Future Earth Initial Design 1 This report sets out the initial design of Future Earth, comprising a research framework and governance structure, preliminary reflections on communication and engagement, capacity-building and education strategies, and implementation guidelines. It was developed by the Future Earth Transition Team, a group of more than 30 researchers and experts from many countries and representative of the natural sciences, social sciences, and humanities, as well as from international organisations, research funders and business. and dis ciplines. We learned a lot from each other over the two years of discussion. Steven Wilson and Deliang Chen, the current and for- mer Executive Directors of ICSU, were critical to the success of this project, travelling the world to ensure its success, and we are also Preface particularly grateful to Heide Hackmann, Executive Director of ISSC, who provided a sustained representation of the social science community throughout our work. We are particularly thankful for the con- structive engagement and invaluable contri- butions of the current leadership of the Global Environmental Change (GEC) programmes and their associated projects (the Internation- The transition to Future Earth has been a com- al Geosphere and Biosphere Programme, IBGP; plex, difficult and inspiring task — trying to the International Human Dimensions Pro- capture the urgency, seriousness and breadth gramme, IHDP; the World Climate Research of the future of our planet and its inhabitants, Programme, WCRP; DIVERSITAS – biodiversi- engaging a broad international community ty science; and the Earth System Science Part- of scientists, and building on the decades of nership, ESSP). Without the strong engage- research and collaboration that have already ment from GEC programme directors, chairs made important contributions to our under- of science committees and project leaders, standing. We were humbled when Future Earth Future Earth would not have emerged with was included as one of the commitments that such a strong potential for global scientific science and the research community made to engagement and scientific integration. The the world at Rio+20. staff, science committees and project offices of We wish to sincerely thank the many the current GEC projects provided important people and organisations that contributed to insights into the process and we hope that this this report and the work of the Transition report reflects their hopes and concerns. Team. Foremost are the staff of ICSU and the The Transition Team emerged as a result Belmont Forum who organized our meetings, of the ICSU visioning process on Earth system phone conferences, and helped to draft the research for global sustainability and the stra- report — most especially our Science Officer tegic dialogues on future research priorities Roberta Quadrelli, but also Anne Sophie Ste- developed by the Belmont Forum. We would, vance, Vivien Lee, Rohini Rao, Peter Bates, apart from the Belmont Forum, like to thank the Owen Gaffney, Leah Goldfarb, Maureen Bren- Task team that led the ICSU visioning process, nan, David Allen, Carthage Smith, Maria including Walt Reid (co-chair), Anne Whyte, Uhle, Andrew Wei-Chih Yang, Gisbert Glaser, Heide Hackmann, Kari Raivio, John Schellnhu- and Denise Young. We are also very grateful ber, Elinor Ostrom, Khotso Mokhele, Yuan Tse to the members of the Transition Team who Lee, and Deliang Chen, who laid the foundation volun teered their time and energy to create for the work of the Transition Team. this report and to participate in consultations With tasks that include solving some of the and presentations around the world. We are most urgent challenges facing our society, the especially grateful to the working group lead- Transition Team struggled with identifying ers Martin Visbeck and Karen O’ Brien, Rik priorities, themes and governance structures. Leemans and Peter Liss, and Rohan D’ Souza This report reflects both consensus and com- who drafted sections of the report and to other promise, and responds to inputs from many members of the Executive Group — Joseph different constituencies. It is the start of what Alcamo, Gretchen Kalonji, Tim Killeen, Jakob should be a step change in international col- Rhyner, Albert van Jaarsveld, Patrick Monfray, laboration in the service of all people on our and Paul Rouse — who guided our work over the planet — a major new effort to further raise our last two years. We are also grateful to specia- understanding of the dynamics of the Earth list advice from Roberta Balstad and Roberta system, provide new knowledge and solutions Johnson (for input on the data and education for human prosperity and global sustainabil- sections respectively). The Transition Team ity, and identify transformations that create a was selected in the spirit of co-design of a new better future for humankind. research agenda, and thus included research- ers, funders and private and public sector Johan Rockström and Diana Liverman stakeholders from many different countries Co-chairs, the Transition Team for Future Earth 4 Preface . 5 7 Towards the implementation of Future Earth . 66 Executive Summary . 8 7 1. Initial roadmap and main priorities . 66 7 .2 The implementation process . 67 1 Overview . .. 17 7 .2 1. Transition of existing core projects into Future Earth . 68 1 1. Why Future Earth? . 17 7 .2 .2 Developing new projects. 68 1 .2 What is Future Earth? . 19 1 .3 What is the added value of Future Earth? . 21 Glossary . 69 1 .4 Key principles of Future Earth research and governance . 22 References . 70 1 .4 1. Building Future Earth’s approach to co-design . 22 1 .4 .2 Future Earth major stakeholder groups . 24 1 .5 The Science and Technology Alliance for Global Sustainability . 26 Annexes . 73 Annex 1 Initial design phase overview . 75 2 Research framework . 27 A 1 1. Composition and mandate of the Transition Team. 75 2 1. A conceptual framework for Future Earth . 27 A 1 .2 Initial design as a consultative process . 77 Overall framing . 27 2 .2 Initial Research Agenda . 28 Annex 2 Future Earth and the follow up to Rio+20 UN Conference Introduction . 28 on Sustainable Development . 78 2 .2 1. Research themes . 29 Theme 1: Dynamic Planet . 31 Annex 3 Roles of the different governing bodies . 79 Theme 2: Global Development . 33 A 3 1. Future Earth Governing Council . 79 Theme 3: Transformations towards Sustainability . .. 36 A 3 .2 Future Earth Science Committee . 80 2 .2 .2 Cross-cutting capabilities . 40 A 3 .3 Future Earth Engagement Committee . 81 Observing systems . 40 A 3 .4 Future Earth Executive Secretariat . 82 Data systems . 41 Earth system modelling. 41 Annex 4 Future Earth data and information . 84 Theory development . 41 A 4 1. Data and information as a strategic component of the Earth system science . 84 3 Organisational design . 43 A 4 .2 Why are data critical in Future Earth? . 85 3 1. Governance structure . 43 A 4 .3 What kinds of data will be used and produced in 3 .2 Future Earth research themes and projects . 47 Future Earth? . 86 3 .2 1. Leadership and scientific coordination of individual A 4 .4 Data policies — the ICSU experience with international research themes . 47 programmes . 88 3 .2 .2 Interface with stakeholders . 47 A 4 .5 Links with international Observing Systems, GEOSS, 3 .3 Linking global and regional scales . 48 and government observing and statistical programmes . 90 3 .3 1. Roles of national committees . 48 A 4 .6 Roles for data centres and the World Data System . 90 3 .3 .2 Supporting national engagement . 49 A 4 7. Data issues for Future Earth . 91 3 .3 .3 Regional nodes . 49 A 4 .8 Summary of data recommendations for Future Earth . 92 3 .3 .4 Scoping, Synthesis and science for policy . 49 3 .4 Mechanisms to develop the research framework . 51 Annex 5 Five work packages for the implementation of Future Earth 3 .4 1. Guidelines for defining research themes, priorities and projects . 51 during the transition period . 94 3 .5 Mechanisms to monitor and evaluate progress . 52 WP 1 Future Earth initial design: developing the research framework, institutional design options and outreach strategy 4 Towards a communication and engagement strategy . 53 (this is the work of the Transition Team, reported in this document) . 94 4 1 . Vision . 53 WP 2 Transition approach: ensuring that the fundamentals are in place . 94 4 .2 The rationale for stakeholder engagement . 53 WP 3 Funding: securing the funding necessary for the transition 4 .3 Three principles of Future Earth stakeholder engagement . 54 phase and the initial operations phase; planning funding for 4 .4 Developing the strategy . .. 54 full operations . 94 4 .5 Action points for Future Earth communications WP 4 Governance: managing the transition to and engagement . 56 Future Earth governance . ..