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Raymond James Quarterly Global Energy Report for 3Q18

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Raymond James Quarterly Global Energy Report for 3Q18 Global Research Published by Raymond James & Associates Energy October 5, 2018 Industry Brief Pavel Molchanov, RJA, (713) 278-5270, [email protected] J. Marshall Adkins, RJA, (713) 789-3551, [email protected] Andrew Bradford, CFA, RJL, 403.509.0503, [email protected] Jean-Pierre Dmirdjian, Res. Analyst, RJEE, +33 (1) 45 64 05 46, [email protected] Energy: Energy Quarterly ________________________________________________________________________________________ Raymond James Quarterly Global Energy Report for 3Q18 This quarterly report aggregates energy research highlights from Raymond James & Associates as well as our international teams: Raymond James Ltd. (Canada) and Raymond James Europe. Quarterly Highlights Crude Oil After the 2Q “blowout” in the spread between Brent and WTI prices, the spread narrowed slightly in 3Q – with both benchmarks averaging at their highest levels since 2014. WTI’s $69.61/Bbl average rose 2% q/q, and Brent at $75.26 edged up 1%; the spread was $5.66, splitting the difference between $6.58 in 2Q and $4.08 in 1Q, though it widened back out towards the end of the quarter. We continue to see a supportive fundamental backdrop for the global oil market: the larger U.S. producers are exhibiting restraint in capital allocation; OPEC+Russia’s gradual unwinding of production cuts is being offset by declines in Venezuela and sanctions- related pressure on Iranian exports; there are still supply declines in several non-OPEC geographies; and the picture for global demand growth is broadly upbeat. See page four for details on our oil price assumptions, most recently updated in September to reflect a somewhat narrower Brent-WTI spread for 2019. Natural Gas In 3Q, Henry Hub bid week prices averaged $2.90/Mcf, up 5% q/q. There continues to be a tug of war between mostly positive demand trends but persistently high supply, especially from Permian associated gas. Industrial demand and pipeline gas exports to Mexico are bullish demand drivers, and LNG exports will become more needle-moving as four U.S. LNG export projects are due to start up between now and year-end 2019. On the other hand, the structural ramp-up in wind and solar is steadily restraining gas’s market share gains in the power sector – even without the longer-term threat that batteries will present to gas peakers. See page four for details on our gas price assumptions. Stocks The broader market was very strong in 3Q, setting a series of records towards the end of the quarter, as the relentless U.S.-China trade war headlines were more than offset by the tailwinds of strong corporate earnings and a predictable Fed policy. Following a 1Q decline of 1.4% and 2Q gain of 3.1%, the S&P 500 ended 3Q up 7.2%. Despite a solid end to the quarter, energy underperformed; the two broadest U.S. energy subsector indices, E&P and oil service, were up 0.6% and down 3.5%, respectively. That said, energy (on the whole) is on track to outperform the S&P for only the second year out of the past eight, the other exception being 2016. Energy’s market cap weighting within the S&P, currently 6.0%, is still near the lowest level since 2004. See page three for details on the performance of various energy indices. Please read domestic and foreign disclosure/risk information beginning on page 2 and Analyst Certification on page 2. © 2018 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 Raymond James Global Research Contents Stats of the Week ............................................................ 5 Global Research Highlights ............................................. 6 Exploration and Production ............................................ 7 Oilfield Services ............................................................. 16 Independent Refiners ................................................... 18 Renewable Energy and Clean Technology .................... 21 Canadian Oil and Gas .................................................... 29 European Oil and Gas.................................................... 32 © 2018 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 2 Raymond James Global Research Energy Indices vs. Broader Market - Trailing 12 Months and Quarterly Index Performance 40% TTM Performance Quarterly Performance 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% E&P Index S&P 500 Coal Index Clean Tech Index Oilservice Index Midstream Index Source: FactSet, Raymond James research Market Cap Weightings in S&P 500: Energy vs. Tech vs. Healthcare 30 Energy Information Technology Healthcare 20 % of S&P % of S&P 500 10 Current: 6.0% 0 Jan-96 Jan-17 Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-18 Source: S&P, Bloomberg, Raymond James research Oil and Gas Price Trends Front-Month Crude Oil and Natural Gas Futures Contracts 12-Month Crude Oil and Natural Gas Futures Strips January 2012 - September 2018 January 2012 - September 2018 $6.00 $110 $6.00 $110 $5.50 $100 $5.50 $100 $5.00 $90 $5.00 $90 $4.50 $80 $4.50 $80 $4.00 $70 $4.00 $70 $/Mcf $/Bbl $/Bbl $/Mcf $3.50 $60 $3.50 $60 $3.00 $50 $3.00 $50 $2.50 $40 $2.50 $40 Natural Gas (Henry Hub) Natural Gas (Henry Hub) $2.00 $30 $2.00 $30 Crude Oil (WTI) Crude Oil (WTI) $1.50 $20 $1.50 $20 Source: Bloomberg, Raymond James research Source: Bloomberg, Raymond James research © 2018 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 3 Raymond James Global Research RJ&A Oil Price Forecast 2018 Q1 18A Q2 18A Q3 18A Q4 18E 2018E RJ WTI $62.89 $67.97 $69.61 $70.00 $68.00 RJ Brent $66.97 $74.55 $75.26 $85.00 $75.00 2019 Q1 19E Q2 19E Q3 19E Q4 19E 2019E RJ WTI $70.00 $67.50 $67.50 $65.00 $67.50 RJ Brent $85.00 $80.00 $80.00 $75.00 $80.00 2020 Q1 20E Q2 20E Q3 20E Q4 20E 2020E RJ WTI $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 $75.00 RJ Brent $80.00 $80.00 $80.00 $80.00 $80.00 2021 (+) Long-Term Forecast 2021E+ RJ WTI $70.00 RJ Brent $75.00 Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Raymond James research RJ&A Henry Hub Natural Gas Price Forecast 2017 Q1 17A Q2 17A Q3 17A Q4 17A 2017A Actual Gas $3.13 $3.04 $2.93 $2.91 $3.00 2018 Q1 18A Q2 18A Q3 18A Q4 18E 2018E Bloomberg Consensus $3.03 $2.76 $2.90 $3.03 $2.95 NYMEX Futures $3.03 $2.76 $2.90 $3.13 $2.95 RJ Gas $3.03 $2.76 $2.90 $2.75 $2.85 2019 Q1 19E Q2 19E Q3 19E Q4 19E 2019E Bloomberg Consensus $3.12 $2.94 $2.96 $3.10 $3.05 NYMEX Futures $3.12 $2.65 $2.69 $2.76 $2.80 RJ Gas $2.40 $2.20 $2.10 $2.30 $2.25 2020 (+) Long-Term Forecast Bloomberg Consensus $3.01 NYMEX Futures $2.67 RJ Gas $2.50 Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, Raymond James research © 2018 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 4 Raymond James Global Research Stats of the Week In Case You Missed It… Here Is a Recap of All the Energy Stats of the Week from 3Q18 July 2: As U.S. Coal-Fired Power Falls, the Grid Can Adapt, and European Case Studies Show How July 9: U.S. Rig Count Set to Move Sharply Up Despite Potential Permian Oil Price Problems July 16: As Libya's Factions Fight It Out, This Is Yet Another Oil Supply Outage to Keep Us Busy July 23: IMO 2020 - How Bullish Is it for Refining and Will it Drive Crude Prices Much Higher? July 30: Raising Oil Price Forecasts for 2020 and Beyond - Higher Prices are Here to Stay August 6: Will Global Oil Demand Growth Stall in Response to Higher Oil Prices? August 13: Should Energy Investors Be Concerned About Fossil Fuel Divestments? August 20: What Are the Big Themes Energy Investors Need to Know for the Next Five Years? August 27: Three Years After Paris Agreement, Tech Drives Decarbonization, Regardless of Politics September 4: OPEC's African Production Has Declined 25% in Six Years, Why Doesn't the Market Care? September 10: U.S. Sanctions Working - Reducing Iranian Supply Forecast - Oil Model Now More Bullish September 17: CapEx Trend Shows That Russia Is Having to Work Harder For Its Oil Production Growth September 24: Permian Oil Diffs to Ease in 2019 As New Pipes, Debottlenecking Efforts Emerge © 2018 Raymond James & Associates, Inc., member New York Stock Exchange/SIPC. All rights reserved. International Headquarters: The Raymond James Financial Center | 880 Carillon Parkway | St. Petersburg, Florida 33716 | 800-248-8863 5 Raymond James Global Research Global Research Highlights In Case You Missed It… The List Below Highlights One Featured 3Q18 Report from Each RJ Energy Analyst Marshall Adkins: NOV: Strong 2Q Points Towards Sustainable Growth; Raising 2019 Estimates Andrew Bradford: BDI.T: Downgrading to Market Perform: LNG-Related Contracts Conditionally Awarded - We Expect More Chris Cox: ECA.T: 2Q18 Results A Solid Beat As Market Diversification On Display; Strong Momentum Into 2H18 Jean-Pierre Dmirdjian: GTT.PA: Initiating at Strong Buy: Underappreciated Play on LNG and IMO John Freeman: FANG: Model Update Following EGN Acquisition; Boosting Target to $187 Justin Jenkins: Refining Monthly Crack Check, August 2018: Time to Buy Refiners Ahead of Fall Turnaround Season? Jeremy McCrea: ARX.T: Upgrading to Strong Buy: Reading Between the Lines - More Growth and Liquids Upside Pavel Molchanov: XYL: Initiating With Outperform: The Supermarket of Water Tech Is Not Cheap, but Well Worth It Kurt Molnar: VET.T: Initiating with Outperform: A Castle Is Only As Good As Its Moat Praveen Narra: HAL: Transitory Issues Cause Near-term Softness: Valuation Suggests Fears Overblown J.R.
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