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OBAMA AT MIDTERM: GRADING ON A PRESIDENTIAL CURVE

Gil Troy

As President endures tough congressional midterm elections, Americans’ volatile national mood and their yearning for leadership could redeem his presidency — or at least win him re-election. The three presidents he most models himself on — Franklin D. Roosevelt, , and — were shellacked in midterm elections before winning re-election — although another president with whom he is compared, , lost. History is not destiny. But there are leadership lessons Obama can learn from his predecessors.

À l’approche des élections de mi-mandat qui s’annoncent très rudes pour Barack Obama, l’humeur instable des Américains et leur soif de leadership pourraient racheter sa présidence ou au moins assurer sa réélection. Les trois présidents dont Obama se réclame le plus — Franklin D. Roosevelt, Bill Clinton et Ronald Reagan — avaient en effet pris une raclée au scrutin de mi-mandat avant d’être réélus haut la main. Contrairement à Jimmy Carter, autre président auquel on le compare souvent, qui avait mordu la poussière. L’histoire ne signe pas tous les destins, mais Barack Obama pourrait tirer certaines leçons de l’expérience de ses prédécesseurs.

he United States has travelled a long way from the remind us just how unlikely his victory was. Back in spring euphoria of election night 2008 to the crankiness of 2004, before his sensational Democratic National Convention T the 2010 midterm elections. Even President Barack debut, few Americans had heard of this self-described skinny Obama’s most ardent supporters agree that the turnaround guy with a funny name. And his name was so strange that the in popular support he has experienced has been dramatic, first time in 2004 President George W. Bush saw a Democrat vis- unprecedented, unnerving The Yes We Can candidate of iting the White House with an Obama button, Bush, genuinely 2008 who seemingly could do no wrong is now seen by mil- confused, peered close and asked, “Osama?” Moreover, no lions as the president who can do no right, leading a African American had ever been elected president, and at the sobered No We Can’t citizenry, many of whom have lost time, most people were quite sure that the Democratic nominee jobs, lost hope for the future and lost faith in the man who would be the first woman with a serious shot at becoming pres- seemed so promising as a leader just two years ago. ident of the United States, Hillary Rodham Clinton. Here is Barack Obama’s challenge. He is not only con- The fact that Obama nevertheless won, and that his vic- fronting two wars, one ongoing economic mess and count- tory triggered a national orgy of high-fiving and fist-bump- less other cultural, social, diplomatic, ideological and ing, among rich and poor, Republicans and Democrats, political crises. He is not only being measured against the Obamians and McCainiacs, blacks and whites, reminds us presidents who preceded him, some of whom are encased in that national moods are variable and that Americans in par- legend, setting stratospheric standards for any worthy suc- ticular are the ever-believing people, constantly searching for cessor. He is also competing against himself and the impos- salvation, perpetually primed to rally around a great white or sibly high hopes his election unleashed. now black hope. Great American leaders have always under- It is still worth remembering Barack Obama’s shining stood this addiction to redemption. That, frankly, was part of moment in November 2008, even amid soaring unemploy- Obama’s appeal and part of his plan. Obama surveyed the car- ment, the Afghanistan quagmire, Tea Party demagoguery, anger nage of the George W. Bush presidency. He could have con- over the deficits, anxiety about the new health care legislation, cluded then, as many are concluding now, that Americans fear of renewed Islamist terrorism and Fox News shout-show had lost their capacity to believe. Bush had become the pres- host Glenn Beck’s attempt to hijack the civil rights legacy of Dr. idential master of disaster, mired in Iraq, buffeted by Martin Luther King. The library of books published about Hurricane Katrina, mismanaging a teetering economy that Obama’s brilliant 2008 presidential campaign all serve to ultimately cratered just weeks before election day.

POLICY OPTIONS 13 OCTOBER 2010 Gil Troy

et Obama understood that particularly intense. During the transi- 1934 midterm elections, which Y Americans would respond to a mes- tion, Obama publicized the fact that Roosevelt and the Democrats cleverly sage that they could do better, that their he was reading up on Roosevelt’s turned into a referendum on Roosevelt best days were not behind them, that famous, transformative first hundred and the . Rallying around their America remained a land of promise. days. That tidbit boosted the sales of confident, creative new president, Obama successfully channelled Franklin Jonathan Alter’s book on the subject, American voters gave him a mandate for D. Roosevelt’s promise in 1932, offering The Defining Moment: FDR’s Hundred change. Nine new Democratic senators a New Deal to the American people. He Days and the Triumph of Hope. Alter were elected, giving Democrats 59 of the eloquently evoked John F. Kennedy’s returned the favour in his recent book, 100 senators, and nine new Democrats added to the already strong The three presidents he most models himself on — Franklin majority of 313 in the House D. Roosevelt, Bill Clinton and, believe it or not, Ronald of Representatives. By con- Reagan — were shellacked in midterm elections before trast, polls suggest, Obama achieving convincing re-election victories. and the Democrats in 2010 are working hard to hold optimistic vision from the 1960s of a The Promise: President Obama, Year One, onto the Senate and may not even New Frontier. He echoed Jimmy Carter’s writing a more than 400-page valen- secure a bare majority in the House. post-Vietnam and Watergate vows in tine to the current chief executive, 1976 of “I’ll never lie to you” and “Why sprinkled with admiring comparisons bama might learn by looking at not the best?” He updated and broad- between Obama and Roosevelt. O the 1938 midterm elections, ened Ronald Reagan’s appealing dream Beyond all this cozy Washington which shook up Roosevelt and the of a Morning in America, making it posturing, the comparison emphasizes Democrats. After Roosevelt won re- Democratic, liberal, multicultural. And, the sobering economic conditions that election in 1936 by strong margins like Bill Clinton in 1992, he became the greeted Roosevelt as well as Obama on too, he — and his fellow liberals — Man from Hope. In both the bruising their respective inauguration days, and overstepped. called primary campaign against Hillary the soaring ambitions both Democrats Roosevelt’s re-election victory the Rodham Clinton and the general elec- brought to the White House. Obama’s greatest revolution in our political his- tion campaign against John McCain, chief of staff, Rahm Emanuel, said a cri- tory. The liberal political writer Max the man became the message, embody- sis is a terrible thing to waste; indeed, Lerner rhapsodized: “Mr. Roosevelt is ing Americans’ dreams. By simply elect- Obama has governed by that motto. In now, as never before, a colossus ing Obama as the first African-American pushing through a health care reform bestriding the American world.” president, Americans could redeem bill, along with dozens of other signifi- Believing his press clippings, feeling themselves and their country, demon- cant reforms, Obama has revealed his overconfident, Roosevelt tried packing strating their open-mindedness, opti- desire to be the most consequential pres- the Supreme Court by adding one new mism, and faith in the future. ident since Franklin Roosevelt. justice for each justice over 70 years old, As Obama navigates through what Unlike Obama, Roosevelt was able to a maximum of 15 (from the tradition- is looking like a tough congressional- to shape more of a mandate for change al 9). Americans saw this as an affront to midterm election season for Democrats, in his first term. Both Obama and the Constitution, and the proposal he should remember that both the Roosevelt were blessed to succeed failed. Unbowed, Roosevelt then put his volatility of the national mood and the unpopular and failed predecessors. But muscle behind a number of challengers credulity of the American public could it has become clear that Obama basical- to conservative Democrats, especially in redeem his presidency or at least secure ly won a GO-George election, a Get the South, who had been fighting the him a second term. In fact, the three Out George W. Bush contest. His plum- New Deal. Again, Roosevelt failed. In presidents he most models himself on meting polls suggest that Americans addition, Americans struggled through a — Franklin D. Roosevelt, Bill Clinton are not looking for an updated New renewed economic crisis as the recession and, believe it or not, Ronald Reagan — Deal. Many of Obama’s reforms have of 1937-38 wiped out many of the gains were shellacked in midterm elections worried the public. Most dramatically, some had enjoyed thanks to the launch- before achieving convincing re-election of course, Obama’s challenge remains ing of the New Deal. On election day victories. the economy, stupid. For all his creativ- 1938, the Democrats lost seven seats in ity, despite many legislative accom- the Senate and a whopping 72 in the hile every modern president plishments, Obama is still saddled with House. W since Franklin Roosevelt has a listing economy and devastatingly Roosevelt learned from this deba- compared himself and been compared high unemployment figures. cle. He respected Americans’ constitu- to Franklin Roosevelt, the attempts to Obama can only look back and tional conservatism and from then on link Roosevelt and Obama have been envy Roosevelt’s experiences in the usually fought party rivals with more

14 OPTIONS POLITIQUES OCTOBRE 2010 Obama at midterm: Grading on a presidential curve subtlety and circumspection. The wowing and wooing the American enough human vulnerability to help brash, ambitious, statist progressivism people during his campaign against mourn, while displaying of 1935 and 1936, which produced the George H.W. Bush, many baby enough presidential steeliness to help New Deal’s signature program, Social boomers declared him their Kennedy, the nation move on. Security, evolved into a more cautious the first politician in a generation who Leaders, and particularly America’s creed, which the historian Alan could get hearts fluttering and hopes presidents, are defined by such moments. Brinkley labelled the end of reform. As soaring. Clinton also entered the George W. Bush may have won re-elec- a result, America’s would White House with great ambitions. But tion with the simple gesture he made in not follow the European model. Big the economy was too good, people the aftermath of September 11, when he Government, American style, offers a were too complacent, and he was too hugged a rescue worker while reassuring hybrid of safety nets and spurs within undisciplined to achieve what Obama Americans through a megaphone at a framework of capitalism, private has achieved programmatically. Ground Zero. Similarly, he may have property, sensitivity to budget deficits, Nevertheless, Clinton’s failed health derailed his presidency by floundering constitutional caution and occasional care reform, and his scattershot and not choreographing such a moment rhetoric against Big Government. After approach annoyed millions, triggering during Hurricane Katrina. the election, Roosevelt expected to a backlash. In 1994, the Democrats lost retire to his Hyde Park estate within eight Senate seats, 54 House seats and urprisingly, as president, Obama has two years, when his second term control of the Congress for the first S not yet shown an ability to trans- ended. However, the outbreak of the time since the days of Dwight form a moment of crisis into a defining Second World War led to a movement Eisenhower, 40 years earlier. moment, a lasting impression of effec- to draft Roosevelt for a third term, and Clinton was shell shocked. Few tive leadership. The man who saved his he not only complied, he managed the Democrats had expected a loss on such presidential campaign from being movement from behind the scenes. a scale. The day after the election, derailed amid revelations that his for- No one wants a Hitler or Mussolini Beltway Democrats seemed annoyed, mer pastor Jeremiah Wright was a racial to rise on the world scene and help indignant that the voters had dared to demagogue by delivering a historic Obama win re-election. But a chastened remove them from their congressional speech about race in America has yet to president can sometimes be a more baronies. Clinton, both agile and ambi- master a similar moment as president. effective president. Thus far, Obama has tious, retooled, shifting rightward, The BP oil spill, the Fort Hood massacre, been better at passing programs than even as he went into a tailspin. By April the failed terrorist bombing attempts on selling them to the American people. 1995, he was insisting plaintively, a jetliner and in Times Square all offered He is like an athlete racking up individ- pathetically, that the president was still opportunities that he failed to take. ual records without leading his team to victory. In the Many of Obama’s reforms have worried the public. Most second half of his first term, dramatically, of course, Obama’s challenge remains the Obama should go back to some of the fundamentals economy, stupid. For all his creativity, despite many legislative he mastered in the 2008 accomplishments, Obama is still saddled with a listing campaign. In running for economy and devastatingly high unemployment figures. president, Obama both tended to the grassroots and sang a relevant, noting that the Constitution Having used rhetoric so effectively dur- song Americans applauded. His presi- gave him relevance. Imagine, the ing the campaign, having redefined a dency has lacked both that common President of the United States having vision of liberal nationalism for the 21st touch and that lyricism, even as he has to insist that he is relevant. century, as president, Obama has been amassed an impressive list of programs surprisingly reticent to reprise that role passed and reforms introduced. hile Clinton’s return to the cen- even as Americans are yearning for reas- W tre, and to smaller, less ambi- surance during this time of crisis. he experience of Barack Obama’s tious, more digestible initiatives Clinton eventually won re-elec- T Democratic predecessor Bill helped him restore his presidency, the tion in 1996. Something else that Clinton also proves that a chastened turning point came shortly after his helped him immensely and may help president can become a more respon- plaintive press conference when a Obama too was his rivals’ utter impo- sive and popular leader. The excite- twisted domestic terrorist, Timothy tence. So far, the Republicans have ment Obama generated in 2008 McVeigh, bombed a federal building in succeeded in criticizing the President tended to make people forget just how Oklahoma City. Clinton, America’s but they have not found a leader who much excitement Clinton generated in empath-in-chief, emerged as a leader. seems able to take on Obama. The 1992. But when Bill Clinton started He struck the right tone, showing Tea Party rebellion and the rise of

POLICY OPTIONS 15 OCTOBER 2010 Gil Troy

Glenn Beck could help re-elect Barack watched it get worse, only to see the weakened by Ronald Reagan. The sin- Obama, making him appear the boom begin by 1983, in time for his gle most important thing Obama mature candidate once again. In 1984 re-election campaign. Reagan needs to do to secure re-election is 1996, the Republican Party gave then framed the cyclical upswing as keep his party united behind him, as it Clinton and the Democrats the gift of Morning in America, the vindication is. The single most effective thing Bob Dole, unintentionally smoothing of Reaganomics, and his revolution Republicans could do to weaken the way for Clinton’s victory. took off. Obama would be to secretly support This time around, the American some left-wing Democratic dissident, a bama may be banking on follow- economy has lagged longer than many , a Dennis Kucinich, who O ing the trail of a Republican pres- analysts expected. Still, even if it lan- could somehow hurt Obama in a pri- ident, Ronald Reagan. In his book The guishes for another year or year and a mary or two, thus puncturing his aura Audacity of Hope, Obama makes it clear half, as long as it recovers in 2012 of invincibility while forcing Obama that he watched Reagan carefully as Obama will have bragging rights and a to swing left and lose the centre. president and admired his leadership strong shot at re-election. From the start of his administra- abilities but not his ideology. During Of course, not all presidents who tion, Barack Obama’s presidency has the primary campaign, Obama infuri- endured midterm losses have experi- paralleled both Ronald Reagan’s and ated Hillary Rodham Clinton and her enced a comeback. The Democrats Jimmy Carter’s paths. Many Obama husband by praising Reagan as a trans- under Jimmy Carter lost 3 Senate seats critics see him replicating Jimmy formational leader, while suggesting and 15 House seats during the 1978 Carter’s ways, wooing America’s ene- that Clinton’s little policy Band-Aids midterm elections. Carter went on to mies, neglecting America’s allies, did not measure up. Like Obama, Rea- lose the presidency to Ronald Reagan, telegraphing weakness at home and gan entered the White House during a amid high inflation, high interest rates abroad. Obama, on the other hand, time of economic crisis and initially and the great humiliation America wants to be the Democratic Reagan, watched the numbers tank. pressing the reset button on Reagan’s dramatic assault on In pushing through a health care the Reagan Revolution, making Big Government first looked reform bill, along with dozens of government effective, relevant like a big flop. By late 1981 and other significant reforms, Obama and popular again. early 1982, Democrats were has revealed his desire to be the History is not destiny. criticizing the Reagan Recession Barack Obama ultimately will and anticipating that Reagan most consequential president since follow his own path. But there is and his revolution would be a Franklin Roosevelt. a reason why White House one-term wonder. library shelves are crowded with During the midterm elections of endured during the prolonged Iranian presidential biographies. Presidents 1982, Republicans lost 26 seats in the hostage crisis. Like Obama, Carter had a understand that there is much to be House. The stench of failure hangs meteoric rise from obscurity to the pres- learned by studying their predecessors’ over the Reagan White House, the New idency. Like Obama, Carter was a golden successes and failures. The record shows York Times claimed at midterm. With boy who had always succeeded at every- that historical forces make a huge dif- unemployment high, national morale thing he tried, until he entered the Oval ference, be it the state of the economy, low and the administration seemingly Office. And like Obama, Carter was a the actions of rivals or the moves of for- adrift, Reaganism was looking suspi- thoughtful, bookish, earnest do-gooder eign states. But each outside factor ciously like Carterism with the who found it difficult to reassure offers a president a leadership opportu- focused, class-bound anguish of unem- Americans that America’s greatest days nity. Successful presidents are not ployment substituting for the broadly were still ahead. lucky; but it does take great skill to turn shared pain of inflation. Two dumb luck into lasting good fortune, as Democrats, former vice-president ronically, the great liberal lion Ted Franklin Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan and and Senator John I Kennedy helped trigger the Reagan Bill Clinton frequently did. Glenn, defeated Reagan in presidential Revolution by running against Carter trial heats. colum- for the Democratic nomination in Gil Troy is professor of history at McGill nist David Broder and others declared 1980. In fact, in the last half-century, University and a visiting scholar at the Reaganism dead. the only presidents who have lost re- Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington, Ultimately, the resilience of the election races entered after being DC. He is the author, most recently, of American economy resurrected bruised by a primary battle. George H. Leading from the Center: Why Reagan’s presidency. The former actor’s W. Bush in 1992 was weakened by Pat Moderates Make the Best Presidents timing was impeccable. Coming on- Buchanan. Carter was weakened by and Ronald Reagan: A Very Short stage during an economic crisis, he Kennedy in 1980. And Gerald Ford was Introduction.

16 OPTIONS POLITIQUES OCTOBRE 2010