China's Life Insurance Sector Faces Significant Credit Quality Differentiation
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China’s Life Insurance Sector Faces Significant Credit Quality Differentiation A Credit Study on the Life Insurance Industry in China November 18, 2020 ANALYSTS Key Takeaways Ying Li, CFA, FRM Beijing − Our study of 35 of China's major life insurers reveals a wide divergence in credit quality +86-10-6516-6061 between the leading players and small and mid-sized ones. [email protected] − A regulatory clampdown on short-term savings products since 2016 has pushed Xiaochen Luan, CFA, FRM Chinese life insurers to refocus on protection-type products and improve their product Beijing mix. This initiative has moderated premium growth in recent years but is positive for +86-10-6516-6069 [email protected] the long-term sustainability of the sector. Zheng Li − We expect the life insurance sector to maintain a relatively stable credit outlook in the Beijing face of economic uncertainty caused by COVID-19. The effects of the pandemic have +86-10-6516-6067 mainly included a slowdown in top-line premium growth and heightened investment [email protected] return volatility. Nevertheless, we believe the strong capital and earning buffers of leading life insurers will protect their credit quality. Cong Cui Beijing +86-10-6516-6068 [email protected] Contents Xuefei Zou, CPA Beijing Overview ........................................................................................................................ 2 +86-10-6516-6070 Industry Risk ................................................................................................................. 5 [email protected] Business Risk Profile .................................................................................................. 10 Longtai Chen Capital & Earnings ...................................................................................................... 11 Beijing Risk Position ............................................................................................................... 16 +86-10-6516-6065 [email protected] Financial Flexibility ..................................................................................................... 20 Financial Risk Profile .................................................................................................. 22 Yifu Wang, CFA, CPA Beijing Anchor ......................................................................................................................... 23 +86-10-6516-6064 Stand-alone Credit Profile .......................................................................................... 23 [email protected] External Support ......................................................................................................... 26 About This Article ........................................................................................................ 28 Appendix: Related Methodologies .............................................................................. 28 S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn November 18, 2020 China’s Life Insurance Sector Faces Significant Credit Quality Differentiation November 18, 2020 Overview This desktop analysis is based on S&P Global (China) Ratings Insurance Methodology. According to our insurance methodology, we typically determine the stand-alone credit quality based on our assessment of an institution’s anchor which is further adjusted with assessment of management and governance, liquidity and peer comparison. We typically arrive at the anchor by assessing the institution’s business risk profile (“BRP”) and financial risk profile (“FRP”). We then determine the issuer credit rating (“ICR”) based on the stand-alone credit profile (“SACP”) and our assessment of potential group or government influence. We have conducted a desktop analysis of 35 life insurance companies (including specialized health insurance companies), which together accounted for about 90% of premiums in the sector in 2019. Chart 1 Insurance Methodology Framework of S&P Global (China) Ratings We determine the issuer credit rating of an insurer based on its stand-alone credit profile and our assessment of potential group or government influence. Source: S&P Global (China) Ratings Copyright © by 2020 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Our study of 35 of China's major life insurers reveals a wide divergence in credit quality between the leading players and small and mid-sized ones. Leading insurance companies tend to enjoy stable market share and good profitability. Healthy sector-wide statistics may have obscured difficulties faced by smaller insurers. We consider that a tightening of regulations since 2017 has hit smaller insurers more than others, by largely removing their ability to grow their business through investment-type products. Larger companies generally enjoy advantageous economies of scale, while smaller insurers have struggled to achieve sufficient scale in recent years. A few small and mid-sized players have also faced difficulties in terms of regulatory compliance and corporate governance, leading to regulatory intervention. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 2 China’s Life Insurance Sector Faces Significant Credit Quality Differentiation November 18, 2020 Chart 2 Distribution of Indicative Stand-alone Credit Quality of 35 Major Life Insurers in China 8 There is a wide divergence in stand- alone credit quality between leading 4 insurers and small and mid-sized ones. Number of Insurers of Number 0 Note 1: Our assessment of indicative stand-alone credit quality doesn’t consider the possibility of group or government support in times of stress. Note 2*: The indicative credit quality distributions expressed in this report are only our indicative views of credit quality derived from a desktop analysis based on public information without interactive review with any particular institution or the full credit rating process such as a rating committee (except for a few cases where we have already assigned public ratings on a company). The opinions expressed herein are not and should not be represented as a credit rating and should not be taken as an indication of a final credit rating of any particular institution. Source: S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © by 2020 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Government and group support are integral parts of our credit analysis of life insurers. About half of the life insurers we tested have higher indicative issuer credit quality than indicative stand-alone credit quality, due to their external support. Chart 3 Distribution of Indicative Issuer Credit Quality of 35 Major Life Insurers in China 12 Government and group support are integral parts of our 6 credit analysis of life insurers. Number of Insurers of Number 0 Note 1: Our assessment of indicative issuer credit quality considers the possibility of group or government support in times of stress. Note 2*: The indicative credit quality distributions expressed in this report are only our indicative views of credit quality derived from a desktop analysis based on public information without interactive review with any particular institution or the full credit rating process such as a rating committee (except for a few cases where we have already assigned public ratings on a company). The opinions expressed herein are not and should not be represented as a credit rating and should not be taken as an indication of a final credit rating of any particular institution. Source: S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © by 2020 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. Although the [Bspc] category in our desktop analysis covers about 1.7 trillion RMB in life insurance company assets, the financial obligations of these [Bspc] category companies were only about 59 billion RMB (around 28 billion RMB of which was in bonds) as of the end of 2019. We believe the low financial leverage level of life insurers significantly mitigates any potential credit risk shock on the capital market from low-quality small life insurers. S&P Global (China) Ratings www.spgchinaratings.cn 3 China’s Life Insurance Sector Faces Significant Credit Quality Differentiation November 18, 2020 Chart 4 Distribution of Indicative Issuer Credit Quality of 35 Major Life Insurers by Assets 8,000 The good credit quality of large life insurers underpins the overall stability of 4,000 the industry. il. Yuan) il. b ( 0 [AAA]* Category [AA]* Category [A]* Category [BBB]* Category [BB]* Category [B]* Category Indicative Issuer Credit Quality Note 1: Our assessment of indicative issuer credit quality considers the possibility of group or government support in times of stress. Note 2*: The indicative credit quality distributions expressed in this report are only our indicative views of credit quality derived from a desktop analysis based on public information without interactive review with any particular institution or the full credit rating process such as a rating committee (except for a few cases where we have already assigned public ratings on a company). The opinions expressed herein are not and should not be represented as a credit rating and should not be taken as an indication of a final credit rating of any particular institution. Note 3: Categories can be adjusted by “+” and “-” except for AAA. Source: S&P Global (China) Ratings. Copyright © by 2020 S&P Ratings (China) Co., Ltd. All rights reserved. We expect the life insurance sector to maintain a relatively stable credit outlook in