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HAYLEYS FABRIC PLC CSE: MGT.N0000 Bloomberg: MGT SL EQUITY | SRI LANKA | CONSUMER DURABLES and APPAREL

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HAYLEYS FABRIC PLC CSE: MGT.N0000 Bloomberg: MGT SL EQUITY | SRI LANKA | CONSUMER DURABLES and APPAREL HAYLEYS FABRIC PLC CSE: MGT.N0000 Bloomberg: MGT SL EQUITY | SRI LANKA | CONSUMER DURABLES AND APPAREL INITIATING WITH A BUY Riding the TREND!!!! CORPORATE UPDATE | 07 AUG 2019 Fair Value [FY20E]: LKR 20.0 [47%] FIRST CAPITAL RESEARCH Total Return with DPS 47% [AER 82%] Hiruni Perera +94 11 263 9864 [email protected] Disclosure Minimum Return for BUY: Buy Below [AER of 16.83% without DPS]: LKR 18.10 MGT categorized as ‘Grade B’ counter (Refer slide 44 for Recommendation criteria of Grade A, B & C Stocks) Disclosure on Shareholding: First Capital Group does not hold shares in MGT. First Capital Group has not traded in the shares in the three trading days prior to this document and will not trade in the shares for three trading days following the issue of this document. First Capital Research Aug 2019 2 Content Briefing 1.0 Summary and Key Data…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 4 2.0 Investment Thesis…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 7 2.1 Shifted focus towards synthetic products to drive the topline growth………………………………………………………………… 9 2.2 Stable cotton and polyester prices to further expand margins……………………………………………………………………………. 17 2.3 Capacity expansion in knitting and dying facility to enhance the market share…………………………………………………… 21 2.4 Current Profitability to be set off against the tax losses and ESC…………………………………………………………………………. 24 3.0 Valuation………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 26 4.0 Company Profile …………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….. 31 5.0 Appendices 5.1 Financial Statements…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….35 5.2 Management Credentials……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..38 5.3 Analysis of top 20 shareholders…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 41 5.4 Recommendation Criteria…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… 43 Disclaimer……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..45 First Capital Research Aug 2019 3 1.0 Summary and Key Data First Capital Research Aug 2019 4 Investment Summary MGT, one of the main fabric manufacturers in Sri Lanka, has built a competitive advantage in 21.0 apparel exports. MGT’s 1QFY20 earnings posted an increase of +1311%YoY the highest growth 19.0 ever led by increase in the topline stemmed from the order realized from “Inno” and other 17.0 6.4 synthetic products. We expect the strong order book in FY20E and the stable cotton and 15.0 polyester yarn prices along with the relief from tax expenses, due to the tax losses carried 13.0 11.0 forward and ability to recover the ESC to provide a potential earnings growth CAGR of 26% for 9.0 13.6 13.6 FY20E-22E. MGT’s fair value is estimated at LKR 20.0 for FY20E providing an annualized total 7.0 return of 82%. INITIATING WITH A BUY 5.0 Current FY20E P/E 31 March FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20E FY21E FY22E Current Price Expected Capital Gain Dividends upto 31.03.2020 Estimates (LKR 'Mn) Revenue 8,635 8,495 8,333 8,965 11,983 13,780 15,848 18,225 Gross Profit 903 1,071 974 944 1,429 1,860 2,219 2,734 Fair Value [FY20E]: LKR 20.0 [47%] EBIT 224 375 202 144 470 698 865 1,066 Total Return with DPS 47% [AER 82%] Net Profit 90 262 74 -106 181 542 704 861 Adjusted EPS 0.4 1.3 0.4 -0.5 0.9 2.6 3.4 4.1 YoY Growth (%) 149% 191% -72% -244% 272% 199% 30% 22% Valuations PER (x) 31.4x 10.8x 38.4x N/A 15.6x 5.2x 4.0x 3.3x PBV (x) 1.4x 1.1x 1.0x 1.1x 0.9x 0.8x 0.6x 0.5x DY (%) - - - - - - - - First Capital Research Aug 2019 5 Key Data KEY DATA Price Performance (%) 1 mth 3 mths 12mths CSE Ticker MGT.N MGT 56% 58% 43% ASPI 7% 9% -4% Bloomberg Ticker MGT SL Share Price (LKR) 13.6 155.0 52w High (LKR) 13.6 145.0 52w Low (LKR) 7.6 135.0 Avg. Daily Volume (Shares) 267,512 125.0 Avg. Daily Turnover (LKR) 2,932,020 115.0 Issued Share Capital (Shares 'Mn) 208 105.0 95.0 Market Cap (LKR 'Mn) 2,825 85.0 Market Cap (USD 'Mn) 16 75.0 *1 USD = LKR 176 ASPI MGT Source: CSE First Capital Research Aug 2019 6 2.0 Investment Thesis First Capital Research Aug 2019 7 Investment Thesis 2.1 Shifted focus towards synthetic products to drive the topline growth 2.2 Stable cotton and polyester prices to further expand margins 2.3 Capacity expansion in knitting and dying facility to enhance the market share 2.4 Profitability to be set off against the tax losses and ESC First Capital Research Aug 2019 8 2.1 Shifted focus towards synthetic products to drive the topline growth First Capital Research Aug 2019 9 Booming Global Synthetic Fabric Market The global synthetic market is expected to reach USD 90,000Mn in In line with the global trend, contribution from synthetic fabrics revenue to MGT’s revenue increased over the years 100,000 90,000 90,000 100% 80,000 90% 25% 80% 34% 70,000 62,688 42% 70% 60,000 60% 50,000 50% 40,000 40% 74% 65% 30,000 30% 57% 20,000 20% 10,000 10% 0% 0 FY17 FY18 FY19 2017 2026 Cotton and Cotton blends Polyester & polyester blends Other Source: Bloomberg Source: MGT Annual Report FY19 The latest study conducted by Transparency Market Research reveals that the global market for synthetic fiber is set to exhibit a growth of 4.1% CAGR as its physical properties such as lightweight, high durability and elasticity makes it an apt material for the textile industry. Some of the leading global clothing brands like Nike, Victoria’s Secret and Decathlon are strategically moving towards Sri Lanka for synthetic apparel production, as Sri Lanka has come up with a wide range of synthetic raw material options over the last couple of years. As indicated in the revenue mix, in line with this global trend, MGT accelerated its focus towards polyester and polyester blended fabrics which currently accounts for 42% of the total revenue relative to 34% in FY18. First Capital Research Aug 2019 10 Global Athletic apparel to garner over USD 350.0Bn in sales by 2020 Sportswear sales is estimated to witness a higher growth Morgan Stanley projects global active wear sales to climb over relative to other categories USD 350.0Bn stealing market share from nonathletic apparel 400.0 Other accessories 3 Jewelary and 350.0 2.5 watches 300.0 Handbags and 5.5 luggage 250.0 Sportswear 7 USD Bn 200.0 Footwear 3.5 150.0 Apparel 5 100.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Sales growth expectations 2019 % Source: The State of fashion 2019 by the McKinsey & Company Source: Morgan Stanley First Capital Research Aug 2019 11 Athleisure: The emerging trend which is becoming the new normal Asia Could Be Biggest Contributor to Athletic-Wear Sales Nike, the global titan in athletic wear (a Tier 1 client of MGT) Growth continued to dominate as the world’s most valuable apparel brand 20 35,000 20% 18 16% 17% 18 30,000 15% 14 2.2 16 1.5 2 10% 1.1 1.8 25,000 14 0 6% 5% 20,000 12 5.7 6.1 7.2 5.2 6.5 7 0% 10 USD USD Bn USD USD Mn 15,000 -5% 8 10,000 3.1 4.1 4.5 -10% 6 4.4 4.4 4.6 5,000 4 -15% 5.5 4.9 -16% 4.3 3.6 3.7 3.8 2 0 -20% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Nike Zara Adidas H&M North America Europe Asia Latin America 2018 2019 Annual Growth in Brand Value Source: The State of fashion 2019 by the McKinsey & Company Source: Brand Finance Apparel 50 2019 Athleisure describes the trend for wearing workout wear all day. With the increasing trend in the younger generation aiming to be more fit and healthy, and people opting to wear more comfortable and casual clothes for working out, giant athletic brands have started to become more athleisure wear brands, with a new market emerging where active clothing can swiftly be turned into casual and leisurewear clothing. Over the last decade, athletic wear has gained so much popularity that it has carved out a place of its own in the apparel industry, leading to the term “athleisure” (athletics + leisure). First Capital Research Aug 2019 12 Expansion into premium priced Synthetic fabrics to enhance topline MGT’s Athleisure (made from synthetic) surpassed Synthetic generates a relatively higher NP margin compared to cotton Babywear manufactured from cotton 14% 12% 20% 12% 25% 18% 32% 10% 8% 22% 6% 15% 5% 2018 4% 28% 40% 2019 2% 0% Babywear Athleisure Lingerie (Intimates) Others Synthetic Cotton Source: MGT Annual Report FY19 Source: MGT Annual Report FY19 First Capital Research Aug 2019 13 “Inno”: MGT coming into its own Growing Order Pipeline for MGT “Inno” generated a higher margin compared to other products (FY19) 3000 14,000 Revenue GP Margins 35% 2500 2500 12,000 30% 30% 2250 2250 2250 2250 2100 2000 10,000 25% 8,000 20% MT 1500 6,000 15% GP Margin 1000 Revenue (LKR Mn) 11% 4,000 10% 500 2,000 5% 0 0 0% 2019 Q3 2019 Q4 2020 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 Inno Other Products Source: MGT Annual Report FY19 Source: MGT Annual Report FY19 Company developed its own branded portfolio of synthetic fabric called “Inno” which addresses several issues with the supply chain. Improved pricing from “Inno” and other synthetic fabric products is expected to improve margins of MGT. First Capital Research Aug 2019 14 MGT’s tier 1 clients are among major global fashion brands MGT’s Tier 1 clients are among major global fashion brands Tier 1 clients accounted for major portion of the order book 45% 55% Tier 1 clients Other Source: First Capital Research Source: First Capital Research MGT’s order book comprised of large portion of Tier 1 customers namely Nike, Victoria’s Secret’s, Intimissimi and Decathlon who provide a higher average selling price to MGT compared to Tier 2 customers.
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