Identifying Climate Refugia for Key Species in New South Wales - Final Report from the Bionode of the NSW Adaptation Hub

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Identifying Climate Refugia for Key Species in New South Wales - Final Report from the Bionode of the NSW Adaptation Hub Identifying Climate Refugia for Key Species in New South Wales - Final Report from the BioNode of the NSW Adaptation Hub Linda J. Beaumont, John B. Baumgartner, Manuel Esperón-Rodríguez, David Nipperess 1 | P a g e Report prepared for the NSW Office of Environment and Heritage as part of a project funded by the NSW Adaptation Research Hub–Biodiversity Node. While every effort has been made to ensure all information within this document has been developed using rigorous scientific practice, readers should obtain independent advice before making any decision based on this information. Cite this publication as: Beaumont, L. J., Baumgartner, J. B., Esperón-Rodríguez, M, & Nipperess, D. (2019). Identifying climate refugia for key species in New South Wales - Final report from the BioNode of the NSW Adaptation Hub, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia. For further correspondence contact: [email protected] 2 | P a g e Contents Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................................. 5 Abbreviations .......................................................................................................................................... 6 Glossary ................................................................................................................................................... 7 Executive summary ................................................................................................................................. 8 Highlights for Managers ........................................................................................................................ 10 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................................. 11 1.1 Species-specific refugia ............................................................................................................... 13 1.2 Choice of future climate scenarios for impacts assessments ............................................... 15 1.3 Objectives of this study ......................................................................................................... 16 2. Target Species ............................................................................................................................... 16 2.1 Identification of ‘representative’ plant species .......................................................................... 17 2.2 Threatened species ............................................................................................................... 17 2.3 Occurrence records ............................................................................................................... 18 3. Methods ........................................................................................................................................ 19 3.1 Derivation of climate data .......................................................................................................... 19 3.2 Environmental variables for HSMs ........................................................................................ 25 3.3 Habitat Suitability Model ...................................................................................................... 26 3.4 Current Habitat Suitability .................................................................................................... 28 3.5 Identifying climate refugia for species .................................................................................. 29 3.5.1 Representative Species ........................................................................................................ 30 3.5.2 Threatened Species .............................................................................................................. 30 3.6 Analyses ................................................................................................................................ 31 4. Results ........................................................................................................................................... 31 4.1 Projected changes in suitable habitat for representative species .............................................. 31 4.2 Current and future suitable habitat for threatened species ................................................ 48 5 Discussion ........................................................................................................................................... 64 5.1 Refugia for representative species ............................................................................................. 64 5.2 Refugia for threatened species ................................................................................................... 68 5.2.1 What are the limitations or caveats of this study? .............................................................. 71 5.2.2 Additional factors impacting species’ vulnerability to climate change ............................... 72 5.3 Future research directions .......................................................................................................... 74 5.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................................................. 75 6 References ......................................................................................................................................... 77 7 Appendix ........................................................................................................................................ 82 3 | P a g e 4 | P a g e Acknowledgements This project was funded by the New South Wales Office of Environment and Heritage (OEH) via a grant administered by the NSW Adaptation Research Hub: Biodiversity Node. We thank the following people at NSW OEH who provided guidance on species selection and/or analyses: Polly Mitchell, Dr David Keith, Dr James Brazill-Boast, Dr Michael Drielsma, Dr Tony Auld, and Corinna Orscheg, Dr Ian Macadam, and Prof Jason Evans provided vital advice about NARCliM, while Leigh Staas and Victoria Graham supported this project administratively. We also thank Stuart Allen for his expertise with establishing the website that accompanies this report (www.nswclimaterefugia.net) and Mareshell Wauchope-Drumm for assistance with developing this report. 5 | P a g e Abbreviations AUC—Area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve ALA—Atlas of Living Australia AVH—Australasian Virtual Herbarium BCC—Bioclimatic Class DXS—Deserts and Xeric Shrublands GCM—Global Climate Model GER—Great Eastern Ranges HRR—High Richness Refugia HSM—Habitat Suitability Model MFWS—Mediterranean Forests, Woodlands and Scrub MGS—Montane Grasslands and Shrublands NARCliM—NSW/ACT Regional Climate Modelling NSW—New South Wales OEH Atlas—Office of Environment and Heritage BioNet Atlas RCM—Regional Climate Model SD—Standard deviation TBMF—Temperate Broadleaf and Mixed Forests TGSS—Temperate Grasslands, Savannas and Shrublands TrGSS—Tropical/Subtropical Grasslands, Savannas and Shrublands 6 | P a g e Glossary Areas with translocation potential: These are grid cells that are projected to have suitable climate now and in the future, but for which there are no high quality occurrences for the target species. Such sites may be explored further to determine their capacity to support species’ persistence. External refugia: Grid cells that are currently unsuitable but are projected to become suitable in the future. High quality occurrence records: Records of species’ occurrences that remain after undergoing data cleaning. These records were used to fit habitat suitability models. IBRA subregions: Subregions make up IBRA (Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia) Bioregions and contain areas that have similar geology, vegetation and other biophysical attributes, and form the basis for determining the major regional ecosystems (http://www.environment.nsw.gov.au/bioregions/BioregionsExplained.htm). Internal refugia: Grid cells classified as suitable for the target species in the current time period, which remain suitable over consecutive future time periods and are located within an IBRA subregion that has one or more high quality occurrence records. Multi-species refugia: Areas that serve as internal refugia for multiple species. Occurrence records: Records of species’ occurrences derived from sources such as the Atlas of Living Australia, NSW OEH BioNet Atlas, and the Victorian Biodiversity Atlas. Refugia: Grid cells classified as retaining suitable climate across consecutive time periods. Regions of consensus: Grid cells classified as refugia under all of the climate scenarios. 7 | P a g e Executive summary Rapid climate change poses a significant threat to biodiversity at all levels of biological organisation. Detrimental effects have already been observed, including shifts in species’ ranges, altered timing of key seasonal events leading to phenological mismatches between interacting species, and extinction of populations and species. As was the case during historical periods of climate change, climate refugia — areas retaining suitable habitat despite regional climate change — are likely to be critical in preventing considerable loss of biodiversity. For some species, regions where populations are currently located may continue to be climatically suitable into the future, and such regions are termed ‘internal refugia’. Identifying internal
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