The feasibility of voluntary evacuation of settlers living east to the security barrier prior to an agreement
Findings of the 2013 survey
Blue White Future The Macro Center for Political Economics
February 2014
Contents
Foreword – Methodology of the survey 2 Page | 1 Survey questionnaire 3 Findings 1. Voluntary evacuation prior to an agreement Figure 1.1: Willingness to evacuate voluntarily 5 Figure 1.2: Willingness to evacuate voluntarily – by areas of living 5 Figure 1.3: Willingness to evacuate voluntarily – by quality of life 6 Figure 1.4: Willingness to evacuate voluntarily – by age 6 Figure 1.5: Willingness to evacuate voluntarily – by religious 7 affiliation 2. Evacuation following an agreement Figure 2.1: Willingness to evacuate following an agreement 8 Figure 2.2: Willingness to evacuate – by areas of living 8 Figure 2.3: Willingness to evacuate – by quality of life 9 Figure 2.4: Willingness to evacuate – by religious affiliation 9 3. Motivation factors for willingness to evacuate Figure 3.1: Motivation factors for willingness to evacuate 10 Figure 3.2: Motivation factors for willingness to evacuate – among 10 those willing to evacuate voluntarily prior to an agreement Figure 3.3: Motivation factors for willingness to evacuate – by 11 gender Figure 3.4: Motivation factors for willingness to evacuate – by age 12 4. Legitimacy of decision making mechanisms Figure 4.1: Legitimacy of decision making mechanisms on an 14 agreement and evacuation of settlers 5. Preferred areas for absorption in Israel Figure 5.1: Preferred areas for absorption in Israel: Within the 15 Green Line vs. settlement blocks – by willingness to evacuate prior to/following an agreement Figure 5.2: Preferred areas for absorption within the Green Line – 15 by willingness to evacuate prior to/following an agreement Figure 5.3: Preferred areas for absorption with increased 16 compensation for resettling in the Galilee or the Negev 6. Future of one’s settlement following an agreement Figure 6.1: Future of one’s settlement following an agreement 17 Figures 6.2: Future of one’s settlement following an agreement – 17 by level of willingness to evacuate voluntarily prior to an agreement
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Foreword
Methodology of the survey Page | 2
The survey, which was conducted in August 2013, is the third survey in a detailed study conducted by the Macro Center for Political Economics on the subject of settlers’ willingness to evacuate. The first survey was conducted in April 2008, and the second was conducted in January 2012.
Survey Population The population sampled in the three surveys comprises settlers living in communities east of the security barrier, based on the assumption that the settlement blocks (which are west of the barrier) will stay under Israeli sovereignty, as reflected in various international parameters. The survey population does not include outposts residents, as outposts are not recognized by the state and their residents are registered as residents in other municipalities.
Sample Size The first survey (2008) sampled 698 individuals, with a 3.9% sampling error. The second survey (2012) sampled 1,007 individuals, with a 3.1% sampling error. Before the survey was conducted, three focus groups were conducted. The last survey sampled 501 individuals, with a 4.5% sampling error.
Survey Methodology Survey questions (see the next page) were formulated by Macro Center staff. Data collection for all three of the surveys was conducted by telephone (except for the focus groups) by various companies: 2008 – Smith Consulting and Research Ltd, 2012 – Dahaf Institute, 2013 – Midgam (the last two led by Dr. Mina Tzemach). Data analysis was conducted by the Macro Center. Survey findings in this booklet are compared with data from previous surveys and were found similar within the sampling error for all of the questions.
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The questionnaire
Page | 3 Suppose that in the next few months the Israeli government approaches the residents in your settlement and explains that in order to prepare for the possibility of evacuating settlements in case of a peace agreement, it is offering residents the option to voluntary move to a settlement blocks which will stay within Israel’s border or to a community within the Green Line. Residents will receive compensation which will allow suitable alternative housing, what is the probability that you will agree to move in such conditions? 1. Certain I will agree 2. Think I will agree 3. Think I will not agree 4. Certain I will not agree
There are several decision-making mechanisms for significant political decisions. Please note for each of the following mechanisms if it is legitimate or not (for each of the options the answers are: (1) Certain the decision is legitimate; (2) Think the decision is legitimate; (3) Think the decision is illegitimate; (4) Certain the decision is illegitimate): 1. A simple majority in the Knesset 2. A supermajority in the Knesset (at least 70 MKs) 3. A majority in a referendum 4. A supermajority in a referendum (60%) 5. Knesset elections on the issue
If a political agreement with the Palestinians is approved in a mechanism you believe is legitimate, and your settlement will not remain in Israeli sovereignty, will you (your family) be willing to evacuate in return for compensation? 1. Certain I will agree 2. Think I will agree 3. Think I will not agree 4. Certain I will not agree
Can each of the following factors motivate your willingness to move from your settlement? (for each of the options the answers are: (1) Certain it will motivate; (2) Think it will motivate; (3) Think it will not motivate; (4) Certain it will not motivate) 1. The option to move the entire settlement to the settlements blocks, to the Negev or to the Galilee 2. Suitable compensation 3. Suitable employment or vocational training for you and your spouse 4. A peace agreement you can trust 5. Psychological guidance and a support system for children 6. A government decision to freeze construction in the settlements 7. Wanting to be away from radical factions 8. Security instability in Judea and Samaria
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Would you prefer to live within the Green Line or in the settlement blocks in Judea and Samaria that will stay in Israel’s borders? (Sample: those who answered that certainly/think would agree to evacuate prior to/following an agreement) Page | 4 1. Within the Green Line 2. In the settlement blocks
To which area within the Green Line would you prefer to move? (Sample: those who preferred absorption within the green line)
If settlers who move to the Galilee or Negev receive higher compensation than settlers moving to other areas, where would you prefer to move? 1. Galilee or Negev 2. An area in Israel’s center or Jerusalem 3. The settlement blocks
If a political agreement is signed with the Palestinians in 5 years, what do you think is most likely to happen to your settlement? 1. The settlement will be evacuated, residents will receive compensation and move to various communities 2. The entire settlement will be moved to a territory within Israel’s borders 3. The settlement will not be evacuated and will continue to exist under the Palestinian Authority 4. The settlement will be annexed to Israel
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Findings
Page | 5 1. Voluntary evacuation
Figure 1.1 Willingness to evacuate voluntarily prior to an agreement
51.1% Think I will agree 5.4% Certain I will agree 13.4% Think I will not agree 14.8% Certain I will not agree 15.4% Other total 1282%
" 38.2%
Figure 1.2 Willingness for voluntary evacuation prior to an agreement, by areas of living
1382%
3183% 17.7%
13.8% Think I will agree
12% 2.81% Certain I will agree
10.3% 25.4% 12.2% 18.8%
7.8% 9.1%
Ariel Jordan Valley Judea Samaria
Samaria: Binyamin regional council, Shomron regional council, Beit El Judea: Har Hevron regional council, Gush Etzion regional council, Kiryat Arba Jordan Valley: Jordan Valley regional council, Megilot regional council, Ma’ale Efraim
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Figure 1.3 Willingness to evacuate voluntarily prior to Page | 6 an agreement, by quality of life*
3283%
14.5%
1281%
Think I will agree 22.8% 1382% Certain I will agree 45.8% 2.83% 13.9% 8.1% 18.4% 12.9% 11.5%
Low quality of life Not so high Relatively high Very high quality quality of life quality of life of life
* Quality of life – by self-evaluation
Figure 1.4 Willingness to evacuate voluntarily prior to an agreement, by age
46.5%
19.2% 3281% 1.8.% 3282% Think I will agree 12.2% 14.1% 15.6% Certain I will agree
27.3% 2281% 18.6% 17.1% 6.8% 14.3% 3.4% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
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Figure 1.5 Willingness to evacuate voluntarily prior to Page | 7 an agreement, by religious affiliation
1381%
3383% 19.6%
13.8% Think I will agree 1181% Certain I will agree 15.1% 2183% 25.8% 21.7% 8.0%
7.3% 4.6% Ultra-orthodox Religious Traditional Secular
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2. Evacuation following an agreement (The data in this chapter includes those who are willing to evacuate Page | 8 voluntarily prior to an agreement)
Figure 2.1 Willingness to evacuate following and agreement
28.8%
11.3% 11.1% Certain I will agree Think I will agree Think I will not agree 24.5% 24.3% Certain I will not agree Other
1282%
Figure 2.2 Willingness to evacuate following an agreement by areas of living
37%
3183% 30.1%
21.3% 3383% 3283% Think I will agree Certain I will agree 22.6% 23.9% 36.9% 31.3% 12.6% 15.9%
Ariel Jordan Valley Judea Samaria
Samaria: Binyamin regional council, Shomron regional council, Beit El Judea: Har Hevron regional council, Gush Etzion regional council, Kiryat Arba Jordan Valley: Jordan Valley regional council, Megilot regional council, Ma’ale Efraim
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Figure 2.3 Willingness to evacuate following an agreement Page | 9 by quality of life*
3783%
14.5% 32% 1.83%
1282% 36.0% 25.6% Think I will agree 19.6% Certain I will agree 52.8%
22.0% 23.9% 20.5%
Low quality of life Not so high Relatively high Very high quality quality of life quality of life of life
* Quality of life – by self-evaluation
Figure 2.4 Willingness to evacuate following an agreement by religious affiliation
32%
338.% 28.2%
23.0% Think I will agree 3381% Certain I will agree 1.83%
15.1% 23.2% 39.8% 30.9%
14.2% 10.0%
Ultra-Orthodox Religious Traditional Secular
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3. Motivation factors for willingness to evacuate Among the entire sample Page | 10
Figure 3.1 Motivation factors for willingness to evacuate
Suitable Compensation 22.0% 20.6% 1183%
Suitable employment or vocational training 19.8% 15.8% 3383% A peace agreement you can trust 17.6% 14.0% 3283%
Psychological support for the children 13.3% 13.1% 1381% Desire to keep away from radicals 13.6% 9.8% 1182%
Communal settlement evacuation 7.4% 15.9% 1381%
Security instability in the West Bank 9.4% 12.4% 1383% A government decision on construction freezing 3.4%2.6% 3%
Certain that will motivate Think that will motivate
Figures 3.2 Motivation factors among those willing to evacuate voluntarily prior to an agreement
Certain that will motivate Figure 3.2(a) Suitable Compensation Think that will motivate .282% 2383% Each figure shows how many 27.9% 42.6% respondents of those who were willing to 62.2% evacuate voluntarily also found a certain 42.7% motivation as contributing to their motivation to evacuate Certain I will agree Think I will agree Think that will motivate Certain that will motivate
Figure 3.2(b) Figure 3.2(c) Suitable employment or A peace agreement you vocational training can trust 3287% 3383% 3287% 11.6% 3287% 28.5% 12.9% 29.8% 57.1% 36.8% 48.8% 38.9%
Certain I will agree Think I will agree Certain I will agree Think I will agree Think that will motivate Think that will motivate Certain that will motivate Certain that will motivate
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Figure 3.2(d) Figure 3.2(e) Desire to keep away Security instability in from radicals the West Bank Page | 11 3182% 3181% 9.8% 15.6% 3183% 338.% 19.6% 23.0% 44.3% 36.6% 15.0% 12.9%
Certain I will agree Think I will agree Certain I will agree Think I will agree Think that will motivate Think that will motivate Certain that will motivate Certain that will motivate
Figures 3.3: Motivation factors for willingness to evacuate, by gender
Figure 3.3(a) Suitable Compensation Certain that will motivate Think that will motivate 1382% 1283%
19.0% 21.6%
26.8% 19.0%
Male Female Think that will motivate Certain that will motivate
Figure 3.3(b) Figure 3.3(c) Suitable employment or A peace agreement you vocational training can trust 3787% 33% 33% 14.7% 1.82% 16.5% 14.7% 13.9%
23.0% 21.3% 18.5% 15.2%
Male Female Male Female
Think that will motivate Think that will motivate Certain that will motivate Certain that will motivate
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Figure 3.3(d) Figure 3.3(e) Desire to keep away Security instability in from radicals the West Bank Page | 12
1782% 1382% 1287% 12.1% 16.3% 8.4% 2381% 6.0% 15.7% 12.3% 10.5% 7.2%
Male Female Male Female
Think that will motivate Think that will motivate Certain that will motivate Certain that will motivate
Figures 3.4: Motivation factors for willingness to evacuate, by age
Figure 3.4(a) Figure 3.4(b) Suitable Compensation Suitable employment or vocational training 31% 3281% 1787% 1181% 3.83% 22.0% 21.4% 3.83% 14.7% 3187% 3282% 3387% 14.9% 16.6% 18.7% 13.4% 1381% 25.9% 22.9% 29.2% 30.6% 33.0% 29.5% 13.6% 22.7% 20.9% 20.3% 8.8% 8.2% 9.6% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
Think that will motivate Think that will motivate Certain that will motivate Certain that will motivate
Figure 3.4(c) Figure 3.3(c) Psychological support A peace agreement you for chidren can trust
1383% 3.81% 3.81% 3183% 3281% 16.9% 1382% 19.7% 1382% 13% 15.3% 1282% 12.2% 2783% 8.0% 10.9% 17.7% 14.1% 13.7% 8.8% 26.6% 19.5% 20.4% 23.4% 23.9% 12.9% 6.4% 8.8% 9.1% 11.9% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ Think that will motivate Think that will motivate Certain that will motivate Certain that will motivate
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Figure 3.4(e) Figure 3.4(f) Desire to keep away Security instability in from radicals the West Bank Page | 13 3382% 3382% 9.2% 1181% 1387% 1283% 1183% 13.4% 2781% 2.83% 6.8% 9.5% 15.1% 2382% 15.2% 10.1% 12.1% 26.9% 2281% 17.4% 20.4% 4.1% 16.2% 11.3% 13.2% 7.3% 7.4% 7.3% 7.3% 1.8% 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+ 18-29 30-39 40-49 50-59 60+
Think that will motivate Think that will motivate Certain that will motivate Certain that will motivate
Certain that will motivate Think that will motivate
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4. Legitimacy of decision making mechanisms
Page | 14
Figure 4.1 Legitimacy of decision making mechanisms on an agreement and evacuation of settlers
3187%
1181% 24.2% 3283% 19.0% 3381% 32% 21.2% 14.8% 15.6%
30.5% 25.2% 18.4% 17.4% 14.4%
A majority in a A super-majority in A super-majority in Knesset elections A simple majority in referendum a referendum the Knesset (70 on the agreement the Knesset (60%) MKs)
Certain the decision is legitimate Think the decision is legitimate
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5. Preferred areas for absorption in Israel Page | 15
Figure 5.1 Preferred areas for absorption in Israel
Willing to evacuate voluntarily prior to an 74.6% 25.4% agreement
Willing to evacuate only following an 44.9% 55.1% agreement
Within the "Green Line" Settlement blocks that will be annexed accotrding to an agreement
Figure 5.2 Preferred area for absorption within the “Green Line” *
3.3% 4.7% Willing to evacuate voluntarily prior to an 11.5% 8.1% 48.6% 4.5% 19.3% agreement
3.9% Willing to evacuate only following to an 10.7%8.3% 40.2% 8.3% 6.0% 22.7% agreement
Jerusalem Jerusalem's vicinity Center Negev Haifa and vicinity Galilee other
* “other” includes those who refused to answer
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Figure 5.3: Preferred areas of absorption with increased compensation for resettling in the Galilee or the Negev Page | 16
4.9% Willing to evacuate voluntarily prior to an 43.8% 41.0% 10.3% agreement
Willing to evacuate only following to an 45.5% 22.5% 11.8% 20.2% agreement
Galilee or Negev An area in Israel's center or Jerusalem The settlement blocks Other
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6. Future of one’s settlement following an agreement
Page | 17
Figure 6.1: Future of one’s settlement following an agreement
Evacuation of settlement, residents will receive compensation and move to various communities The entire settlement will be 18.0% 21.4% moved within Israel’s borders
6.5% The settlement will continue 6.5% to exist under the Palestinian Authority 47.6% The settlement will be annexed to Israel
Other
Figure 6.2(a): Among those Figure 6.2(b): Among those willing to evacuate voluntarily williing to evacuate following prior to an agreement an agreement or prior to one
10.3% 11.0% 38.7% 34.6%
36.9% 40.0%
6.7% 7.4% 7.4%
7.0%
Evacuation of settlement, residents will The settlement will continue to exist receive compensation and move to various under the Palestinian Authority communities The settlement will be annexed to Israel The entire settlement will be moved Other within Israel’s borders
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