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Great Lakes Surface and Groundwater Model Integration Review Literature Review, Options for Approaches and Preliminary Action Plan for the Great Lakes Basin

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Great Lakes Surface and Groundwater Model Integration Review Literature Review, Options for Approaches and Preliminary Action Plan for the Great Lakes Basin Great Lakes Surface and Groundwater Model Integration Review Literature Review, Options for Approaches and Preliminary Action Plan for the Great Lakes Basin Prepared by the Great Lakes Science Advisory Board Research Coordination Committee Submitted to the International Joint Commission October 2018 Acknowledgments The Great Lakes Science Advisory Board’s Research Coordination Committee gratefully acknowledges the time and energy of the Steering Committee members who provided advice and guidance for this Surface and Groundwater Model Integration Review. Thanks also to Envirings Inc., which prepared this report. Steering Committee Members Lizhu Wang, International Joint Commission (IJC), Project Manager Sandy Eberts, United States Geological Survey (USGS), Co-chair Yves Michaud, Natural Resources Canada (NRCan), Co-chair Glenn Benoy, IJC Dick Berg, Illinois State Geological Survey Norm Grannemann, USGS Pradeep Goel, Ontario Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks (MECP) Deborah Lee, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Scott MacRitchie, MECP Kathy McKague, MECP Clare Robinson, University of Western Ontario Christina Semeniuk, University of Windsor Victor Serveiss, IJC Consulting Team members Mary Trudeau, Envirings Inc. René Drolet, René Drolet Consulting Services Jim Nicholas, Nicholas-h2o Pedro Restrepo, Consultant Cover Credits Cover photo: NASA Earth Observatory, Astronaut photograph ISS031-E-123071, Johnson Space Center; image taken by the Expedition 31 crew Cover diagram: United States Geological Survey Report, The Importance of Ground Water In the Great Lakes Region, Water Resources Investigations Report 00 – 4008, Figure 3 2 Table of Contents Acknowledgments ......................................................................................................................... 2 Glossary of terms .......................................................................................................... 4 Abbreviations ................................................................................................................ 4 Executive summary ...................................................................................................................... 6 1 Purpose ......................................................................................................................... 11 1.1 Background ................................................................................................................ 11 1.2 Project objectives ....................................................................................................... 11 1.3 Study team ................................................................................................................. 11 1.4 Organization of this document ................................................................................... 12 2 Model objectives and scope ................................................................................................ 13 3 Methodology ........................................................................................................................ 14 4 Literature review ................................................................................................................ 15 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 15 4.2 Scale ........................................................................................................................... 15 4.3 Uncertainty and limitations for modeling groundwater ............................................. 16 4.4 Overview of approaches and methodologies to modeling GW-SW interactions ...... 17 4.5 Overview of the scale addressed in studies relevant to the Great Lakes basin .......... 20 4.6 Surface water models ................................................................................................. 21 4.7 Groundwater models .................................................................................................. 22 4.8 Manually linked models ............................................................................................. 25 4.9 Externally and iteratively coupled models ................................................................. 25 4.10 Fully coupled groundwater-surface water models ..................................................... 30 4.11 Other supporting modeling tools ............................................................................... 32 4.12 Key data gaps ............................................................................................................. 33 5 Potential approaches .......................................................................................................... 37 5.1 Receptivity to a GW-SW model for the basin ........................................................... 37 5.2 Potential approaches .................................................................................................. 37 6 Workshop discussion .......................................................................................................... 42 6.1 Workshop overview and objectives ........................................................................... 42 6.2 Specific themes and questions for discussion ............................................................ 42 Modeling approach .................................................................................................... 42 Data needs and gaps .................................................................................................. 43 Future applications .................................................................................................... 43 6.3 Key outcomes ............................................................................................................. 43 7 Recommendations ............................................................................................................... 47 7.1 Development of an integrated GW-SW model .......................................................... 47 7.2 Preliminary plan ......................................................................................................... 48 8 References ......................................................................................................................... 49 Appendix A List of scientists participating in the survey 57 Appendix B Workshop participants 58 Appendix C Workshop agenda and materials 59 3 Glossary of terms Base flow provides a relatively stable supply of water, typically with high clarity and stable temperature. Base flow is alternatively termed indirect ground-water discharge by some authors. This streamflow is important to stream biota and helps support recreation-based industries (B P Neff et al. 2005). The term also is used as one word (baseflow) by some researchers. MODFLOW-NWT is a standalone model developed by the United States Geological Survey (USGS); it is a Newton-Raphson formulation for MODFLOW-2005 to improve solution of unconfined groundwater-flow problems, in particular those involving drying and rewetting nonlinearities of the unconfined groundwater-flow equation (Niswonger, Panday, and Ibaraki 2011). Abbreviations Abbreviation Meaning 2D Two dimensional 3D Three dimensional ACME Accelerated Climate Modeling for Energy (United States DOE) AHPS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (NOAA) AHPS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (National Water Model) AFINCH Analysis of flows in network channels (a surface water model) CAMC Conservation Authorities Moraine Coalition DOE Department of Energy (United States) ECCC Environment and Climate Change Canada GEM Global Environmental Multi-scale model GLAHF Great Lakes Aquatic Habitat Framework GLERL Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory, NOAA GLHD Great Lakes Hydrography Dataset GRACE Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment GW-SW Groundwater - surface water HGS HydroGeoSphere (an integrated groundwater-surface water model) IJC International Joint Commission INRS Institut national de la recherche scientifique, Québec IPCC International Panel on Climate Change LSM Land surface model MEC Modélisation Environnementale communautaire (ECCC) MECP Ministry of the Environment, Conservation and Parks (Ontario), formerly MOECC MNRF Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry (Ontario) MOECC Ministry of Environment and Climate Change (Ontario); Note the name of this ministry changed in June 2018 to MECP MONDM Ministry of Northern Development and Mines (Ontario) NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NCAR National Center for Atmospheric Research (United States) NEMO Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean NLDAS North American Land Data Assimilation System NRCan Natural Resources Canada NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (United States) NWM National Water Model (United States) PEST Parameter ESTimation SNTEMP Stream-Network TEMPerature model SVAT Soil-vegetation atmospheric transfer SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tool TNC The Nature Conservancy USGS United States Geological Survey WCPS Water Cycle Prediction System WRF Weather Research and Forecasting model (lead agency NCAR) 5 Executive summary The International Joint Commission’s Great Lakes Science Advisory Board has identified a need for a basin-scale assessment of the influence of groundwater on water quantity and quality of the Great Lakes basin. A first step in developing a basin-scale understanding is to develop
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