Company Presentation
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Company Presentation OCTOBER 2018 Cautionary Statement This presentation includes "forward-looking statements". Such forward-looking statements are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties, many of which are beyond AR’s control. All statements, except for statements of historical fact, made in this release regarding activities, events or developments AR expects, believes or anticipates will or may occur in the future, such as those regarding future commodity prices, future production targets, completion of natural gas or natural gas liquids transportation projects, future earnings, Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX, Stand-Alone E&P Adjusted EBITDAX, Consolidated Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, Stand-Alone Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, Free Cash Flow, future capital spending plans, improved and/or increasing capital efficiency, continued utilization of existing infrastructure, gas marketability, estimated realized natural gas, natural gas liquids and oil prices, acreage quality, access to multiple gas markets, expected drilling and development plans (including the number, type, lateral length and location of wells to be drilled, the number and type of drilling rigs and the number of wells per pad), projected well costs, future financial position, future technical improvements and future marketing opportunities, are forward-looking statements within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933 and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. All forward-looking statements speak only as of the date of this release. Although Antero believes that the plans, intentions and expectations reflected in or suggested by the forward-looking statements are reasonable, there is no assurance that these plans, intentions or expectations will be achieved. Therefore, actual outcomes and results could materially differ from what is expressed, implied or forecast in such statements. AR cautions you that these forward-looking statements are subject to all of the risks and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond the AR’s control, incident to the exploration for and development, production, gathering and sale of natural gas, NGLs and oil. These risks include, but are not limited to, commodity price volatility, inflation, lack of availability of drilling and production equipment and services, environmental risks, drilling and other operating risks, regulatory changes, the uncertainty inherent in estimating natural gas and oil reserves and in projecting future rates of production, cash flow and access to capital, the timing of development expenditures, and the other risks described under the heading "Item 1A. Risk Factors" in AR’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2017. Any forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date on which such statement is made and the Company undertakes no obligation to correct or update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. This presentation includes certain financial measures that are not calculated in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”). These measures include (i) Consolidated Adjusted EBITDAX, (ii) Stand-Alone E&P Adjusted EBITDAX, (iii) Consolidated Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, (iv) Stand-Alone E&P Adjusted Operating Cash Flow, (v) Free Cash Flow. Please see “Antero Definitions” and “Antero Non-GAAP Measures” for the definition of each of these measures as well as certain additional information regarding these measures, including the most comparable financial measures calculated in accordance with GAAP. Antero Resources Corporation is denoted as “AR” in the presentation, Antero Midstream Partners LP is denoted as “AM” and Antero Midstream GP LP is denoted as “AMGP”, which are their respective New York Stock Exchange ticker symbols. ANTERO RESOURCES | OCTOBER 2018 PRESENTATION The Size and Scale to Capitalize on the Resource Antero Resources Profile Antero Acreage SW Marcellus Core Ohio Utica Core Market Cap……….……........... $6.3B Enterprise Value….…………… $10.1B Corporate Debt Ratings……… Ba2 / BB+ / BBB- Stand-Alone Leverage……….. 2.6x Net Production (2018E)…....... 2.7 Bcfe/d Liquids................................ 130,000 Bbl/d 3P Reserves………..…........... 54.6 Tcfe C2+ NGLs(1)........................... 2,131 MMBbls Condensate......................... 131 MMBbls Net Acres………….…...……… 620,000 Core Drilling Locations………. 3,295 Hedge Mark to Market……….. $1.2B AR Midstream Ownership (53%) $3.0B Note: Equity market data as of 9/20/18. Balance sheet data, hedge mark to market as of 6/30/18. Reserves as of 12/31/2017. Enterprise value excludes AM net debt. See 2018 Guidance in Appendix. (1) C2+ 3P Reserves contain 1,318 MMBbls of C3+ NGLs and 812 MMBbls of ethane. Assumes approximately 31% ethane recovery leaving 1,808 MMBbls of ethane in the natural gas stream. ANTERO RESOURCES | OCTOBER 2018 PRESENTATION 3 Organizational Structure A $17B Integrated Natural Gas and NGL Business Sponsors(1) Public Sponsors(1) Public 27% 73% 58% 42% NYSE: AR 100% Incentive NYSE: AMGP E&P Enterprise Value: $7.1B Distribution Rights Enterprise Value: $3.2B (IDRs) Corp Ratings: Ba2 / BB+ / BBB- No Ratings 53% Public 47% NYSE: AM Enterprise Value: $7.1B Corp Ratings: Ba2 / BB+ / BBB- Note: Enterprise value as of 9/20/18. AR E&P enterprise value excludes $3.0 Bn of ownership value in AM and AM net debt. (1) Sponsors represent Warburg Pincus, Yorktown & senior management. ANTERO RESOURCES | ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE 4 Natural Gas Liquids Update: Leading Position & Strong Fundamentals 5 Leader in Leverage to NGL Prices Top NGL Producers in the U.S. 2018 Consensus C2+ NGL Production Pre-hedged Realized NGL Price ($/Bbl) 140 45% Pre-Hedge NGL % of Total Product Revenues (1) NGLs Generate 33% 40% 120 116 of AR Revenue (1) 2Q 2018 35% 34% /d) 33% 100 30% MBbl 80 25% ProductRevenues 60 20% Hedge - 16% 15% 15% 40 13% 13% ofPre 11% Consensus C2+ NGLs ( Consensus 11% 11% 10% 10% 20 % NGL 5% $26.35 $27.86 $23.69 $24.10 $34.88 $26.71 $28.87 $25.62 $24.39 $28.83 0 0% AR EOG RRC DVN APC* COP* OXY* MRO* NBL PXD Antero Delivers Highest Exposure to Rising NGL Prices Source: Bloomberg consensus, SEC filings and company press releases. Note: Volumes represent consensus as of 9/20/2018. 2Q 2018 realized prices are weighted average including ethane (C2) where applicable. Percent of 2Q 2018 total product revenues is calculated on a pre-hedge basis. (1) 2Q 2018 actual NGL revenue percentage based on unhedged revenue. * Denotes consensus inclusive of international NGL production. NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS 6 Rapidly Growing NGL Production Antero NGL Production Growth by Purity Product Natural Gasoline (C5+) IsoButane (iC4) 250,000 245,000 Normal Butane (nC4) Propane (C3) Ethane (C2) C3+ Production 200,000 C2 /d) 150,000 Bbl Total ( Total C2 Ethane 40,000 C3 100,000 C2 Ethane 26,500 C2 Ethane 17,476 nC4 50,000 iC4 C5+ 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E Guidance Target Target Target Target Note: Excludes condensate. See Appendix for further assumptions around long-term targets. C2 Ethane volumes in 2018 reflect adjustment for timing of ME2 in-service date from 6/1/18 to 10/1/18. NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS 7 Appalachia: Geographic & Infrastructure NGL Advantaged Permian, Rockies, Mid-Continent & Bakken Appalachia . Transport Y-grade for out-of-basin fractionation . In-basin fractionation and transport marketable . Severely constrained fractionation,Y-grade purity products transportation and NGL storage capacity . Sufficient fractionation capacity . Rapidly rising fractionation fees . Fixed fractionation fees . Midstream controls product destination and captures . Producer controls product destination and captures pricing uplift pricing uplift 31 BAKKEN/WILLISTON APPALACHIA Exports to Cornerstone Mariner East International MID-CONTINENT Markets ROCKIES Conway PERMIAN Mont Belvieu NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS 8 Ethane: Positive Frac Spread Driving Recovery Higher Ethane Prices Needed to Ethane price improvement exceeds change Incentivize Recovery in Basins Farther in natural gas on a gallon equivalent basis from U.S. Gulf Coast Natural Gas and Ethane Pricing ($/Gal) Ethane Production and Frac Spreads $1.00 $0.70 2,500 $0.90 $0.60 $0.80 2,000 $0.50 /d) $0.70 Mbbl $0.60 $0.40 1,500 $0.50 $0.30 $0.40 $ per$ Gallon $0.20 1,000 $0.30 $0.20 $0.10 500 ( ProductionEthane $0.10 2018 Gas Value: $0.00 Fractionation Spread ($ per Gallon)($ perSpread Fractionation -7% Y/Y $0.00 -$0.10 0 Henry Hub Gas ($/Gallon Equivalent) U.S. Ethane Production Mont Belvieu Ethane Fractionation Spread: (MB Ethane vs Henry Hub Gas) Source: EIA, Bloomberg NATURAL GAS LIQUIDS UPDATE | LEADING POSITION AND STRONG FUNDAMENTALS 9 Antero’s Ethane Exposure: All Upside Antero’s ethane has a natural gas pricing Antero’s balanced approach to ethane “floor” and purity ethane “ceiling”; increases sales results in 50% of contracts tied in ethane purity prices are all upside to purity ethane prices vs. natural gas value Ethane Revenue Uplift ($MM) Incremental Revenue +$0.10/Gal C2 price change = $40MM incremental revenue $350 Antero has no hedges in $305 $300 place for C2 volumes $265 $250 $130 $90 $200 $175 $150 $115 $100 $60 44 MBbl/d $50 55 MBbl/d 55 MBbl/d 35 MBbl/d 40 MBbl/d $0 1H 2018 2H 2018E 2018 2019E 2019E Actual Strip Prices Actual + Strip Strip Prices +$0.10 Upside $0.23/Gal $0.45/Gal $0.32/Gal $0.40/Gal $0.50/Gal Ethane sensitivity: +$0.10/gallon x 2019 production target x ~50% exposure to Mt. Belvieu = ~$40MM incremental 2019 ethane Revenue Note: Ethane prices reflect realized price to Antero and assume $(0.05)/gallon discount to Mt. Belvieu prices based on 2018 Antero guidance. 2019 volumes are assumptions only, based on ME2 in-service and an increase in de-eth capacity expected to come on-line in 4Q18.