Journal of the Transportation Research Forum: Volume 53, Number 3, Fall 2014
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Volume 53, Number 3 Fall 2014 Transportation Research Forum NDSU Dept. 2880 PO Box 6050 Fargo, ND 58108-6050 www.trforum.org Journal of the Transportation Research Forum The Transportation Research Forum, founded in 1958, is an independent, nonprofit organization of transportation professionals who conduct, use, and benefit from research. Its purpose is to provide an impartial meeting ground for carriers, shippers, government officials, consultants, university researchers, suppliers, and others seeking exchange of information and ideas related to both passenger and freight transportation. More information on the Transportation Research Forum can be found on the Web at www.trforum.org. General Editors: Michael W. Babcock, Kansas State University and Kofi Obeng, North Carolina A&T State University Book Review Editor: Jack S. Ventura, Surface Transportation Board Associate Editors: Richard Gritta, University of Portland; Robert Harrison, University of Texas; Kevin H. Horn, G.E.C. Inc.; Wesley Wilson, University of Oregon; Barry Prentice, University of Manitoba; Carl Scheraga, Fairfield University; John Bitzan, North Dakota State University; and Starr McMullen, Oregon State University. Disclaimer: The facts, opinions, and conclusions set forth in the articles contained herein are those of the authors and quotations should be so attributed. They do not necessarily represent the views and opinions of the Transportation Research Forum (TRF), nor can TRF assume any responsibility for the accuracy or validity of any of the information contained herein. Memberships/Subscriptions: Subscriptions and/or membership forms may be obtained from the following office or online. Copyright 2014 The Transportation Research Forum All Rights Reserved ISSN 1046-1469 Published and Distributed by Transportation Research Forum NDSU Dept. 2880 P.O. Box 6050 Fargo, ND 58108-6050 P: (701) 231-7766 • F: (701) 231-1945 or apply online at www.trforum.org Journal of the Transportation Research Forum Volume 53, Number 3 • Fall 2014 Table of Contents A Message from the JTRF Co-General Editors 3 Kofi Obeng and Michael W. Babcock ARTICLES Optimizing Strategic Allocation of Vehicles for One-Way Car-sharing Systems Under Demand Uncertainty 7 Wei (David) Fan Measuring Performance at a Large Metropolitan Area: The Case of the DC (District of Columbia) Metroplex 21 Tony Diana Determinants of Per Capita Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): The Case of California 35 Mintesnot Woldeamanuel and Andrew Kent The Magnitudes of Economic and Non-Economic Factors on the Demand for U.S. Domestic Air Travel 47 Ju Dong Park and Won W. Koo Forecast of CO2 Emissions From the U.S. Transportation Sector: Estimation From a Double Exponential Smoothing Model 63 Jaesung Choi, David C. Roberts, and Eunsu Lee State Variation in Railroad Wheat Rates 83 Michael W. Babcock, Matthew McKamey, and Phillip Gayle Factors Contributing to Police Attendance at Motor Vehicle Crash Scenes 101 Richard Tay, Lina Kattan, and Yuan Bai BOOK REVIEW On the cover: Ju Dong Park and Won W. Koo identify the economic and non-economic factors that affect U.S. air travel in “The Magnitudes of Economic and Non-Economic Factors on the Demand for U.S. Domestic Air Travel.” The authors find that airfare, income, seasonality, and mergers play significant roles in the demand for airline passenger travel. 1 BOOK REVIEWS American Railroads: Decline and Renaissance in the Twentieth Century 117 Francis P. Mulvey City Distribution and Urban Freight Transport: Multiple Perspectives 121 Anthony M. Pagano Transportation Research Forum 123 Statement of Purpose 123 History and Organization 123 Annual Meetings 124 TRF Council 125 TRF Foundation Officers 125 Past Presidents 126 Recipients of the TRF Distinguished Transportation Researcher Award 126 Recipients of the Herbert O. Whitten TRF Service Award 126 Past Editors of JTRF 127 Recipients of the TRF Best Paper Award 127 Guidelines for Manuscript Submission 129 2 A Message from the JTRF Co-General Editors The fall 2014 issue of JTRF contains articles covering a broad range of topics. They are: • Optimizing Strategic Allocation of Vehicles for One-Way Car-sharing Systems Under Demand Uncertainty • Measuring Performance at a Large Metropolitan Area: The Case of the DC (District of Columbia) Metroplex • Determinants of Per Capita Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT): The Case of California • The Magnitudes of Economic and Non-Economic Factors in the Demand for U.S. Domestic Air Travel • Forecast of C02 Emissions From the U.S. Transportation Sector: Estimation from a Double Exponential Smoothing Model • State Variation in Railroad Wheat Rates • Factors Contributing to Police Attendance at Motor Vehicle Crash Scenes. The first article is by Wei Fan and it is titled “Optimizing Strategic Allocation of Vehicles for One-way Car-sharing Systems Under Demand Uncertainty.” Fan’s focus is on making car- sharing programs sustainable. To do so he develops a multistage stochastic optimization model to study the strategic allocation of car-sharing vehicles (OSCAV) in one-way car-sharing programs. His approach, involving a multistage linear programming model, is validated using “a seven-stage experimental network” with four car-sharing locations. According to Fan the validation provides high quality solutions suggesting that his proposed models can be used in real world applications. In the second paper, Tony Diana studies the performance of the airports in Washington DC, and surrounding areas whose operations may result in conflicting arrival and departure paths. He defines such an area as a METROPLEX and uses it to answer several research questions. How is variation in block time affected by meteorological conditions? Are the influences of the variables affecting block times also affected by meteorological conditions? How do new air traffic control procedures and the capabilities of the next generation of air traffic control system (NEXTGEN) affect these airports? Are there differences in results when hierarchical linear models that account for fixed and random effects and regression models are used? The dependent variable in his models is block delay and the independent variables include en-route miles flown, average speed, the nation’s airspace system (NAS) delays, taxi-out delays, taxi-in delays, airborne delays and percent operations in instrument meteorological conditions. He concludes from his analysis that hierarchical models provide a better picture of performance, and that instrument meteorological conditions, en-route miles flown, speed, the number of NAS delays, taxi-in and taxi-out delays have significant effects on variation in block time compared to airline flight plans. The third paper is by Woldeamanuel and Kent and it is on the determinants of per capita vehicle miles traveled in California. Its aim is to identify policy variables which could help in reducing per capita vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and reduce greenhouse gas (GHG). Additionally, the paper aims to provide a better understanding of the factors which reduce VMT so that “state and regional organizations can develop effective strategies for near and long term per capita VMT and GHG reduction.” Data for the study are from the National Household Travel Survey and include information on household demographics and travel behavior. Using multivariate regression methods the authors estimate VMT equations and employ Chow’s test to reject data pooling in favor of separate models for 2001 and 2009. They find “a shift toward a more diverse group of significant 3 variables which explain and impact per capita VMT” (e.g., commuting by public transit, increasing public transit trips, bike trips), a group of variables with similar effects in the 2001 and 2009 models (e.g., distance to work, population density, travel day trips, and number of vehicles in a household) and concluded that their study supports compact urban development. Park and Koo examine “the magnitudes of economic and non-economic factors in the demand for U.S. domestic air travel” in the fourth paper with the objective of analyzing carrier behavior in capturing market share. Using a utility maximization framework they derive a demand equation whose dependent variable is airline passenger miles, and its independent variables are the fares of different airlines, disposable income, seasonality, the impact of the September 11 attack and a merger variable. This demand equation is estimated with data from the first quarter of 2000 through the third quarter of 2012 drawn from sources including airlines, the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Economic Report of the President. They find that air fare, income, seasonality and mergers are important determinants of passenger demand. More importantly, they find that U.S. airline passenger demand is unaffected by unexpected events such as the September 11 attack on airlines. In the fifth paper Choi, Roberts and Lee write on forecasting carbon dioxide emissions in the U.S transportation sector. Their objectives are to provide forecasts of carbon dioxide at the national and state levels from 2012 to 2021 and determine if trends in carbon dioxide emissions reductions in the United States since 2000 are observable across states. Choi et al. estimate a double exponential smoothing model using data from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the State Energy Data System of the U.S. Energy Information Administration to forecast carbon dioxide emissions. They find long-term trends in the reduction of carbon dioxide throughout the United States.