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Asia/Pacific Research Center Stanford University ASIA/PACIFIC RESEARCH CENTER STANFORD UNIVERSITY 1999–2000 YEAR IN REVIEW http://APARC.stanford.edu C O N T E N T S MESSAGE FROM THE DIRECTOR 2 The Asia/Pacific Research Center (A/PARC) FO R U M S 6 is an important Stanford venue, where faculty and students, visiting RE S E A R C H 9 scholars, and distinguished business and government leaders meet and PU B L I C AT I O N S 19 exchange views on contemporary Asia and U.S. involvement in the regi o n . SPECIAL ESSAY SECTION: ENVISIONING ASIA 24 A/ P ARC res e a r ch results in seminars and confer ences, publi s h e d studies, THE “CALIFORNIA” AND “WAS H I N G T O N ” occasional papers, special reports, and books. A/PARC maintains an PERSPECTIVES active industrial affiliates and training program, involving more than —THOMAS P. ROHLEN twenty-five U.S. and Asian companies and public agencies. Members of CAN THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PAR TY RESCUE JAPAN ? A/PARC's faculty have held high-level posts in government and business. —DANIEL I. OKIMOTO Their interdisciplinary expertise gen e r ates res e a r ch of lasting signific a n c e IS PEACE COMING TO THE KOREAN PENINSULA? on economic, political, technological, strategic, and social issues. —H E N R Y S. ROWEN CH I N A ’S FOREIGN POLICY—SUCCESS? —MICHEL OKSENBERG AND SUSAN SHIRK CONFERENCES, SEMINARS, AND SPECIAL EVENTS 32 PR O G R A M S 44 TRAINING AND TEACHING 48 PE O P L E 54 FRIENDS OF THE ASIA/PACIFIC RESEARCH CENTER 61 http://APARC.stanford.edu November 1999 as assistant to Dan Okimoto, Jim Raphael, D e c e m b e r, the Shorenstein Forum brought together an and Tom Rohlen; Waka Takahashi arrived in January 2000 to impressive group of professionals and policymakers— assist me, Julian Chang, and Andy Walder with our adminis- including Guy Kawasaki, CEO of Garage.com, and the M E S SAGE FROM THE DI R E CTOR trative and research work. In March, Rafael Ulate began work Honorable Chan Heng Chee, Singapore’s ambassador to the with Rafiq Dossani and Marguerite Gong Hancock on their United States—to discuss the impact of the Internet in Asia, (respective) South Asia and Silicon Valley Networks research and the challenges and opportunities that California entrepre- projects. In September, Stephanie Manning and Jody Kloczkowski came on board to round out the A/PARC team. Stephanie will assist Don Emmerson and Russ Hancock with ASIA (MOSTLY) RECOVERS FROM Revolution of 1966–69. He has published widely on these the Southeast Asia and Shorenstein forums, while Jody will THE CRISIS subjects, and we look forward to the historical and sociolog- keep all of A/PARC running smoothly as its new staff assis- ical perspective, not to mention the dry humor, that he will tant. A warm welcome to all of A/PARC’s new faces. bring to the Center over the coming years. t is tricky to identify the most important political events Another “new” yet familiar face at A/PARC this year is Isoon after they have occurred. Historians have a way of NOTABLE EVENTS AND VISITORS Jean Oi, who joins us as a member of the faculty executive looking back and finding seminal events that were over- Benny Hu, president of committee. The director of Stanford’s Center for East Asian Among its many other regions of interest, the Center continues Taiwan’s China looked at the time. That said, three especially important Studies (CEAS) and a professor in the political science to be extremely active in the area of South Asia, and the South Development Industrial events in 1999–2000 were (1) the unprecedented summit Bank, addresses the CEO department—both roles in which she will continue—Jean has Asia Initiative—a Stanford-wide program which A/ PA R C meeting between the leaders of South and North Korea; (2) and Minister Forum. in the past been a frequent visitor to the Center, particularly administers—has gathered steam over the past year. The initia- the election, for the first time, of a non-KMT party member for events jointly sponsored by A/PARC and CEAS. Her ti v e ’ s focus is teaching and research on South Asia across the as president of Taiwan; and (3) the eruption of ethnic vio- research focuses primarily on comparative and Chinese poli- Un i v e r s i t y , and A/ P ARC senior research scholar Rafiq Dossani lence and regional separatism in Indonesia. tics, and the political economy of reform in China at the continues to play a key role in its success. Dr. Dossani’s own Economically, 1999 and 2000 have been good years research—on electric power, telecommunications, and ven- throughout most of East and South Asia. The financial crisis ture-capital reform in India—has yielded impressive results of 1997–98 hit unevenly across the region, and although the over the past twelve months, and brought many influential vis- recovery has also been uneven, it has been widespread. The itors to the Center, including Pramod Mahajan, the Indian min- two largest economies—Japan and China—have been ister for information technology, and Shri Ram Vilas Paswan, neurs face as Asia adjusts to the new economy. The Center’s improving; India is experiencing moderate growth; South the Indian minister for telecommunications. annual Asia Briefing, a daylong symposium attended by our Korea has recovered strongly; and most of the larger countries In addition to the various brown-bag seminar series it many corporate affiliates, took place in early March. are doing tolerably well. Next year’s outlook is favorable. offers, A/PARC hosted a number of significant conferences Discussion centered on Asia’s continuing financial and polit- The main exceptions to this on the whole positive scene over the past year. In October 1999, the Center co-sponsored ical recovery, with particular emphasis on international trade are Indonesia and Pakistan. The latter has come, once again, the first annual Nikkei Global Management Forum in Tokyo, and China’s World Trade Organization (WTO) prospects. under military rule. Any hopes that this dictatorial regime which attracted hundreds of key business people, academics, Continuing the “global” bent of A/PARC’s 1999–2000 would introduce much-needed policy and institutional and decision makers from across Asia, the United States, and events, in May the Center’s Comparative Health Care Policy changes, never high to begin with, now are slim. Indonesia, Europe. The Nikkei Forum is now slated to become an annu- Research Project (together with Stanford’s Center for Health because of its vast size and location, is in a most worrying al event, with the second scheduled for October 2000. In Policy) organized a major conference on the evolution and condition. Weak government, ethnic violence, and separatist direction of health care markets. Stanford professor Alain movements in several parts of the country have emerged after Enthoven—who is widely recognized as the inventor of man- Suharto. The economy has made a partial recovery, but perceived aged care—keynoted the two-day event, which featured dis- political risks are holding down investments. The government tinguished speakers from Japan, the Netherlands, New of Abdurrahman Wahid faces a daunting set of challenges. village level. Her presence is certain to enrich both A/PARC’s Zealand, Scotland, and Singapore. Rounding out the year, in And, although the rest of the world might not be able to help June A/ PA R C ’ s Silicon Valley Networks Project hosted very much, it should be willing to try. ongoing research on China and the A/PARC community. A third addition to A/PARC’s growing family is Russell the CEO and Minister Forum on Innovation and Entrepreneurship in Asia. Luminaries such as Benny Hu, NEW APPOINTMENTS Hancock, who joined us earlier this year as director of the Shorenstein Forum. Russ has a distinguished background, president of the China Development Industrial Bank Here at A/PARC, there have been a number of important including degrees from Harvard and Stanford, and significant (Taiwan); Narayana Murthy, chairman and CEO of Infosys events over the past year. Primary among them is the appoint- experience in the private and policy sectors. Prior to joining (India); and recent Fortune magazine cover subject Steve ment of Andrew Walder as the Center’s new co-director, A/PARC, he was vice president of the Bay Area Council, a Jurvetson, managing director of Draper Fisher Jurvetson, dis- together with me, for 2000–01. Andy has of course con- privately funded organization dedicated to analysis and cussed rising regions of innovation around the world and the tributed to A/PARC’s activities for several years as a member action on regional policy issues. Bringing this experience to future of entrepreneurship in Asia. Many of this conference’s of its faculty executive committee, and we’re delighted that bear, Russ is off to a running start in developing the themes are also covered in the Silicon Valley Networks he has agreed to enlarge his involvement with the Center. An Shorenstein Forum—made possible by long-time A/PARC Project’s first book, The Silicon Valley Edge: A Habitat for Innovation and Entrepreneurship, edited by C h o n g - M o o n expert on the sources of stability and change in communist benefactor Walter H. Shorenstein—into a preeminent locus Walter H. Shorenstein with the Honorable Chan Heng Chee (left), regimes, and a professor in Stanford’s sociology department for scholarship on U.S.–Asian relations, with particular Singapore’s ambassador to the United States, and Yumiko Nishimura (right), Lee, William F.
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