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Potencialidades E Limites Do Concerto Sino-Russo Na Ásia Central

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Potencialidades E Limites Do Concerto Sino-Russo Na Ásia Central INSTITUTO DE RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM RELAÇÕES INTERNACIONAIS ESPÍRITO DE XANGAI: POTENCIALIDADES E LIMITES DO CONCERTO SINO-RUSSO NA ÁSIA CENTRAL João Victor Scherrer Bumbieris Brasília 2010 ESPÍRITO DE XANGAI: POTENCIALIDADES E LIMITES DO CONCERTO SINO-RUSSO NA ÁSIA CENTRAL João Victor Scherrer Bumbieris Dissertação apresentada ao Programa de Pós- Graduação em Relações Internacionais do Instituto de Relações Internacionais da Universidade de Brasília como requisito parcial para a obtenção do título de Mestre em Relações Internacionais. Orientadora: Prof.ª Dr.ª Norma Breda dos Santos Brasília 2010 Ficha catalográfica elaborada pela Biblioteca Central da Universidade de Brasília. Acervo 983151. Bumbieris, João Victor Scherrer. B941e Esp írito de Xangai : po t enc i a l i dades e l imi t es do concerto sino-russo na Ásia Central / João Victor Scherrer Bumbieris. -- 2010. 233 f. : il. ; 30 cm. Dissertação (me s t r a d o ) - Un i vers i dade de Bras í l i a , Instituto de Relações I n t ernac i ona i s , 2010 . Inclui bibliograf ia. Orientação : Norma Breda dos San t os . 1. Segurança internacional . 2. Relações i n t ernac i ona i s - China - Rússia. 3. Organ i zações i n t ernac i ona i s . I. Santos, Norma Breda dos. II. Título. CDU 327(47 : 510) Banca Examinadora ____________________________ NORMA BREDA DOS SANTOS (ORIENTADORA) Instituto de Relações Internacionais Universidade de Brasília _______________________________ MARCO CEPIK (MEMBRO) Departamento de Ciência Política Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul _______________________________________ ALCIDES COSTA VAZ (MEMBRO) Instituto de Relações Internacionais Universidade de Brasília Agradeço aos meus pais, pelo incentivo e patrocínio; à minha orientadora, Prof.ª Dr.ª Norma Breda dos Santos, pela orientação paciente; ao Instituto de Relações Internacionais e seu quadro, pelo ambiente de aprendizado; e a Deus, por tudo. Resumo O trabalho é um estudo de caso que tem por objetivo geral analisar a extensão e o significado do concerto sino-russo de 1989 a 2010 para a estrutura de segurança regional e internacional, priorizando os vínculos produzidos no quadro do Grupo Xangai-5 (1996- 2001) e da Organização de Cooperação de Xangai (criada em 2001), ou seja, valorizando o ambiente estratégico que engloba a Federação Russa, a República Popular da China (RPC) e países da Ásia Central (Cazaquistão, Turcomenistão, Uzbequistão, Quirguistão e Tadjiquistão). Analiticamente, separa-se o padrão de alinhamento entre Rússia e China do padrão de alinhamento destes estados com os países da Ásia Central, notando em que medida se aproximam ou divergem. O objetivo específico é testar a hipótese de que a parceria sino-russa e a Organização de Cooperação de Xangai são motivadas por uma política de balanceamento externo de tipo moderado (soft) contra ameaças percebidas, avaliando-se o processo histórico de sua formação (process tracing) e buscando-se identificar a presença de indicadores dessa forma de comportamento internacional no período, conforme o trabalho de Robert Pape: negação de acesso a território, diplomacia de obstaculização, formação de blocos econômicos exclusivos e formação de alianças de tipo menos vinculativo ou formal, como ententes. Como objetivo secundário, identificam-se, em linhas gerais, as grandes estratégias da RPC e da Federação Russa, descrevendo a percepção de ameaças externas e internas das lideranças político-militares, seus objetivos estratégicos e os meios para obtê-los, usando complementarmente um recorte realista clássico e culturalista. Conclui-se que o concerto sino-russo na Ásia Central corresponde à intercessão entre os elementos de balanceamento soft das grandes estratégias da Rússia e da China, tendo por finalidade: a) reforçar o balancemento interno de cada estado, sobretudo o chinês, com ênfase na construção de capacidades assimétricas; b) diminuir o custo de manutenção de fronteiras por meio da resolução de pendências de limites, promoção de cooperação técnica e assistência a estados na Ásia Central, mediante treinamento de guardas de fronteira e serviços especializados no combate a movimentos extremistas e separatistas, tráfico de drogas e armas, tráfico humano; c) impedir, por meios institucionais e extra- institucionais, o que russos e chineses concebem como um cercamento dos EUA e aliados a seus entornos estratégicos; d) garantir a estabilidade dos regimes russo, chinês e dos estados centro-asiáticos por meio da formação de uma rede de instituições e práticas alternativas ou impérvias a valores poliárquicos e legitimar um perfil de combate a ameaças domésticas com fungibilidade na tipificação de crimes, aproximando entidades extremistas de grupos de oposição ou massas descontentes; e) estabelecer na moldura da OCX um fórum lasso para o diálogo e resolução de dissídios os mais diversos, seja em relação a disputas sobre ativos energéticos, seja em relação a fluxos migratórios e ameaças transnacionais. Embora institucionalmente rarefeita, a quantidade de encontros entre oficiais dos dois países na moldura da organização cresceu de modo significativo ao longo do período (sobretudo nas áreas militar, de inteligência e policial), no mínimo impedindo que distúrbios localizados ameaçassem o equilíbrio geral da cooperação bilateral. Palavras-chave: Segurança internacional, Federação Russa, Política externa russa, República Popular da China, Política externa chinesa, Ásia Central, Organizações Internacionais, Organização de Cooperação de Xangai, Grupo Xangai-5, Balança de poder, Soft balancing, Grande estratégia, Estados Unidos, Realismo, Multipolarismo, Unipolarismo, Hegemonia, Terrorismo. Abstract The case study analyzes the extension and significance of the Sino-Russian cooperation between 1989 and 2010 to the regional and international security structure, with an emphasis on relations maintained in the Shanghai-5 group (1996-2001) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization–SCO (created in 2001), i.e., the strategic space concerning the Russian Federation, People’s Republic of China (PRC) and Central Asian countries (Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan). Analytically, the alignment pattern between Russia and China and the one sustained between the Central Asian countries and the two powers is taken apart so as to evaluate convergence or divergence in methods and political purpose between the bilateral and multilateral levels. Specifically, the study attempts to test, through process-tracing, the hypothesis that the formation and development of the Sino-Russian partnership and the SCO are motivated by a policy of external soft balancing against perceived threats, using the indicators suggested by Robert Pape: territorial denial, entangling diplomacy, formation of exclusive economic blocs, signaling of resolve to participate in a balancing coalition, usually of a less formal kind, like ententes. As a secondary an instrumental objective, the essay attempts to identify the general traits of Russian and Chinese grand strategies, i.e. the causal links between national strategic objectives, means to obtain them and threats opposed to them as perceived by their politico-military elites, employing a classical realist and culturalist approach. The conclusions suggest that the Sino-Russian cooperation in Central Asia corresponds to the intersection of the soft balancing elements of Russian and Chinese grand strategies, having the purpose of: a) reinforcing processes of internal hard balancing, especially for China, with an emphasis on building asymmetric capabilities; b) diminishing the costs of border maintenance and surveillance through confidence building mechanisms, resolution of disputes, technical assistance to and cooperation with Central Asian countries in combating threats from extremists and terrorist movements, drug traffic, arms smuggling, etc.; c) averting, by institutional or extra-institutional means, what Russian and Chinese leaders deem as acts of encirclement by the United States and its allies on the strategic perimeter of these two states; d) guaranteeing the stability of Russian, Chinese and Central Asian regimes by promoting practices and institutions alternative or impervious to poliarchical values and by legitimizing the securitization of domestic and transnational threats, like extremism, separatism and terrorism, in a discretionary legal definition; e) establishing in the SCO framework a loose forum for dialogue and conflict resolution regarding numerous issues, such as disputes of interests about energy resources, migration processes and transnational crimes. In spite of its institutional rarefaction, the frequency of meetings between officials of member countries has increased significantly (especially in the military, intelligence and police force fields), at least preventing focal disturbances from menacing the general equilibrium of the Sino-Russian bilateral cooperation. Keywords: International Security, Russian Federation, Russian Foreign Policy, People’s Republic of China, Chinese Foreign Policy, Central Asia, International Organizations, Shanghai Cooperation Organization, Shanghai-5, Balance of Power, Soft Balancing, Grand Strategy, United States, Realism, Multipolarism, Unipolarism, Hegemony, Terrorism. Lista de figuras Figura 01 – Parceria estratégica sino-russa ............................................................................................... 32 Figura 02 – China – PIB: valor, valor per capita, taxa de crescimento ....................................................
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