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PICES SCIENTIFIC REPORT No. 22 2002 PICES SCIENTIFIC REPORT No. 22 2002 PICES Science: The first ten years and a look to the future PICES Scientific Report No. 22 2002 PICES Science: The first ten years and a look to the future Edited by R. Ian Perry, Patricia Livingston and Alexander S. Bychkov August 2002 Secretariat / Publisher North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES) c/o Institute of Ocean Sciences, P.O. Box 6000, Sidney, B.C., Canada. V8L 4B2 E-mail: [email protected] Home Page: http://www.pices.int TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Introduction................................................................................................................................................. 1 Warren S. Wooster. PICES - the first decade, and beyond ....................................................................... 5 Paul H. LeBlond. The Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee: The first decade .................... 13 D.E. Harrison and Neville Smith. Ocean observing systems and prediction - the next ten years .......... 19 Tsutomu Ikeda and Patricia A. Wheeler. Ocean impacts from the bottom of the food web to the top: Biological Oceanography Committee (BIO) retrospective....................................................... 25 Timothy R. Parsons. Future needs for biological oceanographic studies in the Pacific Ocean.............. 35 Douglas E. Hay, Richard J. Beamish, George W. Boehlert, Vladimir I. Radchenko, Qi-Sheng Tang, Tokio Wada, Daniel W. Ware and Chang-Ik Zhang. Ten years FIS in PICES: An introspective, retrospective, critical and constructive review of fishery science in PICES .................. 43 Richard F. Addison, John E. Stein and Alexander V. Tkalin. Marine Environmental Committee in review................................................................................................................................... 55 Robie W. Macdonald, Brian Morton, Richard F. Addison and Sophia C. Johannessen. Marine environmental contaminant issues in the North Pacific: What are the dangers and how do we identify them?........................................................................................................................... 61 R. Ian Perry, Anne B. Hollowed and Takashige Sugimoto. The PICES Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program: Why, how, and what next?........................................................................... 87 List of acronyms...................................................................................................................................... 101 INTRODUCTION R. Ian Perry1 and Patricia Livingston2 1 Pacific Biological Station, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Nanaimo, B.C., Canada V9R 5K6. E-mail: [email protected] 2 Alaska Fisheries Science Center, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115, U.S.A. E-mail: [email protected] The North Pacific Marine Science Organization accomplishments of their Committees, and to look (PICES) celebrated its tenth anniversary in 2001. forward to critical issues and concerns for the To mark this occasion, the Science Board topic future. Each of these “disciplinary” presentations was chosen as “Ten years of PICES science: was followed by an invited presentation, often by Decadal-scale scientific progress and prognosis for someone not normally associated with PICES, a regime shift in scientific approach”. This which took a broad view of the grand themes, symposium was held on October 8, 2001, at the issues and challenges facing that discipline. This opening of the Tenth Annual Meeting of PICES, format provides an interesting dialogue between in Victoria, Canada. Nine papers were presented where PICES is now and how it got here, and during this session, eight of which are included in where it could/should go in the future. this volume. In the first paper Warren S. Wooster, as one of the The symposium was designed as a celebration and principal founders of PICES and its first reflection on the first ten years of scientific Chairman, provides an overall history of the progress by PICES, and to provide a look to the events leading to the formation of the organization future of the marine sciences in the North Pacific. and its major accomplishments. He also suggests Current or recent Chairmen of the Scientific future extensions of PICES’ role in the North Committees of PICES (see Figure 1 for a diagram Pacific, including possibly providing more specific of the organizational structure of PICES) were information or advice to policy makers on the state invited to review the history and major of the North Pacific Ocean. Governing Council Secretariat F & A Science Board BIO FIS WG 11 WG 14 MBM WG 3 WG 16 MEQ POC WG 2 WG 8 WG 15 WG 1 WG 7 WG 10 WG 13 WG 17 NPDB TCODE CCCC BASS MODEL IFEP MONITOR REX CPR WG 4 WG 5 WG 6 WG 9 Fig. 1 Organizational chart of North Pacific Marine Science Organization (PICES). Boxes in grey indicate disbanded groups. Paul H. LeBlond reviews the history of the environmental quality problems. This paper is Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee followed by Macdonald et al., who present a very (POC), and comments on POC’s potential role in thorough review of the stresses on the North developing marine operational modelling. D. E. Pacific marine system, how these should be Harrison and Neville Smith provide a studied, and how PICES might contribute to their complementary view on the significance and study and to understanding their significance. importance of the future of ocean prediction and forecasts. The final paper in this symposium (and in this volume) is by Perry et al., who examine the Tsutomu Ikeda and Patricia A. Wheeler review the history, objectives, accomplishments and problems history of the Biological Oceanography of the primary inter-disciplinary program of Committee (BIO). They distil three primary PICES, the Climate Change and Carrying themes from the past ten years of PICES activities Capacity (CCCC) Program. This program was in biological oceanography: (1) regional and designed and implemented to bridge across the basin-scale comparisons of lower and upper four “disciplinary” committees of PICES, and to trophic levels; (2) the importance of life history specifically engage and consciously involve strategies, alternate food webs, and understudied physical and biological oceanographers, fishery groups of organisms; and (3) the roles of trace scientists and, though to a lesser extent, marine metals and biogeochemical cycling. The environmental quality scientists in an integrated “independent” broad overview is presented by program to study one of the major drivers of Timothy R. Parsons, who provides a critical and change in the North Pacific: climate change. thought-provoking commentary on the maturity of biological oceanography as a branch of the marine A map of the PICES area (Fig. 2) identifies key sciences, and what is needed to help it to mature. geographic features and locations mentioned in the papers included in this volume. In addition, an Douglas E. Hay et al. have written a critical Appendix at the end of the volume deciphers the review of the role played by the Fishery Science numerous acronyms referred to in these papers. Committee (FIS) in helping to understand changes in fish populations in the North Pacific. They conclude that while the FIS Committee has done an excellent job at facilitating communication of fisheries science around the Pacific, its contribution to initiating collaborative scientific projects regarding the health of fisheries and mechanisms affecting the abundance of living marine resources has been more marginal. Hay et al. discuss a theme that is repeated in a number of the presentations from the Scientific Committees: that some committees have concentrated on enhancing communication of science (for example Fig. 2 Sub-regions in the PICES area (north of through symposia at the PICES Annual Meetings), 30°N and including the marginal seas) of the whereas others have also emphasized developing North Pacific Ocean. ASK - Gulf of Alaska new collaborative scientific activities. Continental Shelf; BSC - Bering Sea Continental Shelf; BSP - Bering Sea Pelagic; CAN – One committee, which has focussed on the latter California Current North; CAS – California aspect (while not ignoring the former), is the Current South; ECS - East China Sea; ESA - Marine Environmental Quality Committee (MEQ). Eastern Subarctic; ETZ - Eastern Tropical Zone; Richard F. Addison et al. describe the events KM/KL - Kurile Islands Region; KR/OY - leading to their hosting of a practical workshop on Kuroshio/Oyashio Region; OKH - Sea of Okhotsk; comparisons and development of common JP - Sea of Japan; WSA - Western Subarctic; assessment methodologies for marine WTZ - Western Tropical Zone. The accomplishments and products from PICES as evidenced by the many reports of PICES research activities are still being produced, and Working Groups and multi-authored papers cited many more have yet to appear. PICES has in the reviews in this volume. The challenge for recently been very successful at publishing the PICES in the next decade is to move beyond a papers presented in the many symposia and focus on scientific communications into a defining sessions during its Annual Meetings in special role of the principal scientific issues in the North volumes or sections of established scientific Pacific, and perhaps into providing consensus journals. This has greatly helped the scientific advice on critical marine problems dissemination of “PICES science”, and the marine facing the nations of the North Pacific. If the past
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