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The Science of Gun Policy: a Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of U.S The Science of Gun Policy A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States Gun Policy inAMERICA C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2088 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Rand Corporation, issuing body. Title: The science of gun policy : a critical synthesis of research evidence on the effects of gun policies in the United States / The RAND Corporation. Description: Santa Monica, CA : RAND, [2018] | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: LCCN 2017060115| ISBN 9780833098412 (pbk. : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780833098436 (epub) | ISBN 9780833098443 (prc) | ISBN 9780833098429 (ebook pdf) Subjects: LCSH: Gun control--United States. Classification: LCC HV7436 .S387 2018 | DDC 363.330973--dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017060115 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Updated Aug. 16, 2018, to correct minor errata on pp. 296–297. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and committed to the public interest. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors. Support RAND Make a tax-deductible charitable contribution at www.rand.org/giving/contribute www.rand.org Gun Policy in America Research Synthesis Project Team Project Director Andrew R. Morral, Ph.D. Research Synthesis Project Leadership Rajeev Ramchand, Ph.D. Rosanna Smart, Ph.D. Literature Review Groups Suicides Defensive Gun Use Rajeev Ramchand, Ph.D. Nancy Nicosia, Ph.D. John Speed Meyers, M.P.A. Homicides and Violent Crime Carole Roan Gresenz, Ph.D. Hunting and Sport Shooting John Speed Meyers, M.P.A. Rosanna Smart, Ph.D. Rouslan I. Karimov, M.P.A. Eric Apaydin, M.P.P. Lea Xenakis, M.P.A. Gun Industry Accidents and Unintentional Injuries Carter C. Price, Ph.D. Eric Apaydin, M.P.P. Rajeev Ramchand, Ph.D. Mental Health Stephanie Brooks Holliday, Ph.D. Mass Shootings and Taxation Rosanna Smart, Ph.D. Public Information Campaigns Elizabeth L. Petrun Sayers, Ph.D. Officer-Involved Shootings Carter C. Price, Ph.D. Policy Descriptions Samantha Cherney, J.D. Rosanna Smart, Ph.D. Methodology Review Carole Roan Gresenz, Ph.D. Beth Ann Griffin, Ph.D. Andrew R. Morral, Ph.D. Nancy Nicosia, Ph.D. Rajeev Ramchand, Ph.D. Terry L. Schell, Ph.D. Rosanna Smart, Ph.D. Effect-Size Calculation Brett Ewing, M.S. Programming Joshua Lawrence Traub, M.S. iii Preface Effective gun policies in the United States must balance the constitutional right to bear arms and public interest in gun ownership with concerns about public health and safety. However, current efforts to craft legislation related to guns are hampered by a paucity of reliable information about the effects of such policies. To help address this problem, the RAND Corporation launched the Gun Policy in America initia- tive. Throughout RAND’s 70-year history, in multiple projects, in many policy arenas, and on topics that are sensitive and controversial, researchers have conducted analyses, built tools, and developed resources to help policymakers and the public make effective decisions. The primary goal of the Gun Policy in America project is to create resources where policymakers and the general public can access unbiased information that facilitates the development of fair and effective firearm policies. This report is one of several research products stemming from the initiative. The research described here synthesizes the available scientific evidence on the effects of 13 types of firearm policies on a range of outcomes related to gun ownership. In addi- tion, this report includes essays on several topics that frequently arise in discussions of gun policy. Other project components include a survey of policy experts that identifies where access to reliable data would be most useful in resolving policy debates, plus an online tool allowing users to explore how different combinations of gun policies are likely to affect a range of outcomes. In another line of effort, RAND conducted simulation studies to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches to modeling the effects of gun policies on outcomes, the results of which will be used to develop new estimates of the effects of state firearm policies. Finally, the project includes the development of a longitudinal database of state firearm laws as a resource for other researchers and the public. The Gun Policy in America initiative did not attempt to evaluate the merits of different values or principles that sometimes drive policy disagreements. Rather, our focus is strictly on the empirical effects of policies on the eight outcomes specified in this report. All of our resources are publicly available on the project website at www.rand.org/gunpolicy. v vi The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of U.S. Policies The work should be of interest to policymakers and other stakeholders consider- ing decisions related to firearm policy. Furthermore, this report may be of interest to the research community and to the general public. RAND Ventures The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous. RAND is nonprofit, nonpartisan, and commit- ted to the public interest. RAND Ventures is a vehicle for investing in such policy solutions. Philan- thropic contributions support our ability to take the long view, tackle tough and often- controversial topics, and share our findings in innovative and compelling ways. RAND’s research findings and recommendations are based on data and evidence and therefore do not necessarily reflect the policy preferences or interests of its clients, donors, or supporters. Funding for this venture was provided by gifts from RAND supporters and income from operations. Contents Gun Policy in America Research Synthesis Project Team .................................... iii Preface .................................................................................................. v Figures ................................................................................................xiii Tables ..................................................................................................xv Summary ............................................................................................ xvii Acknowledgments .................................................................................xxix Abbreviations ...................................................................................... xxxi PART A Introduction and Methods .......................................................................... 1 CHAPTER ONE Introduction ........................................................................................... 3 Gun Policy in America ................................................................................ 4 Research Focus ......................................................................................... 4 Organization of This Report .........................................................................10 Chapter One References ..............................................................................11 CHAPTER TWO Methods ...............................................................................................15 Selecting Policies ......................................................................................15 Selecting and Reviewing Studies ....................................................................17 Effects of the Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria on the Literature Reviewed ..................25 Effect Size Estimates ..................................................................................29 Chapter Two References ..............................................................................31 PART B Evidence on the Effects of 13 Policies ............................................................37 CHAPTER THREE Background Checks .................................................................................39 State Implementation of Background Checks .....................................................41 vii viii The Science of Gun Policy: A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of U.S. Policies Effects on Suicide .................................................................................... 43 Effects on Violent Crime ............................................................................ 48 Effects on Mass Shootings .......................................................................... 54 Outcomes Without Studies Examining
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