Monthly Indicators Report
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The Connecticut Statistical Analysis Center May 2021 OPM - Criminal Justice Policy & Planning Division Monthly Indicators Report Highlights Prison Population Forecast • Connecticut’s correction population the remained stable over the last month, At three months following its release, the Prison Population Forecast with a difference of only 18 people continues to show prognostic merit, just shy of the actual count by two between people between April 1, people (see Table 1). If the forecast’s accurate forecasting continues, we 2021 (8,966) and May 1, 2021 anticipate a gradual decrease in the population until autumn, when a minor (8,948). Taking a longer view, uptick is predicted. Even so, the trajectory forecast is relatively flat however, this is 19% lower than the compared to typical seasonal variations (see Chart 1). population in May 2020. As cautioned in the prior report, TABLE 1 – Prison Population Forecast • The DOC community supervision declaring a return to normalcy is Avg. Daily OPM 2021 Inmate count fell below four thousand ill-advised until trends stretching Count Forecast difference individuals (3,997) this month, the over several months, or longer, JAN '21 9,106 - - lowest level since October 2015. A is identified. The criminal justice FEB 9,044 9,044 - time when the correction population system likely will see several MAR 9,048 9,020 -28 housed nearly twice the current false starts before truly reverting APR 8,931 8,999 68 population (16,099 people). The to pre-pandemic volumes and MAY 8,955 8,957 2 Transitional Supervision and DUI operations. March 2021—which JUN 8,914 - home confinement experienced the had momentary spikes in lock-up JUL 8,890 - largest reduction, while the parole arraignments, DOC admissions, AUG 8,869 - population, whose population tends discretionary releases, end-of SEP 8,827 - to have longer supervision periods, sentence discharges, and OCT 8,890 - has remained stable through the probation case starts—illustrates NOV 8,908 - pandemic. this transitory phenomenon. DEC 8,924 - Despite March’s increases in JAN '22 8,864 - these metrics, the changes were FEB 8,986 - • The adult probation population Avg. Daily Count (ADC) for 1st week of month dipped below 30,000 people (see not sustained: each either Chart 2). The May 1, 2021 decreased or stabilized the population was 29,927 people, 20% following month. lower than one year ago (37,306) and lower than any time on record. As such, despite widespread availability of vaccinations and increased Fewer people starting new probation activity across the state, additional months of data are needed to make any terms over the course of the last comprehensive statements about returns to normalcy. year likely contributed to the Chart 1 – Actual prison population against the OPM forecasts reduction. January 1, 2020 through February 1, 2022 o First, fewer people received probation placements at the time of sentencing, especially in the early months of the pandemic. New probation starts fell by more than two-thirds in the summer of 2020. o Second, the number of people starting probation terms following incarceration (i.e. a “split sentence”) reached an all-time low, of 180, in April 2021. This is almost half the number of people one year ago. May 2021 Monthly Indicators Report https://portal.ct.gov/OPM/CJ-About/Homepage/CJPPD Page 1 of 4 Chart 2 - Criminal justice, monthly counts and flows Monthly Criminal Arrests 8,147 (8,255) May 1, 2021 Prison admissions 933 (1,044) THE COURTS Arraignments 1,692 (1,932) 16 (23) 103 (110) 67 (80) 747 (831) Federal /Other* No return from court 98 (102) Sentenced Pre-trial Probation 141 (144) Prisoners* Population* Violations Special Parolees* 5,491 (5,551) 3,004 (2,963) Release to Bond 355 (350) 324 (404) 946 (1,004) Prison Population*: 8,948 (8,966) DOC FACILITIES Pre-trial releases Releases & discharges 552 (668) 65 (81) Adult Discretionary Releases from Prison 219 (236) Probation 116 (86) 29,927 (30,142) 8 (13) 65 (61) 12 (22) 23 (25) 0 (0) 29 (21) 12 (17) 70 (77) Special Parole* 180 (210) 1813 End of Nursing DUI Home Trans. Parole/& ReF.* Trans. HWH* TS* (1814) Sentence home Confine.* parole* Parcom* Place* (EOS) 1 29 108 961 27 77 780 201 268 (351) (0) (25) (171) (897) (26) (78) (798) (224) 50 (54) 0 (0) 2 (0) 2 (4) 12 (20) 3 (0) 1 (1) 27 (25) 6 (6) SPLIT SENTENCE? YES Total remands to prison: 103 (110) NO 88 (141) 1,143 (1,542) 0 (0) 3 (6) 0 (0) 32 (63) 1 (2) 14 (26) 19 (24) 46 (54) 37 (90) Discharges (EOS) from Community Supervision 152 (265) Completion of Court Imposed Offenders Supervised in the Community by CT DOC*: 3,997 (4,033) Sanction Chart 2 contains monthly operations data for April 2021 and daily counts reported on May 1, 2021. Asterisks (*) indicate the daily count on May 1st. Figures for last month are enclosed by parentheses. Sources: Arrests – CRMVS, via CJIS, Court and probation data - CSSD, all other data - CT DOC. Chart 2a – Criminal dispositions - 2019 versus 2020 15,000 2019 2020 COVID-19 11,967 6,959 11,437 11,200 6,347 6,316 11,027 11,006 10,922 5,879 10,631 10,608 5,527 5,436 5,416 10,000 10,004 9,736 9,429 9,240 9,127 8,836 5,000 1,616 983 225 0 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC Over the past year, this space has highlighted the Reaching disposition is a critical step in the life of a criminal disruption endured and the adaptations made by the case. Cases originate, naturally, with an arrest and, with criminal justice system. One would be hard-pressed to rare exceptions, automatically initiate a court case, which find a more dramatic example than the volume of cases means that without a disposition, cases languish. Without disposed in Connecticut’s criminal courts. The chart swift action to creatively move cases forward, a massive above, depicts the number of monthly case dispositions bottleneck would have developed. in 2019 and 2020. In the first two months of 2020, dispositions were down 5% from 2019, a gradual The chart above is part of a relatively new deliverable OPM decrease. Emergency orders were issued at the exact is tasked with: an analysis of case-level decision-making in midpoint of March 2020, causing dispositions to halve. the criminal courts. Work is well underway for our second April’s numbers dropped 99% compared to the year prior. annual presentation to the Criminal Justice Commission, Adaptations ensued: Prosecutors and defense counsel scheduled for July 2021. We plan to delve much deeper amended procedures to dispose of cases collaboratively. into the cases disposed in 2020, examining the similarities Cases were heard remotely. By July dispositions and differences exhibited as cases were processed in reached nearly 60% of the prior year’s level. Through Connecticut’s courts. innovation, collaboration and hard work, dispositions reached 70% of 2019’s levels by year’s end. May 2021 Monthly Indicators Report https://portal.ct.gov/OPM/CJ-About/Homepage/CJPPD Page 2 of 4 Table 2 - First-of-month totals Board of Pardons and Paroles 2021 2021 2021 2020 % Change Mar. 1 Apr. 1 May 1 May 1 Monthly Annual Table 4 - Parole hearings, new cases DOC Facilities Granted: Granted: Federal/Other 118 102 98 111 -3.9% -11.7% Parole Paroles Prior Year Two Years Sentenced 5,668 5,551 5,491 7,961 -1.1% -31.0% Hearings granted Grant rate Prior Special Parole 344 350 355 319 1.4% 11.3% FEB 89 51 57% 53 83 Pre-trial 2,920 2,963 3,004 2,583 1.4% 16.3% Total 9,050 8,966 8,948 10,974 -0.2% -18.5% MAR 91 58 64% 70 71 DOC Community APR 103 74 72% 77 67 Transfer Parole 174 171 108 119 -36.8% -9.2% Table 4a - Other BOPP actions Parole/ Parcom Total 918 897 961 937 7.1% 2.6% Reparole Reparole Closed Special Transfer Parole 739 717 779 778 8.6% 0.1% from from interest parole parole Parcom @ CT 179 180 182 159 1.1% 14.5% revocation rescission cases cases cases Furlough 25 26 27 114 3.8% -76.3% Trans Placement 82 78 77 93 -1.3% -17.2% FEB 20 0 11 11 22 DUI/Home confine. 20 25 29 141 16.0% -79.4% MAR 20 0 27 10 25 Halfway House Total 801 798 780 732 -2.3% 6.6% APR 2021 10 2 14 10 27 Comm Release 381 372 375 330 0.8% 13.6% APR 2020 48 1 18 17 100 TS 8 11 5 13 -54.5% -61.5% Parole 126 125 128 105 2.4% 21.9% The pre-trial population Transfer Parole 22 20 19 9 -5.0% 111.1% Special Parole 264 270 253 275 -6.3% -8.0% Table 5 - Bond ranges for pre-trial detainees TS 258 224 201 550 -10.3% -63.5% Mar. 1, Apr. 1, May 1, May 1, Nursing home 0 0 1 5 - -80.0% Bond amount 2021 2021 2021 2020 Special Parole 1,877 1,814 1,813 2,134 -0.1% -15.0% Less than $20K 397 383 377 262 Total 4,155 4,033 3,997 4,825 -0.9% -17.2% $20K to < $50K 378 388 366 343 Table 2a - Monthly admissions, releases & discharges $50K to <$100K 476 474 504 482 2021 2021 2021 2020 % Change $100K or higher 1,887 1,927 1,998 1,648 FEB MAR APR APR Monthly Annual Persons w/bonds 3,138 3,172 3,245 2,740 Admissions Federal/Other 16 23 16 14 -30.4% 14.3% Over $1M 317 329 336 235 Remands 93 110 103 41 -6.4% 151.2% Table 5a - Pre-trial, weeks since admission DUI 3 0 2 0 - - Weeks since last Mar.