IAI COMMENTARIES 18 | 41 - JULY 2018 ISSN 22532-6570 © 2018 IAI 1 divides his time betweenRome, Italy and Harare, Zimbabwe. private and international organizations, including theUN, in many countries. He now Giuliano Maciocci hasworked asManager and Head of Corporate Support Services for What isless known, thankstoa Mugabe’s misdeedsarewell known. fast approaches. nation isholdingits breath asthevote of trepidation andhope, andthewhole electoral appointment with amixture 1991. Today, thecity islooking tothis certainly since I first moved there in hardship over thepastdecades,and a city that hasexperienced much throughout Zimbabwe’s capital, Harare, An aura of excitement can be felt their children andtheirnation. build abetterfuture for themselves, years in power, are today looking to as theyhave beenduring Mugabe’s 37 be overstated: Zimbabweans,patient The importance of theelection cannot bloodless coup inlate 2017. Gabriel Mugabe, wasdeposedina the country’s dictatorial leader, Robert crucial general elections, thefirstsince On 30July 2018,Zimbabwewill hold by Giuliano Maciocci Ready for aBrighter Future? Overcoming aDark Past, Is Zimbabwe report/2009/country-chapters/zimbabwe 141-147, p. 2009, in of 2008”, Events 2 WORLD/africa/01/23/zimbabwe.press/index.html 2002, January 23 in Sanctions”, Zimbabwe Backs “UK See, 1930s. the of Hitler during appeasement Britain’s with regime”, fascistic and a “racist of leader the as he described which Mugabe, of treatment Government’s UK the compared Lewis Julian MP Conservative Zimbabwe, on topic on the of sanctions of Commons 1 becoming primeministerin 1980, appeasing Great Britain, complacent media and a historically widespread intimidation andkillings. suppression of themediaand all but securedthrough asystematic since the1980s,yet his“victories” were and campaigned inmany elections four decades.Sure, Mugabe hascalled governing thecountry for close to Zimbabwe in1987while ruthlessly ever since,becoming president of election. Yet, he has remained in power Mugabe never won anotherdemocratic
During a 2002 debate in the UK House House UK the in debate a2002 During Human Rights Watch (HRW), “Zimbabwe. “Zimbabwe. Watch Rights (HRW), Human https://www.hrw.org/world- World Report 2009 World Report http://edition.cnn.com/2002/ 1 isthat since CNN World CNN , January , January . 2 . , Overcoming a Dark Past, Is Zimbabwe Ready for a Brighter Future?
Mugabe’s initial approach was cautious. pretence of helping its president, He moved to moderate his Marxist Joseph Kabila, during the Second rhetoric and worked to expand the Congo War, or encouraging “war healthcare and education sectors while veterans” (mostly unemployed youth) labouring for a sort of détente with the to carry out land invasions and the West to keep international aid flowing. violent seizure of “white” (second and third generation Zimbabweans) owned Eventually, by late 1999, widespread farms.6
© 2018 IAI corruption led international actors, including the World Bank and Destroying the agriculture sector, International Monetary Fund, to the country’s backbone,7 marked suspend all financial support to the the beginning of the end.8 Inflation country.3 With his finances under skyrocketed; basic foodstuff became strain, Mugabe called a referendum unavailable, living standards collapsed on a draft constitution that would and the rate of unemployed or have given him sweeping powers, underemployed people rose to more including the right to confiscate white- than 80 per cent by 2005.9 ISSN 2532-6570 owned land in the country without compensation. Held on 12-13 February The 2008 elections, rigged as they 2000, the proposals were rejected by a were, resulted in a loss for Mugabe’s 54.7 per cent majority, forcing Mugabe 4 to accept defeat. 6 See for instance, Samantha Power, “How to Kill a Country”, in The Atlantic, December The vote became a watershed moment 2003, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ in the history of Zimbabwe, leading to archive/2003/12/how-to-kill-a-country/302845; International Crisis Group (ICG), Zimbabwe: some of the worst abuses of the Mugabe Statement on Forced Evictions, 23 June 2005, regime. Fearful and humiliated, Mugabe https://www.crisisgroup.org/node/115. began to realize that his grip on power 7 In addition to agriculture, Zimbabwe is was slipping away. He thus resolved to rich in precious metals and stones. It is also the only country in Africa with deposits of protect himself. lithium (“Investors’ Verve for Lithium Know No Abounds”, in Africa Mining Intelligence, No. 419, To keep the army and his inner circle 10 July 2018), the basic component of batteries, technology’s stumbling block. However, the loyal, Mugabe resorted to all kinds of country lacks fossil fuels but new discoveries schemes.5 Some examples included by Eni offshore Mozambique coast might bring sending the army into the Democratic relief. See: Borges Nhamire and Paul Burkhardt, “Eni Finalizes $7 Billion Mozambique Gas Republic of Congo to loot under the Project Investment”, in Bloomberg, 2 June 2017, http://www.worldoil.com/news/2017/6/2/eni- 3 Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), Impact of finalizes-7-billion-mozambique-gas-project- Sanctions Against Zimbabwe, October 2007, investment. http://www.rbz.co.zw/assets/im_san.pdf. 8 “From Bread-Basket to Basket Case: 4 “Mugabe Accepts Referendum Defeat”, in Zimbabwe’s Economy in Shambles as Mugabe BBC News, 15 February 2000, http://news.bbc. Era Draws to an End”, in The Straits Times, 16 co.uk/2/hi/africa/644168.stm. November 2017, http://str.sg/4vMB. 5 Steve Grove interview with Samantha Power, 9 See “Zimbabwe”, in CIA World Factbook, last “Life in Mugabe-ville”, in The Atlantic, December updated 20 June 2018, https://www.cia.gov/ 2003, https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/ library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ archive/2003/12/life-in-mugabe-ville/303106. zi.html. IAI COMMENTARIES 18 | 41 - JULY 2018 18 | 41 - JULY IAI COMMENTARIES
2 Overcoming a Dark Past, Is Zimbabwe Ready for a Brighter Future?
party, the Zimbabwe African National her chance and began laying out plans Union – Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF), to to succeed her husband. the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC). However, neither Mugabe nor For this, Grace proceeded to build Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of MDC, a support group called Generation received more than 50 per cent of the 40 (G40), made up of ZANU-PF vote. A run off was scheduled but the politicians who support her candidacy violence and killings unleashed by against that of Emmerson Dambudzo
© 2018 IAI Mugabe on MDC members was such Mnangagwa, Mugabe’s former that Tsvangirai withdrew in protest.10 Minister of Defence (2009–13) and Vice Eventually, international pressure President. To prepare her campaign, forced a power-sharing agreement Grace convinced Mugabe to sack his whereby Mugabe remained President designated successor Mnangagwa, and Tsvangirai became Prime Minister, who maintains excellent links with the both with an equal share of cabinet army. She further forced the University positions. of Zimbabwe to grant her a PhD13 and made herself head of the party’s women ISSN 2532-6570 Having learnt his lesson in 2008, wing. Mugabe made sure the next elections, held in 2013, would come down in his During her rallies, Grace made favour. With the opposition virtually reoccurring threats against absent, the results were 61 per cent for Mnangagwa (known commonly as Mugabe’s ZANU-PF.11 “Ed”): “His head must be crushed”, she exclaimed during one speech,14 just By 2017, Mugabe, 93 years old and ill, days following Ed’s forced resignation began to lose control of the political as Vice President. Fearing for his life, process. His second wife Grace Mugabe Mnangagwa fled the country for South (known as “Gucci Grace” for her Africa on 7 November 2017. frequent shopping sprees abroad)12 saw On 14 November 2017, the Zimbabwe 10 “Zimbabwe: Morgan Tsvangirai Withdraws Defence Forces, led by Constantino from Poll, Citing Robert Mugabe’s Reign Chiwenga (who had returned from of Terror”, in The Telegraph, 22 June 2008, https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/ China only days before) entered Harare, africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/2175377/ Zimbabwe’s capital, and occupied Zimbabwe-Morgan-Tsvangirai-withdraws- from-poll-citing-Robert-Mugabes-reign-of- terror.html. zimbabwes-grace-mugabe-how-her-addiction- 11 See International Crisis Group (ICG), to-luxury-caused-her-fall-from-power. “Zimbabwe’s Elections. Mugabe’s Last Stand”, in 13 “Grace Mugabe PhD: Arrest Made Over ICG Africa Briefings, No. 95 (29 July 2013), https:// Corruption Allegations”, in BBC News, 17 www.crisisgroup.org/node/900; Blessing-Miles February 2018, https://www.bbc.com/news/ Tendi, “Why Robert Mugabe Scored a Landslide world-africa-43099361. Victory in Zimbabwe’s Elections”, in The 14 Ismail Akwei, “Grace Mugabe’s Final Guardian, 5 August 2013, https://gu.com/p/3hz5f. Showdown Cost Zimbabwe’s Vice President 12 See Guy Martin, “Zimbabwe’s Grace Mugabe: His Job”, in Africanews, 6 November 2017, How Her Addiction to Luxury Caused Her Fall http://www.africanews.com/2017/11/06/grace- from Power”, in Forbes, 18 November 2017, https:// mugabe-s-final-showdown-cost-zimbabwe-s- www.forbes.com/sites/guymartin/2017/11/18/ vice-president-his-job. IAI COMMENTARIES 18 | 41 - JULY 2018 18 | 41 - JULY IAI COMMENTARIES
3 Overcoming a Dark Past, Is Zimbabwe Ready for a Brighter Future?
the national television station, the Twenty-three candidates are running Zimbabwe Broadcasting Corporation for president, with the incumbent and other key infrastructure. From Mnangagwa billed as the favourite. The the outset, the military declared their main opposition party, the Movement goal was to quash those who wanted for Democratic Change is lead by to take advantage of Mugabe’s old age Nelson Chamisa, but has suffered from (an obvious reference to his wife’s the recent death of its charismatic machinations and ambitions). leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, and the
© 2018 IAI fractious party politics that ensued Loyal to Mnangagwa, Chiwenga did since. not move to make himself president, handing power back to Ed, who promptly Ed is a smart and pragmatic politician, rewarded him the Vice Presidency. A who will hopefully seek to erase his few tank shells could be heard during past association with the worst actions the night, but the following day, only a of the Mugabe regime through good tank and a few soldiers were patrolling leadership. He has already invited the corner between parliament and 46 countries, 15 organizations and ISSN 2532-6570 Second Street. Meanwhile, people were two eminent persons to observe the going about their business and an eerie upcoming elections.16 calm descended on the city. Free and fair elections are an Apart for the members of the G40, who indispensable requisite for the world were arrested soon after the military to start trusting Zimbabwe again takeover, there was no significant and invest in the country. After opposition to the army’s action. On so many years of decline, people’s Saturday 18 November, thousands took expectations are high: jobs, liquidity,17 to the streets of Harare and other cities, fighting corruption, fixing crumbling in a joyful, exuberant and peaceful infrastructure are among the primary demonstration to celebrate the end of demands. Both parties are aware of Mugabe’s repressive regime. Not A Coup”, in VOA News, 25 november 2017, https://www.voanews.com/a/zimbabwe-judge- Mugabe was treated with white gloves military-action-legal/4136259.html. by the army but forced to resign on 16 “Zimbabwe Invites West to Observe Vote for 21 November or face impeachment. First Time Since 2002”, in Reuters, 10 April 2018, Following his resignation, Ed returned https://reut.rs/2qksgRe. 17 to Zimbabwe and was sworn in as To compensate for the scarcity of US dollars, Zimbabwe’s Reserve Bank introduced, President on 24 November, promising in November 2016, “Bond Notes”. In theory, democratic general elections as soon these hold the same value of the dollar, but as possible: “I encourage all of us to in practice have given birth to a flourishing remain peaceful even as preparations black market while triggering inflation. Banks only allow the release of the equivalent of 50 for political contestations for next year’s US dollars per person per day (now reduced to harmonized free and fair elections 30). Queues form in front of banks daily. See, gather momentum. The voice of the “Zimbabwe’s New ‘Bond Notes’ Area Failing Fast”, in The Economist, 18 February 2018, 15 people is the voice of God”, he said. https://www.economist.com/middle-east- and-africa/2017/02/18/zimbabwes-new-bond- IAI COMMENTARIES 18 | 41 - JULY 2018 18 | 41 - JULY IAI COMMENTARIES 15 “Zimbabwe Court: Military Takeover Was notes-are-falling-fast.
4 Overcoming a Dark Past, Is Zimbabwe Ready for a Brighter Future?
these challenges. Yet, the electoral would do well not to miss this campaign has thus far focussed on opportunity. quick fixes and vague solutions. After 37 years of oppression, errors Zimbabwe is in a “Catch 22” situation: and neglect, Zimbabweans deserve a it needs to liberalize the economy chance to trace their own future. While to attract investments but needs fraught with challenges, the upcoming investments to liberalize the economy. general election may just signal a new
© 2018 IAI Therefore, international aid, grants, beginning for the landlocked African and loans will represent a key factor to country. kick-start the economy. That is why it is indispensable for Zimbabwe to be as 13 July 2018 transparent and democratic as possible.
Earlier this year, Ed delivered his pitch (“Zimbabwe is open for business”) at the World Economic Forum in Davos.18 ISSN 2532-6570 Various international institutions are ready to chip in to help breathe new life into Zimbabwe and Britain is considering readmitting the country in the Commonwealth.19
A revived Zimbabwe might bolster the whole region, especially now that South Africa is experiencing mounting internal challenges that have increased uncertainty while reducing the country’s regional clout. Recent talk of indigenization of the economy and ethnic cleansing are hardly the best way to create a favourable investment environment in South Africa. Many foreign investors, including South Africans themselves, will be looking north with renewed interest. Zimbabwe
18 Richard Quest and Sheena McKenzie, “President Mnangagwa: ‘Zimbabwe Is Open for Business’”, in CNN World, 24 January 2018, https://edition.cnn.com/2018/01/24/africa/ zimbabwe-president-emmerson-mnangagwa- davos-intl/index.html. 19 William James, “Britain Wants Zimbabwe Back in the Commonwealth, But Eyes July Election”, in Reuters, 20 April 2018, https://reut. rs/2JXbpNn. IAI COMMENTARIES 18 | 41 - JULY 2018 18 | 41 - JULY IAI COMMENTARIES
5 Overcoming a Dark Past, Is Zimbabwe Ready for a Brighter Future?
Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI) Founded by Altiero Spinelli in 1965, IAI does research in the fields of foreign policy, political economy and international security. A non-profit organisation, IAI aims to further and disseminate knowledge through research studies, conferences and publications. To that end, it cooperates with other research institutes, universities and foundations in Italy and abroad and is a member of various international networks. More specifically, the main research sectors are: European institutions and policies; Italian foreign policy; trends in the global economy and internationalisation processes in Italy; the Mediterranean and the Middle © 2018 IAI East; defence economy and policy; and transatlantic relations. IAI publishes an English- language quarterly (The International Spectator), an online webzine (Affarinternazionali), two book series (Quaderni IAI and IAI Research Studies) and some papers’ series related to IAI research projects (Documenti IAI, IAI Papers, etc.).
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