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Obama at Midterm: Grading on a Presidential Curve

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Obama at Midterm: Grading on a Presidential Curve OBAMA AT MIDTERM: GRADING ON A PRESIDENTIAL CURVE Gil Troy As President Barack Obama endures tough congressional midterm elections, Americans’ volatile national mood and their yearning for leadership could redeem his presidency — or at least win him re-election. The three presidents he most models himself on — Franklin D. Roosevelt, Bill Clinton, and Ronald Reagan — were shellacked in midterm elections before winning re-election — although another president with whom he is compared, Jimmy Carter, lost. History is not destiny. But there are leadership lessons Obama can learn from his predecessors. À l’approche des élections de mi-mandat qui s’annoncent très rudes pour Barack Obama, l’humeur instable des Américains et leur soif de leadership pourraient racheter sa présidence ou au moins assurer sa réélection. Les trois présidents dont Obama se réclame le plus — Franklin D. Roosevelt, Bill Clinton et Ronald Reagan — avaient en effet pris une raclée au scrutin de mi-mandat avant d’être réélus haut la main. Contrairement à Jimmy Carter, autre président auquel on le compare souvent, qui avait mordu la poussière. L’histoire ne signe pas tous les destins, mais Barack Obama pourrait tirer certaines leçons de l’expérience de ses prédécesseurs. he United States has travelled a long way from the remind us just how unlikely his victory was. Back in spring euphoria of election night 2008 to the crankiness of 2004, before his sensational Democratic National Convention T the 2010 midterm elections. Even President Barack debut, few Americans had heard of this self-described skinny Obama’s most ardent supporters agree that the turnaround guy with a funny name. And his name was so strange that the in popular support he has experienced has been dramatic, first time in 2004 President George W. Bush saw a Democrat vis- unprecedented, unnerving The Yes We Can candidate of iting the White House with an Obama button, Bush, genuinely 2008 who seemingly could do no wrong is now seen by mil- confused, peered close and asked, “Osama?” Moreover, no lions as the president who can do no right, leading a African American had ever been elected president, and at the sobered No We Can’t citizenry, many of whom have lost time, most people were quite sure that the Democratic nominee jobs, lost hope for the future and lost faith in the man who would be the first woman with a serious shot at becoming pres- seemed so promising as a leader just two years ago. ident of the United States, Hillary Rodham Clinton. Here is Barack Obama’s challenge. He is not only con- The fact that Obama nevertheless won, and that his vic- fronting two wars, one ongoing economic mess and count- tory triggered a national orgy of high-fiving and fist-bump- less other cultural, social, diplomatic, ideological and ing, among rich and poor, Republicans and Democrats, political crises. He is not only being measured against the Obamians and McCainiacs, blacks and whites, reminds us presidents who preceded him, some of whom are encased in that national moods are variable and that Americans in par- legend, setting stratospheric standards for any worthy suc- ticular are the ever-believing people, constantly searching for cessor. He is also competing against himself and the impos- salvation, perpetually primed to rally around a great white or sibly high hopes his election unleashed. now black hope. Great American leaders have always under- It is still worth remembering Barack Obama’s shining stood this addiction to redemption. That, frankly, was part of moment in November 2008, even amid soaring unemploy- Obama’s appeal and part of his plan. Obama surveyed the car- ment, the Afghanistan quagmire, Tea Party demagoguery, anger nage of the George W. Bush presidency. He could have con- over the deficits, anxiety about the new health care legislation, cluded then, as many are concluding now, that Americans fear of renewed Islamist terrorism and Fox News shout-show had lost their capacity to believe. Bush had become the pres- host Glenn Beck’s attempt to hijack the civil rights legacy of Dr. idential master of disaster, mired in Iraq, buffeted by Martin Luther King. The library of books published about Hurricane Katrina, mismanaging a teetering economy that Obama’s brilliant 2008 presidential campaign all serve to ultimately cratered just weeks before election day. POLICY OPTIONS 13 OCTOBER 2010 Gil Troy et Obama understood that particularly intense. During the transi- 1934 midterm elections, which Y Americans would respond to a mes- tion, Obama publicized the fact that Roosevelt and the Democrats cleverly sage that they could do better, that their he was reading up on Roosevelt’s turned into a referendum on Roosevelt best days were not behind them, that famous, transformative first hundred and the New Deal. Rallying around their America remained a land of promise. days. That tidbit boosted the sales of confident, creative new president, Obama successfully channelled Franklin Jonathan Alter’s book on the subject, American voters gave him a mandate for D. Roosevelt’s promise in 1932, offering The Defining Moment: FDR’s Hundred change. Nine new Democratic senators a New Deal to the American people. He Days and the Triumph of Hope. Alter were elected, giving Democrats 59 of the eloquently evoked John F. Kennedy’s returned the favour in his recent book, 100 senators, and nine new Democrats added to the already strong The three presidents he most models himself on — Franklin majority of 313 in the House D. Roosevelt, Bill Clinton and, believe it or not, Ronald of Representatives. By con- Reagan — were shellacked in midterm elections before trast, polls suggest, Obama achieving convincing re-election victories. and the Democrats in 2010 are working hard to hold optimistic vision from the 1960s of a The Promise: President Obama, Year One, onto the Senate and may not even New Frontier. He echoed Jimmy Carter’s writing a more than 400-page valen- secure a bare majority in the House. post-Vietnam and Watergate vows in tine to the current chief executive, 1976 of “I’ll never lie to you” and “Why sprinkled with admiring comparisons bama might learn by looking at not the best?” He updated and broad- between Obama and Roosevelt. O the 1938 midterm elections, ened Ronald Reagan’s appealing dream Beyond all this cozy Washington which shook up Roosevelt and the of a Morning in America, making it posturing, the comparison emphasizes Democrats. After Roosevelt won re- Democratic, liberal, multicultural. And, the sobering economic conditions that election in 1936 by strong margins like Bill Clinton in 1992, he became the greeted Roosevelt as well as Obama on too, he — and his fellow liberals — Man from Hope. In both the bruising their respective inauguration days, and overstepped. The New Republic called primary campaign against Hillary the soaring ambitions both Democrats Roosevelt’s re-election victory the Rodham Clinton and the general elec- brought to the White House. Obama’s greatest revolution in our political his- tion campaign against John McCain, chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, said a cri- tory. The liberal political writer Max the man became the message, embody- sis is a terrible thing to waste; indeed, Lerner rhapsodized: “Mr. Roosevelt is ing Americans’ dreams. By simply elect- Obama has governed by that motto. In now, as never before, a colossus ing Obama as the first African-American pushing through a health care reform bestriding the American world.” president, Americans could redeem bill, along with dozens of other signifi- Believing his press clippings, feeling themselves and their country, demon- cant reforms, Obama has revealed his overconfident, Roosevelt tried packing strating their open-mindedness, opti- desire to be the most consequential pres- the Supreme Court by adding one new mism, and faith in the future. ident since Franklin Roosevelt. justice for each justice over 70 years old, As Obama navigates through what Unlike Obama, Roosevelt was able to a maximum of 15 (from the tradition- is looking like a tough congressional- to shape more of a mandate for change al 9). Americans saw this as an affront to midterm election season for Democrats, in his first term. Both Obama and the Constitution, and the proposal he should remember that both the Roosevelt were blessed to succeed failed. Unbowed, Roosevelt then put his volatility of the national mood and the unpopular and failed predecessors. But muscle behind a number of challengers credulity of the American public could it has become clear that Obama basical- to conservative Democrats, especially in redeem his presidency or at least secure ly won a GO-George election, a Get the South, who had been fighting the him a second term. In fact, the three Out George W. Bush contest. His plum- New Deal. Again, Roosevelt failed. In presidents he most models himself on meting polls suggest that Americans addition, Americans struggled through a — Franklin D. Roosevelt, Bill Clinton are not looking for an updated New renewed economic crisis as the recession and, believe it or not, Ronald Reagan — Deal. Many of Obama’s reforms have of 1937-38 wiped out many of the gains were shellacked in midterm elections worried the public. Most dramatically, some had enjoyed thanks to the launch- before achieving convincing re-election of course, Obama’s challenge remains ing of the New Deal. On election day victories. the economy, stupid. For all his creativ- 1938, the Democrats lost seven seats in ity, despite many legislative accom- the Senate and a whopping 72 in the hile every modern president plishments, Obama is still saddled with House. W since Franklin Roosevelt has a listing economy and devastatingly Roosevelt learned from this deba- compared himself and been compared high unemployment figures.
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