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The Role of Pastoralist Mobility in Foot-And-Mouth Disease Transmission in the Far North Region of Cameroon

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The Role of Pastoralist Mobility in Foot-And-Mouth Disease Transmission in the Far North Region of Cameroon The Role of Pastoralist Mobility in Foot-and-Mouth Disease Transmission in The Far North Region of Cameroon DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Hyeyoung Kim Graduate Program in Geography The Ohio State University 2016 Dissertation Committee: Ningchuan Xiao, Advisor Rebecca Garabed Mark Moritz Daniel Z. Sui Copyrighted by Hyeyoung Kim 2016 Abstract Animal and human movements can impact the transmission of infectious diseases. Recent outbreaks of infectious diseases such as Ebola Virus Disease, Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, or foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) occur across borders and concurrently in the world. Because the movements of individuals and goods occur globally and frequently, an infectious disease outbreak in one place can be spread throughout the world. Therefore, analyzing and predicting movements is closely related to predicting and preventing the spread of an epidemic. Analyzing historical epidemic data and modeling the spread of an epidemic allow us to prepare for new epidemics in the near future and can also be the basis of a policy decision. Modeling animal and human movements and their impacts, however, presents a significant challenge to disease transmission models because these models often assume a fully mixing population where individuals have an equal chance to contact each other. In reality, movements result in populations that can be best represented as dynamic networks whose structure changes over time as individual movements result in changing distances between individuals within a population. This dissertation models the impact of the movements of mobile pastoralists on FMD transmission in a transhumance system in the Far North Region of Cameroon. I first analyze transhumance survey data to derive mobility rules that can be used to simulate the movements of the agents in the model. I develop an agent-based model coupled with an epidemic model. With the model, I ii simulate under the different environments and various experiment scenarios to evaluate the impacts of mobile pastoralists’ regular movements and changes in the movement patterns on hypothetical FMD epidemics. My simulation results are validated with empirical data collected by surveying herders over the last four years (2010-2014). iii Acknowledgments I would like to acknowledge and express my sincerest gratitude to my committee members, colleagues, family, and friends. Without their support and encouragement, I would never have been able to endure the difficulties of the last five years. First and foremost, I would like to express my deepest appreciation to my advisor, Dr. Ningchuan Xiao. His wise counsel and warm encouragement have made me believe in myself and let me move forward. I would also like to thank my dissertation committee, Dr. Rebecca Garabed, Dr. Mark Moritz, and Dr. Daniel Sui, for their thoughtful comments, suggestions, and support toward the completion of my dissertation research. In addition, I am grateful for productive discussions and helpful comments from the members of the Disease Ecology and Computer Modeling Laboratory (DECML) at Ohio State. Especially, I would like to give a special thank you to Dr. Laura W. Pomeroy and Dr. Karla Moreno Torres. Finally, I would like to acknowledge with gratitude the support and love of my family – my parents, sister, brother-in-law, and niece. iv Vita 2006................................................................B.Eng. Geoinformatics, University of Seoul, South Korea 2008................................................................M.Eng. Geoinformatics, University of Seoul, South Korea 2011................................................................Graduate Associate, Department of Geoinformatics, University of Seoul, South Korea 2011 to present ..............................................Graduate Associate, Department of Geography, The Ohio State University, USA v Publications Kim, H., Xiao, N., Moritz, M., Garabed, R., & Pomeroy, L. W. (2016). Simulating the Transmission of Foot-And- Mouth Disease Among Mobile Herds in the Far. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, 19(2). Pomeroy, L. W., Bj, O. N., Kim, H., Jumbo, S. D., Abdoulkadiri, S., & Garabed, R. (2015). Serotype-Specific Transmission and Waning Immunity of Endemic Foot- and-Mouth Disease Virus in Cameroon. PLoS ONE, 10(9), 1–16. Jun, C., & Kim, H. (2011). A 3D Indoor Pedestrian Simulator Using an Enhanced Floor Field Model. In J. Filipe, A. Fred, & B. Sharp (Eds.), Agents and Artificial Intelligence. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 2010. 133-146. Jun, C., & Kim, H. (2009). An Indoor Crowd Simulation Using a 2D-3D Hybrid Data Model. In O. Gervasi, D. Taniar, B. Murgante, A. Laganà, Y. Mun, & M. L. Gavrilova (Eds.), Computational Science and Its Applications - ICCSA 2009. Springer Berlin Heidelberg, 397-412. Kim, G., H. Kim and C. Jun, 2008. Developing a 3D indoor evacuation simulator using a spatial DBMS, Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information System, 16(4): 41-48. (in Korean) Youn, G., H. Kim and C. Jun, 2008. The Optimization of Vector Data for Mobile GIS, Journal of GIS Association of Korea, 16(2): 207-218. (in Korean) Kim, H., G. Jun and J.H. Kwon, 2007. Syntax-based Accessibility for 3D Indoor Spaces, Journal of Korean Society for Geospatial Information System, 15(3): 11-18. (in Korean) Fields of Study Major Field: Geography vi Table of Contents Abstract ............................................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgments.............................................................................................................. iv Vita ...................................................................................................................................... v List of Tables ..................................................................................................................... xi List of Figures ................................................................................................................... xii Chapter 1: Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Problem context .................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Research Objectives ............................................................................................. 3 1.3 Dissertation Overview .......................................................................................... 3 Chapter 2: Literature Review ............................................................................................. 5 2.1 Human/Animal Mobility Pattern Analysis ........................................................... 5 2.2 Modeling Human Behavior ................................................................................ 12 2.3 Modeling Epidemic Process ............................................................................... 16 2.4 Agent-based Modeling ....................................................................................... 21 vii 2.5 Foot-and-Mouth Disease .................................................................................... 23 Chapter 3: Simulating the Transmission of Foot-and-mouth Disease among Mobile Herds in the Far North Region, Cameroon ....................................................................... 27 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 27 3.2 Data and Methods ............................................................................................... 31 3.2.1 Spatial and Temporal Movements of Pastoralists ............................................ 31 3.2.2 Agent-Based Disease Model ............................................................................ 39 3.3 Experiments ........................................................................................................ 44 3.4 Results ................................................................................................................ 48 3.4.1 Sensitivity to parameters .................................................................................. 48 3.4.2 Model compared to survey data ........................................................................ 53 3.5 Discussion and Conclusions ............................................................................... 58 Chapter 4: Describing and Explaining Patterns in Transhumance Orbits: Pastoral Mobility in the Far North Region of Cameroon ............................................................... 60 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................ 60 4.2 Study Area and Data .......................................................................................... 62 4.3 Methods .............................................................................................................. 64 4.4 Results ................................................................................................................ 68 4.4.1 Transhumance orbits ......................................................................................... 68 viii 4.4.2 Migratory drift .................................................................................................. 73
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