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© 2005 International Monetary Fund November 2005 IMF Country Report No. 05/415 [Month, Day], 2001 August 2, 2001 January 29, 2001 [Month, Day], 2001 August 2, 2001 Ukraine: 2005 Article IV Consultation and Ex Post Assessment of Longer-Term Program Engagement—Staff Reports; Staff Supplement; and Public Information Notice on the Executive Board Discussion Under Article IV of the IMF's Articles of Agreement, the IMF holds bilateral discussions with members, usually every year. In the context of the 2005 Article IV consultation with Ukraine, the following documents have been released and are included in this package: • the staff report for the 2005 Article IV consultation, prepared by a staff team of the IMF, following discussions that ended on August 2, 2005, with the officials of Ukraine on economic developments and policies. Based on information available at the time of these discussions, the staff report was completed on October 18, 2005. The views expressed in the staff report are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Board of the IMF. • a staff supplement of November 4, 2005 updating information on recent developments. • a staff report on ex post assessment of longer-term program engagement, which was completed October 18, 2005. • a Public Information Notice (PIN) summarizing the views of the Executive Board as expressed during its November 9, 2005 discussion of the staff report that concluded the Article IV consultation. The documents listed below have been or will be separately released. Selected Issues Paper Statistical Appendix The policy of publication of staff reports and other documents allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information. To assist the IMF in evaluating the publication policy, reader comments are invited and may be sent by e-mail to [email protected]. Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services 700 19th Street, N.W. • Washington, D.C. 20431 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Telefax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail: [email protected] • Internet: http://www.imf.org Price: $15.00 a copy International Monetary Fund Washington, D.C. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution This page intentionally left blank ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND UKRAINE Staff Report for the 2005 Article IV Consultation Prepared by the European Department (In consultation with other departments) Approved by Reza Moghadam and Michael T. Hadjimichael October 18, 2005 • Article IV consultation discussions were held in Kyiv during July 25-August 2, and were continued at the Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C. on September 22-26, 2005. The Ex Post Assessment (EPA) of Ukraine's longer-term program engagement with the Fund was also discussed at the Annual Meetings. The mission met with NBU Governor Stelmakh, Minister of Finance Pynzenyk, other senior officials, and representatives of the diplomatic community, financial institutions, think tanks, and entrepreneurs' associations. • The mission comprised Mr. Jaeger (Head), Mr. Rossi, Ms. Schaechter, Mr. Tiffin (all EUR), Mr. Flanagan (FAD), Mr. Halikias (PDR), and Ms. Ong (MFD), and was assisted by Mr. Franks, Senior Resident Representative. Mr. Yakusha (OED) participated in the discussions. • A 12-month Stand-By Arrangement treated as precautionary by the authorities expired in March 2005. • Ukraine has accepted the obligations of Article VIII, Sections 2, 3, and 4, and maintains an exchange rate system that is free of restrictions on the making of payments and transfers for current international transactions. The country has subscribed to the Fund's Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) since 2003, and its data provision to the Fund is broadly adequate for surveillance, albeit with some shortcomings (Appendix IV). • The authorities published the mission's concluding statement on August 24, 2005. • The previous consultation was concluded on October 25, 2004. The conclusions of the Executive Board's discussions and country documents were made available at www.imf.org on January 24, 2005. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 2 - Contents Page Executive Summary...................................................................................................................4 Glossary.....................................................................................................................................5 I. Introduction............................................................................................................................6 II. Background...........................................................................................................................6 A. Recent Growth and Inflation Developments.............................................................6 B. External Sector Developments..................................................................................9 C. Macroeconomic Policies.........................................................................................11 D. Financial Sector Developments..............................................................................16 III. Report on the Discussions..................................................................................................18 A. Key Issues...............................................................................................................18 B. Fiscal Policy............................................................................................................18 C. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy......................................................................20 D. Near-Term Outlook.................................................................................................23 E. Institutional Reforms and Medium-Term Framework............................................25 F. Financial Sector Issues and Vulnerabilities.............................................................29 G. Trade Policy............................................................................................................31 H. Statistics..................................................................................................................31 IV. Relations with the Fund.....................................................................................................32 V. Staff Appraisal....................................................................................................................33 Boxes 1. Impact of Recent Staff Advice...............................................................................................7 2. Preparing Inflation Targeting...............................................................................................22 Figures 1. Ukraine: Inflation, 2002±05...................................................................................................8 2. Ukraine: External Sector Developments, 2000±05..............................................................10 3. Ukraine: Fiscal Policy, 2000±05..........................................................................................12 4. Ukraine: Monetary Indicators, 2000±05..............................................................................13 5. Ukraine: Indicators of Competitiveness, 1995±2005...........................................................15 6. Ukraine: Financial Sector Developments, 2000±05............................................................17 7. Ukraine: Institutions and Production Efficiency, 1998±2004..............................................26 8. Ukraine: Public Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests..............................................................28 9. Ukraine: External Debt Sustainability: Bound Tests...........................................................30 ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 3 - Tables 1. Ukraine: Selected Economic and Social Indicators, 2001±06.............................................36 2. Ukraine: Medium-Term Balance of Payments, 2001±10....................................................37 3. Ukraine: General Government Finances, 2003±06..............................................................38 4. Ukraine: Monetary Accounts, 2001±06...............................................................................40 5. Ukraine: Financial Soundness Indicators for the Banking Sector, 2000±05.......................41 7. Ukraine: Selected Vulnerability Indicators, 2001±05..........................................................43 8. Ukraine: Public Sector Debt Sustainability Framework, 2000±10......................................44 9. Ukraine: External Debt Sustainability Framework, 2000±10..............................................45 10. Ukraine: Selected Actions Agreed Under the 2005 Ukraine-EU Action Plan..................46 Appendices Appendix I. Fund Relations.....................................................................................................48 Appendix II. Relations with the World Bank..........................................................................53 Appendix III. Relations with the EBRD..................................................................................55 Appendix IV. Statistical Issues................................................................................................58 Appendix Table Table of Common Indicators Required for Surveillance.........................................................61
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