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Telecom Service Getting Over the Hump 2H15 Outlook Overweight Report (Maintain) June 10, 2015 [Summary] Getting over the hump 2 I. 2H15 outlook: Getting over the hump 4 II. Key themes and issues: O.V.E.R. 16 III. Valuation & investment strategy 40 IV. Top pick & stocks to watch 44 SK Telecom KT LG Uplus [Conclusion] Look to earnings improvements 60 and dividend payout Telecom Service Getting over the hump Jee-hyun Moon +822-768-3615 [email protected] [Summary] Getting over the hump Domestic telcos are positioned for a rebound in 2H15 (W) (p) - Earnings recovery 38,000 ARPU of 3 major telcos (L) FTSE Korea Telecom Index (R) - Shareholder-friendly policies 60 - Reflection of value of new businesses 55 36,000 LTE penetration 50 34,000 45 40 32,000 - Slow ARPU growth 35 - Concerns over new service plans 30,000 - More pressure from government 30 28,000 25 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15F 16F 17F Notes: ARPU stands for average revenue per user Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2H15 Outlook 2 [Summary] Getting over the hump Positioned for a rebound in 2H15 Key themes and issues: • Stocks to look for a rebound after pullback in 1H • Sector keyword: O.V.E.R. • Increasing worries over policy headwinds O) Opportunity: New opportunities in mobile-only era • Strong need for new business strategies to overcome • Emergence of B2B data market and platform business reckless competition and regulations expansion Keys to recovery: • IoT initiatives to pick up pace (e.g., telcos to be allowed to 1) Looking beyond subscribers make devices themselves) • Focus shifting from expanding subscriber share to V) Velocity: The battle for speed continues increasing usage • Spectrum allocation and auctions on the horizon • Ongoing efforts to boost ARPU and IoT accounts • Gearing up for the 5G era 2) Looking beyond telecom E) Encouragement: Encouraging data usage • Focusing on non-telecom businesses that can benefit the • Continued efforts to improve ARPU existing telecom business • Segmentation of data plans based on usage and • Media and platform are taking the lead time/place/occasion 3) Looking beyond profit R) Regulations: Regulations/policy direction are key • Capex and expenses declining due to LTE saturation and • Pullbacks triggered by policy worries: Buying opportunity handset distribution law • Key issues: 1) Creation of fourth telco, 2) improvements • Improved FCF points to more room for shareholder returns to tariff approval scheme, and 3) potential revisions to • All three telcos to hand out dividends this year; SK Telecom handset distribution law to buy back shares 2H15 Outlook 3 Telecom I. 2H15 outlook: Getting over the hump Service Telecom service sector • Telco stocks are poised for a rebound in 2H after correcting in 1H poised for recovery • Attention is turning from earnings to shareholder returns (i.e., dividends and buybacks) • Telcos need to come up with business strategies and momentum to overcome competition and regulatory risks TIP Policy issues and telco index The greater an issue household (p) (max=100) telecom costs become, the 51 FTSE Korea Telecom (L) 0 more downside pressure arises 'Phone bill' search frequency (inverted, R) on telco stocks 'Fourth telco' search frequency (inverted, R) 49 20 A number of government efforts are underway to ease 47 telecommunication costs, including the potential creation 40 of a fourth telco 45 60 43 Prices fell as search 41 queries for "phone bill" and "fourth telco" increased 80 Telcos likely to bottom around 3Q; 39 solid fundamentals (i.e., earnings, dividends) to draw 100 attention thereafter 37 6/14 9/14 12/14 3/15 6/15 9/15 12/15 3/16 Notes: Average number of PC and mobile searches for “phone bill” and “fourth telco” based on a maximum of 100 Source: Naver Trend, Thomson Reuters, KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2H15 Outlook 4 Telecom I. 2H15 outlook: Getting over the hump Service Excessive competition is • Subsidies-driven marketing was a classic example of the industry’s reckless competition penalized with regulations • The introduction of the handset distribution law has cooled subsidy competition • Now, competition is oriented towards products and services, as illustrated by the recent release of new data plans • Where will competition be focused next? TIP Competition has shifted from subsidies to products/services: Where will the next battle be? Competition in data plans is vitalizing telco products and services Products/ Products/ services Subsidies services Subsidies - Monthly plans Switch - Bundled products phone - Membership New - Contents/platform (MNP) Source: SK Telecom, KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2H15 Outlook 5 Telecom I. 2H15 outlook: Getting over the hump Service 1) Looking beyond • The concept of “users” is coming into focus subscribers: The concept • To enhance ARPU, an effective strategy is to charge any person or entity (including service providers and indirect users, in addition to postpaid subscribers) for network access of “users” TIP Telcos need to broaden their target group to all types of users The number of users accessing telecom networks without a subscription is increasing Subscriber basis + improving ARPU (MVNO, sponsored data, WiFi, etc.) Increase User Subscriber Service providers; Individually Indirect users contracted direct users Decrease Diluted economies of scale, decrease in ARPU Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2H15 Outlook 6 Telecom I. 2H15 outlook: Getting over the hump Service 1) Looking beyond • Network access by non-subscribers is growing; Key example is mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) subscribers: The concept MVNOs are mobile service providers that lack their own infrastructure and therefore lease wireless of “users” • capacity from major carriers • Google’s Project Fi, a type of MVNO service launched in April, uses the networks of both Sprint and T-Mobile TIP Google’s Project Fi taps the networks of two major US carriers Internet companies are venturing into telecom services in an effort to increase their own traffic by providing seamless connectivity Notes: US$20 per month for unlimited voice and text; US$10 for one gigabyte of data; Available only for Nexus 6 users Source: Google, KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2H15 Outlook 7 Telecom I. 2H15 outlook: Getting over the hump Service 1) Looking beyond • Industry’s marketing war may end once companies let go of their fixation on subscriber share subscribers: Since mobile subscriber penetration reached 100% in 2011, companies have made numerous ARPU > volume • efforts to raise ARPU • The first such effort was the deployment of LTE; the second was service diversification TIP Wireless service revenue: Subscribers vs. ARPU In a market with a stagnant population, it is critical to (Wtr) Service revenue (L) Pene- ('000 persons, W) increase ARPU 30 No. of subscribers (R) tration 60,000 ARPU of 3 major telcos (R) above 100% 55,000 Subscriber growth (+5% on average) 25 brought about increase in revenue 50,000 45,000 20 40,000 35,000 15 Increase in ARPU (+8% on average) 30,000 brought about increase in revenue 10 25,000 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 Source: KTOA, MSIP, KCC, company data, KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2H15 Outlook 8 Telecom I. 2H15 outlook: Getting over the hump Service 1) Looking beyond • The advent of Internet of Things (IoT) has increased the number of device accounts subscribers: IoT • Service plans dedicated to wearables are being introduced in a bid to further lift ARPU • Device-to-device connection (via Bluetooth) does not generate network revenue • The development of more convenient devices and services is essential to encourage wireless network usage TIP Increasing number of internet-connected devices Expanding the customer base (bn units) from people to “things” IoT devices 20 Healthcare 1.1bn Other Consumer 1.6bn electronics 15 6.3bn Utilities CAGR: 22% 2.2bn 2022F 18bn devices Auto 10 2bn Buildings 4.9bn 5 0 11 13 15F 17F 19F 21F Source: Gartner, KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2H15 Outlook 9 Telecom I. 2H15 outlook: Getting over the hump Service 2) Looking beyond telecom: • Companies should take a selection and concentration approach, focusing on non-telecom services that can benefit their existing telecom business Synergy effects from non- Fixed-line: Pressing need to address weaknesses and increase network utilization telecom services • • Wireless: Diversification into areas that can contribute to maintaining subscribers and improving ARPU TIP Selection and concentration in non-telecom businesses A key priority for business diversification should be synergies with existing businesses Non-telecom? Businesses that help retain wireless subscribers & increase ARPU Businesses that can pull on existing subscribers Stabilization Businesses period that can increase size of revenue Transitional period Initial period Source: KDB Daewoo Securities Research 2H15 Outlook 10 Telecom I. 2H15 outlook: Getting over the hump Service 2) Looking beyond • Within non-telecom, media and platforms are taking center stage telecom: Media and • Media: Telcos’ media operations complement their fixed-line and wireless businesses, and have strong upside to ARPU platform • Platform: Telcos’ platform operations are focused on expanding the mobile space, and have the potential to become global; In particular, the development of the internet market has moved towards the communications and e-commerce segments TIP Telcos’ platform businesses are moving towards media and e-commerce Beneficial to growth and re-rating Portal, music download – App store, communication – Video streaming – Commerce,
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