DOCSLIB.ORG

Survey Research and Self-Defense Gun Use: an Explanation of Extreme Overestimates David Hemenway

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Survey Research and Self-Defense Gun Use: an Explanation of Extreme Overestimates David Hemenway Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology Volume 87 Article 5 Issue 4 Summer Summer 1997 Survey Research and Self-Defense Gun Use: An Explanation of Extreme Overestimates David Hemenway Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarlycommons.law.northwestern.edu/jclc Part of the Criminal Law Commons, Criminology Commons, and the Criminology and Criminal Justice Commons Recommended Citation David Hemenway, Survey Research and Self-Defense Gun Use: An Explanation of Extreme Overestimates, 87 J. Crim. L. & Criminology 1430 (1996-1997) This Criminology is brought to you for free and open access by Northwestern University School of Law Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology by an authorized editor of Northwestern University School of Law Scholarly Commons. 0091-4169/97/8704-1430 THEJOURNAL oF CRIMINAL LAw & CRIMINOLOGY Vol. 87, No. 4 Copyright © 1997 by Northwestern University, School of Law Printed in USA. POLICY AND PERSPECTIVES Editor's note: In Fall 1995, theJournalpublished an articleby Professors Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz, Armed Resistance to Crime: The Prevalence and Nature of Self-Defense with a Gun, 86J. CGlM. & CRIMINOLOGY 150 (1995). As part of its Policy and Perspectives section, the Journalnow publishes the views of ProfessorDavid Hemenway on the Kleck-Gertz paper, a reply by Professors Kleck and Gertz, and the views of Professor Tom Smith on both the Hemenway and Kleck-Gertz papers. As always, the views expressed here are those of the authors. SURVEY RESEARCH AND SELF-DEFENSE GUN USE: AN EXPLANATION OF EXTREME OVERESTIMATES DAVID I{EMENWAY* I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz conducted a survey of civilian defen- sive gun use in 1992. In 1993, Kleck began publicizing the estimate that civilians use guns in self-defense against offenders up to 2.5 mil- lion times each year.1 This figure has been widely used by the Na- tional Rifle Association and by gun advocates. It is also often cited in the media2 and even in Congress.3 The Kleck and Gertz (K-G) paper has now been published.4 It is clear, however, that its conclusions can- not be accepted as valid. * Professor of Health Policy, Harvard School of Public Health. The author gives spe- cial thanks to Dimitrios Trichopoulos, Sue Swartz, Phil Cook, Deb Azrael, Eric Rimm, Frank Zimring, Jon Vernick, Daniel Webster, Tom Cole, and Al Biderman. 1 J.N. Schulman, Guns, Crimes and Self-defense, ORANGE CouNTr REG., Sept. 19, 1993, at 3 (editorial section); Talk of the Nation: Interview with Gary Kleck and Arthur Kellermann (Na- tional Public Radio broadcast, Aug. 8, 1994). 2 See Gordon Witkin, The Great Debate: Should You Own a Gun, U.S. NEws & WORLD REP., Aug. 15, 1994, at 24-31. 3 Cong. Res. Service, Gun Control in CRS IssuE BRIEF (Keith Bea ed., 1995). 4 Gary Kleck & Marc Gertz, Armed Resistance to Crime: The Prevalence and Nature of Self- defense with a Gun, 86J. CRiM. L. & CIMINOLOc 150 (1995). 1430 1997] SURVEY RESEARCH & SELF-DEFENSE GUN USE 1431 Two aspects of the K-G survey combine to create severe misesti- mation. The first is the likelihood of positive social desirability re- sponse, sometimes referred to as personal presentation bias. An individual who purchases a gun for self-defense and then uses it suc- cessfully to ward off a criminal is displaying the wisdom of his precau- tions and his capability in protecting himself, his loved ones, and his property. His action is to be commended and admired. Some positive social desirability response bias, by itself, might not lead to serious overestimation. However, combined with a second as- pect of the survey-the attempt to estimate a very rare event-it does. The search for a "needle in a haystack" has major methodological dangers, especially where researchers try to extrapolate the findings to society as a whole. Until the K-G study, no one had estimated that even as many as 1% of adult civilians had used a gun in self-defense in the past year. Nevertheless, assume that the actual incidence is 1%. On average, for every 100 individuals asked a 'Yes/No" question about the event, ninety-nine respondents will have a chance to be misclassified as a false positive. In ninety-nine answers there is the possibility of positive social desirability response bias. However, on average only one re- spondent-the one who actually did use a gun in self defense-could possibly be misclassified as a false negative (e.g., if she forgot about the event). Even if the chance of forgetting is high, as long as there is any possibility of positive response bias, it is very likely that the survey finding will be an overestimate. The fact that the survey is trying to estimate a low probability event also means that a small percentage bias, when extrapolated, can lead to extreme overestimates. Consider a survey finding which con- tains a 1% overestimate of positive responses. If the true incidence of the event is 60%, estimating it at 61% would not be a problem. But if the true incidence is 1%, measuring it as 2% would be a doubling of the true rate; and if the true incidence is 0.1%, measuring it at 1.1% would be an eleven-fold overestimate. The K-G survey design contains a huge overestimation bias. The authors do little to reduce the bias or to validate their findings by external measures. All checks for external validity of the Kleck-Gertz finding confirm that their estimate is highly exaggerated. II. BACKGROUND Previous data on self-defense gun use came from two sources- the large National Crime Victimization surveys (NCVS), and smaller private surveys (principally random-digit-dial telephone surveys). These two sources produce markedly different results. 1432 DAVID HEMENWAY [Vol. 87 The NCVS employs a multistage design with a probability sample of some 50,000 housing units in the United States (e.g., in 1994 there were 47,600 housing units and 90,560 persons) .5 The survey is con- ducted by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Justice Statistics. Housing units remain in the NCVS for three years and residents are interviewed at six month intervals. Initial surveys are in-person, while subsequent ones are typically by telephone. Respondents who report a threatened, attempted or completed victimization for six crimes- rape, robbery, assault, burglary, non-business larceny and motor vehi- cle theft-are asked detailed questions about the incident. NCVS results indicate that, nationally, victims use guns against offenders approximately 65,000 times per year. 6 Kleck believes peo- ple under-report to the government NCVS interviewers, especially since the surveys are not anonymous. He also finds fault with the NCVS survey for asking about self-defense gun use only for individuals who have been victimized. 7 Interestingly, it is this latter feature of the NCVS which dramatically reduces the overestimation bias found in the private surveys. Based on eight national surveys, undertaken between 1976 and 1990, Eleck estimates that guns are used approximately 700,000 times per year in self-defense. 8 However, all eight surveys have very serious limitations. Compared to the NCVS, the sample size of each of these surveys is small (600 - 1500) and interviewers typically asked only one vague question about gun use in self-defense (e.g., "Have you used a gun in self-defense in the previous five years?") with no follow-up questions.9 Only one of the surveys meets the minimum criteria of drawing from a representative national population, asking about a specific time frame, distinguishing civilian use from military or police uses, and distinguishing uses against humans from uses against animals.10 A review of Kleck's analysis argued that "Kleck's conclusions rest on limited data and strong assumptions. Small changes in the proce- dure produce large differences in the findings. The estimates are 5 UNITED STATES DEP'T OF JUSTICE, CRIMINAL VICTIMIZATION IN THE UNITED STATES, 1994: A NATIONAL CRIME VICTIMIZATION SURVEY REPORT (1997). 6 PhilipJ. Cook, The Technology ofPersonal Violence, in 14 CRIME AND JUSTICE: AN ANNUAL REVIEW OF RESEARCH (Michael Tonry ed., 1991); see also David McDowall & Brian Wier- sema, The Incidence of Defensive Firearm Use by U.S. Crime Victims, 1987 through 1990, 84 AM. J. PUBLIC HEALTH 1982-84 (1994); Philip J. Cook &Jens Ludwig, Guns in America: Results of a Comprehensive National Survey on Firearms Ownership and Use, Police Foundation (1996). 7 GARY KLECK, POINT BLANK: GUNS AND VIOLENCE IN AMERICA 110 (1991). 8 See id. at 105-07. 9 Kleck & Gertz, supra note 4, at 157. 10 See id. at 155. 1997] SURVEY RESEARCH & SELF-DEFENSE GUN USE 1433 questionable, and it appears unwise to place much weight on them."" A National Research Council report also finds that Kleck's estimates appear exaggerated and says that it is almost certain that "some of what respondents designate as their own self-defense would be con- strued as aggression by others."' 2 III. Tim KLECK-GERTZ SURVEY In 1992, Kleck and Gertz conducted a national random-digit-dial survey of five thousand dwelling units, asking detailed questions about self-defense gun use. 13 Their estimates of civilian self-defense gun use range from 1 million to 2.5 million times per year.14 The 2.5 million figure is the one they believe to be most accurate and the one Kleck has publicized, so that figure will be discussed in this paper. K-G derive their 2.5 million estimate from the fact that 1.33% of the individuals surveyed reported that they themselves used a gun in self-defense during the past year;15 in other words, about 66 people out of 5000 reported such a use.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Journey to Gunland
    PUBLIC HEALTH JOURNEY TO GUNLAND 54 Scientific American, October 2017 JOURNEY TO More firearms do not keep people safe, hard numbers show. Why do so many Americans believe the opposite? By Melinda Wenner Moyer GUNLAND Photographs by Ben Rollins October 2017, ScientificAmerican.com 55 AFTER I PULLED THE TRIGGER Writer Melinda Wenner Moyer won an Award for AND RECOVERED FROM THE Excellence in Health Care Journalism for her December 2016 Scientific American article “The Looming Threat RECOIL, I SLOWLY REFOCUSED of Factory-Farm Superbugs.” MY EYES ON THE TARGET. THERE IT WAS—A TINY BUT DISTINCT 1 CIRCLE NEXT TO THE ZOMBIE’S EYE, THE FIRST BULLET HOLE I’D EVER MADE. I LOOKED DOWN AT THE SHAKING GLOCK 19 IN MY HANDS. A SWIFT AND STRONG EMOTIONAL TRANSFORMATION SWEPT OVER ME. IN SECONDS, I WENT FROM FEELING NERVOUS, EVEN TERRIFIED, TO EXHILARATED AND UNASSAILABLE— A N D RIGHT THEN I UNDERSTOOD WHY MILLIONS OF AMERICANS GUN CITY: Kennesaw, Ga., near Atlanta, has a law requiring citizens to own firearms (1 ). At the Governors Gun Club outside BELIEVE GUNS KEEP THEM SAFE. town, people practice shooting targets (2 ). I was standing in a shooting range 15 miles south of Ken- running for president, said of the 2015 shooting massacre in San nesaw, Ga., a place known as “America’s Gun City” because of a Bernardino, Calif., that “if we had guns in California on the other law requiring residents to own firearms. It was day two of a side, where the bullets went in the different direction, you four-day road trip I’d embarked on to investigate a controver- wouldn’t have 14 or 15 people dead right now.” Mike Watkins, a sial and popular claim made by the gun lobby: that more guns cop–turned–firearm instructor at the Kennesaw range, put it this protect more people from crime.
    [Show full text]
  • “Gun Control” Vs. “Self- Protection”: a Case Against the Ideological Divide
    “Gun Control” vs. “Self- Protection”: A Case against the Ideological Divide James M. La Valle1 Justice Policy Journal Volume 10, Number 1 (Spring) © Center on Juvenile and Criminal Justice 2013 www.cjcj.org/jpj Abstract A recent string of vicious, senseless and tragic mass spree killings have propelled an intense re-appraisal of U.S. gun laws, but the ensuing dialogue amply demonstrates that the opposing sides of the gun policy debate are as firmly entrenched in their mutual opposition to one another as ever before (Washington, 2012). Those who favor stricter “gun control” axiomatically oppose “personal protection” (e.g., “right to carry”) strategies, whereas those who favor “personal protection” measures stridently oppose “gun control”. The present study compares statistically (N=1736) these two contrasting approaches according to the methodological recommendations published by a National Academy of Sciences Research Panel (Wellford, Pepper & Petrie, 2005), and the results provisionally suggest that “personal protection” (“right to carry”; henceforth “RTC”) laws may reduce both gun homicide rates and total homicide rates, whereas traditional “gun control” policies do not detectably effect either outcome. However, the present study also observes that neither type of measure was originally designed to protect the public against the presently emerging and more deadly threat posed by armed and mentally 1 Coker College, Hartsville, SC, USA. Corresponding Author: James La Valle, Assistant Professor of Criminology, Coker College, Hartsville, SC, USA. Email: [email protected]. La Valle Justice Policy Journal, Spring 2013 disturbed mass spree killers. Suggestions for the modification of existing gun measures to more effectively prevent future mass spree-killings are offered.
    [Show full text]
  • Case 3:19-Cv-01537-BEN-JLB Document 115 Filed 06/04/21 Pageid.10515 Page 1 of 94
    Case 3:19-cv-01537-BEN-JLB Document 115 Filed 06/04/21 PageID.10515 Page 1 of 94 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT 8 SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF CALIFORNIA 9 10 JAMES MILLER, et al., Case No.: 19-cv-1537-BEN (JLB) 11 Plaintiffs, DECISION 12 v. 13 ROB BONTA, in his official capacity as Attorney General of the State of 14 California, et al., 15 Defendants. 16 17 I. INTRODUCTION 18 Like the Swiss Army Knife, the popular AR-15 rifle is a perfect combination of 19 home defense weapon and homeland defense equipment. Good for both home and battle, 20 the AR-15 is the kind of versatile gun that lies at the intersection of the kinds of firearms 21 protected under District of Columbia v. Heller, 554 U.S. 570 (2008) and United States v 22 Miller, 307 U.S. 174 (1939). Yet, the State of California makes it a crime to have an AR- 23 15 type rifle. Therefore, this Court declares the California statutes to be unconstitutional. 24 Plaintiffs challenge a net of interlocking statutes which impose strict criminal 25 restrictions on firearms that fall under California’s complex definition of the ignominious 26 “assault weapon.” Hearings on a preliminary injunction were consolidated with a trial on 27 the merits pursuant to F.R.C.P. Rule 65(a)(2). Having considered the evidence, the Court 28 1 19-cv-1537-BEN (JLB) Case 3:19-cv-01537-BEN-JLB Document 115 Filed 06/04/21 PageID.10516 Page 2 of 94 1 issues these findings of fact and conclusions of law,1 finds for the Plaintiffs, and enters 2 Judgment accordingly.
    [Show full text]
  • Defensive Gun Use (DGU) in the American Gun Debate
    DOI: 10.5604/01.3001.0014.3280 ASEJ ISSN: 2543-9103 ISSN: 2543-411X (online) Defensive Gun Use (DGU) in the American Gun Debate Karol Mazur1, Justyna Hasij2 1 MA in Political Science. PhD Candidate at The Institute of Political Studies, Polish Academy of Sciences Poland 2 The Higher School of Strategic Planning in Dabrowa Gornicza Kościelna 6, 41-300 Dąbrowa Górnicza - Poland maintaining the current regulations, and even for their Abstract- In this article, it is attempted to present a cross- liberalization, where, after tightening them, there is a clear sectional view on the issue of defensive gun use (DGU) in the increase in crime. In the opinion of the supporters of the 2nd United States. This issue is a key element in the US gun control Amendment, it is possible to look at the issue of access of debate that is currently underway in the academic community; firearms from a different perspective, which is often overlooked criminologists, economists, political scientists and researchers dealing with broadly understood public health. Research in this in the broadly understood public debate. area and the data obtained are also one of the pillars arguments of Therefore, statistics and data from DGU rely on the sum of the defenders of the United States’ 2nd Amendment to the event registrations that can be qualified to the so-called positive Constitution. The article uses a selective review of the conclusions effect of having a gun. On the other hand, the positive effect of of the leading researchers and representatives in this field. having a gun can be defined as a situation in which the gun allowed the victims to repel the attack satisfactorily only for Index Terms— DGU, (S)DGU, Defensive Gun Use, Right to themselves and the environment.
    [Show full text]
  • Myths About Defensive Gun Use and Permissive Gun Carry Laws
    MEDIA BERKELEY STUDIES GROUP Myths about Defensive Gun Use and Permissive Gun Carry Laws Daniel Webster, ScD, MPH Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD Jens Ludwig, PhD Georgetown University, Washington, DC © 2000 Prepared for the "Strengthening the Public Health Debate on Handguns, Crime, and Safety" meeting, Berkeley Media October 14 & 15, 1999, Chicago, IL, with support from the Joyce Foundation Studies Group 2140 Shattuck Ave. Suite 804 Berkeley, CA 94704 510.204.9700 fax 510.204.9710 [email protected] 2 Myths about Defensive Gun Use and Permissive Gun Carry Laws Myths about Defensive Gun Use and Permissive Gun Carry Laws In 1998, economist John Lott, Jr. published a book with the provocative title More Guns, Less Crime1 in which he presents and interprets data to support his thesis that communities are safer when its residents are free of government restrictions on gun ownership and carrying. The book focuses primarily on two of his studies. The first, conducted with David Mustard, estimates the effects on crime attributable to state laws that allow virtually all eligible gun buyers to obtain a permit to carry a gun in public.2 The second, conducted with William Landes, examines the effects of permissive gun carrying laws on mass shootings.3 In each case, the authors conclude that permissive gun carrying laws result in substantial reductions in violent crime. Another study that examines the benefits of gun ownership and carrying was conducted by Florida State University criminologists Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz,4 and was designed to estimate the frequency with which would-be-victims of crime in the U.S.
    [Show full text]
  • The Science of Gun Policy: a Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of U.S
    The Science of Gun Policy A Critical Synthesis of Research Evidence on the Effects of Gun Policies in the United States Gun Policy inAMERICA C O R P O R A T I O N For more information on this publication, visit www.rand.org/t/RR2088 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Names: Rand Corporation, issuing body. Title: The science of gun policy : a critical synthesis of research evidence on the effects of gun policies in the United States / The RAND Corporation. Description: Santa Monica, CA : RAND, [2018] | Includes bibliographical references. Identifiers: LCCN 2017060115| ISBN 9780833098412 (pbk. : alk. paper) | ISBN 9780833098436 (epub) | ISBN 9780833098443 (prc) | ISBN 9780833098429 (ebook pdf) Subjects: LCSH: Gun control--United States. Classification: LCC HV7436 .S387 2018 | DDC 363.330973--dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2017060115 Published by the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, Calif. © Copyright 2018 RAND Corporation R® is a registered trademark. Updated Aug. 16, 2018, to correct minor errata on pp. 296–297. Limited Print and Electronic Distribution Rights This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited. Permission is given to duplicate this document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial use. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions. The RAND Corporation is a research organization that develops solutions to public policy challenges to help make communities throughout the world safer and more secure, healthier and more prosperous.
    [Show full text]
  • Written Only Testimony by Roderick K. Becker Director, Department of Budget and Finance to the Senate Committees on Judiciary and Ways and Means on House Bill No
    DAVID Y. IGE RODERICK K. BECKER GOVERNOR DIRECTOR ROBERT YU DEPUTY DIRECTOR STATE OF HAWAII ADMINISTRATIVE AND RESEARCH OFFICE EMPLOYEES’ RETIREMENT SYSTEM DEPARTMENT OF BUDGET AND FINANCE BUDGET, PROGRAM PLANNING AND HAWAII EMPLOYER-UNION HEALTH BENEFITS TRUST FUND MANAGEMENT DIVISION OFFICE OF THE PUBLIC DEFENDER P.O. BOX 150 FINANCIAL ADMINISTRATION DIVISION HONOLULU, HAWAII 96810-0150 OFFICE OF FEDERAL AWARDS MANAGEMENT (OFAM) WRITTEN ONLY TESTIMONY BY RODERICK K. BECKER DIRECTOR, DEPARTMENT OF BUDGET AND FINANCE TO THE SENATE COMMITTEES ON JUDICIARY AND WAYS AND MEANS ON HOUSE BILL NO. 1541, H.D. 2, S.D. 1 April 3, 2019 10:00 a.m. Room 211 RELATING TO GUN VIOLENCE PREVENTION House Bill (H.B.) No. 1541, H.D. 2, S.D. 1, establishes the Hawaii Gun Violence Prevention Center (HGVPC), within the University of Hawaii, to conduct extensive research on gun-related violence and its prevention. This bill also creates the HGVPC Special Fund (HGVPCSF) that would generate revenues through Legislative appropriations, donations, contributions, and grants; appropriates an unspecified sum of general funds in FY 20 and FY 21 for deposit into the HGVPCSF; and appropriates an unspecified amount from the HGVPCSF in FY 20 and FY 21 for the hiring of three or more full-time equivalent permanent positions. As a matter of general policy, the department does not support the creation of any special fund which does not meet the requirements of Section 37-52.3, HRS. Special funds should: 1) serve a need as demonstrated by the purpose, scope of work and an explanation why the program cannot be implemented successfully under the general fund appropriation process; 2) reflect a clear nexus between the benefits sought and charges made upon the users or beneficiaries or a clear link between the program No.
    [Show full text]
  • Guns and Justifiable Homicide: Deterrence and Defense
    Saint Louis University Public Law Review Volume 18 Number 1 Gun Control (Vol. XVIII, No. 1) Article 11 1999 Guns and Justifiable Homicide: Deterrence and Defense Lawrence Southwick Jr. Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarship.law.slu.edu/plr Part of the Law Commons Recommended Citation Southwick, Lawrence Jr. (1999) "Guns and Justifiable Homicide: Deterrence and Defense," Saint Louis University Public Law Review: Vol. 18 : No. 1 , Article 11. Available at: https://scholarship.law.slu.edu/plr/vol18/iss1/11 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by Scholarship Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Saint Louis University Public Law Review by an authorized editor of Scholarship Commons. For more information, please contact Susie Lee. SAINT LOUIS UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF LAW GUNS AND JUSTIFIABLE HOMICIDE: DETERRENCE AND DEFENSE LAWRENCE SOUTHWICK, JR.* “. the victims are no doubt better than the wrongdoers, but are at the mercy of their inferiors in the field in which they themselves are inferior, where, that is, they cannot be classed among the good since they have not trained themselves in self-defense. .But at this stage some have not armed themselves-and the duly armed win the day. Not even a God would have the right to deal a blow for the unwarlike: the law decrees that to come safe out of battle is for fighting men, not for those that pray.” Plotinus1 1. Introduction Self-defense may be a more important part of the overall crime control effort than is popularly recognized. In the mass media, it is usually assumed that crime fighting is the exclusive province of the criminal justice system; that is, the police, courts, and corrections organizations.
    [Show full text]
  • Discussing Whether Kansas's New Stand Your
    05 - WELLS FINAL 8/24/2008 12:26:20 PM Home on the Gun Range: Discussing Whether Kansas’s New Stand Your Ground Statute Will Protect Gun Owners Who Use Disproportionate Force in Self-Defense∗ I. INTRODUCTION On October 8, 2006, Norman Borden was walking his four pit bulls in West Palm Beach, Florida, when he got into an altercation with two young men.1 The men exchanged heated words, and Borden showed the men that he had a gun. The two young men left and went to pick up a third man, who was a “documented member of a violent gang.”2 The three men returned in a Jeep, carrying bats, and started to drive toward Borden.3 In response, he shot at the vehicle fourteen times.4 After shooting five times through the windshield, Borden walked around to the driver’s side and shot into the car nine more times.5 Two of the three men in the car were killed, and the other man was critically wounded.6 During Borden’s murder trial, the prosecution argued that the first five shots were in self-defense, but the last nine shots were murder.7 However, under Florida’s new “stand your ground” law,8 all of Borden’s actions were considered self-defense, and he was acquitted.9 Florida’s law allows the use of deadly force in self-defense when reasonably ∗ Annie Wells. J.D. candidate 2009, University of Kansas School of Law. B.A. 2005, Trinity University. I would like to thank Professor Jelani Jefferson for her assistance with this Note.
    [Show full text]
  • AFF Brief Resolved: the United States Should Require Universal Background Checks for All Gun Sales and Transfers of Ownership
    AFF Brief Resolved: The United States should require universal background checks for all gun sales and transfers of ownership. Definitions 3 Universal Background Checks 3 Transfer of Ownership 4 Firearm Trafficking 5 Straw Purchase 5 AFF Offense 6 Economy 6 Social Movements 6 Social Movements Overview 10 Federal Gun Registry 13 Popular Support for Universal Background Checks 14 Closing Gun Control Loopholes 15 General 15 Gun Show 19 Private Sales 20 Internet 21 Guns from Other States 22 Impact: Restricting Guns From Criminals 22 Impact: Gun Deaths 23 Impact: Domestic Violence 25 Impact: Violent Crime 25 Impact: Suicides 27 Social Movements 28 Momentum/Efficacy 28 Racism 28 Registry 29 Frontlines 30 Frontlines to Suicide 30 R/T Kids get guns from their parents 30 Responses to NEG 31 R/T Backlash 31 R/T Incrementalism 33 R/T Drop in Constituent Support 35 R/T Focus on Statewide Reforms 35 R/T Impact 36 R/T Criminalization 37 R/T General 37 R/T Minority Criminalization 37 R/T Unconstitutional 39 R/T National Gun Registry 40 R/T Criminals Won’t Obey 43 R/T Blackmarket 45 R/T Background Checks are Ineffective 47 R/T No Recovery 48 R/T Politic Costs 49 R/T 2018 midterms 49 R/T Political Capital Tradeoff 50 R/T Tradeoff with mental health treatment 51 R/T Registry Bad 51 R/T Doesn’t Work 51 R/T Self-Defense 52 R/T In Home 53 R/T Crime-Stopper 53 R/T Lott 54 R/T Kleck and Getz 92’ 55 Definitions Universal Background Checks Universal background checks close prevent the transfer of arms between unlicensed persons (Krouse - Congressional Research Service).
    [Show full text]
  • Aiming for Evidence-Based Gun Policy
    Policy Retrospectives Douglas J. Besharov Editor Submissions to Policy Retrospectives should be sent to Douglas J. Besharov, School of Public Policy, University of Maryland/American Enterprise Institute, College Park, Maryland 20742; (301) 405-6341. AIMING FOR EVIDENCE-BASED GUN POLICY Philip J. Cook and Jens Ludwig INTRODUCTION In an era when it has become fashionable to advocate that social policy be guided by evidence, social scientists should be riding high. But there is a problem: The available evidence on what works in the social-policy arena is typically something less than definitive. Experts disagree. Sometimes the only consensus that can be mustered among researchers is that “more research is required,” often a dubious assertion when there has been voluminous research already. Meanwhile, policy- makers are left free to either ignore the research evidence, or to search out an expert who supports their position. A case in point is the recent report on gun violence of an expert panel of the National Research Council. In one topic after another, the NRC’s blue-ribbon panel concludes that the existing evidence is inconclusive (Wellford, Pepper, & Petrie, 2005).1 It calls for an investment in better data, the invention of better 1 Or in the NRC panel’s own words: “The committee found that answers to some of the most pressing ques- tions cannot be addressed with existing data and research methods...the committee concludes that exist- ing research studies and data include a wealth of descriptive information on homicide, suicide and firearms, but, because of the limitations of existing data and methods, do not credibly demonstrate a causal relation- ship between the ownership of firearms and the causes or prevention of criminal violence or suicide.
    [Show full text]
  • The Impact of Concealed-Carry Laws 289
    0979-08 Ch08 01/13/03 15:22 Page 287 JOHN J. DONOHUE The Impact of 8 Concealed-Carry Laws hirty-three states have “shall-issue” laws that require law- Tenforcement authorities to issue permits to carry concealed weapons to any qualified applicant who requests one—that is, to adults with no documented record of significant criminality or mental illness. A spirited aca- demic debate has emerged over whether these laws are helpful or harmful. While it is fairly easy to list the possible consequences of the passage of these laws, it has not been easy to come to agreement about which effects dominate in practice. Many scholars fear that these laws will stimulate more ownership and carrying of guns, leading to adverse effects such as an increase in spur-of-the-moment shoot- ings in the wake of arguments or opportunistic criminal acts, increased carrying and quicker use of guns by criminals, more opportunities for theft of guns, thereby moving more legally owned guns into the hands of criminals, and more acci- dental killings and gun suicides. However, a pathbreaking article by John Lott and David Mustard in 1997 and a subsequent book by Lott have made the case that opportunistic crime should fall for everyone as criminals ponder whether This chapter draws freely on the work done in Ayres and Donohue (1999) and (forthcoming) and has profited from the outstanding research assistance of Matt Spiegelman, Emily Ryo, Melissa Ohsfeldt, Jennifer Chang, David Powell, and Nasser Zakariya. I am grateful for comments from John Lott, David Mustard, Willard Manning, and other participants in the Brookings Conference on Gun Violence.
    [Show full text]