The Connecticut Statistical Analysis Center May 2021
OPM - Criminal Justice Policy & Planning Division
Monthly Indicators Report
Highlights Prison Population Forecast • Connecticut’s correction population the remained stable over the last month, At three months following its release, the Prison Population Forecast with a difference of only 18 people continues to show prognostic merit, just shy of the actual count by two between people between April 1, people (see Table 1). If the forecast’s accurate forecasting continues, we 2021 (8,966) and May 1, 2021 anticipate a gradual decrease in the population until autumn, when a minor (8,948). Taking a longer view, uptick is predicted. Even so, the trajectory forecast is relatively flat however, this is 19% lower than the compared to typical seasonal variations (see Chart 1). population in May 2020. As cautioned in the prior report, TABLE 1 – Prison Population Forecast • The DOC community supervision declaring a return to normalcy is Avg. Daily OPM 2021 Inmate count fell below four thousand ill-advised until trends stretching Count Forecast difference individuals (3,997) this month, the over several months, or longer, JAN '21 9,106 - - lowest level since October 2015. A is identified. The criminal justice FEB 9,044 9,044 - time when the correction population system likely will see several MAR 9,048 9,020 -28 housed nearly twice the current false starts before truly reverting APR 8,931 8,999 68 population (16,099 people). The to pre-pandemic volumes and MAY 8,955 8,957 2 Transitional Supervision and DUI operations. March 2021—which JUN 8,914 - home confinement experienced the had momentary spikes in lock-up JUL 8,890 - largest reduction, while the parole arraignments, DOC admissions, AUG 8,869 - population, whose population tends discretionary releases, end-of SEP 8,827 - to have longer supervision periods, sentence discharges, and OCT 8,890 - has remained stable through the probation case starts—illustrates NOV 8,908 - pandemic. this transitory phenomenon. DEC 8,924 - Despite March’s increases in JAN '22 8,864 - these metrics, the changes were FEB 8,986 - • The adult probation population Avg. Daily Count (ADC) for 1st week of month dipped below 30,000 people (see not sustained: each either Chart 2). The May 1, 2021 decreased or stabilized the population was 29,927 people, 20% following month. lower than one year ago (37,306) and lower than any time on record. As such, despite widespread availability of vaccinations and increased Fewer people starting new probation activity across the state, additional months of data are needed to make any terms over the course of the last comprehensive statements about returns to normalcy. year likely contributed to the Chart 1 – Actual prison population against the OPM forecasts reduction. January 1, 2020 through February 1, 2022 o First, fewer people received probation placements at the time of sentencing, especially in the early months of the pandemic. New probation starts fell by more than two-thirds in the summer of 2020.
o Second, the number of people starting probation terms following incarceration (i.e. a “split sentence”) reached an all-time low, of 180, in April 2021. This is almost half the number of people one year ago.
May 2021 Monthly Indicators Report https://portal.ct.gov/OPM/CJ-About/Homepage/CJPPD Page 1 of 4
Chart 2 - Criminal justice, monthly counts and flows
May 1, 2021 Monthly Criminal Arrests 8,147 (8,255)
Prison admissions 933 (1,044) THE COURTS Arraignments 1,692 (1,932) 16 (23) 103 (110) 67 (80) 747 (831)
Federal /Other* No return from court 98 (102) Sentenced Pre-trial Probation 141 (144) Prisoners* Population* Violations Special Parolees* 5,491 (5,551) 3,004 (2,963) Release to Bond 355 (350) 324 (404) 946 (1,004) Prison Population*: 8,948 (8,966) DOC FACILITIES Pre-trial releases Releases & discharges 552 (668) 65 (81) Adult Discretionary Releases from Prison 219 (236) Probation 116 (86) 29,927 (30,142) 8 (13) 65 (61) 12 (22) 23 (25) 0 (0) 29 (21) 12 (17) 70 (77) Special Parole* 180 (210) 1813 End of Nursing DUI Home Trans. Parole/& ReF.* Trans. HWH* TS* (1814) Sentence home Confine.* parole* Parcom* Place* (EOS) 1 29 108 961 27 77 780 201 268 (351) (0) (25) (171) (897) (26) (78) (798) (224)
50 (54) 0 (0) 2 (0) 2 (4) 12 (20) 3 (0) 1 (1) 27 (25) 6 (6) SPLIT SENTENCE? YES Total remands to prison: 103 (110) NO 88 (141) 1,143 (1,542) 0 (0) 3 (6) 0 (0) 32 (63) 1 (2) 14 (26) 19 (24) 46 (54) 37 (90) Discharges (EOS) from Community Supervision 152 (265) Completion of Court Imposed Offenders Supervised in the Community by CT DOC*: 3,997 (4,033) Sanction
Chart 2 contains monthly operations data for April 2021 and daily counts reported on May 1, 2021. Asterisks (*) indicate the daily count on May 1st. Figures for last month are enclosed by parentheses. Sources: Arrests – CRMVS, via CJIS, Court and probation data - CSSD, all other data - CT DOC.
Chart 2a – Criminal dispositions - 2019 versus 2020 15,000 2019 2020
COVID-19
11,967
6,959
11,437
11,200
6,347
6,316
11,027
11,006
10,922
5,879
10,631
10,608
5,527
5,436 5,416
10,000 10,004
9,736
9,429
9,240
9,127 8,836
5,000 1,616
983 225
0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC Over the past year, this space has highlighted the Reaching disposition is a critical step in the life of a criminal disruption endured and the adaptations made by the case. Cases originate, naturally, with an arrest and, with criminal justice system. One would be hard-pressed to rare exceptions, automatically initiate a court case, which find a more dramatic example than the volume of cases means that without a disposition, cases languish. Without disposed in Connecticut’s criminal courts. The chart swift action to creatively move cases forward, a massive above, depicts the number of monthly case dispositions bottleneck would have developed. in 2019 and 2020. In the first two months of 2020, dispositions were down 5% from 2019, a gradual The chart above is part of a relatively new deliverable OPM decrease. Emergency orders were issued at the exact is tasked with: an analysis of case-level decision-making in midpoint of March 2020, causing dispositions to halve. the criminal courts. Work is well underway for our second April’s numbers dropped 99% compared to the year prior. annual presentation to the Criminal Justice Commission, Adaptations ensued: Prosecutors and defense counsel scheduled for July 2021. We plan to delve much deeper amended procedures to dispose of cases collaboratively. into the cases disposed in 2020, examining the similarities Cases were heard remotely. By July dispositions and differences exhibited as cases were processed in reached nearly 60% of the prior year’s level. Through Connecticut’s courts. innovation, collaboration and hard work, dispositions reached 70% of 2019’s levels by year’s end.
May 2021 Monthly Indicators Report https://portal.ct.gov/OPM/CJ-About/Homepage/CJPPD Page 2 of 4 Table 2 - First-of-month totals Board of Pardons and Paroles 2021 2021 2021 2020 % Change Mar. 1 Apr. 1 May 1 May 1 Monthly Annual Table 4 - Parole hearings, new cases DOC Facilities Granted: Granted: Federal/Other 118 102 98 111 -3.9% -11.7% Parole Paroles Prior Year Two Years Sentenced 5,668 5,551 5,491 7,961 -1.1% -31.0% Hearings granted Grant rate Prior Special Parole 344 350 355 319 1.4% 11.3% FEB 89 51 57% 53 83 Pre-trial 2,920 2,963 3,004 2,583 1.4% 16.3% Total 9,050 8,966 8,948 10,974 -0.2% -18.5% MAR 91 58 64% 70 71 DOC Community APR 103 74 72% 77 67 Transfer Parole 174 171 108 119 -36.8% -9.2% Table 4a - Other BOPP actions Parole/ Parcom Total 918 897 961 937 7.1% 2.6% Reparole Reparole Closed Special Transfer Parole 739 717 779 778 8.6% 0.1% from from interest parole parole Parcom @ CT 179 180 182 159 1.1% 14.5% revocation rescission cases cases cases Furlough 25 26 27 114 3.8% -76.3% Trans Placement 82 78 77 93 -1.3% -17.2% FEB 20 0 11 11 22 DUI/Home confine. 20 25 29 141 16.0% -79.4% MAR 20 0 27 10 25 Halfway House Total 801 798 780 732 -2.3% 6.6% APR 2021 10 2 14 10 27 Comm Release 381 372 375 330 0.8% 13.6% APR 2020 48 1 18 17 100 TS 8 11 5 13 -54.5% -61.5% Parole 126 125 128 105 2.4% 21.9% The pre-trial population Transfer Parole 22 20 19 9 -5.0% 111.1% Special Parole 264 270 253 275 -6.3% -8.0% Table 5 - Bond ranges for pre-trial detainees TS 258 224 201 550 -10.3% -63.5% Mar. 1, Apr. 1, May 1, May 1, Nursing home 0 0 1 5 - -80.0% Bond amount 2021 2021 2021 2020 Special Parole 1,877 1,814 1,813 2,134 -0.1% -15.0% Less than $20K 397 383 377 262 Total 4,155 4,033 3,997 4,825 -0.9% -17.2% $20K to < $50K 378 388 366 343 Table 2a - Monthly admissions, releases & discharges $50K to <$100K 476 474 504 482 2021 2021 2021 2020 % Change $100K or higher 1,887 1,927 1,998 1,648 FEB MAR APR APR Monthly Annual Persons w/bonds 3,138 3,172 3,245 2,740 Admissions Federal/Other 16 23 16 14 -30.4% 14.3% Over $1M 317 329 336 235 Remands 93 110 103 41 -6.4% 151.2% Table 5a - Pre-trial, weeks since admission DUI 3 0 2 0 - - Weeks since last Mar. 1, Apr. 1, May 1, May 1, Transfer Parole 1 4 2 0 -50.0% - DOC admit 2021 2021 2021 2020 Parole 15 20 12 19 -40.0% -36.8% < 1 week 264 225 248 115 Trans Plac/Furlough 4 1 4 1 - - 1 to < 3 weeks 194 198 192 76 HWH 12 25 27 9 8.0% 200.0% TS 8 6 6 5 0.0% 20.0% 3 to < 10 weeks 455 519 569 460 Special Parole 50 54 50 16 -7.4% 212.5% 10 to < 30 weeks 849 821 802 970 New Sentence 55 80 67 0 -16.3% - 30 wks or more 1,379 1,413 1,439 1,119 VOP 17 21 15 0 - - Pre-trial prisoners 3,141 3,176 3,250 2,740 Pre-trial 647 831 747 300 -10.1% 149.0% Total 811 1,044 933 355 -10.6% 162.8% Table 5b - Pre-trial admits, new offenders Releases and discharges APR Transfer Parole 15 21 29 54 38.1% -46.3% FEB 2020 MAR 2021 APR 2021 2020 Parole 54 61 65 64 6.6% 1.6% Arraignments 1,347 1,932 1,692 671 Furlough 13 17 12 119 -29.4% -89.9% Pre-trial Admits 647 831 747 300 Trans. Placement 19 22 12 53 -45.5% -77.4% New to DOC 154 203 172 72 Home Confinement DUI 3 13 8 46 -38.5% -82.6% HWH 63 77 70 39 -9.1% 79.5% % New 24% 24% 23% 24% TS 33 25 23 170 -8.0% -86.5% Special Parole 83 81 65 93 -19.8% -30.1% Court Support Services Division Nursing home 0 0 0 0 - - End of Sentence 288 351 268 465 -23.6% -42.4% Table 6 - The Jail Reinterview Program Total 571 668 552 1,103 -17.4% -50.0% Pretrial Offender Offenders Released Pre-trial Releases* admissions interviews released last year From Court 98 144 141 38 -2.1% 271.1% FEB 647 524 138 268 Release to Bond 247 404 324 294 -19.8% 10.2% * Totals reflect events, not individual offenders MAR 831 688 225 238 APR 747 648 166 247 DOC - Community Release Unit (CRU) Table 3 - Case reviews and release metrics Cases Approval Table 6a - Pre-trial bail and probation caseloads Reviewed Approved Denied Continued Rate FEB 212 93 35 27 44% Pretrial Bail Client Supv. Split Sentence Pretrial bail MAR 351 161 65 45 46% Case Starts Starts Starts cases APR 21 230 105 32 30 46% FEB 2,050* 676 183 12,665* APR 20 522 307 68 52 59% MAR 2,050* 1,004 210 12,665* APR 2,050* 946 180 12,665* Note: Figures published here are based on the operational APR '20 2,050* 1,927 341 12,665* data available at the time of publication. Data in subsequent * CSSD estimates issues may not agree.
May 2021 Monthly Indicators Report https://portal.ct.gov/OPM/CJ-About/Homepage/CJPPD Page 3 of 4
Chart 3 – Prison population Chart 6 – Monthly DOC Admissions First week of the month, avg. daily count (ADC) April 2020 through April 2021
1,600 Federal/ Other Average Daily Count (ADC): 8,955 Remands 9,000 ADC last month: 8,931 1,400 New Sentence 1,200 Pretrial
831
757
747
678
670
658
1,000 647
637
8,963 610 8,962 585 8,957
490 800 475 8,951 8,951 8,952 8,950 8,946 600 300 400 200 0
APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 21 JAN FEB MAR APR 8,900 Saturday, Sunday, May Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday, May May 1 2 May 3 May 4 May 5 May 6 7
Chart 4 – Prison population, first-of-month Chart 7– Remands from community release 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021 April 2021
14,000 13,656 70 Absconder/Escapee 60 13,000 Criminal Offense 13,220 50 Technical Violation 11,854 12,000 9 40
2018 2019 11,000 30 19
2020 2021 20 13 10,000 3 10 22 8,948 5 2 11 9,000 6 0 Parole TS Halfway Special 8,000 House Parole JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Chart 5 – Statewide Arrests Chart 8 – DOC community supervision 2020 and 2021 Apr. 1, 2020 through May. 1, 2021
10,141 2,409 12,000 9,887 2021 2020 2,500
2,066 7,996
10,000 7,855
7,671 7,617
7,473 2,000
7,341
6,984 6,946 6,777 Parole TS Special Parole 8,000 1,500
4,418 1,042 1,089 6,000
1,000
8,255 8,255 7,335 7,335 4,000 6,752 563 500 206
2,000 8,147 0
APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN 21 FEB MAR APR MAY 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Note: Data for all charts, except for Chart 5, was supplied by CT DOC. Data for Chart 5 are for new case starts in the state Criminal Motor Vehicle System (CRMVS). Chart 8 includes offenders in halfway houses.
May 2021 Monthly Indicators Report https://portal.ct.gov/OPM/CJ-About/Homepage/CJPPD Page 4 of 4