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4.2 Using Production, Trade, and Sales Data in Tobacco Control

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4.2 Using Production, Trade, and Sales Data in Tobacco Control section4.2janvier9:Layout 1 09/01/2009 13:31 Page 153 4.2 Using production, trade, and sales data in tobacco control Introduction nately, such a system is not yet the import and export of available. Tobacco control resear- manufactured tobacco products can Article 20 of the Framework chers and advocates must find provide valuable information on Convention on Tobacco Control important data, such as cross- important, key players in the na- (FCTC) calls for parties to: country estimates of production, tional tobacco control debate. For trade, and tobacco consumption example, a close examination of “(a) establish progressively a na- from a variety of sources. trade patterns in tobacco products tional system for the epide- The objectives of this section are can reveal the precise origin of miological surveillance of to- 3-fold: to discuss the potential cigarette imports; similarly, it can bacco consumption and rela- usefulness of production and trade identify key export markets. Such ted social, economic and data in tobacco control, with par- information can be invaluable in health indicators; ticular attention to the advantages identifying important players in the (b) cooperate with competent and disadvantages of using these national tobacco control arena. international and regional inter- data to measure tobacco con- Finally, production figures can be governmental organizations sumption; to examine the use of combined with import and export and other bodies, including export and import statistics for figures, to provide a measure of governmental and nongovern- measuring the illegal cigarette trade; national consumption of manu- mental agencies, in regional and to review the availability and factured tobacco products that may and global tobacco surveil- quality of existing data. be useful in attempting to quantify lance and exchange of the magnitude of the smuggling information on the indicators Trade and production data in market. Sales data, based on tax specified in paragraph 3(a) of tobacco control records, can also be used as an this Article” (WHO, 2003). estimate of the consumption of Data on trade and production of various tobacco products. One can envisage that as the FCTC manufactured tobacco products can is progressively implemented in a be obtained from national statistical Using aggregate data to substantial number of countries, a agencies and international data- measure cigarette consump- comprehensive and sustainable bases with relative ease and tion: advantages and dis- surveillance system will emerge. provide valuable information to advantages Such a system would allow advo- tobacco control advocates. First, cates and researchers a one stop production data can provide a good Estimates of consumption and source of information where com- indicator of the importance of the prevalence of use of tobacco parable key tobacco control sta- national tobacco industry at both the products can originate from various tistics, such as mortality attributable national and international levels types of data. They can be based on to tobacco use, prevalence of and, in the absence of trade, (self-reported) tobacco use preva- tobacco use, and consumption of production data can provide an lence surveys, which provide and trade in manufactured tobacco accurate measure of the national information on the proportion of products are accessible. Unfortu- tobacco market. Secondly, data on tobacco users in a given population. 153 section4.2janvier9:Layout 1 09/01/2009 13:31 Page 154 IARC Handbooks of Cancer Prevention Prevalence data combined with cigarettes smoked each day is tobacco consumption (Rijo, tobacco use intensity data (e.g. underreported. In addition, many 2005); and Thailand where high number of cigarette smoked per population-based surveys do not levels of use of hand-rolled day) can also yield total con- interview people in the military, tobacco have been reported sumption estimates. Consump-tion prison, and psychiatric institutions (Sarntisart, 2003) can also be derived from aggre- and thus will not assess use in The major problem with gate production and trade populations with fairly substantial aggregate data is perhaps that, statistics. Production plus imports smoking prevalence. Another unlike prevalence survey-based minus exports will yield “apparent” potential limitation is the infre- data, they cannot be used for consumption estimates. For quent availability of trend data. analyzing changes in sex, age, example: Finally, the subjective nature of income, and education distri- • cigarette consumption = ciga- surveys and differences in survey bution, and they do not permit a rette production + cigarette methodology (questions, defini- distinction between a change in imports – cigarette exports tions, languages, etc.) also make the number of smokers and • per capita cigarette con- comparison of estimates across changes in consumption per sumption = cigarette con- countries difficult. smoker (Warner, 1977). Other sumption / (pop. 15+) Aggregate production and important problems include illicit trade statistics are objective data trade in cigarettes and illegal National cigarette sales data, that eliminate the underreporting manufacturing and counterfeit based on sales or tax records, can problem inherent in data based on trade, resulting in export and also be an estimator of con- subjective survey responses import data not being registered in sumption (Guindon & Boisclair, (Warner, 1977). These data are official figures, which may lead to 2003). also readily available across time under or overestimating con- Prevalence surveys can and countries. This feature, as sumption of tobacco products provide important insights into well as the availability of cen- (WHO, 1998a). The problem of patterns of and changes in tralized data sources using stockpiling may also emerge, as consumption according to sex, common methodologies, allows not all cigarettes will be consumed age, income, and education for good comparability. However, in the year they are produced or (Warner, 1977). They also allow most of these large-scale tobacco imported. If this stockpiling is distinguishing between a change statistics are only available for significant it may bias con- in the number of smokers and manufactured cigarettes. Data sumption estimates. However, it is changes in consumption per from the Global Youth Tobacco doubtful that stockpiling will affect smoker. On the other hand, Survey (GYTS) indicate that more trends since it is not likely to vary consumption data (the number of than 10% of students used tobac- from year-to–year, although tobac- cigarettes consumed) based on co products other than cigarettes, co companies have been known surveys can suffer from significant with the rate being highest in the to time cigarette stockpiling underreporting (Warner, 1978; southeast Asia region and the against health measures so that Jackson & Beaglehole, 1985; eastern Mediterranean region they appear less effective (WHO, Hatziandreu et al ., 1989; Foss et (Warren et al. , 2006). Specific 1998a). Transient populations will al ., 1998). Surveys generally examples include: India where affect aggregate trade and provide valid estimates of pre- tobacco consumption is domina- production statistics to a varying valence (Velicer et al. , 1992; ted by use of non-cigarette degree. Finally, the question of Patrick et al. , 1994; Caraballo et tobacco (bidis, leaf tobacco etc.), measurement units can yield al. , 2001; Caraballo et al. , 2004), resulting in cigarette consumption diverging trends and biased point suggesting that the number of repre-senting only 15% of total estimates. More specifically: 154 section4.2janvier9:Layout 1 09/01/2009 13:31 Page 155 Using production, trade and sales data in tobacco control • “Apparent” consumption will units, trade statistics in metric bility through time, adding all underestimate true consump- tons, and one gram of cigarette production data points in a tion in countries where tobacco equals one cigarette, true particular year can lead to under- products are illegally imported consumption will be over-esti- estimation. and consumed, while it will mated if the country is a net Sales data based on tax overestimate true consumption importer of cigarettes, and records are also aggregate data, where tobacco products are underestimated it if the country and similarly present the same illegally exported to another is a net exporter. general advantages and dis- country. • “Apparent” consumption will advantages as those described • Trade and production data can overestimate true consumption above for production and trade be reported in weight or in in countries with large transient statistics. It should be noted, physical units. In countries populations (for example however, that sales data are not where cigarette weights have tourists or military), and small as readily available across not remained constant over indigenous populations, such countries and are not available in time, cigarette consumption as Malta and the Maldives. centralised databases. On the expressed in units and in weight In addition to the measurement other hand, they do not suffer from can show diverging trends. For issues described above, pro- the limitations associated with example, Australian cigarettes duction and trade figures reported measuring and reporting units or became progressively lighter in by national statistical agencies stockpiling. They also present the the late 1980s. When ex- may not accurately reflect true advantage (unlike estimates pressed
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