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DRAFT 2016-2017 Transmission Plan Thank You for Your Participation in the ISO Transmission Planning Process, and Your Review of This Draft Transmission Plan

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DRAFT 2016-2017 Transmission Plan Thank You for Your Participation in the ISO Transmission Planning Process, and Your Review of This Draft Transmission Plan Forward to DRAFT 2016-2017 Transmission Plan Thank you for your participation in the ISO transmission planning process, and your review of this draft transmission plan. The draft transmission plan represents the ISO’s current thinking on system needs over the next 10-years and is an opportunity for stakeholder input before final recommendations are advanced to the ISO Board of Governors in March. In reviewing the draft transmission plan, it is important to remember that the draft transmission plan is structured and written as a draft and not as a discussion document. Consequently, it is written in the same format and tone as the final transmission plan though it is open to change based on stakeholder input and new information as we move to finalizing the plan in March. The ISO’s objective each year is to provide a comprehensive review and assessment of the ISO transmission grid needs and draft recommendations on all decisions we expect to make in the course of the planning cycle. Stakeholders may note one change to the organizational structure of 2016-2017 Transmission Plan compared to other recent transmission plans. In other recent transmission plans, the local capacity requirements studies were included in a chapter labeled “Special Reliability Studies and Results”, and over time, other special studies were added to that chapter. As the use of the phrase “special studies” has evolved to apply to the optional studies the ISO has been undertaking in various planning cycles to help address emerging issues, including the local capacity studies in that chapter no longer not set the right context for the local capacity studies. The local capacity studies have therefore been moved into the chapter labeled “Other Studies and Results” together with the long term congestion revenue rights simultaneous feasibility test studies which are also performed in each planning cycle. The special studies chapter, named “Special Studies and Results” now focuses solely on the optional information-only studies conducted by the ISO in parallel with the normal 2016-2017 planning process. The chapters themselves have also been reorganized and renumbered. 2016-2017 ISO Transmission Plan January 31, 2017 Table of Contents Executive Summary ..................................................................................................... 1 Purpose of the Transmission Plan .................................................................... 4 The Transmission Planning Process ................................................................ 5 State Agency Coordination in Planning............................................................. 5 Key Reliability Study Findings .......................................................................... 6 Renewables Portfolio Standard Policy-driven Transmission Assessment ......... 6 Key Economic Study Findings .......................................................................... 9 Non-Transmission Alternatives and Preferred Resources................................. 9 Conclusions and Recommendations .............................................................. 10 Chapter 1 ................................................................................................................... 11 1 Overview of the Transmission Planning Process ............................................ 11 1.1 Purpose ........................................................................................ 11 1.2 Impacts of the Increasing Pace of Industry Transformation ........... 13 1.3 Structure of the Transmission Planning Process ........................... 21 1.3.1 Phase 1 ................................................................................... 21 1.3.2 Phase 2 ................................................................................... 24 1.3.3 Phase 3 ................................................................................... 26 1.4 Interregional Transmission Coordination per FERC Order No. 1000 ................................................................... 27 1.5 ISO Processes coordinated with the Transmission Plan ................ 29 Chapter 2 ................................................................................................................... 32 2 Reliability Assessment – Study Assumptions, Methodology and Results ........ 33 2.1 Overview of the ISO Reliability Assessment .................................. 33 2.1.1 Backbone (500 kV and selected 230 kV) System Assessment ............................................................................. 33 2.1.2 Regional Area Assessments .................................................... 33 2.1.3 Peak Demand ......................................................................... 34 2.2 Reliability Standards Compliance Criteria...................................... 35 2.2.1 NERC Reliability Standards ..................................................... 35 2.2.2 WECC Regional Criteria .......................................................... 35 2.2.3 California ISO Planning Standards .......................................... 35 2.3 Study Assumptions and Methodology ........................................... 36 2.3.1 Study Horizon and Years ......................................................... 36 2.3.2 Transmission Assumptions ...................................................... 36 2.3.3 Load Forecast Assumptions .................................................... 37 2.3.4 Generation Assumptions ......................................................... 40 2.3.5 Preferred Resources ............................................................... 48 2.3.6 Firm Transfers ......................................................................... 53 2.3.7 Operating Procedures ............................................................. 54 2.3.8 Study Scenarios ...................................................................... 55 2.3.9 Contingencies ......................................................................... 59 California ISO/MID i 2016-2017 ISO Transmission Plan January 31, 2017 2.3.10 Study Methodology .................................................................. 61 2.4 PG&E Bulk Transmission System Assessment ............................. 63 2.4.1 PG&E Bulk Transmission System Description ......................... 63 2.4.2 Study Assumptions and System Conditions ............................ 64 2.4.3 Assessment and Recommendations ....................................... 67 2.5 PG&E Local Areas Assessment .................................................... 72 2.5.1 Humboldt Area ........................................................................ 72 2.5.2 North Coast and North Bay Areas ........................................... 76 2.5.3 North Valley Area .................................................................... 80 2.5.4 Central Valley Area ................................................................. 83 2.5.5 Greater Bay Area .................................................................... 87 2.5.6 Greater Fresno Area ............................................................... 92 2.5.7 Kern Area ................................................................................ 95 2.5.8 Central Coast and Los Padres Areas ...................................... 98 2.5.9 Review of previously approved projects ................................ 102 2.6 Southern California Bulk Transmission System Assessment ....... 105 2.6.1 Area Description .................................................................... 105 2.6.2 Area-Specific Assumptions and System Conditions .............. 107 2.6.3 Assessment and Recommendations ..................................... 114 2.7 SCE Local Areas Assessment ..................................................... 116 2.7.1 Tehachapi and Big Creek Corridor ........................................ 116 2.7.2 North of Lugo Area ................................................................ 122 2.7.3 East of Lugo .......................................................................... 126 2.7.4 SCE Eastern and MWD Area ................................................ 131 2.7.5 SCE Metro Area .................................................................... 134 2.8 Valley Electric Association Local Area Assessment .................... 137 2.8.1 Area Description .................................................................... 137 2.8.2 Area-Specific Assumptions and System Conditions .............. 137 2.8.3 Assessment and Recommendations ..................................... 138 2.9 San Diego Gas & Electric Local Area Assessment ...................... 139 2.9.1 Area Description .................................................................... 139 2.9.2 Area-Specific Assumptions and System Conditions .............. 140 2.9.3 Assessments and Recommendations .................................... 144 Chapter 3 ................................................................................................................. 152 3 Policy-Driven Need Assessment ................................................................... 153 3.1 Study Assumptions and Methodology ......................................... 153 3.1.1 33 Percent RPS Portfolios ..................................................... 153 3.1.2 Testing Deliverability for RPS ................................................ 155 3.2 Policy-Driven Deliverability Assessment Results and Mitigations 159 Chapter 4 ................................................................................................................
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