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Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment September 2015 This report is a collaboration between the CTUIR, Adaptation International, and the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI). For information about the CTUIR and its Vulnerability Assessment work, contact CTUIR Department of Science and Engineering at: CTUIR-DOSE 46330 Timine Way, Pendleton, OR 97801 Phone: 541-429-7040 Fax: 541-429-7040 Email: [email protected] Cover Image Caption Gibbon Ridge wildflowers in June, Rattlesnake and Stumbough Ridges in the distance. Cover Image Credit Scott Peckham, CTUIR Department of Natural Resources Funding Project funding was provided by a grant from the Bureau of Indian Affairs for the November 2013 Category 2 (adaptation planning) grant proposal titled Climate Adaptation: CTUIR Vulnerability and Resiliency Assessment and in-kind assistance by the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation. Recommended Citation Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, 2015. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. Nasser, E., Petersen, S., Mills, P. (eds). Available online: www.ctuir.org Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment September 2015 This report is a collaboration between the CTUIR, Adaptation International, and the Oregon Climate Change Research Institute (OCCRI). For information about the CTUIR and its Vulnerability Assessment work, contact CTUIR Department of Science and Engineering at: CTUIR‐DOSE 46330 Timine Way, Pendleton, OR 97801 Phone: 541‐429‐7040 Fax: 541‐429‐7040 Email: [email protected] CTUIR Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, 2015 2 Acknowledgements The success of this project is the result of contributions from dedicated, long‐term members of staff, Committees, and Commissions at the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Reservation (CTUIR). Without their willingness to provide detailed input, bring in years of knowledge and expertise, and share their concerns about how changing climate conditions and extreme weather will affect all people living and working on the reservation, this report would not have been possible. This report and the process that went into creating it lays the foundation for continued work on this issue. The solid foundation established by the vulnerability assessment will help guide future action to make the CTUIR more resilient in the face of a changing climate. Climate Change Working Group Patrick Mills, EIT Project Manager, Dept. of Science & Engineering Rod Skeen, Ph.D., PE Project Advisor, Dept. of Science & Engineering Steven Link, Ph.D. Team Member, Dept. of Science & Engineering Eli Harris Team Member, Dept. of Science & Engineering Ray Denny Team Member, Public Safety Dept. J.D. Tovey Team Member, Tribal Planning Office Patty Perry Team Member, Tribal Planning Office Kate Ely Team Member, Dept. of Natural Resources Cheryl Shippentower Team Member, Dept. of Natural Resources Carl Merkle Team Member, Dept. of Natural Resources Stacy Schumacher Team Member, Information Technology–GIS Scott O’Daniel Team Member, Information Technology–GIS Eric Gabriel Team Member, Yellowhawk Tribal Health Care Jo Marie Tessman Team Member, Cultural Resource Committee Ellu Nasser Affiliate, Adaptation International Sascha Petersen Founder, Adaptation International Darrin Sharp Lead Climate Modeler, OCCRI Kyle Dittmer Hydrologist‐Meteorologist, CRITFC Laura Gephart Watershed Programs Coordinator, CRITFC Joel Moffett Akana We extend our gratitude to the CTUIR GIS program for developing maps and to individuals at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Oregon Health Authority for reviewing the report and assisting with its development. CTUIR Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, 2015 3 Funding Project funding was provided by a grant from the Bureau of Indian Affairs for the November 2013 Category 2 (adaptation planning) grant proposal titled Climate Adaptation: CTUIR Vulnerability and Resiliency Assessment and in‐kind assistance by the Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation. Recommended Citation Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation, 2015. Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment. Nasser, E., Petersen, S., Mills, P. (eds). Available online: www.ctuir.org CTUIR Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, 2015 4 Definitions and Acronyms BIA: Bureau of Indian Affairs. B.P.: Before Present is a time scale used mainly in geology and other scientific disciplines to specify when events in the past occurred. Because the “present” time changes, standard practice is to use January 1, 1950 as the start of the age scale, reflecting the fact that radiocarbon dating became practicable in the 1950s1. CH4: Methane is the second most prevalent greenhouse gas (after CO2) and is quite potent with an average of 25 times the heat trapping capability of carbon dioxide2. CIRC: Climate Impacts Research Consortium is a research organization funded by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to provide policy makers, resource managers, and fellow researchers with the best available science covering the changing climate of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and western Montana. CMIPS: Coupled Model lntercomparison Project v5. CO: Carbon Monoxide is an odorless, colorless, toxic gas resulting from combustion, which can cause health effects and is usually associated with indoor exposure3. CO2: Carbon Dioxide is the primary greenhouse gas emitted from human activities; in 2013, it accounted for about 82% of all U.S. greenhouse gas emissions4. CSC: Climate Science Center serves as a resource for Department of the Interior agencies and other partners in providing necessary science in advising policy decisions. The regional CSC for the Pacific Northwest is located at Oregon State University. CRITFC: Columbia River Inter‐Tribal Fish Commission. CTUIR: Confederated Tribes of the Umatilla Indian Reservation. DOI: Department of the Interior. ENSO: El Niño Southern Oscillation. GCM: Global Climate Models. GHG: Greenhouse gas is the name for a group of gasses that trap heat in the atmosphere. They act like a blanket around the Earth and keep it warm. 1 Wikipedia, 2015. Retrieved from: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Before_Present 2 United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2015. Overview of Greenhouse Gases: Methane. Retrieved from: http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/ch4.html 3 United States Environmental Protection Agency. An Introduction to Indoor Air Quality: Carbon Monoxide. Retrieved from: http://www.epa.gov/iaq/co.html 4 United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2015. Overview of Greenhouse Gases: Carbon Dioxide. Retrieved from: http://epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/co2.html CTUIR Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, 2015 5 IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, established in 1988, is the leading international body for the assessment of climate change to provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of knowledge in climate change and its potential environmental and socio‐economic impacts5. KICs: Key Items of Concern. MACA: Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs is a statistical downscaling method, which utilizes a training dataset (i.e. a meteorological observation dataset) to remove historical biases and match spatial patterns in climate model output6. NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. N2O: Nitrous Oxide is a significant greenhouse gas with 298 times the global warming potential of CO2. It accounts for about 5% of all greenhouse gas emissions from human activity in the U.S.7. NWS: National Weather Service. OCCRI: Oregon Climate Change Research Institute was created by the Oregon state legislature in 2007 to foster climate change research among faculty of the Oregon University System, serve as a clearinghouse for climate information, and to provide climate change information to the public. PDO: Pacific Decadal Oscillation. PM: Particulate Matter, also known as particle pollution is a toxic mix of extremely small particles which form as a result of combustion, the size of which is directly linked to its toxicity (e.g. the smaller the particle, the more toxic it is). The U.S. EPA regulates it. PNW: Pacific Northwest. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5: RCP stands for Representative Concentration Pathway. In the projections contained herein, RCP 4.5 is considered the "low emissions” scenario, while RCP 8.5 is considered the “high emissions” scenario. RCP 4.5 is generally considered to be a “best case” scenario (representing concerted efforts to reduce emissions), while RCP 8.5 is generally considered “worst case” or “business as usual.” TEK: Traditional Ecological Knowledge. U.S. EPA: United States Environmental Protection Agency. 5 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2015. Organization. Retrieved from: http://www.ipcc.ch/organization/organization.shtml 6 University of Idaho, 2015. Multivariate Adaptive Constructive Analogs (MACA) Statistical Downscaling Method. Retrieved from: http://maca.northwestknowledge.net 7 United States Environmental Protection Agency, 2015. Overview of Greenhouse Gases: Nitrous Oxide. Retrieved from: http://www.epa.gov/climatechange/ghgemissions/gases/n2o.html CTUIR Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment, 2015 6 Table of Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................. 3 Definitions and Acronyms ....................................................................................................
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