991-1994 1994-1997 1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0 Major W. US Russia China Other Europe Other Europe

1987-1990 0 100 0 0 100 100 1991-1994 0 0 100 0 1000 100 1994-1997 0 0 100 200 100 300

Force Trends in Yemen – Part One

(The Yemen Arab Republic and People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen were unified on May 22, 1990) Category/Weapon 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998 1999 Manpower Total Active - - - 65,000 39,500 66,300 66,300 Regular - - - 65,000 39,500 66,300 66,300 National Guard & Other - - - 0 0 0 0 Reserve - - - 40,000 40,000 40,000 40,000 Paramilitary - - - 40,000 30,000 80,000 80,000

Army and Revolutionary Manpower - - - 60,000 37,000 61,000 61,000 Regular Army Manpower - - - 60,000 37,000 61,000 61,000 Reserve - - - - 40,000 40,000 40,000

Active Main Battle Tanks - - - 1,275 1,125 1,125 1,030 Total Main Battle Tanks* - - - 1,275 1,125 1,125 1,320 AIFV/Recce, Lt. Tanks - - - 635 580 620 650 APCs - - - 670 560 560 540 Self Propelled Artillery - - - 90 30 36 36 Towed Artillery - - - 547 483 512-548 452 MRLs - - - 405 220 220 220 Mortars - - - 460? 800 500 600 SSM Launchers - - - 35 30 18 30

Light SAM Launchers - - - - 700 700 700 AA Guns - - - 592 372 362 362

Air Force Manpower - - - 2,000 1,000 3,500 3,500 Air Defense Manpower - - - 0 0 0 0

Total Combat Aircraft - - - 101 69 69 49-89 Bombers - - - 0 0 0 0 Fighter/Attack - - - 48 27 27 27 Fighter/Interceptor - - - 47 30 28 16 Recce/FGA Recce - - - 0 0 0 0 AEW C4I/BM - - - 0 0 0 0 MR/MPA** - - - 0 0 0 0 OCU/COIN/CCT - - - 6 0 0 0 Other Combat Trainers - - - - 12 6 0

Transport Aircraft** - - - 28 19 20 16 Tanker Aircraft - - - 0 0 0 0

Total Helicopters - - - 67 29 22 25 Armed Helicopters** - - - 20 8 6 8 Other Helicopters** - - - 47 21 16 17

Major SAM Launchers - - - 87 87 87 87 Light SAM Launchers - - - - - 200 200 AA Guns ------

Force Trends in Yemen - Part Two

Category/Weapon 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1998 1999

Total Naval Manpower - - - 3,000 1,500 1,800 1,800

Major Surface Combatants Missile - - - 2 0 0 0 Other - - - 0 0 0 0

Patrol Craft Missile - - - 6 7 7 7 Other - - - 19 3 7 8

Submarines - - - 0 0 0 0

Mine Vessels - - - 6 3 5

Amphibious Ships - - - 2-3 2 2 3 Landing Craft - - - 2 2 1 -

Marines 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Naval Guards 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Naval Air 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Naval Aircraft Fixed Wing Combat 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 MR/MPA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Armed Helicopters/SAR 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Other Helicopters ------

Note: Equipment in storage shown as higher figure in range. Air Force totals include all helicopters, and all heavy surface to air missile launchers. * Total tanks include tanks in storage or conversion. ** Includes navy, army, National Guard, and royal flights, but not paramilitary. Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from interviews, International Institute for Strategic Studies, Military Balance (IISS, London); various data available from Jane’s, Military Technology, World Defense Almanac; and Jaffee Center for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance in the Middle East (JCSS, Tel Aviv)

Yemeni Major Military Equipment in 1999

Land Forces

Tanks 1320

AIFVs 650

APCs 540

SP Arty 30

Towed Arty 452

MRLs 220

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400

Air Forces

49 Total Combat Aircraft 89

Attack Helicopters 6

0 20 40 60 80 100

Naval Forces

Submarines 0

Major Surface - Missile 0

Major Surface - Other 0

Missile Patrol 7

Other Patrol 8

Mine Warfare 6

Amphibious Ships 3

Landing Craft 4

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Source: Adapted by Anthony H. Cordesman from data provided by US experts, and the IISS, Military Balance

i Defense News, April 22, 1991, p. 1; September 16, 1991, p. 1; December 9, 1991, p. 1, November 16, 1992, p. 36, April 12, 1993, July 4, 1994; Jane’s Defense Weekly, August 7, 1993, p. 28, March 18, 1995, p. 49; Washington Times, February 15, 1993, p. A-9; Armed Forces Journal, June, 1993, p. 50; Washington Post, February 15, 1993, p. A-3; Reuters, February 14, 1993; Financial Times, February 15, 1993.