Hama Governorate, February 2018 OVERALL FINDINGS1
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The Syrian National Council: a Victorious Opposition?
THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES IMES CAPSTONE PAPER SERIES THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? JARED MARKLAND KRITTIKA LALWANEY MAY 2012 THE INSTITUTE FOR MIDDLE EAST STUDIES THE ELLIOTT SCHOOL OF INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS THE GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY COPYRIGHT OF THE AUTHOR(S), 2012 THE SYRIAN NATIONAL COUNCIL: A VICTORIOUS OPPOSITION? Jared Markland & Krittika Lalwaney Introduction The Syrian National Council (SNC) emerged as an opposition movement representing the democratic uprisings in Syria calling for regime change. The Assad regime’s forceful measures against Syrians have delegitimized the government and empowered the revolution. The success of the revolution, in overthrowing the regime hinges on the Syrian opposition’s ability to overcome its deficiencies. This paper analyzes the performance of the SNC by determining SNC success or failure to launch a successful opposition movement against the regime. The SNC’s probability of success in the overthrow of the regime is contingent on its ability to unify internally, obtain financial capacity, establish international recognition, and build internal popular support. Methodology The methods used to examine the prospects for success of the SNC as a viable opposition movement consist of comparative case studies and qualitative field research. We examined four case studies, including Nicaragua, Libya, El Salvador and Guatemala. These cases establish a set of core factors necessary for an opposition movement to succeed. The utilization of these factors allows us to create a comparative assessment of the overall performance of the SNC. Our qualitative fieldwork entailed a total of 32 interviews with current SNC members, Syrian activists, refugees, Free Syrian Army members, academic experts, and government officials. -
Syria: "Torture Was My Punishment": Abductions, Torture and Summary
‘TORTURE WAS MY PUNISHMENT’ ABDUCTIONS, TORTURE AND SUMMARY KILLINGS UNDER ARMED GROUP RULE IN ALEPPO AND IDLEB, SYRIA Amnesty International is a global movement of more than 7 million people who campaign for a world where human rights are enjoyed by all. Our vision is for every person to enjoy all the rights enshrined in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights and other international human rights standards. We are independent of any government, political ideology, economic interest or religion and are funded mainly by our membership and public donations. © Amnesty International 2016 Cover photo: Armed group fighters prepare to launch a rocket in the Saif al-Dawla district of the Except where otherwise noted, content in this document is licensed under a Creative Commons northern Syrian city of Aleppo, on 21 April 2013. (attribution, non-commercial, no derivatives, international 4.0) licence. © Miguel Medina/AFP/Getty Images https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/legalcode For more information please visit the permissions page on our website: www.amnesty.org Where material is attributed to a copyright owner other than Amnesty International this material is not subject to the Creative Commons licence. First published in 2016 by Amnesty International Ltd Peter Benenson House, 1 Easton Street London WC1X 0DW, UK Index: MDE 24/4227/2016 July 2016 Original language: English amnesty.org CONTENTS EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 4 METHODOLOGY 7 1. BACKGROUND 9 1.1 Armed group rule in Aleppo and Idleb 9 1.2 Violations by other actors 13 2. ABDUCTIONS 15 2.1 Journalists and media activists 15 2.2 Lawyers, political activists and others 18 2.3 Children 21 2.4 Minorities 22 3. -
The Potential for an Assad Statelet in Syria
THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSAD STATELET IN SYRIA Nicholas A. Heras THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ASSAD STATELET IN SYRIA Nicholas A. Heras policy focus 132 | december 2013 the washington institute for near east policy www.washingtoninstitute.org The opinions expressed in this Policy Focus are those of the author and not necessar- ily those of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, its Board of Trustees, or its Board of Advisors. MAPS Fig. 1 based on map designed by W.D. Langeraar of Michael Moran & Associates that incorporates data from National Geographic, Esri, DeLorme, NAVTEQ, UNEP- WCMC, USGS, NASA, ESA, METI, NRCAN, GEBCO, NOAA, and iPC. Figs. 2, 3, and 4: detail from The Tourist Atlas of Syria, Syria Ministry of Tourism, Directorate of Tourist Relations, Damascus. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publica- tion may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. © 2013 by The Washington Institute for Near East Policy The Washington Institute for Near East Policy 1828 L Street NW, Suite 1050 Washington, DC 20036 Cover: Digitally rendered montage incorporating an interior photo of the tomb of Hafez al-Assad and a partial view of the wheel tapestry found in the Sheikh Daher Shrine—a 500-year-old Alawite place of worship situated in an ancient grove of wild oak; both are situated in al-Qurdaha, Syria. Photographs by Andrew Tabler/TWI; design and montage by 1000colors. -
Russian Private Military Companies: Continuity and Evolution of the Model
Russia Foreign Policy Papers Anna Borshchevskaya All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, recording, or any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher. Author: Anna Borshchevskaya Eurasia Program Leadership Director: Chris Miller Deputy Director: Maia Otarashvili Edited by: Thomas J. Shattuck Designed by: Natalia Kopytnik © 2019 by the Foreign Policy Research Institute December 2019 COVER: Designed by Natalia Kopytnik. Our Mission The Foreign Policy Research Institute is dedicated to bringing the insights of scholarship to bear on the foreign policy and national security challenges facing the United States. It seeks to educate the public, teach teachers, train students, and offer ideas to advance U.S. national interests based on a nonpartisan, geopolitical perspective that illuminates contemporary international affairs through the lens of history, geography, and culture. Offering Ideas In an increasingly polarized world, we pride ourselves on our tradition of nonpartisan scholarship. We count among our ranks over 100 affiliated scholars located throughout the nation and the world who appear regularly in national and international media, testify on Capitol Hill, and are consulted by U.S. government agencies. Educating the American Public FPRI was founded on the premise that an informed and educated citizenry is paramount for the U.S. to conduct a coherent foreign policy. Through in-depth research and events on issues spanning the geopolitical spectrum, FPRI offers insights to help the public understand our volatile world. Championing Civic Literacy We believe that a robust civic education is a national imperative. -
Policy Notes for the Trump Notes Administration the Washington Institute for Near East Policy ■ 2018 ■ Pn55
TRANSITION 2017 POLICYPOLICY NOTES FOR THE TRUMP NOTES ADMINISTRATION THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ 2018 ■ PN55 TUNISIAN FOREIGN FIGHTERS IN IRAQ AND SYRIA AARON Y. ZELIN Tunisia should really open its embassy in Raqqa, not Damascus. That’s where its people are. —ABU KHALED, AN ISLAMIC STATE SPY1 THE PAST FEW YEARS have seen rising interest in foreign fighting as a general phenomenon and in fighters joining jihadist groups in particular. Tunisians figure disproportionately among the foreign jihadist cohort, yet their ubiquity is somewhat confounding. Why Tunisians? This study aims to bring clarity to this question by examining Tunisia’s foreign fighter networks mobilized to Syria and Iraq since 2011, when insurgencies shook those two countries amid the broader Arab Spring uprisings. ©2018 THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. THE WASHINGTON INSTITUTE FOR NEAR EAST POLICY ■ NO. 30 ■ JANUARY 2017 AARON Y. ZELIN Along with seeking to determine what motivated Evolution of Tunisian Participation these individuals, it endeavors to reconcile estimated in the Iraq Jihad numbers of Tunisians who actually traveled, who were killed in theater, and who returned home. The find- Although the involvement of Tunisians in foreign jihad ings are based on a wide range of sources in multiple campaigns predates the 2003 Iraq war, that conflict languages as well as data sets created by the author inspired a new generation of recruits whose effects since 2011. Another way of framing the discussion will lasted into the aftermath of the Tunisian revolution. center on Tunisians who participated in the jihad fol- These individuals fought in groups such as Abu Musab lowing the 2003 U.S. -
Civilians in Hama
Syria: 13 Civilians Kidnapped by Security Services and Affiliate Militias in Hama www.stj-sy.org Syria: 13 Civilians Kidnapped by Security Services and Affiliate Militias in Hama Two young men were kidnapped by the National Defense Militia; the other 11, belonging to the same family, were abducted by a security service in Hama city. The abductees were all released in return for a ransom Page | 2 Syria: 13 Civilians Kidnapped by Security Services and Affiliate Militias in Hama www.stj-sy.org In November 2018 and February 2019, 13 civilians belonging to two different families were kidnapped by security services and the militias backing them in Hama province. The kidnapped persons were all released after a separate ransom was paid by each of the families. Following their release, a number of the survivors, 11 to be exact, chose to leave Hama to settle in Idlib province. The field researchers of Syrians for Truth and Justice/STJ contacted several of the abduction survivors’ relatives, who reported that some of the abductees were subjected to severe torture and deprived of medications, which caused one of them an acute health deterioration. 1. The Kidnapping of Brothers Jihad and Abduljabar al- Saleh: The two young men, Jihad, 28-year-old, and Abduljabar, 25-year-old, are from the village of al-Tharwat, eastern rural Hama, from which they were displaced after the Syrian regular forces took over the area late in 2017, to settle in an IDP camp in Sarmada city. The brothers, then, decided to undergo legalization of status/sign a reconciliation agreement with the Syrian government to obtain passports and move in Saudi Arabia, where their family is based. -
Reforming the Syrian Arab Army: Russia’S Vision Yury Barmin, RIAC
Discussion Paper (4) Reforming the Syrian Arab Army: Russia’s vision Yury Barmin, RIAC Discussion paper for the workshop on: “The emerging security dynamics and the political settlement in Syria”, Syracuse, Italy, 18-19 October 2018 1 The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) The Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) is an international foundation established in 1995, with 52-member states, for the primary purpose of promoting peace, security and international cooperation through executive education, applied policy research and dialogue. The GCSP trains government officials, diplomats, military officers, international civil servants and NGO and private sector staff in pertinent fields of international peace and security. Omran for Strategic Studies An independent think tank and policy centre focusing on presenting an objective understanding of Syria and the region to become a reference for public policies impacting the region. Omran began in November 2013 in Istanbul, Turkey. It publishes studies and policy briefs on Syrian and regional affairs in the areas of politics, economic development and local administration. Omran also conducts round-table discussions, seminars and workshops that promote a more systematic and methodical culture of decision making among the future leaders of Syria. Omran’s work supports decision-making mechanisms, provides practical solutions and policy recommendations to decision-makers, identifies challenges within the Syrian context, and foresees scenarios and alternative solutions. Yury Barmin Yury Barmin, is the Director for the Middle East and North Africa at MPG, a Moscow-based political consulting firm. He is a fellow at the Russian International Affairs Council covering the Middle East and North Africa, Moscow’s policy towards the region as well as the conflict in Syria. -
SYRIA, YEAR 2020: Update on Incidents According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) Compiled by ACCORD, 25 March 2021
SYRIA, YEAR 2020: Update on incidents according to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) compiled by ACCORD, 25 March 2021 Number of reported incidents with at least one fatality Number of reported fatalities National borders: GADM, 6 May 2018a; administrative divisions: GADM, 6 May 2018b; incid- ent data: ACLED, 12 March 2021; coastlines and inland waters: Smith and Wessel, 1 May 2015 SYRIA, YEAR 2020: UPDATE ON INCIDENTS ACCORDING TO THE ARMED CONFLICT LOCATION & EVENT DATA PROJECT (ACLED) COMPILED BY ACCORD, 25 MARCH 2021 Contents Conflict incidents by category Number of Number of reported fatalities 1 Number of Number of Category incidents with at incidents fatalities Number of reported incidents with at least one fatality 1 least one fatality Explosions / Remote Conflict incidents by category 2 6187 930 2751 violence Development of conflict incidents from 2017 to 2020 2 Battles 2465 1111 4206 Strategic developments 1517 2 2 Methodology 3 Violence against civilians 1389 760 997 Conflict incidents per province 4 Protests 449 2 4 Riots 55 4 15 Localization of conflict incidents 4 Total 12062 2809 7975 Disclaimer 9 This table is based on data from ACLED (datasets used: ACLED, 12 March 2021). Development of conflict incidents from 2017 to 2020 This graph is based on data from ACLED (datasets used: ACLED, 12 March 2021). 2 SYRIA, YEAR 2020: UPDATE ON INCIDENTS ACCORDING TO THE ARMED CONFLICT LOCATION & EVENT DATA PROJECT (ACLED) COMPILED BY ACCORD, 25 MARCH 2021 Methodology GADM. Incidents that could not be located are ignored. The numbers included in this overview might therefore differ from the original ACLED data. -
Hama Governorate, April 2018 OVERALL FINDINGS1
Hama Governorate, April 2018 Humanitarian Situation Overview in Syria (HSOS) OVERALL FINDINGS1 Coverage Hama governorate, located on the banks of the Orontes River, is positioned to the south of Idleb governorate and the north of Homs governorate. Offensives against the group known as the so-called Ziyara Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) throughout mid-2017 and into early 2018 have resulted in ALEPPO large-scale displacement, both within and out of the governorate to neighbouring Idleb. In April, conflict in Northern Hama governorate between opposition groups, ISIL, and government forces intensified. As a IDLEB result of prolonged conflict,33 of the 82 assessed communities estimated that less than 50% of pre-conflict Shat- populations remained. Additionally, Key Informants (KIs) in 24 of the assessed communities reported that ha further pre-conflict populations left their communities in April, primarily due to an escalation in conflict. Madiq Castle However, Mahruseh and Ankawi communities both experienced spontaneous IDP returns, approximately Hamra 208 in total2. Additionally, Mahruseh community also experienced approximately 67 spontaneous refugee returnees from Jordan, Turkey, and Lebanon in April. Please see the IDP Situation Monitoring Initiative As-SuqaylabiyahKarnaz Kafr Zeita (ISMI) April 2018 monthly report for further analysis. Suran Tell Salhib In 6 of the assessed communities, all in Hama and As-Suqaylabiyah districts, KIs estimated that between Muhradah 51-100% of the buildings in their communities were damaged. Additionally, seven communities reported that there was no electricity source available. In terms of water, 30 of the assessed communities reported Jeb Ramleh having an insufficient amount of water to meet household needs. -
To Read the Full Report As a PDF, Follow This Link
Arbitrary Deprivation of Truth and Life An accurate, transparent, and non-discriminatory approach must be adopted by the Syrian State when issuing “death statements” 1 2 Executive Summary Hostilities forced Samar al-Hasan, 40, and her family to flee their home in Ma'arrat al-Nu'man city and settle in a makeshift camp in Harem city, within rural Idlib province. Before the family fled, Samar’s husband was killed in a regime rocket attack on their neighborhood. Now, Samar lives with her children in her family’s tent, unable to afford taking care of her children or herself without help. One source of her financial troubles is the Syrian government’s refusal to give Samar her husband’s death statement, a document which would allow her and her children to access her husband’s will. The wrinkles on Samar’s forehead speak of her suffering since her husband’s death in 2018. Even as she wistfully recalls for Syrians for Truth and Justice the comfortable years she spent in Ma'arrat al-Nu'man with her husband, she knows they will never return. A “death statement” formally documents the death of a person. Obtaining a death statement allows a widow to remarry – if she wishes – after the passage of her “Iddah”.1 A death statement is also required to initiate a ‘determination of heirship’ procedure by the deceased's heirs (incl. the wife, children, parents, and siblings). In Syria, “death statements” are distinct from “death certificates”. A death certificate is the document that confirms the occurrence of death, issued by the responsible local authorities or the institution in which the death took place, such as hospitals and prisons, or by the “Mukhtar” – the village or district chief, who keeps a local civil registry. -
Flash Update | Monitoring Violence Against Healthcare Health Sector
Flash Update | Monitoring violence against healthcare Health Sector | Syria Hub Flash Update # 36 Date: 06/06/2019 Time of the incident: between 6.15 to 7.30 p.m. Location North-West Hama, Mahardah City HF Name & Type Al-Mahabah private hospital Attack type Violence with heavy weapons Incident On Thursday 6 June between 6.15 to 7.30 p.m., Al-Mahabah private hospital in North West Hama was reportedly targeted by Indirect rockets three times. Prior Health Facility The hospital was fully functioning, partially damaged, provided: 120 condition out-consultations (x-ray), 350-400 surgical operations (including CSs), 75-80 normal deliveries, 30 babies in incubator, 50 hospitalized patients during May 2019 Impact . The hospital was reportedly partially damaged, as follow: - Main façade, most glasses of the hospital were destroyed. - Some rooms (emergency room, general surgery, one patient room) have become out of service. - 10 air conditioners were destroyed. Victims of the Attack Total Deaths: (0) Health Care Providers: 0 Auxiliary Health Staff: 0 Patients: 0 Others: 0 -------------------------------------------------------- Males: 0 Females: 0 -------------------------------------------------------- Age < 15 years: 0 Age ≥ 15 years: 0 Total Injuries: (0) Health Care Providers: 0 Auxiliary Health Staff: 0 Patients: 0 Others: 0 -------------------------------------------------------- Males: 0 Females: 0 -------------------------------------------------------- Age < 15 years: 0 Age ≥ 15 years: 0 Disclaimer: The information presented in this document do not imply the opinion of the World Health Organization. Information were gathered through adopted tools (i.e., HeRAMS) & other sources of information, and all possible means have been taken by the World Health Organization to verify the information contained in this document. However, the published material is being distributed without warranty of any kind, either expressed or implied. -
The Syrian Civil War a New Stage, but Is It the Final One?
THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR A NEW STAGE, BUT IS IT THE FINAL ONE? ROBERT S. FORD APRIL 2019 POLICY PAPER 2019-8 CONTENTS * SUMMARY * 1 INTRODUCTION * 3 BEGINNING OF THE CONFLICT, 2011-14 * 4 DYNAMICS OF THE WAR, 2015-18 * 11 FAILED NEGOTIATIONS * 14 BRINGING THE CONFLICT TO A CLOSE * 18 CONCLUSION © The Middle East Institute The Middle East Institute 1319 18th Street NW Washington, D.C. 20036 SUMMARY Eight years on, the Syrian civil war is finally winding down. The government of Bashar al-Assad has largely won, but the cost has been steep. The economy is shattered, there are more than 5 million Syrian refugees abroad, and the government lacks the resources to rebuild. Any chance that the Syrian opposition could compel the regime to negotiate a national unity government that limited or ended Assad’s role collapsed with the entry of the Russian military in mid- 2015 and the Obama administration’s decision not to counter-escalate. The country remains divided into three zones, each in the hands of a different group and supported by foreign forces. The first, under government control with backing from Iran and Russia, encompasses much of the country, and all of its major cities. The second, in the east, is in the hands of a Kurdish-Arab force backed by the U.S. The third, in the northwest, is under Turkish control, with a mix of opposition forces dominated by Islamic extremists. The Syrian government will not accept partition and is ultimately likely to reassert its control in the eastern and northwestern zones.