Clonsilla – M3 Interchange Railway Line Feasibility Study Department New Works Date January 2005 www .irishrail.ie Clonsilla – M3 Interchange Railway Line Feasibility Study Final Report Table of Contents Page Executive Summary 4 Section 1 : Background and Study Remit 6 Section 2 : Demand & Revenue Assessment 8 2.1 Demand Modelling 8 2.2 Assumptions 8 2.3 Key Findings 10 2.4 Sensitivity Analysis 11 2.5 Wider Issues 11 2.6 Conclusions of Demand Assessment 11 Section 3 : Operational Feasibility and Service Options 12 3.1 Existing Rail Network 12 3.2 City Centre Capacity Constraints 12 3.3 Maynooth Line Services 13 3.4 Central Area Capacity Enhancement 14 Section 4 : Infrastructure & Capital Costs 16 4.1 Existing Route Description 16 4.2 Preliminary Environmental Impact Assessment 18 4.3 Hydrological Survey 20 4.4 Structural Survey 21 4.5 Route Options examined 21 4.6 Chosen Option 22 4.7 Property Requirements 23 4.8 Capital Cost Estimates and Assumptions 23 Section 5 : Operating Costs 25 5.1 Assumptions 25 5.2 Cost Items 25 5.3 Financial Analysis 25 Section 6 : Financial Cost Benefit Analysis 26 6.1 Capital and Operating Costs 26 6.2 Financial Evaluation 26 Section 7 : Economic Cost Benefit Analysis 27 7.1 Do Minimum 27 7.2 Capital and Operating Costs 27 7.3 Benefits 27 7.4 Economic Evaluation 28 Date: January 2005 Project No.C128 Page 2 of 33 Version 2 Clonsilla – M3 Interchange Railway Line Feasibility Study Final Report Section 8 : Funding the Project 29 8.1 Funding Options 29 Section 9 : Phasing the Project 31 Appendices Appendix 1 Location Map Date: January 2005 Project No.C128 Page 3 of 33 Version 2 Clonsilla – M3 Interchange Railway Line Feasibility Study Final Report EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Background In 1963 the former Clonsilla to Navan railway was closed down after eighty five years. In recent years it has become the subject of a number of different reports and studies as increasing pressure has been applied to reopen the route. The rapidly growing commuter belt is a driving force behind the arguments to reopen the line. The Strategic Rail Review of 2003 (Booz, Allen, Hamilton) came to the conclusion that there was no economic case for reopening the entire line to Navan. The shorter section of Clonsilla to Dunboyne(M3) was not considered at that time but is the focus of this report. This feasibility study was undertaken with the support of Meath and Fingal County Councils and the Dublin Transportation Office. Feasibility Study This study assesses the feasibility of reopening the line addressing any issues and problems that might prohibit the project and examines broadly the cost of the undertaking. An assessment of the operating costs, the demand and possible revenue yield and the operational feasibility and possible service options were addressed to enable a financial and economic assessment to be undertaken. To assist in assessing the feasibility of the project a number of reports were commissioned externally– preliminary environmental impact assessment, structural study and surface water study. These highlighted potential risk areas to the project, which could then be assessed for their impact on the project. Further detailed reports will be required to tease out these issues at detailed design stage should the project be progressed to the next stage. These reports and other Iarnród Éireann internal reviews enabled the engineering and technical assessments to be undertaken. Operational Issues The proposed line between Clonsilla and the M3 Interchange at Pace is 7.5km in length. Three stations are proposed at Hansfield, Dunboyne and a major park and ride station at the M3 Interchange. A 15 minute peak hour service is proposed, with a thirty minute off peak service. From the outset it was noted that the ability to reopen a line from the M3 Interchange at Pace to Clonsilla, bringing passengers into the city centre, was entirely dependent on a city centre capacity resolution. The capacity of the city centre corridor (Connolly-Pearse) is at its limit and without a resolution no additional services, including this proposed service from M3 Interchange at Pace, would be feasible. The resolution of this issue is outside the scope of this project but will be a determining factor on if and when the project could proceed. Date: January 2005 Project No.C128 Page 4 of 33 Version 2 Clonsilla – M3 Interchange Railway Line Feasibility Study Final Report Capital Cost The total cost of re-opening the line and acquiring trains is estimated at €156m comprising Railway Infrastructure €68m Property Acquisition €40m Diesel Railcars €48m Total €156m It is estimated that the annual patronage will be 2.0m yielding revenues of €3.0m. The annual operating costs are projected at €3.3m. The service will, at best, cover its direct operating costs and would not generate profits to fund financing or depreciation costs. The project is therefore not financially viable and has a negative financial net present value of €194m. When wider economic social benefits are taken into account (time savings, accident savings, environmental benefits, decongestion benefits etc. the project yields a positive rate of return (€105m) and yields an internal rate of return of 10%. The project is economically viable. Funding The project cannot finance itself from operating profits and would have to be funded externally. There is little scope for Public Private Partnership although there is significant potential for private sector contributions through development levies in both Fingal and Meath County Council. A Section 49 Development Contribution Scheme should be introduced to part-finance the railway project. Additional development should be encouraged adjacent to the railway line to maximise patronage and increase levy contributions along the route. Land required for railway purposes adjacent to planned developments should be ceded free to the project. Further study is required to determine the maximum potential of development levies. The balance of costs can only be funded by the Exchequer and the bulk of the initial costs would have to be borne by the Exchequer with levies flowing over a longer period. Phasing The issue of city centre track capacity is critical and must be addressed as a priority by Iarnród Éireann. The Clonsilla to M3 Interchange project can proceed in tandem. A Railway Order will be required since the land is no longer in Iarnród Éireann/CIE ownership. Allowing for design, Railway Order and tender and construction, the project would take 4 to 5 years to complete from date of approval. Date: January 2005 Project No.C128 Page 5 of 33 Version 2 Clonsilla – M3 Interchange Railway Line Feasibility Study Final Report SECTION 1 - BACKGROUND AND STUDY REMIT The Line The former Clonsilla to Navan railway opened in 1862. The line served Dunboyne, Fairyhouse, Dunshaughlin and a number of other villages en route to Navan. Passenger services operated until 1947 when services were interrupted due to fuel shortages. Some freight services operated through the 1950’s and the line was closed and formerly abandoned in 1963. Following closure the land and buildings were sold to adjoining landowners and to private individuals. The alignment to the M3 Interchange at Pace, which is the subject of this study is still largely intact although heavily overgrown. Previous Studies and Recommendations The former line through Dunboyne and Clonsilla has been the subject of a number of studies and reports over recent years. Meath County Council have included re- opening the line in recent county development plans. In March 2000 Iarnród Éireann engaged Ove Arup to undertake the Dublin Suburban Rail Strategic Review which examined the line and concluded that: “a direct rail line to Dublin should be included in the recommended strategy. This cannot be implemented without additional capacity in the city central area. Rail provision will need to be matched to the scale of development along the route, as well as in Navan and a phased approach is appropriate.” The DTO Platform for Change report September 2000, included the Clonsilla to Navan in its recommended strategy and proposed a two phased opening – Clonsilla to Dunboyne initially and then Dunboyne to Navan. Date: January 2005 Project No.C128 Page 6 of 33 Version 2 Clonsilla – M3 Interchange Railway Line Feasibility Study Final Report The Strategic Rail Review (Booz, Allen, Hamilton 2003) examined the feasibility for re-opening the entire route from Clonsilla to Navan and concluded that there was no economic case for re-opening the entire line to Navan. They did not consider the section between Clonsilla and Dunboyne as a discrete project. In October 2003 Meath County Council commissioned Farrell Grant Sparks to undertake a pre feasibility study of the Clonsilla to Navan line and they recommended that a detailed feasibility study should be undertaken for the section between Clonsilla and the M3 Interchange. Study remit Following consultation between Meath County Council, Fingal County Council, Dublin Transportation and Iarnród Éireann it was agreed that Iarnród Éireann would undertake a detailed feasibility study jointly funded by the participating bodies. The remit of the study was agreed as: 1. An assessment of the technical, engineering and operational aspects of the project. 2. Preparation of an outline scheme design and capital cost estimate 3. Projections of passenger demand, project patronage, revenue yield and operating costs. 4. Preparation of financial and economic cost benefit analysis taking due account of social and other external benefits. 5. An examination of funding options to finance the project e.g. development levies, PPP options etc. 6. Phasing options for delivery of the project within the context of budgetary constraints and to meet future land use and population expansion 7. Preparation of a business case for the project based on the foregoing.