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A Falling Knife RESEARCHFebruaryREPORT 1, 2020 FebruaryEncana 3, 2020 Revisited Stock Rating Sell Price Target $1.62 Bear Price Bull Case Target Case $0.00 $1.62 $18.18 Ticker OVV Ovintiv Inc. (f.k.a. Encana) Market Cap ($M) $5,375.5 A Falling Knife EV/EBITDA 2020E 4.6x Net Debt/EBITDA 2020E 2.3x In January 2018, the E&U team chose to make a public equity investment in Encana (TSX:ECA) at an average cost per share of 52 Week Performance $13.89. Since, the company’s share price has depreciated by 57% as investors have viewed management’s acquisition of Newfield 145 Exploration and decision to relocate/rebrand as Ovintiv (TSX:OVV) counterproductive. 110 82.3 After reassessing, the E&U team believes investors have not 75 overreacted and that Ovintiv is worth significantly less now than just one year ago. Additionally, the team believes its original thesis were 43.8 far outside its circle of competence and disappointingly focused on 40 macroeconomic projections rather than business quality and intrinsic value. Today, using a DCF/NAV valuation model and futures-implied energy prices, E&U concludes that Ovintiv is worth a fraction of its TSX:OVV $5.4B market capitalization. The business is considerably TSX Capped Energy Index overindebted and likely to face illiquidity troubles if energy prices continue to decline. As such, the E&U team will sell the entirety of its 1,219 shares. Energy & Utilities Mircea Barcan [email protected] Garrett Johnston [email protected] Eliano Rexho [email protected] The information in this document is for EDUCATIONAL and NON-COMMERCIAL use only and is not intended to Jamie Bennett constitute specific legal, accounting, financial or tax advice for any individual. In no event will QUIC, its members or directors, or Queen’s University be liable to you or anyone else for any loss or damages whatsoever (including [email protected] direct, indirect, special, incidental, consequential, exemplary or punitive damages) resulting from the use of this document, or reliance on the information or content found within this document. The information may not be reproduced or republished in any part without the prior written consent of QUIC and Queen’s University. QUIC is not in the business of advising or holding themselves out as being in the business of advising. Many factors may affect the applicability of any statement or comment that appear in our documents to an individual's particular circumstances. © Queen’s University 2020 February 1, 2020 Encana Revisited Table of Contents Company Overview 3 Investment Thesis Revisited 4 Newfield Acquisition Explained 7 Valuation 8 2 February 1, 2020 Encana Revisited Company Overview Company History and natural gas production is split between the US and Canada. Current major asset bases include the Ovintiv is one of North America’s oldest oil and natural Montney, Andarko, and the Permian where Ovintiv gas producers. Its history goes back to the late 1800s produces liquids and natural gas: when workers for the Canadian Pacific Railway (CPR) that were drilling a water well discovered natural Montney: The Montney is located in western Canada gas. From then, CPR drilled the first producing gas well and is one of the largest unconventional oil and gas in Alberta which continued in use for 50 years. Over deposits in Canada and North America. Ovintiv is the next century, CPR began to expand rapidly. In currently focused on drilling in the condensate-rich 1958, CPR created Canadian Pacific Oil and Gas to regions of the Montney and has a ~25% liquids share. manage its properties, which later merged with Central-Del Rio Oils in 1971 to form Pan Canadian Andarko: The Anadarko Basin is located in west-central Petroleum Limited. Oklahoma and is a liquids-rich resource play. Ovintiv currently has ~360,000 net acres of production area, In 2003 Pan Canadian Petroleum Limited merged with with the majority in the black oil windows of SCOOP Alberta Energy Co., a former Alberta Crown and STACK. Corporation and Canada’s largest natural gas producer at the time. The merger was valued at $23B and The Permian: The Permian Basin is one of the largest created EnCana Corp. known oil deposits in the U.S. with multiple oil- saturated rock benches. Ovintiv’s acreage in the In 2009, EnCana, which at the time was the largest oil Permian is located in the oil-rich Midland Basin, Texas. and gas producer in Canada, was split into Encana and Cenovus, two separate entities with specific interests in natural gas and crude oil, respectively. Today, Cenovus EXHIBIT I trades on the NYSE and TSX, and has total enterprise value of $22.6B. Production Mix as of Q3 2019 In January of 2020, Encana undertook a corporate rebranding, moving its corporate headquarters to Denver, Colorado and renaming itself as Ovintiv Inc. Although the E&U team does not strictly believe the 29% move was harmful to the corporation, the reasoning for doing so, considering CEO Doug Suttles is a Denver 46% native and formerly lived in the city, has made many institutional investors question his decision. Overview Today, Ovintiv is a leading North American energy 25% producer focused on developing its multi-basin portfolio of oil, NGL, and natural gas producing plays. Currently the company has a production split of 29% oil, 25% NGLs, and 46% natural gas. Within this Oil NGLs Natural Gas portfolio, almost all oil is drilled in the US while NGL Source(s): Company Filings 3 February 1, 2020 Encana Revisited Investment Thesis Revisited Brief II: The Move Away from Natural Gas On January 15th of 2018, the E&U team presented its The E&U team explained that the incremental natural investment memo on Ovintiv, which was known at the gas supply from the United States paired with time as Encana. The team concluded that “Encana has infrastructure bottlenecks and political uncertainty in successfully repositioned itself by transitioning to a Canada, has reduced the merits of investing in highly disciplined capital allocation approach, while Canadian natural gas. As such, Encana’s shift from a focusing on developing top tier assets and disciplined natural gas weighted company to a more crude oil debt management.” focused ‘liquids’ company will create value for shareholders. Further, diversification will “limit The thesis that informed this conclusion are as follows: downside of an adverse Canadian natural gas market.” I: Underappreciated Resource Play: III: Neglected San Juan Opportunity The E&U team argued that ECA’s exposure to the In early 2018, Encana began the production of assets it Permian basin compares favorably to its Canadian owned near San Juan, New Mexico. While these assets large cap peers who operate in the oil sands. Greater were primarily natural gas, preliminary research operational efficiency and higher netbacks will drive discovered crude oil of similar quality to that produced ECA’s operational statistics and attract investment in the Permian basin region. An NPV of the potential from Canadian energy investors looking to circumvent incremental crude oil determined Encana’s stake was the unfavorable macro environment in Canada. worth approximately one billion US dollars. As such, Additionally, the team contented that U.S. energy the E&U team concluded that investors were investors unfamiliar with the Montney region will find overlooking the potential upside of ECA’s San Juan the region’s comparatively high risk-adjusted returns assets. and WTI-based pricing attractive. EXHIBIT II Historical and Forward Capex Distribution $3,000 $2,000 $1,000 $0 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Canadian Assets US Assets Other Source(s): Company Filings, QUIC Projections 4 February 1, 2020 Encana Revisited Investment Thesis Revisited EXHIBIT III E&U’s Circle of Competence What we might know What we know Thesis II Thesis III Predicting Energy Prices Capital Allocation Asset Quality Capital Structure Predicting Geopolitics Macroeconomics Management Trends in E&U Risk Predicting Other Investors’ Perceptions of Value Thesis I What we know we don’t know Circle of Competence the worthiness of an investment using these determinants would be uninformed speculation. Since its inception, QUIC’s E&U fund has prided itself on investing using analysis that can be completed Thus, E&U continues to focus its research on within the team’s circle of competence. investment opportunities where a businesses’ capital allocation strategy, capital structure, management, or For E&U, the circle of competence can be defined as 1) relative risk are at question. Recent examples include something that the team fully understands and has the the team’s buy pitch on the overindebted Crescent potential to exhibit expertise in, and 2) something that Point Energy and sell pitch on Parex Resources (given can be measured and used to determine value or risk the unreasonable anticipated returns on its invested in future periods. Given the team’s background in capital). corporate finance and valuation, E&U believes its core competencies are measuring the quality of capital Aside allocation and management, and the relative risks associated with capital structure and operations. It is important to note that this approach to investing, if successfully executed, will yield risk-adjusted returns Investors with backgrounds or expertise in mining and in excess of a benchmark (alpha), but not necessarily E&U operations have an inherit analytical advantage in positive returns; this is because the team’s circle of measuring asset quality, while economists are more competence is only a single determinant of value. As likely to excel in predicting long-term changes in such, E&U evaluates its performance with reference to supply, demand, and pricing. To attempt to evaluate the broader performance of equities in its industry.
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