John Howard’s Australia and September 11 Ben Anwyl A thesis submitted to Victoria University in fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of Doctor of Philosophy College of Arts 30 November 2016 Student Declaration I, Ben Anwyl, declare that the thesis entitled ‘John Howard’s Australia and September 11’ is no more than 100,000 words in length, exclusive of figures, transcribed recordings of interviews and references. This thesis contains no material that has been submitted previously, in whole or in part, for the award of any other academic degree or diploma. Except where otherwise indicated, this thesis is my own work. Ben Anwyl 30 November 2016 ii Acknowledgements The completion of the research done in this entire thesis would not have been made possible without the ongoing support of so many people and I thank all of them. I would like to express special gratitude to my supervisor, Professor Robert Pascoe for his assistance, support and guidance. I am grateful also to everyone at Victoria University who have looked after me and helped me throughout. In particular I thank my co-supervisor, Dr Edward Lock, and Professor Phillip Deery for positive comments on the original manuscript and supporting the efforts of my supervisor. I would also like to thank and acknowledge Adjunct Associate Professor Rosemary Clerehan from Monash University, for assisting my supervisor with professional editing in the penultimate version of the thesis. I would like to express my appreciation to all the elite interviewees who gave up their valuable time and knowledge to assist me in doing this research project. A special thanks goes to all the postgraduates for keeping me on track and allowing me to represent them along the way. Thank you especially to all of my family and friends who have stood beside me so resolutely to allow me to undertake this project and to fully achieve it. I am forever grateful to all of you for enabling me to complete this work. iii Contents Student Declaration .......................................................................................................... ii Acknowledgements .......................................................................................................... iii Contents ............................................................................................................................ iv Abstract ............................................................................................................................. vi Introduction: The Why, the What, and the How of this thesis ..................................... 1 Chapter 1: Leadership and Foreign Policy Analysis ................................................... 18 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 18 1.2 The individual in International Relations and Foreign Policy Analysis ..................... 19 1.3 A conceptual framework of leadership ....................................................................... 23 1.3.1 How to recognise Greenstein’s elements of political style .................................. 28 1.4 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 36 Chapter 2: John Howard: From fatherless childhood to father of the nation .......... 38 2.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 38 2.2 The making of John Howard ....................................................................................... 38 2.3 The conservative tradition in modern Australian politics ........................................... 42 2.4 September 11 .............................................................................................................. 49 2.5 The traditional Australian state ................................................................................... 53 2.6 Reshaping the Australian state .................................................................................... 58 2.7 Conclusion: A Greenstein perspective on John Howard ............................................ 67 Chapter 3: Cognitive style and emotional intelligence ................................................ 68 3.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 68 3.2 Emotional intelligence and cognitive style: Howard .................................................. 69 3.3 Emotional intelligence and cognitive style: Howard’s peers ...................................... 88 3.4 Emotional intelligence and cognitive style: Observers ............................................... 91 3.5 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 96 Chapter 4: Vision and public communication.............................................................. 98 4.1 Introduction: Two further elements of leadership ...................................................... 98 4.2 Howard’s view of himself as visionary and communicator ...................................... 100 4.3 Views of Howard’s peers before 2001 ...................................................................... 107 4.4 Views of observers before 2001................................................................................ 108 4.5 Howard’s views after 2001 ....................................................................................... 119 4.6 Views of Howard’s peers after 2001......................................................................... 120 4.7 Views of observers after 2001 .................................................................................. 123 4.8 Howard’s views after 2003 ....................................................................................... 134 4.9 Views of peers after 2003 ......................................................................................... 140 4.10 Views of observers after 2003 ................................................................................ 142 4.11 Conclusion: Enunciating a vision; communicating it ............................................. 157 iv Chapter 5: Organisational capacity and political skill .............................................. 159 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 159 5.2 The views of the individual leader before 2001 ........................................................ 160 5.3 The views of peers before 2001 ................................................................................ 164 5.4 The views of observers before 2001 ......................................................................... 166 5.5 The views of the individual leader after 2001........................................................... 168 5.6 The views of peers after 2001 ................................................................................... 170 5.7 The views of observers after 2001 ............................................................................ 176 5.8 The views of the individual leader after 2003........................................................... 186 5.9 The views of peers after 2003 ................................................................................... 195 5.10 The views of observers after 2003 .......................................................................... 200 5.11 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 203 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................... 205 Bibliography .................................................................................................................. 213 v Abstract The literature on the performance of Australia’s centre-right government led by John Howard (1996-2007) has tended to underplay the role of September 11 in his electoral success. To win four terms of continuous government in the contemporary political scene is, however, no mean feat, ensuring Howard a place in the pantheon of celebrated conservative leaders in the English-speaking world. Our framework is the celebrated gestalt developed by Fred I. Greenstein to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of each American President. Based on a series of interviews with Howard, the inner sanctum around him, other players in the political scene, and expert commentators, this thesis interrogates the leadership of John Howard in Greenstein’s terms. Each of the six skills and attributes in the Greenstein typology is viewed in specific ways from the standpoint of the two dozen interviewees. In areas where Howard was in some sense or other deficient or lacking, his experience in government, notably September 11, had a positive effect on his capacity for leadership. This analysis serves to help us approach the central question of this thesis, namely, what is the role of leader in the formation of a nation’s foreign policy? This question has been debated in the International Relations (IR) field for several generations of scholarship, and is most closely associated with the name of James N. Rosenau. The case of John Howard in the reformulation of Australian foreign policy in the aftermath of September 11 is an example on the ‘yes’ side of the ledger in that important