Theories, Clues but Few Facts in Serbia Police Chiefs Sackings Case
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Pullen Milosevic loyalists threaten revolt over the prospect. party over which way to turn. “The situation in the party seems extremely complicated, as we try to convince the few remaining lag- gards that we need to move out of Milosevic’s shadow,” one Socialist Party official complained. “Dacic will eventually side with Many of us who have experi- Tadic in a bid to guide his party into enced numerous Serbian elections the European mainstream, but much rate ourselves as pundits when it of the membership and many offi- comes to predicting election re- cials may oppose that move.” sults and post-election moves. Nikolic agreed: “The question is We feel in-the-know because will the party split or will the ‘old- our experience of elections in Ser- timers’ back down,” he noted. bia has shown us that (a.) no single Fearing they might not cross the party or coalition will ever gain the 5-per-cent threshold to enter parlia- majority required to form a govern- ment, the Socialists teamed up with ment, and (b.) political negotiations the Association of Pensioners and the will never be quickly concluded. United Serbia Party, led by business- Even when the Democrats man Dragan Markovic “Palma”. achieved their surprising result at Pensioners leader, Jovan Krkoba- last month’s general election, it bic, Palma and Dacic are all pushing quickly became clear that the re- for a deal with the Democrats. sult was actually more-or-less the Socialist leader Ivica Dacic remains the Serbian kingmaker The reported price is the post of same as every other election result deputy PM, with a brief in charge of in Serbia, i.e. inconclusive. By Rade Maroevic in Belgrade to Serbia’s late president, Slobodan faces extinction unless it changes. security for the Socialist leader. This is likely to continue as long Milosevic, and reformists who want However, a strong current also In addition, the Socialists are bar- as Serbia’s politicians form new ense negotiations on a new gov- the party to become a modern Euro- flows in the opposite direction, led gaining for other ministries, includ- political parties every time they ernment have divided the ranks pean social democrat organisation. by party veterans enraged by the ing capital investments, Kosovo and disagree with their current party Tof the Socialist Party, which holds After eight years of stagnation, prospect of a deal with Tadic. education, Belgrade media reported. leader (there are currently 342 reg- the balance of power between the the Socialists returned to centre stage Mihajlo Markovic, a founder of Tadic has denied talk of horse- istered political parties in Serbia). main blocs and has yet to announce after winning 20 of the 250 seats in the party, recently warned of a crisis trading with the Socialists, maintain- Drawn-out negotiations are also which side they will support. parliament in the May 11 elections. if Dacic opts for the pro-European ing that ministries would go only to the norm. One Belgrade-based “It looks as if the Socialists will With the pro-European and nation- bloc, abandoning the Socialists’ “nat- those committed to working for the Ambassador recently told me he move towards a government led by alist blocs almost evenly matched, ural” ideological partners. government’s “strategic goal”. was also alarmed by the distinct the Democrats,” political analyst Mi- the Socialists now have the final say Markovic, a prominent supporter At the same time, Dacic seems re- lack of urgency among Serbian lan Nikolic, of the independent Cen- on the fate of the country. of Milosevic during the 1990s, is luctant to call off negotiations with politicians. “The country is at a tre of Policy Studies, said. “But such Nikolic believes the Socialists, led seen as representative of the “old- the nationalists. standstill and I don’t understand a move might provoke deeper divi- by Ivica Dacic, will come over to timers” in the party who want to stay “If we don’t reach an agreement their logic. If they are so eager to sions and even split the party.” Tadic, if only out of a pragmatic de- true to the former regime’s policies, with the DSS and Radicals, the par- progress towards the EU and en- Simultaneous negotiations held sire to ensure their political survival.